There are those of you who think I'm an asshole, and that's fine; but I doubt anyone here (save a few idiots on the Bandit's team, yes Daman I'm referring to you) doubts the effacy of the formula I created, and its predictive powers.
I ran the formula a few times to get some "good" playoff prediction results...here is my analysis of each team, and my playoff predictions.
Alpha:
Brisbane-- 15-1 overall; 7-1 vs. playoff teams; but only 1 quality win. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was +6.1 points.
Canberra-- 14-2 overall; 6-2 vs. playoff teams; 2 quality wins. Average score differential vs. playoff teams +6.5
Newcastle-- 14-2 overall; 6-2 vs. playoff teams; 1 quality win. Average score differential vs. playoff teams +3.6
New England-- 14-2 overall; 6-2 vs. playoff teams; 1 quality win. Average score differential vs. playoff teams +6.5
Emerald City-- 12-4 overall; 3-4 vs. playoff teams; 0 quality wins. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was -.25 points
Fiji-- 11-5 overall; 2-5 vs. playoff teams; 0 quality wins. Average score differential vs playoff teams was -3.29 points
Aukland-- 9-7 overall; 1-6 vs. playoff teams; 0 quality wins. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was -7.71 points.
Carabao-- 9-7 overall; 0-7 vs. playoff teams; 0 quality wins. Additional score differential vs. playoff teams was -18.57 points.
Round 1:
Brisbane over Carabao (97.9% confidence level)
Canberra over Aukland (97.9% confidence level)
New England over Emerald City (84.3% confidence level)
Newcastle over Fiji (50% confidence level)
Round 2:
Canberra over Newcastle (68% confidence level)
New England over Brisbane (34.1% confidence level)
Conference Final:
New England over Canberra (3.2 % confidence level)
Zeta:
Brisbane-- 13-3 overall; 5-3 vs. playoff teams; 2 quality wins. Scoring differential vs. playoff teams was +2.86 points.
Tongan-- 13-3 overall; 5-3 vs. playoff teams; 2 quality wins. Scoring differential vs. playoff teams was +5.0 points.
Rawle Tech-- 13-3 overall; 4-3 vs. playoff teams; 1 quality win. Scoring differential vs. playoff teams was +4.43 points.
The U-- 13-3 overall; 4-3 vs. playoff teams; 3 quality wins. Scoring differential vs. playoff teams was +5.57 points.
Vincennes-- 12-4 overall; 3-4 vs. playoff teams; 3 quality wins. Scoring differential vs. playoff teams was +1.43 points.
Nauru-- 12-4 overall; 3-4 vs. playoff teams; 1 quality win. Scoring differential vs. playoff teams was -7.14 points.
Las Vegas-- 11-5 overall; 2-5 vs. playoff teams; 0 quality wins. Scoring differential vs. playoff teams was -7.86 points.
IC-- 9-7 overall; 2-6 vs. playoff teams. 1 quality win. Scoring differential vs. playoff teams was -7 points.
Round 1:
Brisbane over IC (95% confidence level)
The U over Vincennes (34.1% confidence level)
Rawle over Nauru (97.5% confidence level)
Tongan over Las Vegas (99.9% confidence level)
Round 2:
Brisbane over The U (15.82% confidence level)
Rawle over Tongan (2.3% confidence level)
Conference Final:
Rawle over Brisbane (2.3% confidence level)
PRO Final: New England over Rawle (15.82% confidence level)
*Quality wins are defined as wins by more than one possession over teams that have a winning percentage of .667 or better.
* % confidence level is NOT the same as odds of winning, it is the confidence of the statement. It is the same as the level of confidence you would get from using the three sigma rule on a normal distribution.
Smack talk begins...........
...now
I ran the formula a few times to get some "good" playoff prediction results...here is my analysis of each team, and my playoff predictions.
Alpha:
Brisbane-- 15-1 overall; 7-1 vs. playoff teams; but only 1 quality win. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was +6.1 points.
Canberra-- 14-2 overall; 6-2 vs. playoff teams; 2 quality wins. Average score differential vs. playoff teams +6.5
Newcastle-- 14-2 overall; 6-2 vs. playoff teams; 1 quality win. Average score differential vs. playoff teams +3.6
New England-- 14-2 overall; 6-2 vs. playoff teams; 1 quality win. Average score differential vs. playoff teams +6.5
Emerald City-- 12-4 overall; 3-4 vs. playoff teams; 0 quality wins. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was -.25 points
Fiji-- 11-5 overall; 2-5 vs. playoff teams; 0 quality wins. Average score differential vs playoff teams was -3.29 points
Aukland-- 9-7 overall; 1-6 vs. playoff teams; 0 quality wins. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was -7.71 points.
Carabao-- 9-7 overall; 0-7 vs. playoff teams; 0 quality wins. Additional score differential vs. playoff teams was -18.57 points.
Round 1:
Brisbane over Carabao (97.9% confidence level)
Canberra over Aukland (97.9% confidence level)
New England over Emerald City (84.3% confidence level)
Newcastle over Fiji (50% confidence level)
Round 2:
Canberra over Newcastle (68% confidence level)
New England over Brisbane (34.1% confidence level)
Conference Final:
New England over Canberra (3.2 % confidence level)
Zeta:
Brisbane-- 13-3 overall; 5-3 vs. playoff teams; 2 quality wins. Scoring differential vs. playoff teams was +2.86 points.
Tongan-- 13-3 overall; 5-3 vs. playoff teams; 2 quality wins. Scoring differential vs. playoff teams was +5.0 points.
Rawle Tech-- 13-3 overall; 4-3 vs. playoff teams; 1 quality win. Scoring differential vs. playoff teams was +4.43 points.
The U-- 13-3 overall; 4-3 vs. playoff teams; 3 quality wins. Scoring differential vs. playoff teams was +5.57 points.
Vincennes-- 12-4 overall; 3-4 vs. playoff teams; 3 quality wins. Scoring differential vs. playoff teams was +1.43 points.
Nauru-- 12-4 overall; 3-4 vs. playoff teams; 1 quality win. Scoring differential vs. playoff teams was -7.14 points.
Las Vegas-- 11-5 overall; 2-5 vs. playoff teams; 0 quality wins. Scoring differential vs. playoff teams was -7.86 points.
IC-- 9-7 overall; 2-6 vs. playoff teams. 1 quality win. Scoring differential vs. playoff teams was -7 points.
Round 1:
Brisbane over IC (95% confidence level)
The U over Vincennes (34.1% confidence level)
Rawle over Nauru (97.5% confidence level)
Tongan over Las Vegas (99.9% confidence level)
Round 2:
Brisbane over The U (15.82% confidence level)
Rawle over Tongan (2.3% confidence level)
Conference Final:
Rawle over Brisbane (2.3% confidence level)
PRO Final: New England over Rawle (15.82% confidence level)
*Quality wins are defined as wins by more than one possession over teams that have a winning percentage of .667 or better.
* % confidence level is NOT the same as odds of winning, it is the confidence of the statement. It is the same as the level of confidence you would get from using the three sigma rule on a normal distribution.
Smack talk begins...........
...now
Last edited May 28, 2008 13:46:19