Let's take a quick look at the playoffs.
The top 4 teams have clinched home field for the playoffs. The order of their rankings can still change in these last 4 weeks. I believe the final order will be:
#1 DECATUR 15-1
#2 Honolulu 14-2
#3 Komodo 14-2 (lost to Skulls)
#4 Christmas 13-3
#5 Devonport plays AAC and Alaska. Probably will win both, but not guaranteed. Even if both are losses, Devonport is in the playoffs. Should end #5 and 12-4.
#6 Port Moresby plays Komodo and Samoa. Probably loses to Komodo, but should win the Samoa game (although either could be wins or losses) to seal 6th at 10-6. Even if both were losses, they will make the playoffs.
That leaves two spots available.
AAC is 6-6 and plays Devonport and Komodo. Probably ends 8-8.
Alaska is 6-6 and plays Christmas and Devonport. Probably ends 8-8.
Samoa is 5-7 and plays Port Moresby. Probably ends 8-8.
Fiji is 6-6, but will lose at least 3 more to end 7-9 or 6-10 and out of the playoffs.
Dune is 5-7, but plays DECATUR, Honolulu and Alaska. Even two losses will put them out of the playoffs.
I'm not sure who will win the 3 way tie breaker between AAC, Alaska and Samoa. An unexpected win by any of these teams will put them in.
So, let's look at this week's games. The obvious big game is the showdown between the top two teams.
DECATUR STALEYS (11-1) vs Honolulu Skulls (11-1)
Who is going to be the regular season top dog? The Matchup gives the edge to Honolulu, but who really cares what the Matchup says. Honolulu has had the strongest defense this season. DECATUR has had the strongest offense. The STALEYS were upset early this season in week 4 by Komodo (38-28), but haven't been in a close game since (closest was 34 points). Not only do they have the strongest offensive attack, they also have the second strongest defense. The Skulls were upset early this season in week 2 by Devonport (27-17), but haven't lost since. However, they have had a couple of scares along the way, defeating Samoa 17-10, Port Moresby 40-33 and Alaska 48-44. If we compare how the STALEYS did against those same teams, DECATUR beat Samoa 47-13, Port Moresby 52-16, and Alaska last week 44-0. But Honolulu beat Komodo, the one team that beat DECATUR, 37-10. This should be a great game. And the bragging rights won't be based on the rest of the season, but on what happens this game (at least until the playoffs). Will it be the tandem DECATUR rushing attack of HB Emmitt Duckets (234 Rush, 1,573yds; 14 Rec, 203.5yds; 33 TD) and HB Rohn Jiggins (245 Rush, 2,123.5yds; 2 Rec, 20yds; 24 TD) who have combined for 3920 yards of offense and 57 TDs, or the conference leading passing attack led by Honolulu's QB Terrell "The Terror" Pryor (QB Rating 122.2, 409/580, 5,041.5yds, 46 TD, 1 Int) with his solid group of receivers, 6 with over 500 yards each? But, neither team is one dimensional on offense and will give these top notch defenses a real challenge. Good luck to both teams. In the end, this prognosticator thinks that the STALEYS have a slight edge and will take the game by 7 with a score of 31-24.
Christmas Islanders (10-2) vs Ayers Rock Krakens (3-9)
Christmas has been very dominant all season and are focusing on a few refinements before the playoffs - and that is where Ayers Rock enters the picture. The Krakens have found that AA life is very difficult and will regroup and step up next season to challenge. But it's not next season yet, and they are about to get hit by a steam roller - 2 in fact. This will be a long day for the Krakens as the Islanders roll again. Christmas by 41, 58-17.
Komodo Dragons (10-2) vs Port Moresby (7-5)
This will be another good game to watch this week. The overall record is misleading as these teams are not that far apart. In fact, I would not be surprised if Port Moresby pulled off an upset. I may not be surprised by it, but that doesn't mean that I think it is going to happen. Komodo has been playing very strong and following their Moving Wall down the field should take this contest. If they make a mistake, then the Scallywags may jump in and snatch the victory, but Komodo has played pretty flawless this season only giving up the ball 7 times (5 ints and 2 lost fumbles). Komodo will win by 14, 35-21.
Devonport Devils (8-4) vs An Album Cover (6-6)
Devonport has finally managed to work their way up from their tough 4-4 start into 5th place, which is probably pretty close to where they belong. However, this week they face one of my scary opponents in An Album Cover. AAC is very solid and has a history of playing very well in games against higher ranked opponents. This season they have seemed to be a respectable playoff team all season - no real stunning upsets or losses. Can they win this game? Absolutely. Will they win this game? Probably not. I think the Devils have found their stride and will ride it into the playoffs. Devonport by 10, 30-20.
Alaska Wild (6-6) vs Rochester Iroquois CPU (4-8)
Alaska is having a great season and looks very likely to make it into the playoffs. A couple of days ago, this game looked like it might be a tough one with the resurgent Iroquois. But now that they went CPU and lost all their players, this is a walk in the park for Alaska. I'm not sure how to project it, but I'll say Alaska by maybe 65-14.
Fiji Rage (6-6) vs Dunedin Drones (5-7)
Fiji started off strong, faultered a little and is now selling players and looking to move down and re-group. Dunedin has found AA difficult, but has managed to play well and be competitive in most of their games. Unfortunately, their early loss to Dayton may be what keeps them out of the playoffs. But they have proven that they belong in AA and will be a force to reckon with next season. As for this game, I think I will pick Dunedin to pull out the win by 9, 33-24.
Samoa Savages(5-7) vs Suva Sparklets (0-16)
Samoa has really come on strong the second half of the season and still has a chance at the playoffs. Obviously, Suva will not cause the Savages to stumble in their quest. Samoa by 150-3.
Dayton Gumslingers (2-10) vs Lexington Cruise Lines(1-11)
Dayton has the chance today to earn back their N. Wins have been difficult for both these teams to come by. In fact, of their combined 3 wins to date, 2 have been against Suva. Dayton will firmly show which of these lower teams are superior today as they win by 25, 45-20.
That's it for week 13. Everyone enjoy!
The top 4 teams have clinched home field for the playoffs. The order of their rankings can still change in these last 4 weeks. I believe the final order will be:
#1 DECATUR 15-1
#2 Honolulu 14-2
#3 Komodo 14-2 (lost to Skulls)
#4 Christmas 13-3
#5 Devonport plays AAC and Alaska. Probably will win both, but not guaranteed. Even if both are losses, Devonport is in the playoffs. Should end #5 and 12-4.
#6 Port Moresby plays Komodo and Samoa. Probably loses to Komodo, but should win the Samoa game (although either could be wins or losses) to seal 6th at 10-6. Even if both were losses, they will make the playoffs.
That leaves two spots available.
AAC is 6-6 and plays Devonport and Komodo. Probably ends 8-8.
Alaska is 6-6 and plays Christmas and Devonport. Probably ends 8-8.
Samoa is 5-7 and plays Port Moresby. Probably ends 8-8.
Fiji is 6-6, but will lose at least 3 more to end 7-9 or 6-10 and out of the playoffs.
Dune is 5-7, but plays DECATUR, Honolulu and Alaska. Even two losses will put them out of the playoffs.
I'm not sure who will win the 3 way tie breaker between AAC, Alaska and Samoa. An unexpected win by any of these teams will put them in.
So, let's look at this week's games. The obvious big game is the showdown between the top two teams.
DECATUR STALEYS (11-1) vs Honolulu Skulls (11-1)
Who is going to be the regular season top dog? The Matchup gives the edge to Honolulu, but who really cares what the Matchup says. Honolulu has had the strongest defense this season. DECATUR has had the strongest offense. The STALEYS were upset early this season in week 4 by Komodo (38-28), but haven't been in a close game since (closest was 34 points). Not only do they have the strongest offensive attack, they also have the second strongest defense. The Skulls were upset early this season in week 2 by Devonport (27-17), but haven't lost since. However, they have had a couple of scares along the way, defeating Samoa 17-10, Port Moresby 40-33 and Alaska 48-44. If we compare how the STALEYS did against those same teams, DECATUR beat Samoa 47-13, Port Moresby 52-16, and Alaska last week 44-0. But Honolulu beat Komodo, the one team that beat DECATUR, 37-10. This should be a great game. And the bragging rights won't be based on the rest of the season, but on what happens this game (at least until the playoffs). Will it be the tandem DECATUR rushing attack of HB Emmitt Duckets (234 Rush, 1,573yds; 14 Rec, 203.5yds; 33 TD) and HB Rohn Jiggins (245 Rush, 2,123.5yds; 2 Rec, 20yds; 24 TD) who have combined for 3920 yards of offense and 57 TDs, or the conference leading passing attack led by Honolulu's QB Terrell "The Terror" Pryor (QB Rating 122.2, 409/580, 5,041.5yds, 46 TD, 1 Int) with his solid group of receivers, 6 with over 500 yards each? But, neither team is one dimensional on offense and will give these top notch defenses a real challenge. Good luck to both teams. In the end, this prognosticator thinks that the STALEYS have a slight edge and will take the game by 7 with a score of 31-24.
Christmas Islanders (10-2) vs Ayers Rock Krakens (3-9)
Christmas has been very dominant all season and are focusing on a few refinements before the playoffs - and that is where Ayers Rock enters the picture. The Krakens have found that AA life is very difficult and will regroup and step up next season to challenge. But it's not next season yet, and they are about to get hit by a steam roller - 2 in fact. This will be a long day for the Krakens as the Islanders roll again. Christmas by 41, 58-17.
Komodo Dragons (10-2) vs Port Moresby (7-5)
This will be another good game to watch this week. The overall record is misleading as these teams are not that far apart. In fact, I would not be surprised if Port Moresby pulled off an upset. I may not be surprised by it, but that doesn't mean that I think it is going to happen. Komodo has been playing very strong and following their Moving Wall down the field should take this contest. If they make a mistake, then the Scallywags may jump in and snatch the victory, but Komodo has played pretty flawless this season only giving up the ball 7 times (5 ints and 2 lost fumbles). Komodo will win by 14, 35-21.
Devonport Devils (8-4) vs An Album Cover (6-6)
Devonport has finally managed to work their way up from their tough 4-4 start into 5th place, which is probably pretty close to where they belong. However, this week they face one of my scary opponents in An Album Cover. AAC is very solid and has a history of playing very well in games against higher ranked opponents. This season they have seemed to be a respectable playoff team all season - no real stunning upsets or losses. Can they win this game? Absolutely. Will they win this game? Probably not. I think the Devils have found their stride and will ride it into the playoffs. Devonport by 10, 30-20.
Alaska Wild (6-6) vs Rochester Iroquois CPU (4-8)
Alaska is having a great season and looks very likely to make it into the playoffs. A couple of days ago, this game looked like it might be a tough one with the resurgent Iroquois. But now that they went CPU and lost all their players, this is a walk in the park for Alaska. I'm not sure how to project it, but I'll say Alaska by maybe 65-14.
Fiji Rage (6-6) vs Dunedin Drones (5-7)
Fiji started off strong, faultered a little and is now selling players and looking to move down and re-group. Dunedin has found AA difficult, but has managed to play well and be competitive in most of their games. Unfortunately, their early loss to Dayton may be what keeps them out of the playoffs. But they have proven that they belong in AA and will be a force to reckon with next season. As for this game, I think I will pick Dunedin to pull out the win by 9, 33-24.
Samoa Savages(5-7) vs Suva Sparklets (0-16)
Samoa has really come on strong the second half of the season and still has a chance at the playoffs. Obviously, Suva will not cause the Savages to stumble in their quest. Samoa by 150-3.
Dayton Gumslingers (2-10) vs Lexington Cruise Lines(1-11)
Dayton has the chance today to earn back their N. Wins have been difficult for both these teams to come by. In fact, of their combined 3 wins to date, 2 have been against Suva. Dayton will firmly show which of these lower teams are superior today as they win by 25, 45-20.
That's it for week 13. Everyone enjoy!
Last edited Mar 20, 2009 13:40:50
