Warrior General Games

Calculated Elo Ratings for the Oceania Pro League after final wk16 games...

Brisbane Bandits Alpha 129.4
New England Burning Pride Alpha 121.1
Canberra Strike Alpha 112.5
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 112.0
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 96.9
Brisbane Gods Zeta 93.1
The U Canes Zeta 93.0
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 87.7
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 75.4
Vincennes Vampires Zeta 73.3
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 71.3
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 62.8
Las Vegas Outlaws Zeta 61.1
IC Incinerators Zeta 23.0
Carabao Buffalos Alpha 17.4
Auckland Flames Alpha 11.5
Perth Scorpions Alpha -9.7
FFLivewire Cans Zeta -14.5
Aussie Cardinals Alpha -26.9
Big Island Growas Zeta -37.9
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha -41.0
Bermuda Pirates Zeta -49.5
Sydney Seahawks Alpha -53.7
Saipan Fighters Zeta -56.3
Outback Astronauts Zeta -75.6
Tasmania Devils Alpha -93.1
Sparta Spartans Alpha -107.6
Kiribati Blitz Zeta -109.9
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta -130.7
Midd-West Mustangs Alpha -140.7
Hollywood Decepticons Alpha -141.5
Leverkusen Tornados Zeta -152.9

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Predicted Win Probabilities for upcoming wk17 playoff games based on Elo data...

Brisbane Bandits Alpha 0.656
Canberra Strike Alpha 0.641
Brisbane Gods Zeta 0.599
New England Burning Pride Alpha 0.571
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 0.570
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 0.538
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 0.531
The U Canes Zeta 0.528
Vincennes Vampires Zeta 0.472
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 0.469
Las Vegas Outlaws Zeta 0.462
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 0.430
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 0.429
IC Incinerators Zeta 0.400
Auckland Flames Alpha 0.359
Carabao Buffalos Alpha 0.344

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Upcoming Playoff Game of the Week (top combined Elo ratings):
Emerald City Flying Monkeys (12-4-0) at New England Burning Pride (14-2-0)

Upcoming Playoff Game of the Week (closest Elo rating difference):
Vincennes Vampires (12-4-0) at The U Canes (13-3-0)

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caveats: This data is based on a data set of 16 points/team (games). Larger data sets are recommended for reliable trend/regression analysis.

Additionally, the different conferences were combined assuming that both conferences had identical overall conference strength.

notes: Elo "K value"=24, starting Elo rating of zero for all teams starting at season's start. "Actual results" - Win=1, Tie=0.5, Loss=0

Additionally, factors such as home field advantage, score margin, and team chemistry changes are ignored.

thanks again...

a note to Auha and the zeta conference....

good job on your win, but if we face you again, expect the score to reflect the game, unlike this time....

"TOTAL NET YARDS (auha)212.5 (pride)404.5 "

Thanks for all your work this season, man. Much appreciated.

Indeed, thanks for your effort.
I am curious to see how the power ranking differ though as they take into consideration close games and such.

Great job!

Originally posted by ALP
thanks again...

a note to Auha and the zeta conference....

good job on your win, but if we face you again, expect the score to reflect the game, unlike this time....

"TOTAL NET YARDS (auha)212.5 (pride)404.5 "

Thanks, we had a defensive TD and a punt returned for a TD so those don't reflect in the total net yards but part of the game none the less. Good luck in the playoffs.

Originally posted by ALP
thanks again...

a note to Auha and the zeta conference....

good job on your win, but if we face you again, expect the score to reflect the game, unlike this time....

"TOTAL NET YARDS (auha)212.5 (pride)404.5 "

Then one can look at the Special Teams and see the score DOES reflect the game...dont forget special teams....

The Pride has another uphill battle to fight. Regardless of the ELO I think we are going to have a very tough time with Emerald City.

same with the Gods against the Incinerators

Originally posted by bigpimpin123
same with the Gods against the Incinerators

And vice versa, looking forward to the insomnia this is gonna cause for game planning.

right back atcha...i myself have already found some juicy stuff

Originally posted by tobias funke
The Pride has another uphill battle to fight. Regardless of the ELO I think we are going to have a very tough time with Emerald City.


Lol, you bet your ass you are. I'm looking foward to the matchup. Watch out for Triton.

Originally posted by bigpimpin123
right back atcha...i myself have already found some juicy stuff

Not surprised really as I suspect I have my own (non-vocal) joemalaka on my team. :o

Don't think you are the only one doing your homework though, lol. I gained a little in our first meeting and much more in "game film". We may give you a tougher battle than the first go around.... at least that is the plan.

lol check that game out all you want...odds are this game will be completely different (not talkin about the result haha, just talkin about tactics)

Originally posted by ALP
thanks again...

a note to Auha and the zeta conference....

good job on your win, but if we face you again, expect the score to reflect the game, unlike this time....

"TOTAL NET YARDS (auha)212.5 (pride)404.5 "

*shrug* they beat us. Turnovers are as much a part of the game as yards are. Good win for them, and if we see them again I hope we have another hard-fought, good match.

Our backup QB threw 27 passes. He got picked 3 times. He won't smell the field during the playoffs.