Calculated Elo Ratings for the Oceania Pro League after wk 10 games...
FFLW Caninites Zeta 162.33
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 153.11
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 149.07
Brisbane Gods Zeta 119.00
Las Vegas Outlaws Zeta 111.47
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 106.91
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 95.37
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 93.28
New England Burning Pride Alpha 91.85
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 70.09
IC Incinerators Zeta 67.41
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 59.91
The U Canes Zeta 55.46
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 51.59
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 33.29
Canberra Strike Alpha 26.08
Big Island Growas Zeta -5.18
Tasmania Devils Alpha -8.47
Aussie Cardinals Alpha -10.74
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta -30.26
Brisbane Bandits Alpha -32.02
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha -42.30
Saipan Fighters Zeta -60.65
Perth Scorpions Alpha -87.75
Auckland Flames Alpha -99.07
Outback Astronauts Zeta -99.53
Kiribati Blitz Zeta -118.37
Bermuda Pirates Zeta -121.03
Speightstown Rum Runners Alpha -121.48
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta -182.48
Buen Retiro Longhorns Zeta -204.45
Hollywood Decepticons Alpha -216.33
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Predicted Win Probabilities for upcoming wk 11 intraconference games based on Elo data...
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 0.852
New England Burning Pride Alpha 0.776
FFLW Caninites Zeta 0.75
Big Island Growas Zeta 0.72
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 0.71
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 0.706
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 0.674
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 0.672
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 0.648
Bermuda Pirates Zeta 0.638
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha 0.631
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 0.61
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 0.57
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 0.56
The U Canes Zeta 0.546
Las Vegas Outlaws Zeta 0.542
Brisbane Gods Zeta 0.46
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 0.45
Aussie Cardinals Alpha 0.437
IC Incinerators Zeta 0.430
Tasmania Devils Alpha 0.389
Auckland Flames Alpha 0.37
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta 0.36
Canberra Strike Alpha 0.35
Kiribati Blitz Zeta 0.33
Speightstown Rum Runners Alpha 0.33
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 0.29
Outback Astronauts Zeta 0.289
Buen Retiro Longhorns Zeta 0.282
Saipan Fighters Zeta 0.255
Perth Scorpions Alpha 0.22
Hollywood Decepticons Alpha 0.15
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Upcoming Games of the Week (top combined Elo ratings):
Zeta: Brisbane Gods (9-1-0) at Las Vegas Outlaws (8-2-0)
Alpha: Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels (6-4-0) at Brantford Mustangs (10-0-0)
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Upcoming Games of the Week (closest predicted win probability difference):
Zeta: also Brisbane Gods (9-1-0) at Las Vegas Outlaws (8-2-0)
Alpha: Emerald City Flying Monkeys (7-3-0) at Aussie Cardinals (4-6-0)
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caveats: This data is based on a limited data set of 10 points(games). Data sets above 30 points are recommended for reliable trend/regression analysis.
Additionally, since no cross-conference/cross-league games have been played yet, the different conferences were combined assuming that both conferences had identical overall conference strength.
notes: Elo "K value" = 20 (reg season 'friendly' matches) and starting Elo rating of zero for all teams starting at season's start. "Actual results" - Win=1, Tie=0.5, Loss=0
These ratings include home field advantage (dr=100 for Elo calc, prorated (3.33*week of season) for predicted win probabilities). Additionally, winning margin is factored into the ratings. "N" is calculated as [(Abs game score difference)/7], and "G" is fixed and = [(11+N)/8].
Please see http://www.eloratings.net/system.html for further methodology information.
NOT included in the ratings are team chemistry and schedule strength.
