Warrior General Games

Well, they're back. Last season's wildly popular (...and startlingly accurate) playoff prediction thread from yours truly, Oceania's resident loud mouthed asshole, (http://goallineblitz.com/game/forum_thread.pl?thread_id=291509 ) is back for another go round.

So without further ado...

Alpha

1. Brantford-- 16-0; 7-0 vs. Playoff teams. 5 Quality Wins*. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was +11.29 points.

2. Fiji-- 14-2; 5-2 vs. Playoff teams. 2 Quality Wins, 1 Possible Fluke Loss**. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was +5.14 points.

3. Newcastle-- 13-3; 5-3 vs. Playoff teams. 2 Quality Wins. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was +1 point.

4. New England-- 12-4; 4-4 vs. Playoff teams. 3 quality wins, 1 Possible Fluke Loss. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was +2.375 points.

5. Canberra-- 11-5; 3-5 vs. playoff teams. 3 quality wins. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was -.25 points.

6. Emerald City-- 10-6; 2-6 vs. playoff teams. 0 quality wins. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was -6.375 points.

7. West Scranton-- 10-6; 3-4 vs. playoff teams. 1 quality win, 1 possible fluke loss. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was -.57 points.

8. Brisbane-- 8-8; 2-5 vs. plaoff teams. 0 quality wins. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was - 6 points.

Round 1:

Brantford over Brisbane (99.9% confidence level)
New England over Canberra (21% confidence level)
Fiji over West Scranton (95 % confidence level)
Emerald City over Newcastle (34% confidence level)

Round 2:

Brantford over New England (60% confidence level)
Fiji over Emerald City (88% confidence level)

Conference Final:

Brantford over Fiji (41% confidence level)

Zeta:

1. FFLW-- 16-0; 7-0 vs playoff teams. 7 quality wins. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was + 27.28 points.

2. FFlivewire-- 14-2; 5-2 vs. playoff teams; 5 quality wins. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was + 8.42 points.

3. Rawle Tech-- 12-4; 4-4 vs. playoff teams; 2 quality wins, 1 possible fluke loss. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was +1 point.

4. Tongan-- 12-4; 4-4 vs. playoff teams; 2 quality wins. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was + 1.5 points.

5. IC-- 11-5; 3-5 vs. playoff teams; 1 quality win, 1 possible fluke loss. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was - 6.25 points.

6. Brisbane-- 11-5; 4-4 vs. playoff teams. 1 quality win, 1 possible fluke loss. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was -7.25 points.

7. The U-- 11-5; 3-4 vs. playoff teams. 1 quality win, 2 possible fluke losses. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was -9.57 points.

8. Las Vegas-- 10-6; 1-6 vs. playoff teams. 0 quality wins. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was -19.71 points.

Round 1:

FFLW over Las Vegas (99.999% confidence level)
Tongan over IC (75% confidence level)
The U Canes over FFLivewire (71% confidence level)
Brisbane over Rawle Tech (12% confidence level)

Round 2:
FFLW over Tongan (81% confidence level)
The U Canes over Brisbane (41% confidence level)

Conference final: FFLW over The U (41% confidence level)

PRO FINAL:
FFLW over Brantford (21% confidence level)

*Quality wins are defined as wins by more than one possession over teams that have a winning percentage of .667 or better.

**Possible Fluke Losses are defined as losses by a fiend goal or less.

* % Confidence level is NOT the same as odds of winning, it is the confidence of the statement. It is the same as the level of confidence you would get from using the three sigma rule on a normal distribution.

New England over Canberra (21% confidence level)
Fiji over West Scranton (95 % confidence level)
Emerald City over Newcastle (34% confidence level)

I don't see how any of these games could possibly have a confidence level over 5%!!

Originally posted by Vilita
New England over Canberra (21% confidence level)
Fiji over West Scranton (95 % confidence level)
Emerald City over Newcastle (34% confidence level)

I don't see how any of these games could possibly have a confidence level over 5%!!

I can see what you mean:
http://goallineblitz.com/game/game.pl?game_id=41399

well, last time you predicted that we would beat Fiji with 50% confidence, and we lost.

so, that makes me rather happy to see we lose in your prediction

Originally posted by Ballbright
Well, they're back. Last season's wildly popular (...and startlingly accurate) playoff prediction thread from yours truly, Oceania's resident loud mouthed asshole, (http://goallineblitz.com/game/forum_thread.pl?thread_id=291509 ) is back for another go round.

So without further ado...

Alpha

1. Brantford-- 16-0; 7-0 vs. Playoff teams. 5 Quality Wins*. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was +11.29 points.

2. Fiji-- 14-2; 5-2 vs. Playoff teams. 2 Quality Wins, 1 Possible Fluke Loss**. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was +5.14 points.

3. Newcastle-- 13-3; 5-3 vs. Playoff teams. 2 Quality Wins. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was +1 point.

4. New England-- 12-4; 4-4 vs. Playoff teams. 3 quality wins, 1 Possible Fluke Loss. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was +2.375 points.

5. Canberra-- 11-5; 3-5 vs. playoff teams. 3 quality wins. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was -.25 points.

6. Emerald City-- 10-6; 2-6 vs. playoff teams. 0 quality wins. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was -6.375 points.

7. West Scranton-- 10-6; 3-4 vs. playoff teams. 1 quality win, 1 possible fluke loss. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was -.57 points.

8. Brisbane-- 8-8; 2-5 vs. plaoff teams. 0 quality wins. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was - 6 points.

Round 1:

Brantford over Brisbane (99.9% confidence level)
New England over Canberra (21% confidence level)
Fiji over West Scranton (95 % confidence level)
Emerald City over Newcastle (34% confidence level)

Round 2:

Brantford over New England (60% confidence level)
Fiji over Emerald City (88% confidence level)

Conference Final:

Brantford over Fiji (41% confidence level)

Zeta:

1. FFLW-- 16-0; 7-0 vs playoff teams. 7 quality wins. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was + 27.28 points.

2. FFlivewire-- 14-2; 5-2 vs. playoff teams; 5 quality wins. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was + 8.42 points.

3. Rawle Tech-- 12-4; 4-4 vs. playoff teams; 2 quality wins, 1 possible fluke loss. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was +1 point.

4. Tongan-- 12-4; 4-4 vs. playoff teams; 2 quality wins. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was + 1.5 points.

5. IC-- 11-5; 3-5 vs. playoff teams; 1 quality win, 1 possible fluke loss. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was - 6.25 points.

6. Brisbane-- 11-5; 4-4 vs. playoff teams. 1 quality win, 1 possible fluke loss. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was -7.25 points.

7. The U-- 11-5; 3-4 vs. playoff teams. 1 quality win, 2 possible fluke losses. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was -9.57 points.

8. Las Vegas-- 10-6; 1-6 vs. playoff teams. 0 quality wins. Average score differential vs. playoff teams was -19.71 points.

Round 1:

FFLW over Las Vegas (99.999% confidence level)
Tongan over IC (75% confidence level)
The U Canes over FFLivewire (71% confidence level)
Brisbane over Rawle Tech (12% confidence level)

Round 2:
FFLW over Tongan (81% confidence level)
The U Canes over Brisbane (41% confidence level)

Conference final: FFLW over The U (41% confidence level)

PRO FINAL:
FFLW over Brantford (21% confidence level)

*Quality wins are defined as wins by more than one possession over teams that have a winning percentage of .667 or better.

**Possible Fluke Losses are defined as losses by a fiend goal or less.

* % Confidence level is NOT the same as odds of winning, it is the confidence of the statement. It is the same as the level of confidence you would get from using the three sigma rule on a normal distribution.

I've been quite so far and I do appreciate all the predictions every week.I also think Fiji has a fantastic team but Fiji 95% certainty over West Scranton?? WHAT? lol

Originally posted by Ballbright

The U Canes over FFLivewire (71% confidence level)


This is the one that really surprises me.

Dude wait till you see what the bandits have in store for the Mustangs.

Originally posted by lukin83
Originally posted by Ballbright


The U Canes over FFLivewire (71% confidence level)


This is the one that really surprises me.

It did me at first, but looking over the math, and the level differences currently...I didn't stay too surprised.


Plenty of people were squawking about these last season...yet they were 75% accurate, predicting 3 of the final four teams before the playoffs even started...

Originally posted by kevins4484
Dude wait till you see what the bandits have in store for the Mustangs.



You guys are planning on bowing out graciously after getting blown out ?

No quality wins for Brisbane?

how about over Newcastle?.... or earlier vs. last seasons champs, Canberra?

Bandits get less respect than Rodney Dangerfield!!

Originally posted by Mattarchy
No quality wins for Brisbane?

how about over Newcastle?.... or earlier vs. last seasons champs, Canberra?

Bandits get less respect than Rodney Dangerfield!!

The win over Newcastle didn't meet the required margin of victory to be considered "quality" (margin is 8 or more points).

As team rosters frequently change during the off season, previous seasons and their accomplishments are not factored in for this formula.

Can we get a new category called "Uber-Quality Win" if we beat the Minature Ponies?

Originally posted by kevins4484
Can we get a new category called "Uber-Quality Win" if we beat the Minature Ponies?

No, but we can give you the nice consolation prize of advancing to the next round of the playoffs....

I'm impressed! Unlike last season, you didn't pick every single higher seed to advance!

EDIT:

Apparently, to appease Ballbright and his awesome greatness, because 100% accuracy in the internet counts for everything these days:

I'm impressed! Unlike last season, you didn't pick every single higher seed to advance out of the first round!

Kill me.

Originally posted by atm490
I'm impressed! Unlike last season, you didn't pick every single higher seed to advance!

I didn't pick all higher seeds last season. 2 of the 4 second round games I picked were upsets...

All clearly available on the record in the link I provided above for just such a smart-assed occasion.