It is week #15 and we have just 2 weeks left until the playoffs. The playoff picture is getting much clearer – let’s have a look.
Clinched a home field spot:
Sydney, Perth, Waikiki
Clinched a playoff spot:
Apia, Devonport, Rochester
The just leaves two spots open. Two teams (DECATUR and Samoa) have a two game lead over the rest of the pack, so if they can win at least one of their last 2 games, then they are in. That looks like a given for DECATUR as they have Intergalactic for one game (their other game is Komodo). However, Samoa has two playoff teams to play (Rochester and Sydney), so they have to pull an upset to guarantee themselves a spot. If they lose both games, then that leaves the door open for Komodo, Fiji and Port Moresby to try to win both of their remaining games to tie Samoa at 8-8. For those 3 their tough games left are: Komodo would have to beat DECATUR, Fiji would have to beat Rochester, and Port Moresby would have to beat Devonport and Apia. Samoa beat both Komodo and Fiji, so they would win the tie breaker if it is just two teams tied. Samoa lost to Port Moresby, but Port Moresby also has the most difficult road to get to 8-8. In all likelihood, DECATUR will end up #7 and Samoa will end up #8.
So what’s going to happen in week #15… For one thing, there are some great match-ups: 1 vs 4, and 2 vs 3. Sounds like playoff time already! Let’s see what this early look will tell us.
#1 Sydney Sea Wasps (14-0) vs #4 Waikiki Wrecks (12-2)
This is a great late season clash of two top teams. Sydney wants to keep their #1 ranking going into the playoffs as well as keeping the perfect season going. Waikiki is looking at this as a warm-up for when they meet in the playoffs. Sydney certainly doesn’t want to have any weakness exposed at this point in their season as no one has been able to find a place to attack yet. I think because of that, this game is more important for Sydney than for Waikiki. Waikiki is playing for positioning #3 or #4, so this game is important to them as well. The Sea Wasps have been pretty unstoppable and will prevail in this game also, but it will be close as the Wrecks make a valiant effort. Sydney by 6, 30-24.
#2 Perth Pirates (13-1) vs #3 Apia Evil (12-2)
Another great battle awaits as Perth takes on Apia. The Pirates are coming off of their plundering of Devonport and are looking to sail over the Evil as well. Apia is on a roll after nearly defeating Sydney four weeks ago. Since then they have only given up 6 points total in 3 games as they took down An Album Cover, Waikiki and Redcliffe (with a vengeance). So this game has all the indications of being a classic battle until the last click of the clock. Does this game matter that much? Yes. Obviously both teams are in the playoffs, but they are still deciding who will be seated where. And then of course is the fact that one team will have the confidence going into the playoffs that they can take out the other team. Will the Pirates raid Apia? Or will Apia do the Evil Dance in Perth? This is really tough to call. I give the slight edge to Perth, but Apia is in a groove and wouldn’t surprise me with a win. In a close one, Perth by 3, 24-21.
#5 Devonport Devils (10-4) vs #11 Port Moresby Scallywags (6-8)
This game shows the parity in Oceania AA #4 Zeta this season – just judging by the scouting report, there isn’t that much of a difference between #5 and #11. Based on performance so far this season, Devonport should win this game, but it’s not a stretch to say that Port Moresby could pull an upset with a break or two. After all, they only lost to Rochester by 3 and they beat Samoa, so they can beat a quality team. And they are fighting for their lives. Can the Devils get back on track after being bludgeoned by Perth? Devonport by 10, 31-21.
#6 Rochester Iroquois (9-5) vs #8 Samoa Savages (8-6)
This will be a good game to watch. Both teams are good and have done well this season. Rochester has only lost to the top 4 teams and then dropped one to the resurgent STALEYS. Samoa has lost to 4 of the top 5 teams and lost to DECATUR as well, but also dropped one to the pesky Port Moresby. I think the edge goes to the Iroquois in this game, but not by much. It’s close enough that a key game planning move by either team might make the difference. Rochester by 3, 30-27.
#7 DECATUR STALEYS (8-6) vs #9 Komodo Dragons (6-8)
Yet another great match-up here in week 15. I have to get my Tivo set to catch all these games. In this one, we have DECATUR who has made some changes and is now rolling like a well oiled machine looking to clinch their spot in the playoffs, versus Komodo who has been up and down all season but who must win this game to have a shot at making the playoffs. Komodo has lost 3 games this season by 4 points or less or the picture would look very different for them. A few weeks ago, I would have given them the nod against the floundering STALEYS, but that is not who they will be facing this week. It’s the same team, but it’s not the same team. I picked DECATUR #2 in the pre-season for a reason. It has taken a while for them to get going, but I think they are going to be very tough from here on out. DECATUR by 17, 31-14.
#10 Fiji Rage (6-8) vs #15 Tasmania Dragons (1-13)
Fiji is still on the bubble and gets an easy one here to keep their playoff hopes barely alive. Once they take care of business against the Dragons, they will have just one game left against Rochester that they will have to win just to get into the tie breaker. Let the Rage flow out against Tasmania as Fiji wins by 40, 60-20.
#12 An Album Cover (5-9) vs #16 Redcliffe Sharks (0-16)
The last chance for AAC to get a win to wrap up this season; obviously they will. Not much to say here, Redcliffe loses again in another poorly fought game. The only question is the score. An Album Cover by 90, 93-3.
#13 Intergalactic Sub-Mariners (2-12) vs #14 Alaska Wild (2-12)
Tied at 2-12, will the real #13 team please stand up? Obviously they have both beat the two gutter teams, but who will win between them? The Sub-Mariners are bankrupt (not a good sign on only day 28). The Wild haven’t pulled any upsets this season, but they have improved and appear to be making more progress than Intergalactic. I think ISM will win today, but by next season, I think that the Wild will take them. But we probably don’t care about that because I don’t think either team will be in AA #4 Zeta next season. For today, I have to go with Intergalactic by 7, 35-28.
Clinched a home field spot:
Sydney, Perth, Waikiki
Clinched a playoff spot:
Apia, Devonport, Rochester
The just leaves two spots open. Two teams (DECATUR and Samoa) have a two game lead over the rest of the pack, so if they can win at least one of their last 2 games, then they are in. That looks like a given for DECATUR as they have Intergalactic for one game (their other game is Komodo). However, Samoa has two playoff teams to play (Rochester and Sydney), so they have to pull an upset to guarantee themselves a spot. If they lose both games, then that leaves the door open for Komodo, Fiji and Port Moresby to try to win both of their remaining games to tie Samoa at 8-8. For those 3 their tough games left are: Komodo would have to beat DECATUR, Fiji would have to beat Rochester, and Port Moresby would have to beat Devonport and Apia. Samoa beat both Komodo and Fiji, so they would win the tie breaker if it is just two teams tied. Samoa lost to Port Moresby, but Port Moresby also has the most difficult road to get to 8-8. In all likelihood, DECATUR will end up #7 and Samoa will end up #8.
So what’s going to happen in week #15… For one thing, there are some great match-ups: 1 vs 4, and 2 vs 3. Sounds like playoff time already! Let’s see what this early look will tell us.
#1 Sydney Sea Wasps (14-0) vs #4 Waikiki Wrecks (12-2)
This is a great late season clash of two top teams. Sydney wants to keep their #1 ranking going into the playoffs as well as keeping the perfect season going. Waikiki is looking at this as a warm-up for when they meet in the playoffs. Sydney certainly doesn’t want to have any weakness exposed at this point in their season as no one has been able to find a place to attack yet. I think because of that, this game is more important for Sydney than for Waikiki. Waikiki is playing for positioning #3 or #4, so this game is important to them as well. The Sea Wasps have been pretty unstoppable and will prevail in this game also, but it will be close as the Wrecks make a valiant effort. Sydney by 6, 30-24.
#2 Perth Pirates (13-1) vs #3 Apia Evil (12-2)
Another great battle awaits as Perth takes on Apia. The Pirates are coming off of their plundering of Devonport and are looking to sail over the Evil as well. Apia is on a roll after nearly defeating Sydney four weeks ago. Since then they have only given up 6 points total in 3 games as they took down An Album Cover, Waikiki and Redcliffe (with a vengeance). So this game has all the indications of being a classic battle until the last click of the clock. Does this game matter that much? Yes. Obviously both teams are in the playoffs, but they are still deciding who will be seated where. And then of course is the fact that one team will have the confidence going into the playoffs that they can take out the other team. Will the Pirates raid Apia? Or will Apia do the Evil Dance in Perth? This is really tough to call. I give the slight edge to Perth, but Apia is in a groove and wouldn’t surprise me with a win. In a close one, Perth by 3, 24-21.
#5 Devonport Devils (10-4) vs #11 Port Moresby Scallywags (6-8)
This game shows the parity in Oceania AA #4 Zeta this season – just judging by the scouting report, there isn’t that much of a difference between #5 and #11. Based on performance so far this season, Devonport should win this game, but it’s not a stretch to say that Port Moresby could pull an upset with a break or two. After all, they only lost to Rochester by 3 and they beat Samoa, so they can beat a quality team. And they are fighting for their lives. Can the Devils get back on track after being bludgeoned by Perth? Devonport by 10, 31-21.
#6 Rochester Iroquois (9-5) vs #8 Samoa Savages (8-6)
This will be a good game to watch. Both teams are good and have done well this season. Rochester has only lost to the top 4 teams and then dropped one to the resurgent STALEYS. Samoa has lost to 4 of the top 5 teams and lost to DECATUR as well, but also dropped one to the pesky Port Moresby. I think the edge goes to the Iroquois in this game, but not by much. It’s close enough that a key game planning move by either team might make the difference. Rochester by 3, 30-27.
#7 DECATUR STALEYS (8-6) vs #9 Komodo Dragons (6-8)
Yet another great match-up here in week 15. I have to get my Tivo set to catch all these games. In this one, we have DECATUR who has made some changes and is now rolling like a well oiled machine looking to clinch their spot in the playoffs, versus Komodo who has been up and down all season but who must win this game to have a shot at making the playoffs. Komodo has lost 3 games this season by 4 points or less or the picture would look very different for them. A few weeks ago, I would have given them the nod against the floundering STALEYS, but that is not who they will be facing this week. It’s the same team, but it’s not the same team. I picked DECATUR #2 in the pre-season for a reason. It has taken a while for them to get going, but I think they are going to be very tough from here on out. DECATUR by 17, 31-14.
#10 Fiji Rage (6-8) vs #15 Tasmania Dragons (1-13)
Fiji is still on the bubble and gets an easy one here to keep their playoff hopes barely alive. Once they take care of business against the Dragons, they will have just one game left against Rochester that they will have to win just to get into the tie breaker. Let the Rage flow out against Tasmania as Fiji wins by 40, 60-20.
#12 An Album Cover (5-9) vs #16 Redcliffe Sharks (0-16)
The last chance for AAC to get a win to wrap up this season; obviously they will. Not much to say here, Redcliffe loses again in another poorly fought game. The only question is the score. An Album Cover by 90, 93-3.
#13 Intergalactic Sub-Mariners (2-12) vs #14 Alaska Wild (2-12)
Tied at 2-12, will the real #13 team please stand up? Obviously they have both beat the two gutter teams, but who will win between them? The Sub-Mariners are bankrupt (not a good sign on only day 28). The Wild haven’t pulled any upsets this season, but they have improved and appear to be making more progress than Intergalactic. I think ISM will win today, but by next season, I think that the Wild will take them. But we probably don’t care about that because I don’t think either team will be in AA #4 Zeta next season. For today, I have to go with Intergalactic by 7, 35-28.
