1 - C-Town MF'n Hood (13-2) - Remaining opponent - Cincinnati (10-5) - Lock for the top seed.
2 - Korb Destroyers (12-3) - Remaining opponent - SSM (4-11) - Lock for the second seed.
That much I know for certain. The seeding for thiis next group of teams will not be decided until every game is played. However, they are all guaranteed playoff spots.
3 - Cincinnati Shockers (10-5) - Remaining opponent - Hood (13-2) - Won game that they were supposed to win. Win over Hood would guarantee them the 3 seed. Loss to Hood would put them at 10-6 and potentially part of the mix of tie-breakers I'm going to try to tackled below. Of the teams at 10-5 or 9-6, they have the worst points allowed, if the tie-breakers come down to that.
4 - Sofia Spiders (10-5) - Remaining Opponent - Dallas (8-7). Good win for Sofia, which coupled with Asau's loss puts Sofia in great shape to get a top 4 seed. If they beat Dallas, they are a lock for a 3 or 4 seed. If they lose, they will fall into the 10-6 mix which I'm going to try to tackled below. They have Alpha's best points allowed total if the tie-breakers come down to that.
5 - Asau Pirates (9-6) - Remaining Opponent - HHWC (7-8) - Of the teams at 10-5 and 9-6, they have the third best points allowed total. Will almost certainly be a part of some tie-breaker (see below for my attempt to cover the most likely scenarios).
6 - Eastern Anubis Gurupies (9-6) - Remaining Opponent - Nairobi (6-8) - Better points allowed than Dallas and Cincy, 3 points behind Asau, and further behind Devonport and Sofia. Will almost certainly be a part of some tie-breaker (see below for my attempt to cover the most likely scenarios).
7 - Devonport Devils (9-6) - Remaining Opponent - E-City (7-8) - Devonport won the games they were supposed to win down the stretch and have locked up a playoff berth in our second trip to WL. We have the second best points allowed in Alpha. Will almost certainly be a part of some tie-breaker (see below for my attempt to cover the most likely scenarios).
This is the bubble group, with Dallas currently being on the bubble, but a couple of teams waiting in the wings, should Dallas lose.
8 - Dallas Longhorns (8-7) - Remaining Opponent - Sofia (10-5) - Win and they are in as at least the #8 seed (see tie-breakers for some of the possible scenarios). If they lose, they will need HHWC and Nairobi to also lose in order to ensure they have a playoff spot. Thus, for all intents and purposes, Week 16 is Dallas's play-in game.
9 - Honolulu Hurricane Wife Carriers (7-8) - Remaining Opponent - Asau (9-6) - Need to beat Asau and for Dallas to lose. If that happens, they are in as the 8 seed by virtue of their wins over Dallas, Nairobi, and E-City. Otherwise, an all time WL great is demoting.
10 - Nairobi Warthogs (7-8) - Remaining Opponent - EAG (9-6) - Need to beat EAG and for Dallas and HHWC to lose. If that happens, they are in as the 8 seed by virtue of their wins over Dallas and E-City.
Officially Eliminated
11 - E-City Mercenaries (7-8) - Since they lost to Dallas, even if the rest of the teams lost, they could not get past the tie-breaker with Dallas to get the 8 seed.
12 - Rage Quitters (6-9)
13 - All The King's Men (4-11)
14 - South Side Mafia (4-11)
15 - Lawrence Stop Signs (2-13)
16 - Holland Pinoy All Stars Srs (2-13)
----------------------------
Here is my attempt to handle the various situations and tie-breakers. This is a work in progress, so in all likelihood, I will add more later but hopefully still tonight.
Before I go any further, for a 4-way tie where 2 teams are 2-1 against the others, and the other two are 1-2, the tie between the 2-1 teams is determined by points allowed, not by their regular season game. This is counter-intuitive, but I knew that I had run into it in the past and tracked down the bug thread about it. http://goallineblitz.com/game/forum_thread.pl?thread_id=4253174&page=1#38110816 .
Situation 1 Hood beats Cincy; Sofia beats Dallas; EAG beats Nairobi; Devonport beats E-City; Asau beats HHWC
We'll call this one the chalk situation, since all of the winners are higher seeds as of right now. In theory, this is the most likely outcome.
*Sofia would be the only team at 11-5 and get the 3 seed.
*The teams at 10-6 would be: Cincy, Asau, EAG, and Devonport. The first tie-breaker is record vs. the others. Cincy would be 1-2, Asau would be 2-1, EAG would be 2-1, and Devonport would be 1-2. That would put Asau and EAG in the top half of the tie-breaker. Points allowed would determine who is top of those two, with Asau holding a 3 point advantage over EAG as of right now. Points allowed would determine the 6 and 7 seed as well, with Devonport holding an 82 point advantage over Cincy. Thus, the most likely seeding would be: #4 Asau, #5 EAG, #6 Devonport, #7 Cincy.
* Dallas would be the 8 seed as the only team at 8-8.
3 - Sofia, 4 - Asau, 5 - EAG, 6 - Devonport, 7 - Cincy, 8 - Dallas
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Situation 2 Hood beats Cincy; Dallas beats Sofia; EAG beats Nairobi; Devonport beats E-City; Asau beats HHWC
*There would be a 5 way tie at 10-6. Sofia would be 2-2, Devonport would be 1-3, Cincy would be 2-2, Asau would be 3-1, EAG would be 2-2. Thus, Asau would get the #3 seed and Devonport would be the #7 seed. 4-6 would be determined by points allowed. Sofia has 72 point lead over EAG and would almost certainly be the #4 seed. EAG has a 65 point lead over Cincy and would almost certainly be the #5 seed, leaving Cincy as the #6 seed.
* Dallas would be the only team at 9-7 and get the 8 seed.
3 - Asau, 4 - Sofia, 5 - EAG, 6 - Cincy, 7 - Devonport, 8 - Dallas
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Situation 3 Hood beats Cincy; Sofia beats Dallas; EAG beats Nairobi; Devonport beats E-City; HHWC beats Asau
*Sofia would be the only team at 11-5 and get the 3 seed.
*There would be a 3 way tie at 10-6 between Devonport, Cincy, and EAG. EAG beat both Devonport and Cincy and would be the 4 seed. Devonport beat Cincy and would be the 5 seed, leaving Cincy as the 6 seed.
*Asau would be the only team at 9-7 and would get the 7 seed.
*HHWC and Dallas would be tied at 8-8, with HHWC having beaten Dallas, and thus getting the 8 seed.
3 - Sofia, 4 - EAG, 5 - Devonport, 6 - Cincy, 7 - Asau, 8 - HHWC
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Situation 4 Hood beats Cincy; Dallas beats Sofia; EAG beats Nairobi; Devonport beats E-City; HHWC beats Asau
*There would be a 4-way tie at 10-6 b/t Sofia, EAG, Devonport, and Cincy. Sofia would be 2-1, EAG would be 2-1, Devonport would be 1-2, and Cincy would be 1-2. The Sofia / EAG tie would be broken by points allowed, with Sofia holding a 72 point lead over EAG and almost certainly getting the 3 seed, leaving EAG with the 4 seed. Cincy and Devonport would go to points allowed as well, with Devonport holding an 82 point lead over Cincy and thus almost certainly getting the 5 seed, leaving Cincy with the 6 seed.
*Asau and Dallas would be tied at 9-7, with Dallas winning the regular season game and getting the 7 seed, leaving Asau with the 8 seed.
3 - Sofia, 4 - EAG, 5 - Devonport, 6 - Cincy, 7 - Dallas, 8 - Asau
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more to come later
2 - Korb Destroyers (12-3) - Remaining opponent - SSM (4-11) - Lock for the second seed.
That much I know for certain. The seeding for thiis next group of teams will not be decided until every game is played. However, they are all guaranteed playoff spots.
3 - Cincinnati Shockers (10-5) - Remaining opponent - Hood (13-2) - Won game that they were supposed to win. Win over Hood would guarantee them the 3 seed. Loss to Hood would put them at 10-6 and potentially part of the mix of tie-breakers I'm going to try to tackled below. Of the teams at 10-5 or 9-6, they have the worst points allowed, if the tie-breakers come down to that.
4 - Sofia Spiders (10-5) - Remaining Opponent - Dallas (8-7). Good win for Sofia, which coupled with Asau's loss puts Sofia in great shape to get a top 4 seed. If they beat Dallas, they are a lock for a 3 or 4 seed. If they lose, they will fall into the 10-6 mix which I'm going to try to tackled below. They have Alpha's best points allowed total if the tie-breakers come down to that.
5 - Asau Pirates (9-6) - Remaining Opponent - HHWC (7-8) - Of the teams at 10-5 and 9-6, they have the third best points allowed total. Will almost certainly be a part of some tie-breaker (see below for my attempt to cover the most likely scenarios).
6 - Eastern Anubis Gurupies (9-6) - Remaining Opponent - Nairobi (6-8) - Better points allowed than Dallas and Cincy, 3 points behind Asau, and further behind Devonport and Sofia. Will almost certainly be a part of some tie-breaker (see below for my attempt to cover the most likely scenarios).
7 - Devonport Devils (9-6) - Remaining Opponent - E-City (7-8) - Devonport won the games they were supposed to win down the stretch and have locked up a playoff berth in our second trip to WL. We have the second best points allowed in Alpha. Will almost certainly be a part of some tie-breaker (see below for my attempt to cover the most likely scenarios).
This is the bubble group, with Dallas currently being on the bubble, but a couple of teams waiting in the wings, should Dallas lose.
8 - Dallas Longhorns (8-7) - Remaining Opponent - Sofia (10-5) - Win and they are in as at least the #8 seed (see tie-breakers for some of the possible scenarios). If they lose, they will need HHWC and Nairobi to also lose in order to ensure they have a playoff spot. Thus, for all intents and purposes, Week 16 is Dallas's play-in game.
9 - Honolulu Hurricane Wife Carriers (7-8) - Remaining Opponent - Asau (9-6) - Need to beat Asau and for Dallas to lose. If that happens, they are in as the 8 seed by virtue of their wins over Dallas, Nairobi, and E-City. Otherwise, an all time WL great is demoting.
10 - Nairobi Warthogs (7-8) - Remaining Opponent - EAG (9-6) - Need to beat EAG and for Dallas and HHWC to lose. If that happens, they are in as the 8 seed by virtue of their wins over Dallas and E-City.
Officially Eliminated
11 - E-City Mercenaries (7-8) - Since they lost to Dallas, even if the rest of the teams lost, they could not get past the tie-breaker with Dallas to get the 8 seed.
12 - Rage Quitters (6-9)
13 - All The King's Men (4-11)
14 - South Side Mafia (4-11)
15 - Lawrence Stop Signs (2-13)
16 - Holland Pinoy All Stars Srs (2-13)
----------------------------
Here is my attempt to handle the various situations and tie-breakers. This is a work in progress, so in all likelihood, I will add more later but hopefully still tonight.
Before I go any further, for a 4-way tie where 2 teams are 2-1 against the others, and the other two are 1-2, the tie between the 2-1 teams is determined by points allowed, not by their regular season game. This is counter-intuitive, but I knew that I had run into it in the past and tracked down the bug thread about it. http://goallineblitz.com/game/forum_thread.pl?thread_id=4253174&page=1#38110816 .
Situation 1 Hood beats Cincy; Sofia beats Dallas; EAG beats Nairobi; Devonport beats E-City; Asau beats HHWC
We'll call this one the chalk situation, since all of the winners are higher seeds as of right now. In theory, this is the most likely outcome.
*Sofia would be the only team at 11-5 and get the 3 seed.
*The teams at 10-6 would be: Cincy, Asau, EAG, and Devonport. The first tie-breaker is record vs. the others. Cincy would be 1-2, Asau would be 2-1, EAG would be 2-1, and Devonport would be 1-2. That would put Asau and EAG in the top half of the tie-breaker. Points allowed would determine who is top of those two, with Asau holding a 3 point advantage over EAG as of right now. Points allowed would determine the 6 and 7 seed as well, with Devonport holding an 82 point advantage over Cincy. Thus, the most likely seeding would be: #4 Asau, #5 EAG, #6 Devonport, #7 Cincy.
* Dallas would be the 8 seed as the only team at 8-8.
3 - Sofia, 4 - Asau, 5 - EAG, 6 - Devonport, 7 - Cincy, 8 - Dallas
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Situation 2 Hood beats Cincy; Dallas beats Sofia; EAG beats Nairobi; Devonport beats E-City; Asau beats HHWC
*There would be a 5 way tie at 10-6. Sofia would be 2-2, Devonport would be 1-3, Cincy would be 2-2, Asau would be 3-1, EAG would be 2-2. Thus, Asau would get the #3 seed and Devonport would be the #7 seed. 4-6 would be determined by points allowed. Sofia has 72 point lead over EAG and would almost certainly be the #4 seed. EAG has a 65 point lead over Cincy and would almost certainly be the #5 seed, leaving Cincy as the #6 seed.
* Dallas would be the only team at 9-7 and get the 8 seed.
3 - Asau, 4 - Sofia, 5 - EAG, 6 - Cincy, 7 - Devonport, 8 - Dallas
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Situation 3 Hood beats Cincy; Sofia beats Dallas; EAG beats Nairobi; Devonport beats E-City; HHWC beats Asau
*Sofia would be the only team at 11-5 and get the 3 seed.
*There would be a 3 way tie at 10-6 between Devonport, Cincy, and EAG. EAG beat both Devonport and Cincy and would be the 4 seed. Devonport beat Cincy and would be the 5 seed, leaving Cincy as the 6 seed.
*Asau would be the only team at 9-7 and would get the 7 seed.
*HHWC and Dallas would be tied at 8-8, with HHWC having beaten Dallas, and thus getting the 8 seed.
3 - Sofia, 4 - EAG, 5 - Devonport, 6 - Cincy, 7 - Asau, 8 - HHWC
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Situation 4 Hood beats Cincy; Dallas beats Sofia; EAG beats Nairobi; Devonport beats E-City; HHWC beats Asau
*There would be a 4-way tie at 10-6 b/t Sofia, EAG, Devonport, and Cincy. Sofia would be 2-1, EAG would be 2-1, Devonport would be 1-2, and Cincy would be 1-2. The Sofia / EAG tie would be broken by points allowed, with Sofia holding a 72 point lead over EAG and almost certainly getting the 3 seed, leaving EAG with the 4 seed. Cincy and Devonport would go to points allowed as well, with Devonport holding an 82 point lead over Cincy and thus almost certainly getting the 5 seed, leaving Cincy with the 6 seed.
*Asau and Dallas would be tied at 9-7, with Dallas winning the regular season game and getting the 7 seed, leaving Asau with the 8 seed.
3 - Sofia, 4 - EAG, 5 - Devonport, 6 - Cincy, 7 - Dallas, 8 - Asau
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more to come later
Edited by Plankton on Aug 6, 2011 20:12:04
Edited by Plankton on Aug 6, 2011 18:30:27
Edited by Plankton on Aug 5, 2011 20:53:43
Edited by Plankton on Aug 3, 2011 09:08:57
Edited by Plankton on Aug 2, 2011 23:36:53
