Originally posted by Rocdog21
back to back games
https://glb.warriorgeneral.com/game/game.pl?game_id=2997970
https://glb.warriorgeneral.com/game/game.pl?game_id=2997976
edit: It was 56 game winning streak. Another team I coordinate had a 70 game winning streak...got them confused. Thanks!
Let's take a look...
Alright, this was last season in Semi Pro Casual Elite #1. The human-owned Nassau Nightmare rode an impressive winning streak into the season and started off 14-0... before dropping back-to-back games to CPU-owned CPU-roster teams, Stuttgart and Grey, to close out the regular season. Nassau then ripped off 3 straight playoff wins to hoist a gold trophy, so at first glance, Nassau appears to be the real deal.
However, firstly, this is Casual. Weird shit happens in Casual, at a higher rate than in Regular. Casual teams are just a little more vulnerable to a few bad rolls because you simply have fewer options for mitigating risk. That's a feature, not a bug, but it must be considered nonetheless.
There was also a red flag for Nassau's owner and coordinators early in the season. Nassau's first game with Stuttgart was only a 39-0 win, and Nassau's first game with Grey was "only" a 74-0 win. That right there should've been a big flashing red warning light to Nassau's owners: something's wrong! Take these teams seriously when you play them again! I've seen this happen before, and I wondered why the owner of the human team didn't think to themselves, "Whoa, fuck, we only beat a CPU team by 39? Let's fix that for next time."
But that doesn't answer WHY the first games were closer-than-expected or why the second games were losses. A 56-game winning streak is impressive at first-glance... but how good were the opponents? Nassau is currently in Casual Regional Pro Elite #1, but when I run the effective-level script on that league, something jumps out: Nassau was the ONLY 240-day-old team to advance into this league. Casual Regional Pro #2 and #3 don't have any full 240-day-old teams at all.
Indeed, when I look through Nassau's Season 78 results, game after game after game was against teams with rosters that were almost entirely CPU dots. Nassau appears to have been the ONLY full-roster human team in their league last season, and possibly earlier. And Nassau was winning most of these games by rather pedestrian scores: 19-3, 26-6, 33-3, 22-20.
That's why Nassau had a 56-game winning streak -- not because Nassau is that good, but because their opponents were that bad. I would argue that if your human team can only muster a 22-20 win over a CPU-roster team, your human team is not as good as you think it is. Those two losses were not anomalies; they were unlikely-but-possible outcomes within a range of possibilities, and Nassau's close games against other CPU-roster teams should have been a warning that something wasn't right with Nassau. Maybe it's their offensive or defensive gameplans, maybe it's their energy settings, maybe it's their Depth Chart, I don't know. But Nassau was blinded by the number in the W column when they should've been paying more attention to margin of victory.