Two more rounds gone, only 4 games remaining...some clarity is forming...here's the week 12 update:
Here is the methodology:
I used the current Power Rankings (see separate post), and assume that any game against a team more than 7 rankings above or below you is a loss or win as appropriate. At this point, the rankings are pretty stable, and if you're more than 7 below someone, you're not likely to pull the upset. I'll be updating that as need be the rest of the way.
Then, we take the assumed wins and losses, and see where teams stand. Undetermined games are assumed to be 50/50. It's not really that even in some cases, but it makes the math easier. That gives us a projected final standings.
So, as of right now, this is what we have, in a wacky order:
-- NO CHANCE OF GETTING ANYWHERE
- Gaul Visigoths (0-12, 2 assumed losses, projected final record 1-15)
- Paris Superbes (1-11, 2 assumed losses, projected final record 2-14)
- Buffalo Buffalos (0-12, 1 assumed loss, pfr 1.5-14.5)
- Gothenburg Geats (2-10, 1 assumed loss, pfr 3.5-12.5)
- Koln Prowlers (3-9, 1 assumed loss, 1 assumed win, pfr 5-11)
Now to the other end of the table...
-- CLINCHED A BERTH, FIGHTING FOR #1
- Paris Vikings (12-0, 1 assumed win, pfr 14.5-1.5)
- Ukraine Valkyries (11-1, 2 assumed wins, pfr 14-2)
- London Apes (11-1, 1 assumed win, pfr 13.5-2.5)
Paris holds the inside track at the moment, but each team has a game remaining against each the other two in the triad. Stay tuned for this.
-- CLINCHED, fighting for Round 1 Home Field
- Cancun Sharks (10-2, 2 assumed wins, pfr 13-3)
- South Yorkshire Scorpions (10-2, 1 assumed win, pfr 12.5-3.5)
Cancun's win in week 10 gives them the advantage, but there's a lot of football to pla..well...simulate.
Six Teams remain, fighting for three spots:
-- CONTROLLING THEIR OWN DESTINY
- Copenhagen Vikings (7-5, 2 assumed wins, pfr 10-6)
If they win the games they're supposed to, they're in. Plain and simple. Even if they lose one of those, they have cushion. It's not locked up yet, but they can feel good about their chances.
- Shadow Rattlers (8-4, 0 assumed wins, 1 assumed losses, pfr 9.5-6.5)
Their outlook looks brighter primarily because the teams left on their schedule look weaker now than they did 2 games ago, and the win over Dinwiddie didn't hurt either. there aren't any more gimmes on the schedule, but they control the tiebreaker even if they end up at 8-8. One more win gets them in.
-- IN IF THE SEASON ENDED TODAY, BUT THE ROAD AHEAD LOOKS ROUGH
- Lubeck Cougars (7-5, 0 assumed wins, 1 assumed loss, pfr 8.5-7.5)
They've benefited from a soft early schedule, but they have some tough games coming. Dinwiddie controls the head to head tiebreaker, so 8-8 might not be enough for them to make it in.
-- HOPING FOR SOME HELP
- Dinwiddie Dustdevils (4-8, 2 assumed wins, 0 assumed losses, pfr 7-9)
A brutal first 3/4 of the season has left them with 4 consecutive must-win games, the last 2 of which are against the bottom feeders to finish the season...winning out gets them to 8-8, which may or may not make it, depending on what everyone else does.
- Henry Patriots (5-7, 0 assumed wins, 1 assumed loss, pfr 6.5-9.5)
All but one of their games down the stretch are competitive, but Montana owns the tiebreaker over them...any hiccup would be fatal from here on out.
- MONTANA WOLVERINES (5-7, 2 assumed losses, pfr 6-10
Ahead of Dinwiddie in the race right now, but games agaisnt the top of the league to come mean a hard road to travel.
GAMES TO WATCH IN ROUND 11
- Dinwiddie Dustdevils vs. Henry Patriots. Isn't week 13 a little early for an elimination game? Regardless, that's what it comes down to for these two teams. The loser can pack up the bags for next season, while the winner still harbors hope.
- Montana Wolverines vs. Gothenburg Geats. The geats have nothing left to play for, but they could end Montana's hopes with an upset.
- Paris Vikings vs South Yorkshire Scorpions. Can South Yorkshire defeat the Juggernaut?
- Cancun Sharks vs. Shadow Rattlers. Cancun needs to stop the bleeding to keep a home playoff game. Shadow Rattlers can't really afford a loss and stay comfortably in the playoff catbird seat.
Here is the methodology:
I used the current Power Rankings (see separate post), and assume that any game against a team more than 7 rankings above or below you is a loss or win as appropriate. At this point, the rankings are pretty stable, and if you're more than 7 below someone, you're not likely to pull the upset. I'll be updating that as need be the rest of the way.
Then, we take the assumed wins and losses, and see where teams stand. Undetermined games are assumed to be 50/50. It's not really that even in some cases, but it makes the math easier. That gives us a projected final standings.
So, as of right now, this is what we have, in a wacky order:
-- NO CHANCE OF GETTING ANYWHERE
- Gaul Visigoths (0-12, 2 assumed losses, projected final record 1-15)
- Paris Superbes (1-11, 2 assumed losses, projected final record 2-14)
- Buffalo Buffalos (0-12, 1 assumed loss, pfr 1.5-14.5)
- Gothenburg Geats (2-10, 1 assumed loss, pfr 3.5-12.5)
- Koln Prowlers (3-9, 1 assumed loss, 1 assumed win, pfr 5-11)
Now to the other end of the table...
-- CLINCHED A BERTH, FIGHTING FOR #1
- Paris Vikings (12-0, 1 assumed win, pfr 14.5-1.5)
- Ukraine Valkyries (11-1, 2 assumed wins, pfr 14-2)
- London Apes (11-1, 1 assumed win, pfr 13.5-2.5)
Paris holds the inside track at the moment, but each team has a game remaining against each the other two in the triad. Stay tuned for this.
-- CLINCHED, fighting for Round 1 Home Field
- Cancun Sharks (10-2, 2 assumed wins, pfr 13-3)
- South Yorkshire Scorpions (10-2, 1 assumed win, pfr 12.5-3.5)
Cancun's win in week 10 gives them the advantage, but there's a lot of football to pla..well...simulate.
Six Teams remain, fighting for three spots:
-- CONTROLLING THEIR OWN DESTINY
- Copenhagen Vikings (7-5, 2 assumed wins, pfr 10-6)
If they win the games they're supposed to, they're in. Plain and simple. Even if they lose one of those, they have cushion. It's not locked up yet, but they can feel good about their chances.
- Shadow Rattlers (8-4, 0 assumed wins, 1 assumed losses, pfr 9.5-6.5)
Their outlook looks brighter primarily because the teams left on their schedule look weaker now than they did 2 games ago, and the win over Dinwiddie didn't hurt either. there aren't any more gimmes on the schedule, but they control the tiebreaker even if they end up at 8-8. One more win gets them in.
-- IN IF THE SEASON ENDED TODAY, BUT THE ROAD AHEAD LOOKS ROUGH
- Lubeck Cougars (7-5, 0 assumed wins, 1 assumed loss, pfr 8.5-7.5)
They've benefited from a soft early schedule, but they have some tough games coming. Dinwiddie controls the head to head tiebreaker, so 8-8 might not be enough for them to make it in.
-- HOPING FOR SOME HELP
- Dinwiddie Dustdevils (4-8, 2 assumed wins, 0 assumed losses, pfr 7-9)
A brutal first 3/4 of the season has left them with 4 consecutive must-win games, the last 2 of which are against the bottom feeders to finish the season...winning out gets them to 8-8, which may or may not make it, depending on what everyone else does.
- Henry Patriots (5-7, 0 assumed wins, 1 assumed loss, pfr 6.5-9.5)
All but one of their games down the stretch are competitive, but Montana owns the tiebreaker over them...any hiccup would be fatal from here on out.
- MONTANA WOLVERINES (5-7, 2 assumed losses, pfr 6-10
Ahead of Dinwiddie in the race right now, but games agaisnt the top of the league to come mean a hard road to travel.
GAMES TO WATCH IN ROUND 11
- Dinwiddie Dustdevils vs. Henry Patriots. Isn't week 13 a little early for an elimination game? Regardless, that's what it comes down to for these two teams. The loser can pack up the bags for next season, while the winner still harbors hope.
- Montana Wolverines vs. Gothenburg Geats. The geats have nothing left to play for, but they could end Montana's hopes with an upset.
- Paris Vikings vs South Yorkshire Scorpions. Can South Yorkshire defeat the Juggernaut?
- Cancun Sharks vs. Shadow Rattlers. Cancun needs to stop the bleeding to keep a home playoff game. Shadow Rattlers can't really afford a loss and stay comfortably in the playoff catbird seat.
