Week 11: Time to start focusing on who will make the playoffs as the teams on the bubble must come up with big wins down the stretch.
#1 Sydney Sea Wasps (10-0) vs #3 Apia Evil (9-1)
This is one of the last chances for a team to knock Sydney out of a perfect regular season. The Sea Wasps have rolled all season, always winning by at least 20 against conference opponents. They are definitely looking to be the #1 seed going into the playoffs. Apia was perfect until last week and would like nothing better than to avenge that loss by taking down the only other unbeaten team. I think Apia will work hard to unleash their Evil upon Sydney, but I believe that the Sea Wasps will go “nom nom nom nom nom” all the way home. Sydney remains unbeaten, although the Evil put up a valiant try and come closer than anyone so far. Sydney by 13, 30-17.
#2 Perth Pirates (9-1) vs #11 Fiji Rage (4-6)
Ok, Perth is coasting into the playoffs at this point, but they would like to keep that #2 ranking. The Rage have to fight for a win each week now. They are only 1 game behind #8 An Album Cover and 2 behind #7 Samoa. They also have match-ups remaining against the two teams they are tied with. However, they have to really take a game against either Perth or Rochester to have a real shot at the playoffs, which brings us to today’s match-up against Perth. Fiji has played several good teams really tough, but then lost games they needed to win to be a playoff team. But the Pirates are a very steady team and won’t be easily caught off guard. Perth will take care of business this week by 17, 33-16.
#4 Waikiki Wrecks (9-1) vs #14 Intergalactic Sub-Mariners (1-9)
Waikiki has been riding their winning wave well this season with only one loss to the Pirates; however, they will face Sydney, Apia and Devonport in 3 of the last 6 weeks. Intergalactic hasn’t faced an opponent that they liked all season, with the exception of Tasmania. The Sub-Mariners will get to face Redcliffe next week to get their second win, but before that they will be embarrassed by the Wrecks. Waikiki has definitely put up points this season, but not as consistently as Sydney and Perth. I expect the Wrecks to win going away by 42, 55-13.
#5 Devonport Devils (8-2) vs #8 An Album Cover (5-5)
Devonport is riding high after their upset of Apia and want to continue their winning streak against An Album Cover. An Album Cover is currently in 8th place, but a loss this week will put them right in the mix with several teams for that last playoff spot. In fact, looking at the last 6 games, AAC faces all top 5 teams in Devonport, Apia, Sydney, Waikiki, Perth and then gets a gimme in Redcliffe. For AAC to have any shot at the playoffs, they will have to take out at least 2 of the top 5 just to end up 8-8. So I would think this is a must win for AAC since the Devils are #5. But just having a need to win is not the same as being able to win. Devonport will take this one handily by 20, 40-20.
#6 Rochester Iroquois (7-3) vs #13 Alaska Wild (2-8)
Rochester is a definite playoff team and with a very favorable schedule remaining (only 1 top 5 team and only 2 teams over 500), they are trying to work into the top 4. The Wild are a lost cause for the season, but have managed 2 victories and will at least have a shot at a 3rd later against ISM. As for this game, Rochester wins going away by 39, 56-17.
#7 Samoa Savages (6-4) vs #10 Port Moresby Scallywags (4-6)
Samoa wants to take this game to solidify their playoff spot. Port Moresby has to take this game to have a chance at a playoff spot. Samoa has been strong all season and is a strong team. Port Moresby is just not quite up to the level needed for AA yet, but they are a decent team and if they can get a few breaks can still upset a good team. In the end, the Savages will beat up the Scallywags. Samoa looks like they will end the regular season around 10-6, while Port Moresby looks like they will be around 6-10. Samoa by 13, 30-17.
#9 DECATUR STALEYS (4-6) vs #15 Tasmania Dragons (1-9)
DECATUR has been a disappointment to me this season as I expected them to be one of the top 4 teams. Sitting at #9, they technically have a shot at the playoffs, and this week they have an obvious win. I think at best they will end up 8-8, but probably 7-9 and just miss the playoffs. Tasmania doesn’t really deserve much write-up so I will leave them with a song, “na na na na, na na na na, hey hey, good-bye.” DECATUR seems to score big against weak teams, so DECATUR by 77, 87-10.
#12 Komodo Dragons (3-7) vs #16 Redcliffe Sharks (0-10)
Komodo has played most of the tough teams and have made good showings in most. They have 5 possible wins in their last 6 games, not counting Perth as a possible win. If they win all 5, they’ll end up 8-8. Is that good enough to make it to the playoffs? I don’t know. But what I do know is they will win this game and win it big. Let’s see how well the Dragons can end the regular season starting with a victory over Redcliffe by 67, 70-3.
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Playoff Picture:
Projected losses are bold.
The Rochester-Samoa game is pretty even, but I gave Samoa the slight edge.
In for sure -
Sydney: Currently 10-0; 3 hard games left: Apia, Rochester, Waikiki; Best possible 16-0, Worst probable 13-3, Likely 16-0
Perth: Currently 9-1; 2 hard games left: Devonport, Apia; Best possible 15-1, Worst probable 13-3, Likely 15-1
Apia: Currently 9-1; 3 hard games left: Sydney, Waikiki, Perth; Best possible 15-1, Worst probable 12-4, Likely 13-3
Waikiki: Currently 9-1; 3 hard games left: Devonport, Apia, Sydney – Waikiki needs to beat Devonport or Apia for home playoff game; Best possible 15-1, Worst probable 12-4, Likely 12-4
Devonport: Currently 8-2; 2 hard games left: Waikiki, Perth; Best Possible 14-2, Worst probable 12-4, Likely 13-3
Rochester: Currently 7-3; 2 hard games left: Sydney, Samoa; Best possible 13-3, Worst probable 11-5, Likely 11-5
Samoa: Currently 6-4; 2 hard games left: Sydney, Rochester; Best possible 12-4, Worst probable 10-6, Likely 11-5
An Album Cover: Currently 5-5; 5 hard games left: Devonport, Apia, Sydney, Waikiki, Perth – could win one, but not likely; Best possible 11-5, Worst probable 6-10, Likely 6-10
DECATUR: Currently 4-6; 2 hard games left: Rochester, Samoa, 2 tough games: Fiji, Komodo; Best possible 10-6, Worst probable 6-10, Likely 8-8
Port Moresby: Currently 4-6; 3 hard games left: Samoa, Devonport, Apia, 2 tough games: Fiji, Komodo; Best possible 10-6, Worst probable 5-11, Likely 6-10
Fiji: Currently 4-6; 2 hard games left: Perth, Rochester, 2 tough games: Port Moresby, DECATUR; Best possible 10-6, Worst probable 6-10, Likely 6-10
Komodo: Currently 3-7; 1 hard game: Perth, 2 tough games: Port Moresby, DECATUR; Best possible 9-7, Worst probable 6-10, Likely 7-9
The others have no shot at making the playoffs. Given the “Likely” projections, we would end the regular season in this order:
..1 Sydney (16-0)
..2 Perth (15-1)
..3 Devonport (13-3)
..4 Apia (13-3)
..5 Waikiki (12-4)
..6 Samoa (11-5)
..7 Rochester (11-5)
..8 DECATUR (8-8)
..9 Komodo (7-9)
An Album Cover (6-10)
Port Moresby (6-10)
Fiji (6-10)
Intergalactic (3-13)
Alaska (2-14)
Tasmania (1-15)
Redcliffe (0-16)
#1 Sydney Sea Wasps (10-0) vs #3 Apia Evil (9-1)
This is one of the last chances for a team to knock Sydney out of a perfect regular season. The Sea Wasps have rolled all season, always winning by at least 20 against conference opponents. They are definitely looking to be the #1 seed going into the playoffs. Apia was perfect until last week and would like nothing better than to avenge that loss by taking down the only other unbeaten team. I think Apia will work hard to unleash their Evil upon Sydney, but I believe that the Sea Wasps will go “nom nom nom nom nom” all the way home. Sydney remains unbeaten, although the Evil put up a valiant try and come closer than anyone so far. Sydney by 13, 30-17.
#2 Perth Pirates (9-1) vs #11 Fiji Rage (4-6)
Ok, Perth is coasting into the playoffs at this point, but they would like to keep that #2 ranking. The Rage have to fight for a win each week now. They are only 1 game behind #8 An Album Cover and 2 behind #7 Samoa. They also have match-ups remaining against the two teams they are tied with. However, they have to really take a game against either Perth or Rochester to have a real shot at the playoffs, which brings us to today’s match-up against Perth. Fiji has played several good teams really tough, but then lost games they needed to win to be a playoff team. But the Pirates are a very steady team and won’t be easily caught off guard. Perth will take care of business this week by 17, 33-16.
#4 Waikiki Wrecks (9-1) vs #14 Intergalactic Sub-Mariners (1-9)
Waikiki has been riding their winning wave well this season with only one loss to the Pirates; however, they will face Sydney, Apia and Devonport in 3 of the last 6 weeks. Intergalactic hasn’t faced an opponent that they liked all season, with the exception of Tasmania. The Sub-Mariners will get to face Redcliffe next week to get their second win, but before that they will be embarrassed by the Wrecks. Waikiki has definitely put up points this season, but not as consistently as Sydney and Perth. I expect the Wrecks to win going away by 42, 55-13.
#5 Devonport Devils (8-2) vs #8 An Album Cover (5-5)
Devonport is riding high after their upset of Apia and want to continue their winning streak against An Album Cover. An Album Cover is currently in 8th place, but a loss this week will put them right in the mix with several teams for that last playoff spot. In fact, looking at the last 6 games, AAC faces all top 5 teams in Devonport, Apia, Sydney, Waikiki, Perth and then gets a gimme in Redcliffe. For AAC to have any shot at the playoffs, they will have to take out at least 2 of the top 5 just to end up 8-8. So I would think this is a must win for AAC since the Devils are #5. But just having a need to win is not the same as being able to win. Devonport will take this one handily by 20, 40-20.
#6 Rochester Iroquois (7-3) vs #13 Alaska Wild (2-8)
Rochester is a definite playoff team and with a very favorable schedule remaining (only 1 top 5 team and only 2 teams over 500), they are trying to work into the top 4. The Wild are a lost cause for the season, but have managed 2 victories and will at least have a shot at a 3rd later against ISM. As for this game, Rochester wins going away by 39, 56-17.
#7 Samoa Savages (6-4) vs #10 Port Moresby Scallywags (4-6)
Samoa wants to take this game to solidify their playoff spot. Port Moresby has to take this game to have a chance at a playoff spot. Samoa has been strong all season and is a strong team. Port Moresby is just not quite up to the level needed for AA yet, but they are a decent team and if they can get a few breaks can still upset a good team. In the end, the Savages will beat up the Scallywags. Samoa looks like they will end the regular season around 10-6, while Port Moresby looks like they will be around 6-10. Samoa by 13, 30-17.
#9 DECATUR STALEYS (4-6) vs #15 Tasmania Dragons (1-9)
DECATUR has been a disappointment to me this season as I expected them to be one of the top 4 teams. Sitting at #9, they technically have a shot at the playoffs, and this week they have an obvious win. I think at best they will end up 8-8, but probably 7-9 and just miss the playoffs. Tasmania doesn’t really deserve much write-up so I will leave them with a song, “na na na na, na na na na, hey hey, good-bye.” DECATUR seems to score big against weak teams, so DECATUR by 77, 87-10.
#12 Komodo Dragons (3-7) vs #16 Redcliffe Sharks (0-10)
Komodo has played most of the tough teams and have made good showings in most. They have 5 possible wins in their last 6 games, not counting Perth as a possible win. If they win all 5, they’ll end up 8-8. Is that good enough to make it to the playoffs? I don’t know. But what I do know is they will win this game and win it big. Let’s see how well the Dragons can end the regular season starting with a victory over Redcliffe by 67, 70-3.
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Playoff Picture:
Projected losses are bold.
The Rochester-Samoa game is pretty even, but I gave Samoa the slight edge.
In for sure -
Sydney: Currently 10-0; 3 hard games left: Apia, Rochester, Waikiki; Best possible 16-0, Worst probable 13-3, Likely 16-0
Perth: Currently 9-1; 2 hard games left: Devonport, Apia; Best possible 15-1, Worst probable 13-3, Likely 15-1
Apia: Currently 9-1; 3 hard games left: Sydney, Waikiki, Perth; Best possible 15-1, Worst probable 12-4, Likely 13-3
Waikiki: Currently 9-1; 3 hard games left: Devonport, Apia, Sydney – Waikiki needs to beat Devonport or Apia for home playoff game; Best possible 15-1, Worst probable 12-4, Likely 12-4
Devonport: Currently 8-2; 2 hard games left: Waikiki, Perth; Best Possible 14-2, Worst probable 12-4, Likely 13-3
Rochester: Currently 7-3; 2 hard games left: Sydney, Samoa; Best possible 13-3, Worst probable 11-5, Likely 11-5
Samoa: Currently 6-4; 2 hard games left: Sydney, Rochester; Best possible 12-4, Worst probable 10-6, Likely 11-5
An Album Cover: Currently 5-5; 5 hard games left: Devonport, Apia, Sydney, Waikiki, Perth – could win one, but not likely; Best possible 11-5, Worst probable 6-10, Likely 6-10
DECATUR: Currently 4-6; 2 hard games left: Rochester, Samoa, 2 tough games: Fiji, Komodo; Best possible 10-6, Worst probable 6-10, Likely 8-8
Port Moresby: Currently 4-6; 3 hard games left: Samoa, Devonport, Apia, 2 tough games: Fiji, Komodo; Best possible 10-6, Worst probable 5-11, Likely 6-10
Fiji: Currently 4-6; 2 hard games left: Perth, Rochester, 2 tough games: Port Moresby, DECATUR; Best possible 10-6, Worst probable 6-10, Likely 6-10
Komodo: Currently 3-7; 1 hard game: Perth, 2 tough games: Port Moresby, DECATUR; Best possible 9-7, Worst probable 6-10, Likely 7-9
The others have no shot at making the playoffs. Given the “Likely” projections, we would end the regular season in this order:
..1 Sydney (16-0)
..2 Perth (15-1)
..3 Devonport (13-3)
..4 Apia (13-3)
..5 Waikiki (12-4)
..6 Samoa (11-5)
..7 Rochester (11-5)
..8 DECATUR (8-8)
..9 Komodo (7-9)
An Album Cover (6-10)
Port Moresby (6-10)
Fiji (6-10)
Intergalactic (3-13)
Alaska (2-14)
Tasmania (1-15)
Redcliffe (0-16)
