Warrior General Games

There are those of you who think I'm an asshole, and that's fine; but I doubt anyone here (save a few idiots on the Bandit's team, yes Daman I'm referring to you) doubts the effacy of the formula I created, and its predictive powers.

I ran the formula a few times to get some "good" playoff prediction results...here is my analysis of each team, and my playoff predictions.

Alpha:

Brisbane-- 15-1 overall; 7-1 vs. playoff teams; but only 1 quality win. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was +6.1 points.

Canberra-- 14-2 overall; 6-2 vs. playoff teams; 2 quality wins. Average score differential vs. playoff teams +6.5

Newcastle-- 14-2 overall; 6-2 vs. playoff teams; 1 quality win. Average score differential vs. playoff teams +3.6

New England-- 14-2 overall; 6-2 vs. playoff teams; 1 quality win. Average score differential vs. playoff teams +6.5

Emerald City-- 12-4 overall; 3-4 vs. playoff teams; 0 quality wins. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was -.25 points

Fiji-- 11-5 overall; 2-5 vs. playoff teams; 0 quality wins. Average score differential vs playoff teams was -3.29 points

Aukland-- 9-7 overall; 1-6 vs. playoff teams; 0 quality wins. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was -7.71 points.

Carabao-- 9-7 overall; 0-7 vs. playoff teams; 0 quality wins. Additional score differential vs. playoff teams was -18.57 points.

Round 1:
Brisbane over Carabao (97.9% confidence level)
Canberra over Aukland (97.9% confidence level)
New England over Emerald City (84.3% confidence level)
Newcastle over Fiji (50% confidence level)


Round 2:
Canberra over Newcastle (68% confidence level)
New England over Brisbane (34.1% confidence level)

Conference Final:
New England over Canberra (3.2 % confidence level)

Zeta:

Brisbane-- 13-3 overall; 5-3 vs. playoff teams; 2 quality wins. Scoring differential vs. playoff teams was +2.86 points.

Tongan-- 13-3 overall; 5-3 vs. playoff teams; 2 quality wins. Scoring differential vs. playoff teams was +5.0 points.

Rawle Tech-- 13-3 overall; 4-3 vs. playoff teams; 1 quality win. Scoring differential vs. playoff teams was +4.43 points.

The U-- 13-3 overall; 4-3 vs. playoff teams; 3 quality wins. Scoring differential vs. playoff teams was +5.57 points.

Vincennes-- 12-4 overall; 3-4 vs. playoff teams; 3 quality wins. Scoring differential vs. playoff teams was +1.43 points.

Nauru-- 12-4 overall; 3-4 vs. playoff teams; 1 quality win. Scoring differential vs. playoff teams was -7.14 points.

Las Vegas-- 11-5 overall; 2-5 vs. playoff teams; 0 quality wins. Scoring differential vs. playoff teams was -7.86 points.

IC-- 9-7 overall; 2-6 vs. playoff teams. 1 quality win. Scoring differential vs. playoff teams was -7 points.

Round 1:
Brisbane over IC (95% confidence level)
The U over Vincennes (34.1% confidence level)
Rawle over Nauru (97.5% confidence level)
Tongan over Las Vegas (99.9% confidence level)

Round 2:
Brisbane over The U (15.82% confidence level)
Rawle over Tongan (2.3% confidence level)

Conference Final:

Rawle over Brisbane (2.3% confidence level)

PRO Final: New England over Rawle (15.82% confidence level)

*Quality wins are defined as wins by more than one possession over teams that have a winning percentage of .667 or better.

* % confidence level is NOT the same as odds of winning, it is the confidence of the statement. It is the same as the level of confidence you would get from using the three sigma rule on a normal distribution.



Smack talk begins...........


...now

well, you are an asshole.

I wouldn't give such a high confidence level to Brisbane over Carabao. You never know what Carabao might do in that game.

hmmm the Gods are only 5-3 against playoff teams but we kind of just waited for the playoffs to come those last two. it hurts our numbers but thats ok. we prefer being the underdog

thanks for the post

Great post, thanks for taking the time to make it.

For the record, I don't think you're an asshole, I just don't agree with you on the Brisbane thing.

Originally posted by kevins4484
well, you are an asshole.

What trash talking. Master!

So what do you think the score of Brisbane vs. Carabao will be? Do you think Carabao can put a good gameplan against Brisbane? I personally think so.

I guess 20-17 with Brisbane winning in a tight one, and Carabao putting together a good D against Brisbane.

No love for emerald city. We may not be the best but we have a good win streak and were never blown out by any opponent who is in the playoffs now.

Originally posted by asabel93
No love for emerald city. We may not be the best but we have a good win streak and were never blown out by any opponent who is in the playoffs now.

Emerald City got a bad first round draw. It shouldn't be taken as a slight to your team, Emerald City is quite good, and if you'll note I was one of the first to champion their prospects, while saying that Aukland and Carabao were frauds...

For the love of god I hope you are right.

Originally posted by wombat killer
For the love of god I hope you are right.

if you want the love of the Gods you must say the Brisbane Gods will win it all

we love being the underdogs

Originally posted by wombat killer
For the love of god I hope you are right.

I'm not often wrong...

...of course there is a first time for everything...

Originally posted by Ballbright
Originally posted by wombat killer

For the love of god I hope you are right.

I'm not often wrong...

...of course there is a first time for everything...

Fuck, I didn't see the last part. I hope you are mostly right, but really wrong at the end.

Originally posted by Osidon
we love being the underdogs

so do we

there arent many favorites/underdogs in Zeta