Good evening, everyone. Here's your weekly installment of CPP, or Chase's Playoff Picture. I'll go ahead and do a version every week until the regular season ends. Most every game went according to plan this week, with one notable exception: El Fuego-Dunedin. This upset could have some big ramifications in the playoff chase, as I'll point out below. Uluru drops from this version, as they are out of the playoff picture following this week's loss. Without further ado, here are your rankings: I hope they're as good for you as they are for me!
Games left: 4
Z: clinched home-field throughout the playoffs
Y: clinched 1st-round home playoff game
X: clinched playoff birth
Standings:
1-Y: Melbourne Thorny Devils, 13-0
2-Y: Bikini Atoll Mushroom Clouds, 12-1
3-X: Tonga Thunderbirds, 11-2
4: Christchurch Knightmares, 9-4
5: The Four Horsemen, 9-4
6: El Fuego, 8-5
7: Coney Island Warriors, 8-5
8: North Marinara Islands Ramekins, 7-6
9: Dunedin Wolverines, 7-6
10: Chinese Bandits, 6-7
Team scenarios:
Melbourne Thorny Devils: 1st, 13-0
The resident undefeated behemoth reigns supreme this week thanks to a 34-14 victory over a feisty, determined Christchurch squad. Likewise, the Devils clinched a home playoff birth this week and move another step closer toward locking down home-field advantage for the playoffs. Next week brings the team's final home game against an overwhelmed Mauna Kea team, which should be a sizable victory. Then, the Devils take on a reeling team at El Fuego, which it appears will likely be unable to avoid this loss. The final game at Florida Parishes may test the Devils, but should also be a Devils victory. The road to an undefeated regular season looks pretty well-kept.
Predicted finish: 16-0, 1st
2. Bikini Atoll Mushroom Clouds: 2nd, 12-1
The Mushrooms continue to roll along after pasting Redscape with a 58-0 shutout. The Clouds also have locked themselves into at least one home-field game, and will likely receive two, barring a disaster. The Clouds have a very winnable home game against Cimmeria next. They finish the regular season at Coney Island (a should-win) and at Sydney. The Sydney game is intriguing, for they are one of the more talented teams in Alpha, but have lost three straight games. I think the Clouds have enough great players and coaching to win that game; still, we can't totally discount Sydney, can we?
Predicted finish: 15-1, 2nd
3. Tonga Thunderbirds: 3rd, 11-2
Tonga came roaring back after last week's loss, pasting a triple-digit shutout on the hapless Ronnie Rockers. It doesn't appear, though, that Tonga should lose another game until the playoffs, at least. Next, the Thunderbirds travel to Uluru, for a very winnable game. The final two games are again at home. First comes Redscape (a should-win). Next, Illesheim comes calling. The Krauts have posted a solid record (10-3, 4th Alpha), but the Thunderbirds look to have too much depth for Illesheim to counteract. However, Tonga cannot take this one lightly.
Predicted finish: 14-2, 3rd
4. Christchurch Knightmares: 9-4, 4th
The race for the final home playoff game is *really* starting to cook now. Christchurch has not mathematically clinched a playoff spot, but one more win or Dunedin/NMI loss will do it (and come on, they still play FPQA). It's definitely not a stunner that Christchurch lost to Melbourne, and the Knightmares should be proud of their performance. Next comes a game at FPQA, who seems to be up next for every team looking to make a statement after loss to the Devils. The final two games are against Uluru (a "should-win") and against Thatto Heath (here's your correction, Chris, haha). That final game has upset potential, but I believe Christchurch has too much firepower and will knoch the Smashers' teeth out.
Predicted finish: 12-4, 4th
5. The Four Horsemen: 9-4, 5th
The Horsemen find themselves in 5th thanks to a hotly-contested midseason loss to Christchurch; it appears that the Horsemen are highly unlikely to catch up, too. It's crazy to think that the Horsemen have not yet clinched a playoff birth, but a win or a Dunedin loss, and they will clinch in Week 13. The Horsemen must have made a deal with the schedule-makers, since the last three weeks are not overly taxing. Tasmania didn't put up much of a fight this last week, losing 41-3. Next week, the Horsemen travel to NMI, which should be a win (but should not be overlooked). The next game is a home date against Dunedin (which is a near mirror image of NMI). The final game is against the English Wasps, the weakest team in Alpha; not surprisingly, this is a near-lock. A grudge match against Christchurch should await.
Predicted finish: 12-4, 5th
6. El Fuego: 8-5, 6th
Hmmm. I said this game had upset potential last week, and look what Dunedin just did! That 23-14 loss is going to sting badly for El Fuego. It didn't drop them any in the rankings for now, but a beast of a closing schedule does not shine brightly on El Fuego. I said that El Fuego could go 1-3, and it now looks like a reasonable proposition. The next game is at Chinese. I can't say that this game favors El Fuego now, since the Chinese are on a roll; this is a HUGE game for playoff ramifications. The next game is against Melbourne (which will look to send El Fuego spinning out of control. The finale is against Gainesville, where El Fuego should (and must) pick up a win. I now have to predict a 1-2 close to the season. If this happens, if Dunedin wins a virtual toss-up against South Australian, and if Chinese run the table, guess who's sitting at home for the playoffs? I would have NEVER though this might even possibly happen to this team, especially a team who started out the season with a scoring advantage of 179-0. Incredible. They better hope South Australian beats Dunedin like I predict.
Predicted finish: 9-7, 8th
7. Coney Island Warriors: 7th, 8-5
The "Cardiac Kids" were truly anything but that this week, pasting Uluru 37-14 and ending any bleak playoff hopes for the Rockies. Coney Island next plays at Redscape which should add another win to the Warriors' tally. The next game is against Bikini Atoll, and I cannot foresee a Coney Island upset. The finale is against Solomon Island, which just doesn't have the firepower to upset Coney Island. 2-1 looks mighty likely, and I'd bet Coney Island would *love* to have that early season game against El Fuego back (especially if a fluky upset happens).
Predicted finish: 10-6, 6th
8. Northern Mariana Islands Ramekins: 8th, 7-6
The playoff picture's getting HOT! NMI holds the tiebreaker due to the Week 1 win over Dunedin. NMI took care of business this week by putting up 51 points on Cimmerian. However, the next game is against the Horsemen, which the Horsemen really should win. The next-to-last game is at Tasmania (which is almost a definite for NMI). The final game is against Easter Island. This last game is HUGE. A win likely gets NMI in, but a loss has the chance to keep them off the field in the postseason. Frankly, I think Easter Island has the edge right now. NMI just cannot afford a loss right here, and the El Fuego-Chinese matchup next week is HUGE for NMI. With a loss in Week 16 and a Chinese win next week, NMI is left outside the playoffs. Did anyone foresee this when NMI was 5-1?
Predicted finish: 8-8, 9th
9. Dunedin Wolverines: 9th, 7-6
Wow. You predict that a team will finish with a losing record, and then they pounce all over the 6th-ranked team in the conference. Boy, now does that Week 1 loss ever sting, not just because of the tiebreak lost to NMI, but because the extra win is gone. Dunedin reminds me more and more every week of NMI: a 5-2 start, only to be on the outside-looking-in now. The next game is against Cimmerian, and Dunedin has a large advantage. The game after is at the Four Horsemen, where the Horsemen have to be favored. The finale is against South Australian. I know, I have to favor South Australian due to the blocking and rushing defense. However, if Dunedin plays as well as they did today, they could finish 2-1, which would be HUGE in the playoff picture, since they hold the tiebreaker over Chinese AND El Fuego. They'd even vault to 7th over both teams. It's crazy how one unexpected loss can affect so many teams.
Predicted finish: 8-8, 10th
10. Chinese Bandits: 6-7, 10th
This team is really starting to heat up, especially after the 24-point victory over Mauna Kea. Yes, I know that Chinese would have to win out to make the playoffs, but with El Fuego's recent slipping, it really can be done; they have to be favored against them now. A definite upset alert here. The game after is at Cimmerian, heavily favoring the Chinese. The final game is at Newcastle, which is almost equal to Cimmerian. With a 5-game winning streak heading into the playoffs, they would be a VERY tough out. I now have to think that they make it win by going 9-7. Time will tell....
Predicted finish: 9-7, 7th
I hope you all enjoyed these as much as last week. As always, I mean no disrespect to any team; I just try to spice up the rankings. Good luck this week, everyone!
Games left: 4
Z: clinched home-field throughout the playoffs
Y: clinched 1st-round home playoff game
X: clinched playoff birth
Standings:
1-Y: Melbourne Thorny Devils, 13-0
2-Y: Bikini Atoll Mushroom Clouds, 12-1
3-X: Tonga Thunderbirds, 11-2
4: Christchurch Knightmares, 9-4
5: The Four Horsemen, 9-4
6: El Fuego, 8-5
7: Coney Island Warriors, 8-5
8: North Marinara Islands Ramekins, 7-6
9: Dunedin Wolverines, 7-6
10: Chinese Bandits, 6-7
Team scenarios:
Melbourne Thorny Devils: 1st, 13-0
The resident undefeated behemoth reigns supreme this week thanks to a 34-14 victory over a feisty, determined Christchurch squad. Likewise, the Devils clinched a home playoff birth this week and move another step closer toward locking down home-field advantage for the playoffs. Next week brings the team's final home game against an overwhelmed Mauna Kea team, which should be a sizable victory. Then, the Devils take on a reeling team at El Fuego, which it appears will likely be unable to avoid this loss. The final game at Florida Parishes may test the Devils, but should also be a Devils victory. The road to an undefeated regular season looks pretty well-kept.
Predicted finish: 16-0, 1st
2. Bikini Atoll Mushroom Clouds: 2nd, 12-1
The Mushrooms continue to roll along after pasting Redscape with a 58-0 shutout. The Clouds also have locked themselves into at least one home-field game, and will likely receive two, barring a disaster. The Clouds have a very winnable home game against Cimmeria next. They finish the regular season at Coney Island (a should-win) and at Sydney. The Sydney game is intriguing, for they are one of the more talented teams in Alpha, but have lost three straight games. I think the Clouds have enough great players and coaching to win that game; still, we can't totally discount Sydney, can we?
Predicted finish: 15-1, 2nd
3. Tonga Thunderbirds: 3rd, 11-2
Tonga came roaring back after last week's loss, pasting a triple-digit shutout on the hapless Ronnie Rockers. It doesn't appear, though, that Tonga should lose another game until the playoffs, at least. Next, the Thunderbirds travel to Uluru, for a very winnable game. The final two games are again at home. First comes Redscape (a should-win). Next, Illesheim comes calling. The Krauts have posted a solid record (10-3, 4th Alpha), but the Thunderbirds look to have too much depth for Illesheim to counteract. However, Tonga cannot take this one lightly.
Predicted finish: 14-2, 3rd
4. Christchurch Knightmares: 9-4, 4th
The race for the final home playoff game is *really* starting to cook now. Christchurch has not mathematically clinched a playoff spot, but one more win or Dunedin/NMI loss will do it (and come on, they still play FPQA). It's definitely not a stunner that Christchurch lost to Melbourne, and the Knightmares should be proud of their performance. Next comes a game at FPQA, who seems to be up next for every team looking to make a statement after loss to the Devils. The final two games are against Uluru (a "should-win") and against Thatto Heath (here's your correction, Chris, haha). That final game has upset potential, but I believe Christchurch has too much firepower and will knoch the Smashers' teeth out.
Predicted finish: 12-4, 4th
5. The Four Horsemen: 9-4, 5th
The Horsemen find themselves in 5th thanks to a hotly-contested midseason loss to Christchurch; it appears that the Horsemen are highly unlikely to catch up, too. It's crazy to think that the Horsemen have not yet clinched a playoff birth, but a win or a Dunedin loss, and they will clinch in Week 13. The Horsemen must have made a deal with the schedule-makers, since the last three weeks are not overly taxing. Tasmania didn't put up much of a fight this last week, losing 41-3. Next week, the Horsemen travel to NMI, which should be a win (but should not be overlooked). The next game is a home date against Dunedin (which is a near mirror image of NMI). The final game is against the English Wasps, the weakest team in Alpha; not surprisingly, this is a near-lock. A grudge match against Christchurch should await.
Predicted finish: 12-4, 5th
6. El Fuego: 8-5, 6th
Hmmm. I said this game had upset potential last week, and look what Dunedin just did! That 23-14 loss is going to sting badly for El Fuego. It didn't drop them any in the rankings for now, but a beast of a closing schedule does not shine brightly on El Fuego. I said that El Fuego could go 1-3, and it now looks like a reasonable proposition. The next game is at Chinese. I can't say that this game favors El Fuego now, since the Chinese are on a roll; this is a HUGE game for playoff ramifications. The next game is against Melbourne (which will look to send El Fuego spinning out of control. The finale is against Gainesville, where El Fuego should (and must) pick up a win. I now have to predict a 1-2 close to the season. If this happens, if Dunedin wins a virtual toss-up against South Australian, and if Chinese run the table, guess who's sitting at home for the playoffs? I would have NEVER though this might even possibly happen to this team, especially a team who started out the season with a scoring advantage of 179-0. Incredible. They better hope South Australian beats Dunedin like I predict.
Predicted finish: 9-7, 8th
7. Coney Island Warriors: 7th, 8-5
The "Cardiac Kids" were truly anything but that this week, pasting Uluru 37-14 and ending any bleak playoff hopes for the Rockies. Coney Island next plays at Redscape which should add another win to the Warriors' tally. The next game is against Bikini Atoll, and I cannot foresee a Coney Island upset. The finale is against Solomon Island, which just doesn't have the firepower to upset Coney Island. 2-1 looks mighty likely, and I'd bet Coney Island would *love* to have that early season game against El Fuego back (especially if a fluky upset happens).
Predicted finish: 10-6, 6th
8. Northern Mariana Islands Ramekins: 8th, 7-6
The playoff picture's getting HOT! NMI holds the tiebreaker due to the Week 1 win over Dunedin. NMI took care of business this week by putting up 51 points on Cimmerian. However, the next game is against the Horsemen, which the Horsemen really should win. The next-to-last game is at Tasmania (which is almost a definite for NMI). The final game is against Easter Island. This last game is HUGE. A win likely gets NMI in, but a loss has the chance to keep them off the field in the postseason. Frankly, I think Easter Island has the edge right now. NMI just cannot afford a loss right here, and the El Fuego-Chinese matchup next week is HUGE for NMI. With a loss in Week 16 and a Chinese win next week, NMI is left outside the playoffs. Did anyone foresee this when NMI was 5-1?
Predicted finish: 8-8, 9th
9. Dunedin Wolverines: 9th, 7-6
Wow. You predict that a team will finish with a losing record, and then they pounce all over the 6th-ranked team in the conference. Boy, now does that Week 1 loss ever sting, not just because of the tiebreak lost to NMI, but because the extra win is gone. Dunedin reminds me more and more every week of NMI: a 5-2 start, only to be on the outside-looking-in now. The next game is against Cimmerian, and Dunedin has a large advantage. The game after is at the Four Horsemen, where the Horsemen have to be favored. The finale is against South Australian. I know, I have to favor South Australian due to the blocking and rushing defense. However, if Dunedin plays as well as they did today, they could finish 2-1, which would be HUGE in the playoff picture, since they hold the tiebreaker over Chinese AND El Fuego. They'd even vault to 7th over both teams. It's crazy how one unexpected loss can affect so many teams.
Predicted finish: 8-8, 10th
10. Chinese Bandits: 6-7, 10th
This team is really starting to heat up, especially after the 24-point victory over Mauna Kea. Yes, I know that Chinese would have to win out to make the playoffs, but with El Fuego's recent slipping, it really can be done; they have to be favored against them now. A definite upset alert here. The game after is at Cimmerian, heavily favoring the Chinese. The final game is at Newcastle, which is almost equal to Cimmerian. With a 5-game winning streak heading into the playoffs, they would be a VERY tough out. I now have to think that they make it win by going 9-7. Time will tell....
Predicted finish: 9-7, 7th
I hope you all enjoyed these as much as last week. As always, I mean no disrespect to any team; I just try to spice up the rankings. Good luck this week, everyone!
Last edited Jul 6, 2008 23:00:01
