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Forum > USA A Leagues > USA A #4 > The playoff plot thickens...
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treygreen13
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I, once again, want to start this post off with a caveat about the content: It is only my opinion of how I think the playoff race might turn out. I mean no slight to your team if I predict them to lose... blah blah blah it's probably wrong blah blah blah.

Ok, here's how the playoff situation is working itself out. There are currently 9 teams in the hunt for a playoff spot in the West. We've had an upset once already, so it's time for me to adjust the projections.

The Squirrels won their first of the remaining 3 games, putting them at 9-5. They'll be hosting the LUEshis at home to decide who gets the tiebreaker for the two teams. So far, traversing as projected.

The Pewnts beat up the Raiders, once again continuing as projected.

The Bayou Bengals dropped one to the Warriors in a rushing nightmare. I had assumed that they would win, but the Warriors made it too tough. I still like them for the rest of the way, though, so I think they end up 13-3.

The Bolts blow through an easy game, nailing the Lesbians and continuing on the projected track.

The Wildcats hammered the new scorpions as predicted, and continue on projections.

The Hurricane Warriors pulled out a tough win over the Bengals, and beat the projection. I'm upgrading them to 12-4.

The Raiders lost today, but the projections didn't have them winning that game. They might smell blood in the water, however, when they go up against the Bengals. Still, I think the Bengals pull this one out, considering how inconsistent the middle of the pack is in the West.

The Hangovers beat the Projection, setting them up for a win-out situation. I'm upgrading their final standing to 12-4.

Lastly, the LUEshis drop a game I thought they'd win, and become in danger of being the one of nine that doesn't make the cut. They pretty much have to beat the Squirrels to make it into the playoffs, since they lose a tiebreaker to Aukland.

My prediction for week 16:
1. Pewnts 16-0
2. Bengals 13-3
3. Wildcats 12-4
4. Bolts 12-4
5. Warriors 12-4
6. Hangovers 12-4
*Squirrels 10-6/11-5
*Raiders 10-6
*Lueshis 9-7/10-6

If the Squirrels beat the Lueshis, then the Raiders get the tiebreaker and advance over the Lueshis. If the Lueshis beat the Squirrels, then the Squirrels get the tiebreaker and advance over the Raiders. (Of course, that is assuming that my predictions stand up to that point, which of course they won't because this is the West, where upsets are a regular occurrence.

The Bolts/Wildcats game will be the deciding factor in the 3-4-5-6 spot lineup, since they've all traded losses between each other. Watch that one closely!
 
Jpowers22
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The current standings are fubar'd, we(The bolts) should be in 2nd place due to our head to head victory against the Hammond Bayou Bengals and because of their victory over the Wildcats. From what I've heard, standings are based upon 1st) Head to Head wins 2nd) Points for/Points against or some ratio thereof. If we beat the Wildcats we "should" be the 2nd seed in the playoffs, if we lose to them we will likely fall to the 4 or 5 seed.
Last edited Jul 9, 2008 14:40:30
 
treygreen13
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Originally posted by Jpowers22
The current standings are fubar'd, we(The bolts) should be in 2nd place due to our head to head victory against the Hammond Bayou Bengals and because of their victory over the Wildcats. From what I've heard, standings are based upon 1st) Head to Head wins 2nd) Points for/Points against or some ratio thereof. If we beat the Wildcats we "should" be the 2nd seed in the playoffs, if we lose to them we will likely fall to the 4 or 5 seed.


I didn't take current standings into effect. I'm only looking at how things will be in week 16.

Unless, of course, you're just complaining about how the current standings are messed up, and not about my projections.
 
Jpowers22
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Originally posted by treygreen13


Unless, of course, you're just complaining about how the current standings are messed up, and not about my projections.


Yes thats what I'm complaining because if its broke now and we both win out, whats to say that it won't be broke then. Being the 2 seed and having a chance at 2 home playoff games is huge.
 
treygreen13
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Originally posted by Jpowers22
Originally posted by treygreen13



Unless, of course, you're just complaining about how the current standings are messed up, and not about my projections.


Yes thats what I'm complaining because if its broke now and we both win out, whats to say that it won't be broke then. Being the 2 seed and having a chance at 2 home playoff games is huge.


You're right. It does seem odd that you're below them, considering you have the same record and have beaten them. Perhaps the game is holding judgment until the bolts/cats game is resolved, then handling the tie that way. However, I wouldn't freak out about how you show up in week 14... your game with the Wildcats should make it clear who will take that 3 spot.

I still think the Bengals beat the Raiders and Knights, and that the Wildcats take you down in the matchup... nothing personal, of course, that's just what I would predict to happen. Then it comes down to how well the Wildcats handle the Sharks.

It's getting very confusing, I know. I'd guess you end up in the 3 or 4 spot, which guarantees you one home playoff game.
Last edited Jul 9, 2008 15:26:19
 
Jpowers22
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Oh we're definitely not looking past the game, and we know full well whats on the line. We have 2 things that are really in our favor for this game, 1) they played the scorpions this week, which can and often does mess with energy 2) we have a cupcake in week 16 so we really can sell out for this game.
 
lawdog
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Originally posted by Jpowers22
The current standings are fubar'd, we(The bolts) should be in 2nd place due to our head to head victory against the Hammond Bayou Bengals and because of their victory over the Wildcats. From what I've heard, standings are based upon 1st) Head to Head wins 2nd) Points for/Points against or some ratio thereof. If we beat the Wildcats we "should" be the 2nd seed in the playoffs, if we lose to them we will likely fall to the 4 or 5 seed.


Nevermind...I didn't see we have the same record.
Last edited Jul 9, 2008 15:59:38
 
Caeldan
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Unless I missed an update (possible since Bort turned of the forum search and didn't provide any tracker of his postings)...

Standings are based on W-L record of tied teams.
Anyone still tied is then sorted by Points For.
If any are left, they are sorted by Points Against.
Finally I believe they are sorted either alphabetically, or based on last week's rank(I can't remember what the default db sort option ends up being.. I think it actually might just be the previous relative position since the query won't do anything to move the teams).
 
l4boMb4
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man, that punt return against against the bolts is really coming back to haunt us. More so than i thought it would. We might have had home field advantage for the first playoff game.

(we fumbled a punt return in the 3rd quarter which was taken all the way back for a TD, which ultimately cost us the game as we lost by 3 points.)
 
Randal Kay
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special teams is very important. You can argue it cost us a game against the Squirrels We gave up great field position late in that game on a kick off and they took advantage for the go ahead TD.

Never the less it is going to be an exciting games on Friday.

 
Fandom
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There are three HUGE games on Friday.

Bolts - Wildcats
Bengals - Raiders
LUEshis - Squirrels

The Bolt-Wildcat matchup is especially big because the winner of that game gets at least one home game in the playoffs and the loser might not get any.

The Raider-Bengal game is important to both the Bolts and Wildcats because if the Raiders can pull the upset (and they can) either the Wildcats or the Bolts can sneak in and get the number 2 seed.

It's not clear to me if the LUEshis or Squirrels can get a home game in the playoffs but this game is important for seeding purposes nonetheless.
 
treygreen13
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Originally posted by Fandom
There are three HUGE games on Friday.

Bolts - Wildcats
Bengals - Raiders
LUEshis - Squirrels

The Bolt-Wildcat matchup is especially big because the winner of that game gets at least one home game in the playoffs and the loser might not get any.

The Raider-Bengal game is important to both the Bolts and Wildcats because if the Raiders can pull the upset (and they can) either the Wildcats or the Bolts can sneak in and get the number 2 seed.

It's not clear to me if the LUEshis or Squirrels can get a home game in the playoffs but this game is important for seeding purposes nonetheless.


It's impossible. The Wildcats would have precedence over both of them, even if either team won both games and the Wildcats lost both.
 
Caeldan
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Originally posted by treygreen13
Originally posted by Fandom

There are three HUGE games on Friday.

Bolts - Wildcats
Bengals - Raiders
LUEshis - Squirrels

The Bolt-Wildcat matchup is especially big because the winner of that game gets at least one home game in the playoffs and the loser might not get any.

The Raider-Bengal game is important to both the Bolts and Wildcats because if the Raiders can pull the upset (and they can) either the Wildcats or the Bolts can sneak in and get the number 2 seed.

It's not clear to me if the LUEshis or Squirrels can get a home game in the playoffs but this game is important for seeding purposes nonetheless.


It's impossible. The Wildcats would have precedence over both of them, even if either team won both games and the Wildcats lost both.


Actually - for the purposes of getting the #4 seed, it is possible for the squirrels to reach in at least one situation (which is very unlikely to occur) I spotted. We have the tiebreaker over the Bolts.

So if the Bolts, Hangovers and Hurricane Warriors all go 0-2 for weeks 15 and 16, while the Squirrels go 2-0 - that would leave the Bolts and Squirrels tied with a 11-5 record, and the tie breaker going to the Squirrels for the 4th seed. If in this situation, the Bayou Bengals went 0-2... there'd be a 3 way tie - with each team having a 1-1 record in the tie breaker. So it would then go to points for in which the Bengals currently lead at 661, Bolts at 577 and the Squirrels at 563 - and the loser of this tie breaker would be sitting in 5th, while the Wildcats prowled their way into the 2nd seed.
Last edited Jul 10, 2008 18:58:46
 
Randal Kay
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good luck with that pipe dream.
 
Caeldan
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Originally posted by Randal Kay
good luck with that pipe dream.


Like I said - it's POSSIBLE but unlikely... I'd say not even plausible really. But eh, who knows - stranger things have happened
 
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