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Negronic
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Originally posted by Rage Kinard

Head Fake - This can be very effective against defenders with LOW AGILITY AND VISION. Not even OR. It is AND. What do you think the base chance of that working against a defender with 70-80 agility and 65-75 vision is. Maybe a 2-5% base chance if you are lucky. So you move up to a 3.2 - 8% chance.

Juke - At least this one says it can throw off defenders especially those with low vision/agility. That means it can potentially work against players with high agility/vision, it just isn't likely to. It probably has a 4%-10% chance against defenders with those attributes. That is much better because that means it moves up to anywhere from a 6.4%-16% of working. If it moves you up from 8% to 12.8% it is worth it. However, what if it only moves you up from 5% to 8% is it still worth it? What if your base Juke chance is only 3% and it only moves you up to a 4.8% chance.


i'm not sure you are giving hf/juke its due. maybe those percentages might be accurate if it is PER TICK. speaking of ticks... these are a couple of plays from USA pro. this is an elusive back versus some level 55+ defenders. watch him break their ankles with hfs and jukes.

FS eats it:
http://ttt.goallineblitz.com/game/replay.pl?game_id=473804&pbp_id=11520377

Breaks the NT's, SS's, and RE's ankles:
http://ttt.goallineblitz.com/game/replay.pl?game_id=473804&pbp_id=11518262

Pretty much makes half the team look foolish:
http://ttt.goallineblitz.com/game/replay.pl?game_id=473804&pbp_id=11518127

And these are all from a single game (that the HBs team LOST, btw). Also, none of these are on STs so there is no additional 30% bonus to HF/juke/spin from Return Man.


 
burn_209
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3000 yards rushing




realism.
 
Rage Kinard
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Originally posted by Negronic
Originally posted by Rage Kinard


Head Fake - This can be very effective against defenders with LOW AGILITY AND VISION. Not even OR. It is AND. What do you think the base chance of that working against a defender with 70-80 agility and 65-75 vision is. Maybe a 2-5% base chance if you are lucky. So you move up to a 3.2 - 8% chance.

Juke - At least this one says it can throw off defenders especially those with low vision/agility. That means it can potentially work against players with high agility/vision, it just isn't likely to. It probably has a 4%-10% chance against defenders with those attributes. That is much better because that means it moves up to anywhere from a 6.4%-16% of working. If it moves you up from 8% to 12.8% it is worth it. However, what if it only moves you up from 5% to 8% is it still worth it? What if your base Juke chance is only 3% and it only moves you up to a 4.8% chance.


i'm not sure you are giving hf/juke its due. maybe those percentages might be accurate if it is PER TICK. speaking of ticks... these are a couple of plays from USA pro. this is an elusive back versus some level 55+ defenders. watch him break their ankles with hfs and jukes.

FS eats it:
http://ttt.goallineblitz.com/game/replay.pl?game_id=473804&pbp_id=11520377

Breaks the NT's, SS's, and RE's ankles:
http://ttt.goallineblitz.com/game/replay.pl?game_id=473804&pbp_id=11518262

Pretty much makes half the team look foolish:
http://ttt.goallineblitz.com/game/replay.pl?game_id=473804&pbp_id=11518127

And these are all from a single game (that the HBs team LOST, btw). Also, none of these are on STs so there is no additional 30% bonus to HF/juke/spin from Return Man.




Just wondering, but how do you know those are head fakes and jukes? Plus most of those the players weren't even near him. Even if it is head fakes and jukes, what did he get out of it? I'd take the extra speed/agility to keep them from catching me

EDIT: Sorry if I sound like an ass with that comment. I'm not trying to. I'm just curious. To me head fake and juke are only really valuable if they work on someone about to tackle you. Maybe it actually slows down the defender, but I personally don't see the benefit of a successful head fake or juke against a player who is 5 yards away from you, and I don't know how you determine that is what was going on.
Edited by Rage Kinard on May 20, 2009 23:04:23
 
Negronic
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you can see the defender's dot shrink with no blockers near him. since there is no blocker near those guys when it happens that means they were affected by a hf/juke. most of the time in those plays, the guys who get juked slow down substantially.

watch the SS on the 2nd play. its like he gets juked so bad he falls down on the field. otherwise he might have gotten to the HB in the backfield. before that, the NT penetrates into the backfield but gets juked. if that had been a speedy MLB that juke may have saved a TFL.

in the 1st play the FS got hf/juked 3 times in a row, taking him completely out of the play. if not for that then the HB would have gotten caught from behind by the faster FS.

those players were within a 5 yard radius of the ball carrier. any closer and you risk them getting inside their tackle radius.

the 3rd play is the epitome of hf/juke awesomeness. first the SS gets totally pantsed. he would have made the tackle early but got scorched. that is the perfect example of an epic juke/hf. at the same time, the ROLB gets taken out of the play with a hf/juke. either the SS or the ROLB could have ended that play but the hf/jukes slowed them enough to take them out of the play. after that, it is hard to tell if the CB got juked or pancaked first. my guess is a juke/hf since his dot shrinks before the TE makes contact. the FS also gets juked/hf and slowed down enough for the HB to get 20 more yards.

that is the point of hf/juke.

from Head Fake description:
"...causing them to go the wrong way or freeze... an extra split second of reaction time can mean the difference between a tackle and a big gain"

from Juke description:
"... this fake can badly throw off defenders... an extra split second of reaction time can mean the difference between a tackle and a big gain"


the whole point of my posts in this thread are to counter the current logic of player building. yeah, you can get retarded amounts of speed and agility, but the SAs don't get any respect. the HB in those plays isnt even that fast. he is getting caught from behind on a lot of runs. to me, that means that he sacrificed a fair bit of speed to get SAs. if that is the case, then the return man VA should amplify that effect on special teams.
Edited by Negronic on May 21, 2009 06:54:46
 
Negronic
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just to to rebut the "well i'd take speed and agility to outrun them rather than fake them only to get caught from behind later" argument that i feel coming.... there is no amount of speed and agility that would have gotten that HB away from the SS in the 3rd play i posted above. the SS would have gotten him without the fake, no doubt.
Edited by Negronic on May 21, 2009 06:55:25
 
PackAttack785
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Originally posted by Rage Kinard
Originally posted by Negronic

Originally posted by Rage Kinard



Head Fake - This can be very effective against defenders with LOW AGILITY AND VISION. Not even OR. It is AND. What do you think the base chance of that working against a defender with 70-80 agility and 65-75 vision is. Maybe a 2-5% base chance if you are lucky. So you move up to a 3.2 - 8% chance.

Juke - At least this one says it can throw off defenders especially those with low vision/agility. That means it can potentially work against players with high agility/vision, it just isn't likely to. It probably has a 4%-10% chance against defenders with those attributes. That is much better because that means it moves up to anywhere from a 6.4%-16% of working. If it moves you up from 8% to 12.8% it is worth it. However, what if it only moves you up from 5% to 8% is it still worth it? What if your base Juke chance is only 3% and it only moves you up to a 4.8% chance.


i'm not sure you are giving hf/juke its due. maybe those percentages might be accurate if it is PER TICK. speaking of ticks... these are a couple of plays from USA pro. this is an elusive back versus some level 55+ defenders. watch him break their ankles with hfs and jukes.

FS eats it:
http://ttt.goallineblitz.com/game/replay.pl?game_id=473804&pbp_id=11520377

Breaks the NT's, SS's, and RE's ankles:
http://ttt.goallineblitz.com/game/replay.pl?game_id=473804&pbp_id=11518262

Pretty much makes half the team look foolish:
http://ttt.goallineblitz.com/game/replay.pl?game_id=473804&pbp_id=11518127

And these are all from a single game (that the HBs team LOST, btw). Also, none of these are on STs so there is no additional 30% bonus to HF/juke/spin from Return Man.




Just wondering, but how do you know those are head fakes and jukes? Plus most of those the players weren't even near him. Even if it is head fakes and jukes, what did he get out of it? I'd take the extra speed/agility to keep them from catching me

EDIT: Sorry if I sound like an ass with that comment. I'm not trying to. I'm just curious. To me head fake and juke are only really valuable if they work on someone about to tackle you. Maybe it actually slows down the defender, but I personally don't see the benefit of a successful head fake or juke against a player who is 5 yards away from you, and I don't know how you determine that is what was going on.


So you have been telling people how to build returners yet you don't even know what juke/headfake do or look like?
 
PackAttack785
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Plus I'm tired of your bogus estimates on SAs. You have no clue, get over it.
 
roland1
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Originally posted by PackAttack785
Plus I'm tired of your bogus estimates on SAs. You have no clue, get over it.


Now I don't think that's fair.

He's no more estimating the use of return specialist than you are estimating the usefulness of your favorite SAs.

Boy, it would be fun to have a pair of guys, one built each way, on the same team sharing returning duties.

I bet they'd probably end up with about the same stats.
 
Rage Kinard
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Originally posted by PackAttack785
Plus I'm tired of your bogus estimates on SAs. You have no clue, get over it.


If my estimates are bogus, what are the correct figures? You have to make estimates on the effectiveness. Maybe mine are incorrect. What are your estimates? Do you have any? If you don't have any, then what do you do just assign something and hope it works?
 
Rage Kinard
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Originally posted by Negronic
you can see the defender's dot shrink with no blockers near him. since there is no blocker near those guys when it happens that means they were affected by a hf/juke. .



Then why does that happen to defenders at times when a HB, WR, or FB that has 0 in hf or juke is carrying the ball?
 
Negronic
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Originally posted by Rage Kinard
Originally posted by Negronic

you can see the defender's dot shrink with no blockers near him. since there is no blocker near those guys when it happens that means they were affected by a hf/juke. .



Then why does that happen to defenders at times when a HB, WR, or FB that has 0 in hf or juke is carrying the ball?


i'm not sure, but i dont think it is coincidence that a level 55+ FS falls down 3 times in succession against an elusive HB in USA pro with over 3k yards on the year.

 
PackAttack785
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Originally posted by Rage Kinard
Originally posted by Negronic

you can see the defender's dot shrink with no blockers near him. since there is no blocker near those guys when it happens that means they were affected by a hf/juke. .



Then why does that happen to defenders at times when a HB, WR, or FB that has 0 in hf or juke is carrying the ball?


I don't think you have to have the SA to fake, I'm not sure though. Probably a high carrying rating (as with HB, WR, and FB) makes it more likely.

Also I have no clue on the SA figures, but I don't try to bullshit them.

The point is I have seen HF and Juke be effective, and I have heard a lot of people say ST does not make that much of a difference.
 
70Chevelle
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Originally posted by Rage Kinard
Originally posted by YOM77

Perhaps. For me, I'd rather have a 100 speed/70 agility/65 vision CB with returner VAs and return specialist SA and a Head Fake or Juke AEQ.



Too slow and not enough agility.


(unless you are talking about a level 32 player)


LOL my level 49 return man doesn't even have 100 speed and he does just fine

IMO vision is greatly underestimated for return men

 
PackAttack785
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Originally posted by 70Chevelle
Originally posted by Rage Kinard

Originally posted by YOM77


Perhaps. For me, I'd rather have a 100 speed/70 agility/65 vision CB with returner VAs and return specialist SA and a Head Fake or Juke AEQ.



Too slow and not enough agility.


(unless you are talking about a level 32 player)


LOL my level 49 return man doesn't even have 100 speed and he does just fine

IMO vision is greatly underestimated for return men



IMO speed is overrated on a return man. Basically you need enough to outrun the defense once you pass the defenders. I think I might try topping it at 90-95 on my next player.
 
Mightyhalo
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speed, and some more speed, and a little more speed, maybe a little agility, then more speed.
 
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