PLAYOFF SCENARIOS - after 14 games
Canada Conference
(Note - all below scenarios assume Syracuse will lose to Miami and Alabama.)
#1 Team Canada (13-1)
- Team Canada has clinched the 1-seed, regardless of whatever happens.
#2 Palm Bay Palookas (10-4)
Tie-breakers: Alabama 2-0, Valhalla 0-1
Points-allowed: 236
Remaining games: Valhalla, Team Canada
- Palm Bay has clinched a playoff spot.
- If Palm Bay wins just one of their two remaining games, they clinch the 2-seed. Alabama would only be able to tie them, and Palm Bay owns the head-to-head tie-breaker.
- If Palm Bay loses both of their two remaining games, they can finish anywhere from #2 to #4. If Alabama loses to Team Canada and Miami upsets Valhalla, Palm Bay and Alabama would finish tied, and Palm Bay would take #2 based on head-to-head. If Alabama loses to Team Canada and Valhalla defeats Miami, that would create a 3-way round-robin tie between Palm Bay, Alabama and Valhalla for 2-through-4 which would have to be broken by points-allowed, in which Palm Bay holds a significant-but-not-insurmountable advantage. If Alabama upsets Team Canada, then Palm Bay would finish #3 (if Miami beats Valhalla) or #4 (if Valhalla beats Miami to tie Palm Bay in the standings).
#3 Alabama Tidesports Crimson Tide (9-5)
Tie-breakers: Palm Bay 0-2, Valhalla 2-0, Miami 1-1
Points-allowed: 289
Remaining games: Team Canada, Syracuse
- Alabama has clinched a playoff spot, assuming they defeat Syracuse.
- If Alabama upsets Team Canada, they clinch the 3-seed.
- Alabama can take the 2-seed if they upset Team Canada AND Palm Bay loses both remaining games.
- If Alabama loses to Team Canada, they finish as the 3-seed -- EXCEPT for one scenario. If Valhalla beats both Palm Bay and Miami and if Team Canada beats Palm Bay, that would create a 3-way round-robin tie between Palm Bay, Alabama and Valhalla for 2-through-4 which would have to be broken by points-allowed. In that one scenario, Alabama could finish as high as #2 or as low as #4 depending on how points-allowed shakes out.
#4 Valhalla Hammer (8-6)
Tie-breakers: Palm Bay 1-0, Alabama 0-2, Miami 0-1
Points-allowed: 294
Remaining games: Palm Bay, Miami
- If Valhalla loses their finale against Miami, Valhalla is eliminated from the playoffs regardless of the Palm Bay game.
- If Valhalla beats Miami but loses to Palm Bay, Valhalla finishes as the 4-seed.
- If Valhalla beats Miami and Palm Bay but Palm Bay upsets Team Canada, Valhalla finishes as the 4-seed.
- If Valhalla beats Miami and Palm Bay, plus Team Canada beats Palm Bay, then the Team Canada-Alabama game comes into play. If Alabama upsets Team Canada, Valhalla would finish as the 3-seed. If Alabama loses to Team Canada, that would create a 3-way round robin tie between Palm Bay, Alabama and Valhalla for 2-through-4 which would have to be broken by points-allowed. In that one scenario, Valhalla could finish as high as #2 or as low as #4 depending on how points-allowed shakes out.
#5 Miami Roadfrogs (7-7)
Tie-breakers: Valhalla 1-0
Remaining games: Syracuse, Valhalla
- Miami has only one path to the playoffs: beat Syracuse and Valhalla, and finish as the 4-seed. If Miami loses to Valhalla, Miami is eliminated.
#6 Syracuse Orange (2-12)
- Syracuse has been eliminated from playoff contention.
USA Conference
(Note - all below scenarios assume Berkeley will defeat Mad Griffin.)
#1 Paris Naughty Dawgs (12-2)
- Paris has clinched the 1-seed, regardless of whatever happens.
#2 Berkeley Beatniks (9-5)
Tie-breakers: Rock N Roll 1-1
Points-allowed: 165
Remaining games: Paris, Mad Griffin
#3 Rock N Roll Damnation (9-5)
Tie-breakers: Rock N Roll 1-1
Points-allowed: 261
Remaining games: Wild, Paris
- In all scenarios, I'm assuming Berkeley will defeat Mad Griffin.
- Both Berkeley and RNRD have clinched a top-3 finish, but neither can finish any higher than #2.
- If Berkeley upsets Paris and if RNRD loses to either Wild or Paris, Berkeley clinches the 2-seed outright.
- If Berkeley loses to Paris but RNRD loses to both Wild and Paris, Berkeley clinches the 2-seed outright.
- If Berkeley upsets Paris and RNRD beats both Wild and Paris, Berkeley and Paris would finish tied at 11-5.
- If Berkeley loses to Paris and if RNRD splits their remaining games, Berkeley and Paris would finish tied at 10-6.
- If Berkeley and RNRD finish tied in the standings, their split head-to-head record means the tie would be settled by points-allowed, where Berkeley currently holds a 96-point advantage. That advantage will likely hold up, which means Berkeley would likely finish #2 and RNRD #3 in any tie scenario.
- RNRD's only scenario to clinch the 2-seed outright is this: RNRD beats both Wild and Paris, and Paris defeats Berkeley. RNRD would finish #2 at 11-5, and Berkeley would finish #3 at 10-6.
#4 Wild Animals (4-10)
- Wild can finish no higher or lower than the 4-seed, regardless of whatever happens.
#5 All The King's Men (1-13)
- ATKM has been eliminated from playoff contention.
#6 Mad Griffin (0-14)
- Mad Griffin has been eliminated from playoff contention.