Warrior General Games

Now we're starting to get some good games

Zeta projections

1 The Cape Town Cubicles 16 0
2 Monty Pythons 15 1
3 The D-League Home For Underprivileged Children 14 2
4 Rome Raiders 13 3
5 Sevastopol Wolverines 12 4
6 Constantinople Romans 11 5
7 C-Town Hoodlums 9 7
8 Transylvania Terror 8 8
9 The Wheatfield 8 8
10 Terlingua Javelinas 7 9
11 Draguignan Dragons 83 5 11
12 Grodno Titans 4 12
13 Subotica Scorpions 4 12
14 Columbus Crush 2 14
15 Chernobyl Radionuclides 1 15
16 Elancourt Templiers 0 16

No big changes this week. The only significant move was Wheatfield dropping out of the top 8 after getting blown out by the Pythons.

Zeta RPI

Monty Pythons .653
The D-League Home For Underprivileged Children .606
The Cape Town Cubicles .591
Sevastopol Wolverines .573
Constantinople Romans .556
Rome Raiders .543
C-Town Hoodlums .526
Terlingua Javelinas .516
The Wheatfield .506
Transylvania Terror .499
Draguignan Dragons 83 .443
Subotica Scorpions .434
Grodno Titans .421
Elancourt Templiers .418
Chernobyl Radionuclides .416
Columbus Crush .393

Pythons continue to lead the pack, but the number should drop back down in the coming weeks with a few stat padding games. Before they get to easy street though, they need to get through D-League. The predictor is giving the Pythons a 27-17 win, and I'll take the 10 points with the way they've been steamrolling.

Wolverines are trying to claw into the top tier group, and their convincing win over the Romans gave them a huge boost (and makes me 3-1). Conversely, the Romans loss could get more painful when they face the Cubes (-18). As if those 2 games weren't enough action, the Raiders play C-Town (+9), who badly need this one because their schedule is only going to get tougher.

Alpha projections

1 Lisbon Crows 15 1
2 NISSA Dauphins 14 2
3 Chernobyl Meltdowns 14 2
4 Kharkiv Thrashers 13 3
5 Woburn Tanners 11 5
6 Saratov Catrades 10 6
7 Transylvania Impalers 9 7
8 Black Sea Pirates 9 7
9 Tallaght Outlaws 9 7
10 BERLIN RAIDERS 7 9
11 Sacramento Storm 5 11
12 Tskhinvali Rebellion 5 11
13 Fehérvár Enthroners 3 13
14 Bohemian Grove Molechs 2 14
15 Jax Beach B.O.H.I.C.A 1 15
16 International Players 0 16

Alpha RPI

NISSA Dauphins .637
Kharkiv Thrashers .616
Chernobyl Meltdowns .612
Black Sea Pirates .562
Lisbon Crows .534
BERLIN RAIDERS .523
Woburn Tanners .519
Transylvania Impalers .508
Tallaght Outlaws .490
Tskhinvali Rebellion .473
Saratov Catrades .468
Sacramento Storm .426
Jax Beach B.O.H.I.C.A .418
Fehérvár Enthroners .388
Bohemian Grove Molechs .373
International Players .358

A big bounce back win by the Thrashers, but it doesn't convince me they belong in the same class as NISSA, and with games against NISSA and Chernobyl left on their schedule, they are the most likely 9-1 team to fall. NISSA continues to run the table, and Lisbon starts off its "second" season with an impressive win over the Raiders, but there's no time to breathe with the Pirates (+38) coming up. 38 points? I'll take the Pirates to make it closer.

No way Crows are 38 point favs in this game.............no way.

What the hell games is your Footballtron 9000XL saying the Catrades are winning because we're banking on going 7-9 or worse at this point tbqh.

Damn thrashers get no cred. If I'm not mistaken between regular season and scrimmages, we have played one of the harder schedules of everyone.

Hey, I already had a disclaimer that the numbers are purely from the spreadsheet But to try to answer some of your questions..

The Lisbon conspiracy continues.. as long as Elancourt doesn't score, the projections will always be a little off (read previous threads for full details). Now, you might say, "Hey just put those 7 points up that Elancourt scored into Lisbon's history!" If I do, the projected score for their next game is.. Pirates 208, Lisbon 50. So if you HAD to pick one, would you guess Lisbon by 38 or Pirates by 158? So hopefully that answers the first 2 posts lol

The Thrashers have certainly played a tough schedule so far, proven by their RPI, second only to NISSA. But the reason you're projected to lose later on is that the only "big" win you've had was against Lisbon, who until now, have had one of the EASIEST schedules, so you don't really get credit for that. As Lisbon continues to beat quality teams, the Thrashers win over them will be worth more (ahhh good old BCS). You've also yet to play NISSA or Chernobyl, almost lost to the Tanners and Impalers (what the spreadsheet would consider 2nd tier teams), and got beat by the Pirates. That, I believe, did the most harm. Top teams are expected to beat each other, but once you get beaten by someone outside that circle, the ratings will kill you. If you consider the 9-1 teams, all of them have only lost to each other, with NISSA's loss to the top rated team in zeta. The Thrashers are the only one to lose to a team outside that "circle." And for obvious reasons, scrims don't matter

As for the Catrades, we're still using the older Footballtron 8000 model, so expect the numbers to be off. Your higher projections are most likely because you've only had blowout wins (granted, against really crap teams), but no real blowout losses. Aside from the obvious games coming up, the projector has you beating the Impalers, Raiders, and the Pirates (in very close games). I don't really know the alpha teams, but looking purely at the numbers, I think you could pull off an 8-8 season.

i knew we should have joined the SEC, we'd be #1 in the polls

Are you able to run the numbers dropping the interconf game? I wonder what things look like if you do that.

As for the Pirates - Crows game, I'm certainly hoping we can hold them to less than 38 points... not to mention avoiding getting beat by that kind of spread.

If you guys lose by more then 38, I will eat crow!

It's actually not a long stretch to see it happening. In real football, 38 point spread would be considered a blowout - but in GLB, that's closer to the average point spread. Crows have a much higher level team than Pirates. Much. Yea, they have a couple very low level Players that bring down the Roster average and Team overall... but really, their Players are a season ahead of ours, if not a season and a half.

That said, we have some good Players who can put up good performances. I've got some ideas for our offense, which might be able to stir things up... so we'll have to see how it goes.

You guys have no real lvl difference compared to us, and we held them to low scoring small margin victory for us. Even if they have improved, I highly doubt there is that much of a difference.

Not to mention the crows are built around their defense, so their offense doenst need to score all that much.

Good luck to both teams, I will be interested to see the result, and will likely "watch" the game via replays.

Crows also just reached 100 in team chemistry. We started the season at about 87 or something I think. We've only played one game so far with 100's in team, offense and defense chemistry. Not that it matters a whole bunch but when you play even level teams, my experience has shown that the team with 100 or the team with the higher chemistry wins 9 outta 10 of those.

I don't the Crows as a season and half ahead of anyone. Level of players don't make much difference if the players aren't built right. I think what is good for us {Crows} is that the builds we've got match what we want to do on offense and defense. We like to run and stop the run. Watch our tapes; no surprise there. But its the players builds not their level that make us what we are.

I'm not terribly surprised that we got beat bad... and yes, Crows are easily a season ahead of Pirates. It's not hard to see that Crows average starter level is 4 levels higher, and while levels don't mean everything - if all players are built equally... then levels do matter. Either way, it's the nature of the game, and having the better team should lead to wins.

Hmm. Guess I am eating CROW!!!!!

Surprise, The Romans aren't dead yet.