The playoffs are going to be brutal. Whoever wins it will have earned it. Go Titans!
catspaw27
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Originally posted by joemalaka
I wouldn't give such a high confidence level to Brisbane over Carabao. You never know what Carabao might do in that game.
Wow, that was the most thought invoking thing I have read all day.
Perhaps they will use the punter as a down lineman. Or the RB in a nickel package.
Oh well, back to game planning. Man, I thought I had all the bases covered.
*reality* I think the game is a pick-em. Although I am encouraged by ballbright's "confidence level", my feeling is it will be close.
And if ballbright uses any analytical skills is this formula, then I would buy him a beverage of choice and raise a toast to him for contributing to the league.
I wouldn't give such a high confidence level to Brisbane over Carabao. You never know what Carabao might do in that game.
Wow, that was the most thought invoking thing I have read all day.
Perhaps they will use the punter as a down lineman. Or the RB in a nickel package.
Oh well, back to game planning. Man, I thought I had all the bases covered.
*reality* I think the game is a pick-em. Although I am encouraged by ballbright's "confidence level", my feeling is it will be close.
And if ballbright uses any analytical skills is this formula, then I would buy him a beverage of choice and raise a toast to him for contributing to the league.
killertoad
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I personally think you sir Ballbright...are a genius. Well Done.
Last edited May 28, 2008 16:00:42
Thorrig
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Originally posted by asabel93
No love for emerald city. We may not be the best but we have a good win streak and were never blown out by any opponent who is in the playoffs now.
I prefer to look at it in a slightly different way - by only having a 84.3% confidence level that New England will beat us (I say "only" because Brisbane over Carabao and Canberra over Auckland are both listed at 97.9% confidence) suggests that there's some doubt in Ballbright's formula/mind as to our game's outcome. Considering that that same formula/mind goes on to predict New England eventually winning the entire league - I take the formula's output to suggest that we SHOULDN'T be disregarded as a viable contender. Actually, it suggests that Vincennes, Fiji, and then Emerald City have the three best chances at upsets in the first round. In fact, if anyone should be crying out for receiving "no respect" it should be the other five teams the formula expects to lose as it seems extremely confident (95%+) that they'll fall.
Who knows, maybe I'm reading the formula's results wrong, but there's no shame in losing to a good team - especially if they run the table and take the championship. That said, losing to the Burning Pride isn't exactly Plan A...
No love for emerald city. We may not be the best but we have a good win streak and were never blown out by any opponent who is in the playoffs now.
I prefer to look at it in a slightly different way - by only having a 84.3% confidence level that New England will beat us (I say "only" because Brisbane over Carabao and Canberra over Auckland are both listed at 97.9% confidence) suggests that there's some doubt in Ballbright's formula/mind as to our game's outcome. Considering that that same formula/mind goes on to predict New England eventually winning the entire league - I take the formula's output to suggest that we SHOULDN'T be disregarded as a viable contender. Actually, it suggests that Vincennes, Fiji, and then Emerald City have the three best chances at upsets in the first round. In fact, if anyone should be crying out for receiving "no respect" it should be the other five teams the formula expects to lose as it seems extremely confident (95%+) that they'll fall.
Who knows, maybe I'm reading the formula's results wrong, but there's no shame in losing to a good team - especially if they run the table and take the championship. That said, losing to the Burning Pride isn't exactly Plan A...
Last edited May 29, 2008 01:07:45
Ballbright
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Originally posted by Thorrig
Originally posted by asabel93
No love for emerald city. We may not be the best but we have a good win streak and were never blown out by any opponent who is in the playoffs now.
I prefer to look at it in a slightly different way - by only having a 84.3% confidence level that New England will beat us (I say "only" because Brisbane over Carabao and Canberra over Auckland are both listed at 97.9% confidence) suggests that there's some doubt in Ballbright's formula/mind as to our game's outcome. Considering that that same formula/mind goes on to predict New England eventually winning the entire league - I take the formula's output to suggest that we SHOULDN'T be disregarded as a viable contender. Actually, it suggests that Vincennes, Fiji, and then Emerald City have the three best chances at upsets in the first round. In fact, if anyone should be crying out for receiving "no respect" it should be the other five teams the formula expects to lose as it seems extremely confident (95%+) that they'll fall.
Who knows, maybe I'm reading the formula's results wrong, but there's no shame in losing to a good team - especially if they run the table and take the championship. That said, losing to the Burning Pride isn't exactly Plan A...
"confidence level" isn't my confidence in the pick, it is rather a measure of how many standard deviations from the mean that the data holds true.
Originally posted by asabel93
No love for emerald city. We may not be the best but we have a good win streak and were never blown out by any opponent who is in the playoffs now.
I prefer to look at it in a slightly different way - by only having a 84.3% confidence level that New England will beat us (I say "only" because Brisbane over Carabao and Canberra over Auckland are both listed at 97.9% confidence) suggests that there's some doubt in Ballbright's formula/mind as to our game's outcome. Considering that that same formula/mind goes on to predict New England eventually winning the entire league - I take the formula's output to suggest that we SHOULDN'T be disregarded as a viable contender. Actually, it suggests that Vincennes, Fiji, and then Emerald City have the three best chances at upsets in the first round. In fact, if anyone should be crying out for receiving "no respect" it should be the other five teams the formula expects to lose as it seems extremely confident (95%+) that they'll fall.
Who knows, maybe I'm reading the formula's results wrong, but there's no shame in losing to a good team - especially if they run the table and take the championship. That said, losing to the Burning Pride isn't exactly Plan A...
"confidence level" isn't my confidence in the pick, it is rather a measure of how many standard deviations from the mean that the data holds true.
JuniorMcSpiffy
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Originally posted by tobias funke
NO RESPECT FROM THE MATH FORMULA
WHAT THE HELL
Math wants to take your lunch money, insult your mother, and call you mean names.
Math thinks you need to get out more and make more friends. You know... like real ones.
Math will make you squirt tears.
Math will make your teeth fall out. Wait... that's meth....
NO RESPECT FROM THE MATH FORMULA
WHAT THE HELL
Math wants to take your lunch money, insult your mother, and call you mean names.
Math thinks you need to get out more and make more friends. You know... like real ones.
Math will make you squirt tears.
Math will make your teeth fall out. Wait... that's meth....
Ballbright
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Originally posted by JuniorMcSpiffy
Originally posted by tobias funke
NO RESPECT FROM THE MATH FORMULA
WHAT THE HELL
Math wants to take your lunch money, insult your mother, and call you mean names.
Math thinks you need to get out more and make more friends. You know... like real ones.
Math will make you squirt tears.
Math will make your teeth fall out. Wait... that's meth....
OK, now that was funny....
Originally posted by tobias funke
NO RESPECT FROM THE MATH FORMULA
WHAT THE HELL
Math wants to take your lunch money, insult your mother, and call you mean names.
Math thinks you need to get out more and make more friends. You know... like real ones.
Math will make you squirt tears.
Math will make your teeth fall out. Wait... that's meth....
OK, now that was funny....
atm490
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Originally posted by Ballbright
There are those of you who think I'm an asshole, and that's fine; but I doubt anyone here (save a few idiots on the Bandit's team, yes Daman I'm referring to you) doubts the effacy of the formula I created, and its predictive powers.
"Effacy" is not a word. So I do doubt your formula's "effacy".
That being said, at this point, I have no reason to agree with or doubt your formula's "effectiveness" or perhaps "efficacy". Can you reveal the formula? Otherwise, we can only assume that these are random numbers...
There are those of you who think I'm an asshole, and that's fine; but I doubt anyone here (save a few idiots on the Bandit's team, yes Daman I'm referring to you) doubts the effacy of the formula I created, and its predictive powers.
"Effacy" is not a word. So I do doubt your formula's "effacy".
That being said, at this point, I have no reason to agree with or doubt your formula's "effectiveness" or perhaps "efficacy". Can you reveal the formula? Otherwise, we can only assume that these are random numbers...
Hellion1
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btw, how can you consider us, the Bearcats, having only one quality win?
that means that beating the Burning Pride and the Gods mean nothing? The best team in Zeta and one of the best in Alpha?
you probably only focused on inside conference matchups, but that's a mistake imo.
good luck Sea Turtles for the upcoming game.
that means that beating the Burning Pride and the Gods mean nothing? The best team in Zeta and one of the best in Alpha?
you probably only focused on inside conference matchups, but that's a mistake imo.
good luck Sea Turtles for the upcoming game.
BradyFTW
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Originally posted by Hellion1
btw, how can you consider us, the Bearcats, having only one quality win?
that means that beating the Burning Pride and the Gods mean nothing? The best team in Zeta and one of the best in Alpha?
you probably only focused on inside conference matchups, but that's a mistake imo.
good luck Sea Turtles for the upcoming game.
Not sure how he determined what a quality win is, but I assume it includes margin of victory. So, for the same reason that our victory over Canberra was not considered 'quality', neither was your victory over us.
btw, how can you consider us, the Bearcats, having only one quality win?
that means that beating the Burning Pride and the Gods mean nothing? The best team in Zeta and one of the best in Alpha?
you probably only focused on inside conference matchups, but that's a mistake imo.
good luck Sea Turtles for the upcoming game.
Not sure how he determined what a quality win is, but I assume it includes margin of victory. So, for the same reason that our victory over Canberra was not considered 'quality', neither was your victory over us.
Last edited May 29, 2008 15:56:33
bigpimpin123
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Originally posted by Ballbright
*Quality wins are defined as wins by more than one possession over teams that have a winning percentage of .667 or better.
*Quality wins are defined as wins by more than one possession over teams that have a winning percentage of .667 or better.
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