Warrior General Games

My apologies for not mentioning in the thread title, but this is regarding alpha

With so much already set for the top teams, here's my thoughts on where the real fight is happening, 8th place for alpha. 5 teams are currently battling to earn the right to be decimated by the first place team come the playoffs.

(In this I'm making the not necessarily safe assumption that any of these teams will win agains places 13-16. I'm also working off the assumption that 8-8 is the magic number for 8th place.)

Lyon Breakers - 0 games out of 8th
major matches left.
Glasgow, South Yorkshire, Limerick, Southriding, Bow Street, Walthanstow
Conclusion: Would have to win 2 of the above to end with a record of 8-8. Possible places for them are Glasgow, Bow Street, or Limerick. Hard to judge on Walthanstow, but seems like a strong team.

Bow Street Runners - 1 game out of 8th
major matches left
Cork City, Belgian, Marseille, Ikk Fu, Lyon, Dublin.
Conclusion: Would have to win 3 of the above to end with a record of 8-8. Will lose to Ikk Fu and Marseille, other games can be won, but 3 of the 4 left will be hard. Cork City or Lyon could take us out of contention.

Sweden Army - 2 games out of 8th
major matches left
Belfast, Cork City, Glasgow, South Yorkshire, Leeds
Conclusion: Would have to win 3 of the above to end with a record of 8-8. Will lose to South Yorkshire and Belfast. A loss to either Cork City or Glasgow will put them out of contention. Out of this group has the best Zeta game.

Cork City Wildcats - 2 games out of 8th
major matches left
Bow Street, Sweden, Marseille, Ikk Fu, The Vatican
Conclusion: Would have to win 3 of the above to end with a record of 8-8. Will lose to Ikk Fu and Marseille. They need the win against Bow Street to stay in it; Sweden and The Vatican will be hard matches.

Belgian Beers - 2 games out of 8th
major matches left
Limerick, Southriding, Bow Street, Cork City, Kilkenny
Conclusion: Would have to win 3 of the above to end with a record of 8-8. Will lose to Southriding and Kilkenny, most likely lose to Limerick, and potentially lose all 5 of these games. The longest shot of the teams that have a chance.

Prediction:
I think Lyon is still in the best postion to take the spot. A win against Bow Street, and then either Limerick or Glasgow and they get the 8-8. Any of the other teams need to be nearly perfect with the remaining games to catch up, and even then will probably have to beat Lyon by tiebreaker.

Cork City and Sweden look pretty even. I guess we'll find out how even in a couple of days, seeing as we just saw off Sweden with few problems. The Runners are as good a yardstick as there is for that match up.

I've yet to look hard at Lyon...but with our problems this year we're a long shot.

I can't see Sweden doing it, or Belgium with that schedule remaining.

Our game against Cork City is going to be a cracker because of more than just the bad blood Storm has caused.

You didn't take into account the spiral that Rome has been in.....

Originally posted by Tomhusker
You didn't take into account the spiral that Rome has been in.....

Sorry I forgot to clarify in the heading that this is alpha. Unlike some of my teammates that have more free time, I don't have the slightest idea of what is going on in the other half of the league.

I know, just didn't want to miss an opportunity to low ball our squad

Originally posted by Tomhusker
I know, just didn't want to miss an opportunity to low ball our squad

nice

Originally posted by AlmightyFishtank
Cork City and Sweden look pretty even. I guess we'll find out how even in a couple of days, seeing as we just saw off Sweden with few problems. The Runners are as good a yardstick as there is for that match up.

I've yet to look hard at Lyon...but with our problems this year we're a long shot.

I can't see Sweden doing it, or Belgium with that schedule remaining.

Our game against Cork City is going to be a cracker because of more than just the bad blood Storm has caused.

Ya but this match up is now fun. You now have a rival, like it or not. There is nothing I like more than seeing the chiefs Destroy the Raiders...Seeing the Dodgers destroy Giants...seeing Cork destroy Bow....Game on Fella's!

Lyon Breakers 5-4;3 wins for 8-8; 0 games out of 8th
Remaining -> Glasgow <?>, South Yorkshire <L>, Limerick <?>, Port St Lucie <W>, Southriding <L>, Bow Street <?>, Walthamstow <?>
Conclusion: The expected win does nothing to change their odds. Glasgow is a place where they have a reasonable chance to pick up a needed win. A loss here will put a lot of pressure on them for the Limerick game.

Bow Street Runners 4-5; 4 wins for 8-8; 1 game out of 8th
Remaining -> Spaniard <W>, Reykjavik <W>, Belgian <W>, Marseille <L>, Ikk Fu <L>, Lyon <?>, Dublin <?>
Conclusion: 3 winnable games means all that is needed is a win against Lyon, Dublin, or an unexpect (though possible) win against Marseille could put them through.

Sweden Army 2-7; 6 wins for 8-8; 3 games out of 8th
Remaining -> Cork City <?>, Belgrade <W>, Spaniard <W>, Glasgow <?>, Reykjavik <W>, South Yorkshire <L>, Leeds <W>
Conclusion: Even best case scenario has them with two must win games left. A rough game against Cork City and a very hard game vs Glasgow.

Cork City Wildcats 2-7; 6 wins for 8-8; 3 games out of 8th
Remaining -> Sweden <?>, Spaniard <W>, Reykjavik <W>, Belgian <W>, Marseille <?>, Ikk Fu <L>, The Vatican <?>
Conclusion: The loss to Bow Street puts them in a bad situation. It is going to take near perfection to get out of this hole. Sweden is a game that they can win, but can they pull it off against both Marseille and The Vatican?

Predictions
The Sweden vs Cork City game will determine which of the two of them will remain on the board as long shots. However, even with this win it will take great playing and losses from higher teams to make the playoffs.
Bow Street has the best remaining schedule, giving them a bit of an edge even if currently down a game. However, I suspect nothing is going to be settled until Lyon and Bow Street go head to head. The winner of that game will probably get the slot.

Originally posted by Daefaroth
Lyon Breakers 5-4;3 wins for 8-8; 0 games out of 8th
Remaining -> Glasgow <?>, South Yorkshire <L>, Limerick <?>, Port St Lucie <W>, Southriding <L>, Bow Street <?>, Walthamstow <?>
Conclusion: The expected win does nothing to change their odds. Glasgow is a place where they have a reasonable chance to pick up a needed win. A loss here will put a lot of pressure on them for the Limerick game.

Bow Street Runners 4-5; 4 wins for 8-8; 1 game out of 8th
Remaining -> Spaniard <W>, Reykjavik <W>, Belgian <W>, Marseille <L>, Ikk Fu <L>, Lyon <?>, Dublin <?>
Conclusion: 3 winnable games means all that is needed is a win against Lyon, Dublin, or an unexpect (though possible) win against Marseille could put them through.

Sweden Army 2-7; 6 wins for 8-8; 3 games out of 8th
Remaining -> Cork City <?>, Belgrade <W>, Spaniard <W>, Glasgow <?>, Reykjavik <W>, South Yorkshire <L>, Leeds <W>
Conclusion: Even best case scenario has them with two must win games left. A rough game against Cork City and a very hard game vs Glasgow.

Cork City Wildcats 2-7; 6 wins for 8-8; 3 games out of 8th
Remaining -> Sweden <?>, Spaniard <W>, Reykjavik <W>, Belgian <W>, Marseille <?>, Ikk Fu <L>, The Vatican <?>
Conclusion: The loss to Bow Street puts them in a bad situation. It is going to take near perfection to get out of this hole. Sweden is a game that they can win, but can they pull it off against both Marseille and The Vatican?

Predictions
The Sweden vs Cork City game will determine which of the two of them will remain on the board as long shots. However, even with this win it will take great playing and losses from higher teams to make the playoffs.
Bow Street has the best remaining schedule, giving them a bit of an edge even if currently down a game. However, I suspect nothing is going to be settled until Lyon and Bow Street go head to head. The winner of that game will probably get the slot.

heres a video clip that i think applies to our situation......pay particular attention to the last 10 seconds.......

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qwq7BYOnDrM

You want something to really worry about, Breezy? I think you'll beat Sweden....so you're pretty much doomed.

Originally posted by Storm60
heres a video clip that i think applies to our situation......pay particular attention to the last 10 seconds.......

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qwq7BYOnDrM

i take back all that i have said. that was ace. as. tits.

Originally posted by AlmightyFishtank
You want something to really worry about, Breezy? I think you'll beat Sweden....so you're pretty much doomed.

.......i think we'll beat sweden too.......yeah.......ummmm.....we'll see.

Well, I missed a week, but nothing really unexpected happened then anyways, so lets get this current.

Bow Street Runners 6-5; 2 wins for 8-8; 0 games out of 8th
Remaining -> Belgian <W>, Marseille <?>, Ikk Fu <L>, Lyon <?>, Dublin <?>
May come in to the end season one game short of the 8-8. Facing Lyon off of a potential 2 loss streak isn't going to help any. On the other hand, a win against Marseille should just about clinch the playoff seat. There is potential here for a 9-7 season.

Lyon Breakers 5-6;3 wins for 8-8; 1 game out of 8th
Remaining -> Limerick <?>, Port St Lucie <W>, Southriding <L>, Bow Street <?>, Walthamstow <?>
Conclusion: The loss against Glasgow hurt their odds, but they aren't out of contention yet. They need two wins in the three contested games, but they are at a disadvantage in them. Potential exists for Cork to get past them.

Cork City Wildcats 4-7; 4 wins for 8-8; 2 games out of 8th
Remaining -> Reykjavik <W>, Belgian <W>, Marseille <?>, Ikk Fu <L>, The Vatican <?>
Conclusion: The win against Sweden kept them in the ballpark, but can they hold off both Marseille and the Vatican? It is certainly possible for them to do so, but even the two wins probably won't catch them up to Bow Street. Most likely going to end 9th or 10th.

Prediction: Bow Street gets the spot. The Runners are a game up and got the better Zeta match. However, there is a scenario that I had not previously considered. If Marseille lose their matches to both Bow Street and Cork City, they could end the season 8-8. Not a likely scenario, but possible. Could their possibly be two playoff spots still in contention?

Bow Street Runners 7-5; 1 win for 8-8; 0 games out of 8th
Remaining -> Marseille <?>, Ikk Fu <L>, Lyon <?>, Dublin <?>
Conclusion: Almost certain for a playoff spot. With a victory against Marseille, 7th place is within reach.

Lyon Breakers 5-7; 3 wins for 8-8; 2 games out of 8th
Remaining -> Port St Lucie <W>, Southriding <L>, Bow Street <?>, Walthamstow <?>
Conclusion: The loss against Limerick puts them up against the ropes. They are going to need Bow Street or Marseille to get some extra losses for them to get back in contention.

Cork City Wildcats 5-7; 3 wins for 8-8; 2 games out of 8th
Remaining -> Belgian <W>, Marseille <?>, Ikk Fu <L>, The Vatican <?>
Conclusion: The expected win doesn't change their situation, but losses from both Marseille and Lyon keep the glimmer of hope shining on the Wildcats.

Marseille Argonauts 7-5; 1 win for 8-8; 0 games out of 8th
Remaining -> Bow Street <?>, Cork City <?>, Spaniard <W>, Buffalo<?>
Conclusion: Still going to end up with a playoff spot, mostly included at this point because a loss to Bow Street would switch their positions, with Bow Street getting 7th and Marseille slotting in at 8th.


Prediction: Bow Street and Marseille are 7th and 8th, but still in the air as to which order. Cork and Lyon could also fall either way with 9th and 10th. Either Cork or Lyon could fight their way into 8th with a series of wins combined with losses from the higher teams.

Thanks for figuring this out and posting! I found it inforative and enjoyed the read.