PLAYOFF PICTURE AFTER 13 GAMES
Eastern Conference
#1 Jersey Mets (10-3)
Head-To-Head Records: 1-0 vs Montlake, 1-0 vs Palm Bay, 0-1 vs Madtown
Points-Allowed: 243
While Jersey has clinched a playoff spot, Jersey's final 3 games are all against the other playoff teams in the East, so they have an incredibly tough remaining path. If the Mets can win out, they'll keep the 1-seed. But if they drop even just 1 more game, they could drop as low as #3. Lose 2 or 3 more games, and they could fall to #4. Game #16 against Montlake will be key.
#2 Montlake Huskies (10-3)
Head-To-Head Records: 0-1 vs Jersey, 1-0 vs Palm Bay, 1-1 vs Madtown
Points-Allowed: 213
Montlake has clinched a playoff spot, and has a guaranteed win over Ohio next. If they can close out with wins over Palm Bay and Jersey, Montlake would finish #1. Lose 1 game, and Montlake still has a strong grip on #2 thanks to the points-allowed tie-breaker. Lose to both Palm Bay and Jersey, however, and #3 or even #4 become possible.
#3 Palm Bay Palookas (9-4)
Head-To-Head Records: 0-1 vs Jersey, 0-1 vs Montlake, 2-0 vs Madtown
Points-Allowed: 243
Palm Bay has clinched a playoff spot and has a path to #1 or #2, but they'd most likely have to win out and get some help. Dropping to #4 is also possible if they lose even 1 game down the stretch.
#4 Madtown Bucky (9-4)
Head-To-Head Records: 1-0 vs Jersey, 1-1 vs Montlake, 0-2 vs Palm Bay
Points-Allowed: 245
Madtown has clinched a playoff spot, and their earlier win over Jersey gives them an interesting wild card. Beat Jersey again, take care of business against Paris, and cash in their free win over Ohio, and Madtown could conceivably take #1. Drop 1 or 2 games, though, and they could stay down at #4.
#5 Paris Smexies (4-9)
Already eliminated from playoff contention
#6 Ohio Greens (1-12)
Already eliminated from playoff contention
Western Conference
#1 All The King's Men (13-0)
Head-To-Head Records: 1-0 vs 4th Street
Points-Allowed: 58
ATKM can finish no lower than #2. ATKM's next game is against 4th Street, so if the Kingsmen win, they clinch the #1-seed. And even if they lose, they only way they can slip down to #2 is if they also lose their last two games to Hood Rich and Adriatic, 4th Street runs the table, AND ATKM blows their 177-point advantage in points-allowed over 4th Street. That is not happening. It's safe to pencil in the Kingsmen at #1 right now.
#2 The 4th Street Gant (10-3)
Head-To-Head Records: 0-1 vs 4th Street
Points-Allowed: 235
4th Street can finish no lower than #2, but their only path to #1 is to win their 3 remaining games against ATKM, the Paladins, and Hood Rich in shutouts, plus ATKM dropping their last 3 games by 60 points each. It's safe to pencil in 4th Street at #2 right now.
#3 Hood Rich Dotballers (5-8)
Head-To-Head Records: 1-1 vs Adriatic, 2-0 vs Palm Bay
Points-Allowed: 446
Since Hood Rich has one more guaranteed win coming up from Game 14 with Sydney, I cannot find any scenario in which Hood Rich can be eliminated from the playoff race. However, since Hood Rich split their games with Adriatic and is currently 35 points behind Adriatic in points-allowed, Hood Rich needs to make sure they avoid tying Adriatic in the standings if they want the 3-seed instead of the 4-seed. That may be tough, since Hood Rich's final games are a gimme-win over Sydney followed by likely losses to ATKM and 4th Street to most likely finish at 6-10. Adriatic is highly likely to finish 6-10 as well, which would send it to points-allowed for a tie-breaker. So, either Hood Rich needs to tighten up their D in a hurry, or they need to find a way to upset either the Kingsmen or 4th Street, or else they'll likely finish #4.
#4 Adriatic Sea Wasps (4-9)
Head-To-Head Records: 1-1 vs Hood Rich, 1-0 vs Palm Bay
Points-Allowed: 411
Game 14 vs the Paladins is very important for Adriatic. Win that one plus Game 15 over Sydney, then assume a loss to ATKM in Game 16, and that puts Adriatic at 6-10 and in a likely tie in the standings with Hood Rich. Head-to-head is 1-1, but Adriatic has the advantage in points-allowed and would most likely jump to #3 in that scenario. However, if Adriatic loses to the Paladins, things get dicey. That would mean a likely 5-11 record for Adriatic and likely a tie in the standings with the Paladins, who currently hold the edge in points-allowed. That would put the Paladins at #4 and Adriatic at #5. For Adriatic, beating the Paladins is crucial for making the playoffs.
#5 Palm Bay Paladins (3-10)
Head-To-Head Records: 0-2 vs Hood Rich, 0-1 vs Adriatic
Points-Allowed: 394
The Paladins have only one realistic hope of making the playoffs, upset Adriatic, cash in their guaranteed win over Sydney, and find a way to reign in 4th Street's offense to keep their points-allowed advantage intact over Adriatic. Do that, and the Paladins take the 4-seed. Likely? Not really. Possible? Sure.
#6 Sydney Sharks (0-13)
Already eliminated from playoff contention
