Calculated Elo Ratings for the Oceania Pro League after wk 11 games...
FFLW Caninites Zeta 177.53
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 173.56
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 158.11
Brisbane Gods Zeta 139.92
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 123.29
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 109.78
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 103.20
New England Burning Pride Alpha 98.88
Las Vegas Outlaws Zeta 90.54
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 87.80
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 78.26
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 57.46
IC Incinerators Zeta 46.95
The U Canes Zeta 37.11
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 24.25
Canberra Strike Alpha 18.25
Big Island Growas Zeta 16.34
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta -17.98
Brisbane Bandits Alpha -23.04
Tasmania Devils Alpha -24.86
Aussie Cardinals Alpha -28.45
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha -32.92
Saipan Fighters Zeta -75.86
Perth Scorpions Alpha -94.77
Auckland Flames Alpha -108.45
Outback Astronauts Zeta -116.03
Speightstown Rum Runners Alpha -130.46
Kiribati Blitz Zeta -130.65
Bermuda Pirates Zeta -141.77
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta -161.74
Hollywood Decepticons Alpha -222.20
Buen Retiro Longhorns Zeta -225.97
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Predicted Win Probabilities (prorated +40 elo for home team) for upcoming wk 12 intraconference games based on Elo data...
FFLW Caninites Zeta 0.928
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 0.876
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 0.783
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 0.754
Big Island Growas Zeta 0.730
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 0.729
The U Canes Zeta 0.714
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 0.648
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 0.623
Canberra Strike Alpha 0.622
New England Burning Pride Alpha 0.618
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 0.584
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha 0.582
Kiribati Blitz Zeta 0.573
IC Incinerators Zeta 0.536
Brisbane Gods Zeta 0.509
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 0.491
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 0.464
Bermuda Pirates Zeta 0.427
Speightstown Rum Runners Alpha 0.418
Las Vegas Outlaws Zeta 0.416
Tasmania Devils Alpha 0.382
Aussie Cardinals Alpha 0.378
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 0.377
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 0.352
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta 0.286
Auckland Flames Alpha 0.271
Outback Astronauts Zeta 0.270
Saipan Fighters Zeta 0.246
Perth Scorpions Alpha 0.217
Hollywood Decepticons Alpha 0.124
Buen Retiro Longhorns Zeta 0.072
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Upcoming Games of the Week (top combined Elo ratings):
Zeta: FFLivewire Cans (10-1-0, elo = 173.56, win prob = 0.491) at Brisbane Gods (10-1-0, elo = 139.92, win prob = 0.509)
Alpha: West Scranton Invaders (8-3-0, elo = 57.46, win prob = 0.352) at Newcastle Bearcats (10-1-0, elo = 123.29, win prob = 0.648)
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Upcoming Games of the Week (closest predicted win probability difference):
Zeta: also FFLivewire Cans (10-1-0, elo = 173.56, win prob = 0.491) at Brisbane Gods (10-1-0, elo = 139.92, win prob = 0.509)
Alpha: Dogdandy Enforcers (4-7-0, elo = -32.92, win prob = 0.582) at Speightstown Rum Runners (1-10-0, elo = -130.46, win prob = 0.418)
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caveats: This data is based on a limited data set of 11 points(games). Data sets above 30 points are recommended for reliable trend/regression analysis.
Additionally, since no cross-conference/cross-league games have been played yet, the different conferences were combined assuming that both conferences had identical overall conference strength.
notes: Elo "K value" = 20 (reg season 'friendly' matches) and starting Elo rating of zero for all teams starting at season's start. "Actual results" - Win=1, Tie=0.5, Loss=0
These ratings include home field advantage (dr=100 for Elo calc, prorated (3.33*week of season) for predicted win probabilities). Additionally, winning margin is factored into the ratings. "N" is calculated as [(Abs game score difference)/7], and "G" is fixed and = [(11+N)/8].
Please see http://www.eloratings.net/system.html for further methodology information.
NOT included in the ratings are team chemistry and schedule strength.
FFLW Caninites Zeta 177.53
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 173.56
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 158.11
Brisbane Gods Zeta 139.92
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 123.29
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 109.78
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 103.20
New England Burning Pride Alpha 98.88
Las Vegas Outlaws Zeta 90.54
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 87.80
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 78.26
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 57.46
IC Incinerators Zeta 46.95
The U Canes Zeta 37.11
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 24.25
Canberra Strike Alpha 18.25
Big Island Growas Zeta 16.34
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta -17.98
Brisbane Bandits Alpha -23.04
Tasmania Devils Alpha -24.86
Aussie Cardinals Alpha -28.45
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha -32.92
Saipan Fighters Zeta -75.86
Perth Scorpions Alpha -94.77
Auckland Flames Alpha -108.45
Outback Astronauts Zeta -116.03
Speightstown Rum Runners Alpha -130.46
Kiribati Blitz Zeta -130.65
Bermuda Pirates Zeta -141.77
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta -161.74
Hollywood Decepticons Alpha -222.20
Buen Retiro Longhorns Zeta -225.97
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Predicted Win Probabilities (prorated +40 elo for home team) for upcoming wk 12 intraconference games based on Elo data...
FFLW Caninites Zeta 0.928
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 0.876
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 0.783
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 0.754
Big Island Growas Zeta 0.730
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 0.729
The U Canes Zeta 0.714
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 0.648
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 0.623
Canberra Strike Alpha 0.622
New England Burning Pride Alpha 0.618
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 0.584
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha 0.582
Kiribati Blitz Zeta 0.573
IC Incinerators Zeta 0.536
Brisbane Gods Zeta 0.509
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 0.491
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 0.464
Bermuda Pirates Zeta 0.427
Speightstown Rum Runners Alpha 0.418
Las Vegas Outlaws Zeta 0.416
Tasmania Devils Alpha 0.382
Aussie Cardinals Alpha 0.378
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 0.377
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 0.352
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta 0.286
Auckland Flames Alpha 0.271
Outback Astronauts Zeta 0.270
Saipan Fighters Zeta 0.246
Perth Scorpions Alpha 0.217
Hollywood Decepticons Alpha 0.124
Buen Retiro Longhorns Zeta 0.072
-----------------------------------------------------------
Upcoming Games of the Week (top combined Elo ratings):
Zeta: FFLivewire Cans (10-1-0, elo = 173.56, win prob = 0.491) at Brisbane Gods (10-1-0, elo = 139.92, win prob = 0.509)
Alpha: West Scranton Invaders (8-3-0, elo = 57.46, win prob = 0.352) at Newcastle Bearcats (10-1-0, elo = 123.29, win prob = 0.648)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Upcoming Games of the Week (closest predicted win probability difference):
Zeta: also FFLivewire Cans (10-1-0, elo = 173.56, win prob = 0.491) at Brisbane Gods (10-1-0, elo = 139.92, win prob = 0.509)
Alpha: Dogdandy Enforcers (4-7-0, elo = -32.92, win prob = 0.582) at Speightstown Rum Runners (1-10-0, elo = -130.46, win prob = 0.418)
-----------------------------------------------------------
caveats: This data is based on a limited data set of 11 points(games). Data sets above 30 points are recommended for reliable trend/regression analysis.
Additionally, since no cross-conference/cross-league games have been played yet, the different conferences were combined assuming that both conferences had identical overall conference strength.
notes: Elo "K value" = 20 (reg season 'friendly' matches) and starting Elo rating of zero for all teams starting at season's start. "Actual results" - Win=1, Tie=0.5, Loss=0
These ratings include home field advantage (dr=100 for Elo calc, prorated (3.33*week of season) for predicted win probabilities). Additionally, winning margin is factored into the ratings. "N" is calculated as [(Abs game score difference)/7], and "G" is fixed and = [(11+N)/8].
Please see http://www.eloratings.net/system.html for further methodology information.
NOT included in the ratings are team chemistry and schedule strength.
