Calculated Elo Ratings for the Oceania Pro League after wk 16 games (AND final rating for non-playoff teams)...
FFLW Caninites Zeta 243.74
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 205.85
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 201.87
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 142.82
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 142.46
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 120.72
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 119.01
New England Burning Pride Alpha 111.90
Canberra Strike Alpha 97.21
IC Incinerators Zeta 91.44
The U Canes Zeta 90.39
Brisbane Gods Zeta 81.00
Las Vegas Outlaws Zeta 58.12
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 55.86
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 53.51
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 15.27
Aussie Cardinals Alpha 7.26
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha -8.80
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta -14.89
Tasmania Devils Alpha -15.53
Big Island Growas Zeta -16.05
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha -58.69
Perth Scorpions Alpha -86.04
Co-op City Blitz Zeta -121.32
Saipan Fighters Zeta -126.35
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta -131.79
Speightstown Rum Runners Alpha -153.09
Auckland Flames Alpha -157.94
Outback Astronauts Zeta -188.13
Bermuda Pirates Zeta -200.76
Hollywood Decepticons Alpha -239.18
Buen Retiro Longhorns Zeta -313.78
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Predicted Win Probabilities (prorated +56.67 elo for home team) for upcoming wk 17 playoff games based on Elo data...
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 0.806
FFLW Caninites Zeta 0.801
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 0.725
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 0.698
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 0.696
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 0.635
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 0.619
New England Burning Pride Alpha 0.601
Canberra Strike Alpha 0.399
IC Incinerators Zeta 0.381
Brisbane Gods Zeta 0.365
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 0.304
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 0.302
The U Canes Zeta 0.275
Las Vegas Outlaws Zeta 0.199
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 0.194
note: Teams > 0.640 predicted win probability can be said to be 'greatly favored' in predicted win probability.
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Upcoming playoff Games of the Week [game rating = combined team Elo ratings - ABS (team Elo rating difference)]:
Canberra Strike (11-5-0) at *New England Burning Pride (12-4-0) [game rating: 194.43]
IC Incinerators (11-5-0) at *Tongan Crimson Auha (12-4-0) [game rating: 182.88]
* - Favored by predicted win probability
*** - Greatly favored by predicted win probability
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caveats: This data is based on a limited data set of 16 points(games). Data sets above 30 points are recommended for reliable trend/regression analysis.
notes: Elo "K value" = 20 (reg season 'friendly' matches) and starting Elo rating of zero for all teams starting at season's start. "Actual results" - Win=1, Tie=0.5, Loss=0
These ratings include home field advantage (dr=100 for Elo calc, prorated (3.33*week of season) for predicted win probabilities). Additionally, winning margin is factored into the ratings. "N" is calculated as [(Abs game score difference)/7], and "G" is fixed and = [(11+N)/8].
Please see http://www.eloratings.net/system.html for further methodology information.
NOT included in the ratings are team chemistry and schedule strength.