Calculated Elo Ratings for the Oceania Pro League (OPL) post wk 5 games...
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 102.57
IC Incinerators Zeta 89.41
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 62.87
Vanuatu Kava Sharks Zeta 61.04
Tonga Ikale Tahi Alpha 61.04
FFLW Caninites Zeta 57.81
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 55.96
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 54.79
New England Burning Pride Alpha 52.23
Canberra Strike Alpha 50.27
East Coast Tide Alpha 50.13
Brisbane Heat Zeta 49.07
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 45.09
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 23.18
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 22.07
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 20.18
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 18.24
Co-op City Blitz Zeta 11.79
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 3.65
Brisbane Gods Zeta 0.44
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha -2.42
Auckland Flames Alpha -3.74
Big Island Growas Zeta -32.36
Perth Scorpions Alpha -37.46
Saipan Fighters Zeta -43.25
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta -75.64
Green Bay WOODUHS Alpha -78.90
Purdue Boilermakers Zeta -99.65
Jakarta Men O' War Zeta -105.69
Westpac Shellbacks Zeta -121.76
Aussie Cardinals Alpha -125.02
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha -165.93
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Predicted Win Probabilities for wk 6 intraconference games based on Elo data (with team chem factor)...
Week 5 predictions: 8-8-0
Season 4 prediction totals: 53-25-2
East Coast Tide Alpha 0.781
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 0.709
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 0.691
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 0.672
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 0.645
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 0.641
IC Incinerators Zeta 0.629
Perth Scorpions Alpha 0.627
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 0.589
Tonga Ikale Tahi Alpha 0.588
New England Burning Pride Alpha 0.577
Brisbane Heat Zeta 0.551
Canberra Strike Alpha 0.544
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 0.533
Jakarta Men O' War Zeta 0.515
Vanuatu Kava Sharks Zeta 0.505
FFLW Caninites Zeta 0.495
Westpac Shellbacks Zeta 0.485
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 0.467
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 0.456
Co-op City Blitz Zeta 0.449
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 0.423
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 0.412
Auckland Flames Alpha 0.411
Aussie Cardinals Alpha 0.373
Brisbane Gods Zeta 0.371
Big Island Growas Zeta 0.359
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta 0.355
Purdue Boilermakers Zeta 0.328
Green Bay WOODUHS Alpha 0.309
Saipan Fighters Zeta 0.291
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha 0.219
-----------------------------------------------------------
Upcoming Games of the Week [game rating = combined team Elo ratings - ABS (team Elo rating difference)]:
Gold: FFLW Caninites (4-1-0) at **Vanuatu Kava Sharks (4-1-0) [game rating: 115.62]
Silver: **Brantford Mustangs (3-2-0) at Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels (3-2-0) [game rating: 44.13]
Bronze: Newcastle Bearcats (3-2-0) at **Canberra Strike (4-1-0) [game rating: 36.48]
**Favored in Predicted Win Probability
-----------------------------------------------------------
Caveats: This data is based on a limited data set of 5 points(games). Data sets above 30 points are recommended for reliable trend/regression analysis.
Additionally, since no cross-conference/cross-league games have been played yet, the different conferences were combined assuming that both conferences had identical overall conference strength.
Notes: Elo "K value" = 20 (reg season 'friendly' matches) and starting Elo rating of zero for all teams starting at season's start. "Actual results" - Win=1, Tie=0.5, Loss=0
These ratings include a team chemistry factor for the team with higher chem [dr=square root(team chem diff)]. Additionally, winning margin is factored into the ratings. "N" is calculated as [(Abs game score difference)/7], and "G" is fixed and = [(11+N)/8].
NOT included in the ratings are schedule strength and home field advantage.
Please see http://www.eloratings.net/system.html for further base methodology information.
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 102.57
IC Incinerators Zeta 89.41
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 62.87
Vanuatu Kava Sharks Zeta 61.04
Tonga Ikale Tahi Alpha 61.04
FFLW Caninites Zeta 57.81
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 55.96
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 54.79
New England Burning Pride Alpha 52.23
Canberra Strike Alpha 50.27
East Coast Tide Alpha 50.13
Brisbane Heat Zeta 49.07
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 45.09
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 23.18
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 22.07
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 20.18
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 18.24
Co-op City Blitz Zeta 11.79
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 3.65
Brisbane Gods Zeta 0.44
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha -2.42
Auckland Flames Alpha -3.74
Big Island Growas Zeta -32.36
Perth Scorpions Alpha -37.46
Saipan Fighters Zeta -43.25
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta -75.64
Green Bay WOODUHS Alpha -78.90
Purdue Boilermakers Zeta -99.65
Jakarta Men O' War Zeta -105.69
Westpac Shellbacks Zeta -121.76
Aussie Cardinals Alpha -125.02
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha -165.93
-----------------------------------------------------------
Predicted Win Probabilities for wk 6 intraconference games based on Elo data (with team chem factor)...
Week 5 predictions: 8-8-0
Season 4 prediction totals: 53-25-2
East Coast Tide Alpha 0.781
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 0.709
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 0.691
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 0.672
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 0.645
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 0.641
IC Incinerators Zeta 0.629
Perth Scorpions Alpha 0.627
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 0.589
Tonga Ikale Tahi Alpha 0.588
New England Burning Pride Alpha 0.577
Brisbane Heat Zeta 0.551
Canberra Strike Alpha 0.544
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 0.533
Jakarta Men O' War Zeta 0.515
Vanuatu Kava Sharks Zeta 0.505
FFLW Caninites Zeta 0.495
Westpac Shellbacks Zeta 0.485
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 0.467
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 0.456
Co-op City Blitz Zeta 0.449
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 0.423
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 0.412
Auckland Flames Alpha 0.411
Aussie Cardinals Alpha 0.373
Brisbane Gods Zeta 0.371
Big Island Growas Zeta 0.359
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta 0.355
Purdue Boilermakers Zeta 0.328
Green Bay WOODUHS Alpha 0.309
Saipan Fighters Zeta 0.291
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha 0.219
-----------------------------------------------------------
Upcoming Games of the Week [game rating = combined team Elo ratings - ABS (team Elo rating difference)]:
Gold: FFLW Caninites (4-1-0) at **Vanuatu Kava Sharks (4-1-0) [game rating: 115.62]
Silver: **Brantford Mustangs (3-2-0) at Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels (3-2-0) [game rating: 44.13]
Bronze: Newcastle Bearcats (3-2-0) at **Canberra Strike (4-1-0) [game rating: 36.48]
**Favored in Predicted Win Probability
-----------------------------------------------------------
Caveats: This data is based on a limited data set of 5 points(games). Data sets above 30 points are recommended for reliable trend/regression analysis.
Additionally, since no cross-conference/cross-league games have been played yet, the different conferences were combined assuming that both conferences had identical overall conference strength.
Notes: Elo "K value" = 20 (reg season 'friendly' matches) and starting Elo rating of zero for all teams starting at season's start. "Actual results" - Win=1, Tie=0.5, Loss=0
These ratings include a team chemistry factor for the team with higher chem [dr=square root(team chem diff)]. Additionally, winning margin is factored into the ratings. "N" is calculated as [(Abs game score difference)/7], and "G" is fixed and = [(11+N)/8].
NOT included in the ratings are schedule strength and home field advantage.
Please see http://www.eloratings.net/system.html for further base methodology information.
