Warrior General Games

Playoff picture: 15 games down, 1 to go
Clinch a win: 17 - WA - LB
Clinch a tie: 16 - WA - LB

Here's the playoff picture after 15 games for Canada A #2, with 1 game left to play.

The number in {brackets} next to each team is their "magic number." ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic_number_%28sports%29 ) Any combination of wins by your team or losses by the team you need to finish ahead of means you clinch a playoff spot.

EASTERN CONFERENCE
1 Puvirnituq Musketeers 15-0 [CLINCHED #1-SEED]
2 Winnipeg Wolves 13-2 [CLINCHED #2-SEED]
3 Antioch Inferno 12-3 [CLINCHED TOP-4] {1 for #3-SEED}
4 Quebec Quasars 12-3 [CLINCHED TOP-4] {2 for #3-SEED}
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5 Lancaster Hustlas 10-5 [CLINCHED TOP-8]
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6t Hamilton Lightning 9-6 {1 for TOP-8} {2 for #6}
6t Lincoln Lucky 9-6 {1 for TOP-8} {2 for #6}
6t Halifax Fighting Irish 9-6 {1 for TOP-8} {2 for #6}
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9 Niagara Assassins 8-7 {3 for TOP-8}
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10 Nova Scotia Snakes 6-9 [ELIMINATED]
11 S.W.O. Swamp Donkeys 5-10 [ELIMINATED]
12 Blitzkrieg Bandits 5-10 [ELIMINATED]
13 Toronto Bobcats 4-11 [ELIMINATED]
14 Yellowknife Rented Mules 2-13 [ELIMINATED]
15 Canadian Military 1-14 [ELIMINATED]
16 Sacramento Terror 0-15 [ELIMINATED]

Puvirnituq and Winnipeg have clinched the #1 and #2 seeds in the East.

Antioch has clinched home-field for the first round of the playoffs.

Lancaster has clinched a playoff spot.

Although Antioch holds the #3 seed right now, they'll probably drop to #4 due to their season finale being against 14-1 Port Moody, while Quebec's finale is against the 2-13 Saskatchewan Limas. If Antioch loses and Quebec wins, that will push Quebec to #3 and Antioch to #4. But if Antioch pulls off the miracle and upsets Port Moody, they'll lock in #3 because they own the tie-breaker over Quebec.

With Lancaster's finale against 8-7 Westwood, they'll probably win to lock in #5, so I'm going to make my job easier and ignore the possible ties they could get into with the 9-6 teams. But keep in mind Lancaster has lost to both Hamilton and Halifax, so a Lancaster loss means they could drop as far as #7.

Lincoln defeated Hamilton! That's huge, because it sets up a 3-way win-loop between Hamilton, Lincoln and Halifax.

Niagara's win means they're still in the hunt as well, but they're on the outside looking in. First, they need to win their season finale -- against 12-3 Gaffney. Not likely. And because they've lost to Hamilton and Lincoln, they would need to get into a head-to-head tie-breaker with Halifax to sneak in at #8, since they own the tie-breaker against Halifax. But that would require Halifax to lose -- to the 5-10 BK Thunderbirds. Again, not likely.

Hamilton's finale is against the 8-7 Québec City Dirtbags. That's a toss-up.

Lincoln's finale is against 12-3 Listowel. Lincoln will probably lose that one.

If Halifax wins and Lincoln loses, Halifax will be 10-6 and Lincoln will be 9-7. Let's assume those both happen.

From there... if Hamilton wins, Hamilton will finish 10-6. Hamilton owns the tie-breaker over Halifax, so it would be #6 Hamilton, #7 Halifax, #8 Lincoln.

But if Hamilton loses, Hamilton will finish 9-7. And Lincoln owns the tie-breaker over Hamilton, so it would be #6 Halifax, #7 Lincoln, #8 Hamilton.

So it looks like both Halifax and Lincoln are going to be rooting for the Dirtbags.

And of course if an upset happens, everything will go pear-shaped. But I'm not going to look into any of those scenarios, because I don't get paid for this shit.

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WESTERN CONFERENCE
1 Port Moody Megalodon 14-1 [CLINCHED #1-SEED]
2 Listowel Huskies 12-3 [CLINCHED TOP-6] {1 for #2-SEED}
3 Laval Lumberjacks 12-3 [CLINCHED TOP-6] {1 for #3-SEED} {2 for #2-SEED}
4 Gaffney Indians 12-3 [CLINCHED TOP-6] {1 for #4-SEED} {2 for #3-SEED} {3 for #2-SEED}
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5 Tradewest Battletoads 11-4 [CLINCHED TOP-6] {1 for #5-SEED} {2 for #4-SEED}
6 Ogopogo Lake Monsters 11-4 [CLINCHED TOP-6] {2 for #5-SEED}
7 Québec City Dirtbags 8-7 [CLINCHED #7-SEED]
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8 Westwood Bruins 8-7 {1 for #8-SEED}
9 Saskatchewan Wolf Pack 7-8 {2 for #8-SEED}
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10 Memphis Maulers 6-9 [ELIMINATED]
11 Grise Fjord Carats 6-9 [ELIMINATED]
12 Thunder Bay Titans 5-10 [ELIMINATED]
13 B.K. Thunderbirds 5-10 [ELIMINATED]
14 Saskatchewan Limas 2-13 [ELIMINATED]
15 Bologna Towers 1-14 [ELIMINATED]
16 Arctic Circle Jerks 0-15 [ELIMINATED]

Port Moody has clinched the #1 seed in the West.

Memphis, Grise Fjord and Thunder Bay have all finally been officially eliminated.

Everything else is tricky.

If Listowel wins, they'll clinch the #2-seed. They own the tie-breakers over both Laval and Gaffney. Listowel's finale is against 9-6 Lincoln, probably a win but not a gimme.

Laval has a gimme against 5-10 SWO and owns the tie-breaker over Gaffney. A Laval win locks them in at #3, and if Listowel gets upset, Laval can take #2.

Gaffney's finale is against 8-7 Niagara, probably a win but not a gimme. A Gaffney win locks them in at #4, and they can move higher if Listowel and/or Laval gets upset.

Tradewest owns the tie-breaker over Ogopogo and has a gimme against 4-11 Toronto for their finale. Tradewest will finish no lower than the 5-seed, but no higher. The only team they've defeated above them is Laval, and Laval's finale is a gimme against 5-10 SWO.

Ogopogo has a gimme over the 1-14 Canadian Military for their finale and is already locked in at #6, win or loss. But to take #5, Tradewest would need to be upset. Ogopogo actually also owns tie-breakers over Listowel and Laval, but those would only matter if those teams get upset, which is not likely. Ink in Ogopogo at #6.

At 7, 8 and 9, Quebec City, Westwood and Saskatchewan all have finales against fairly evenly-matched teams. Quebec City draws 9-6 Hamilton, Westwood draw 10-5 Lancaster, and Saskatchewan draws 5-10 Blitzkrieg. Those games are all toss-ups, so let's look at what each team needs to win.

Quebec owns the tie-breakers over both Westwood and Sasky. That means that no matter what happens, they've clinched #7. They would win a head-to-head tie with either Westwood or Sasky, and they would also win a 3-way tie. Ink in Quebec in the #7 seed.

That just leaves the #8-seed. Westwood has the better record, but Saskatchewan actually owns the tie-breaker! If Westwood knocks off 10-5 Lancaster, they'll clinch #8. If Westwood loses, they'll need Sasky to lose to 5-10 Blitzkrieg. From Sasky's perspective, they need a win over Blitzkrieg and Westwood losing to Lancaster to take the #8 seed. Looking at the probabilities here, I think Sasky has the better chance of finishing #8.

I think this overtakes the previous "best GLB post ever" award

Great read, and cant say i disagree with much apart from the apparent.

You sure your not getting paid?

Ain't nothin but a G thang baaaby

Good luck to everybody in the playoffs.

Originally posted by cordes72
Good luck to everybody in the playoffs.

+1

I know we've been a disappointment this year; we had our DC disappear for some early games and it cost us some close ones. No excuses though; we should have won some close ones and didn't because we were just outplayed. We'll be bringing all we got this game; we want to put the pressure on Westwood. Regardless of the outcome, its been another classy year and I enjoyed being a part of such a competitive yet mature league. Best of luck to you all.

Ro (of Saskatchewan)

Originally posted by Novus
With Lancaster's finale against 8-7 Westwood, they'll probably win to lock in #5, so I'm going to make my job easier and ignore the possible ties they could get into with the 9-6 teams. But keep in mind Lancaster has lost to both Hamilton and Halifax, so a Lancaster loss means they could drop as far as #7.

Westwood draw 10-5 Lancaster, and Saskatchewan draws 5-10 Blitzkrieg. Those games are all toss-ups, so let's look at what each team needs to win.

That just leaves the #8-seed. Westwood has the better record, but Saskatchewan actually owns the tie-breaker! If Westwood knocks off 10-5 Lancaster, they'll clinch #8. If Westwood loses, they'll need Sasky to lose to 5-10 Blitzkrieg. From Sasky's perspective, they need a win over Blitzkrieg and Westwood losing to Lancaster to take the #8 seed. Looking at the probabilities here, I think Sasky has the better chance of finishing #8.

Westwood is the Washington Redskins of Canada A2. They have tons of talent all across the board; but IMO they are the most underperforming team in the league. They should have been top 3. Lancaster has had its roster problems, but great management brought in some new talent and kept this team alive. I think this is the game of the week; a modern day David v Goliath. Lancaster has more than just rock and sling in their playbook, though. This week, David's got some missiles.

Oh, and Novus, fantastic job. You really went all out this week. I like how you posted for several weeks heading into playoffs, just like you did last year. But saving the gold for the final post was a brilliant idea. Building up anticipation, saving some time and energy for yourself and developing your spreadsheet; then posting your big finale. I'm a fan. Thank you.

Originally posted by stromstarhammer
Originally posted by Novus

With Lancaster's finale against 8-7 Westwood, they'll probably win to lock in #5, so I'm going to make my job easier and ignore the possible ties they could get into with the 9-6 teams. But keep in mind Lancaster has lost to both Hamilton and Halifax, so a Lancaster loss means they could drop as far as #7.

Westwood draw 10-5 Lancaster, and Saskatchewan draws 5-10 Blitzkrieg. Those games are all toss-ups, so let's look at what each team needs to win.

That just leaves the #8-seed. Westwood has the better record, but Saskatchewan actually owns the tie-breaker! If Westwood knocks off 10-5 Lancaster, they'll clinch #8. If Westwood loses, they'll need Sasky to lose to 5-10 Blitzkrieg. From Sasky's perspective, they need a win over Blitzkrieg and Westwood losing to Lancaster to take the #8 seed. Looking at the probabilities here, I think Sasky has the better chance of finishing #8.

Westwood is the Washington Redskins of Canada A2. They have tons of talent all across the board; but IMO they are the most underperforming team in the league. They should have been top 3. Lancaster has had its roster problems, but great management brought in some new talent and kept this team alive. I think this is the game of the week; a modern day David v Goliath. Lancaster has more than just rock and sling in their playbook, though. This week, David's got some missiles.

Oh, and Novus, fantastic job. You really went all out this week. I like how you posted for several weeks heading into playoffs, just like you did last year. But saving the gold for the final post was a brilliant idea. Building up anticipation, saving some time and energy for yourself and developing your spreadsheet; then posting your big finale. I'm a fan. Thank you.

dont forget we beat the wolves :-) and i didnt even get to see you and the rest predict my team to lose... but its cool no worries...lol

I didn't even realize there was a Wolves Hustlas matchup; I was so enthralled with the Quasars, I didn't have time to look anywhere else.

Originally posted by stromstarhammer
Oh, and Novus, fantastic job. You really went all out this week. I like how you posted for several weeks heading into playoffs, just like you did last year. But saving the gold for the final post was a brilliant idea. Building up anticipation, saving some time and energy for yourself and developing your spreadsheet; then posting your big finale. I'm a fan. Thank you.

Wow, you make it sound like it was a big plan or something.

Thanks! Glad you enjoyed the summaries.

Muskies finished as the only undefeated, regular season champs. Puvirnituq is now 24-0 in regular season games.

Good luck to all teams in the playoffs; although, luck has nothing to do with it.