Warrior General Games

So...5 games to go, it's time to start looking at which teams would have little x's, y's, z's, or e's next to their names in the sports pages....

Methodology:
- Assume a win against any CPU run team
- Assume a win against any team behind you by more than 3 games (so a 7-4 team assumes a victory against a 3-8 team, but a 4-7 team still has a shot).

Three teams have mathematically clinched playoff spots:

Helsinki
- 11-0 record
- 3 Assumed safe wins (Henry, Iberville, London A)
- Questionable Games: Shadow (15) Koln (16)
- Projected final record: 15-1
- Worst Case: 14-2
- Best case: 16-0

Reykjavik
- 10-1 Record
- 5 Assumed safe wins (Manchester, South Y, Montana, Dinwiddie, Henry)
- 0 Questionable games
- Projected Final Record 15-1
- Worst Case: 15-1
- Best Case: 15-1

Shadow
- 10-1 record
- 2 Assumed Safe Wins (Oslo, Buffalo)
- 3 Questionable Games: Koln (12), London M (13), Helsniki (15)
- Projected Final Record: 13.5-2.5
- Best case: 15-1
- Worst Case: 12-4

Three Teams are mathematically eliminated
Buffalo (0-11)
Montana (1-10)
Manchester (1-10)

4 teams are still mathematically alive, but need to run the board to make it, which looks unlikely

Henry Patriots - 7 losses and games against Helsinki and Reykjavik to go leaves them a bit short

London Apes - 5-6 would give them a shot, but CPU control dooms them to a 5-11 final record.

Ukraine Valkyries - 8 losses already. No "Assumed losses" on the schedule, but 8-8 probably won't cut it without some MAJOR help.

Iberville Oursons - 8 losses already and CPU control. Not mathematically out yet, but it's only a matter of time.

That leaves 6 teams fighting for 5 spots, here they are, ordered by decreasing probability of making it:

London Marlins:
Record: 8-3
Assumed Safe Wins: 2 (London A, Manchester)
Questionable Games: 3 Shadow(13), Koln(14), Oslo (16)
Assumed Losses: 0
Projected Final Record: 11.5-4.5
Best Case: 13-3
Worst Case: 10-6
Odds of making playoffs: 90%

Koln Prowlers
Record: 8-3
Assumed Safe Wins: 1 (Manchester)
Questionable Games: 4 Shadow (12), London M (14), Oslo (15), Helsinki (16)
Assumed Losses: 0
Projected Final Record: 11-5
Best Case: 13-3
Worst Case: 9-7
Odds of making playoffs: 80%

South Yorkshire Scorpions
Record: 6-5
Assumed Safe Wins: 2 (Manchester, Montana)
Questionable Games: 2 Ukraine 12, Dinwiddie 16
Assumed Losses: 1 (Reykjavik)
Projected Final Record: 9-7
Best Case: 10-6
Worst Case: 8-8
Odds of making playoffs: 60%

Oslo
Record: 6-5
Assumed Safe Wins: 2 (Iberville, London A)
Questionable Games: 2 (Koln 15, London M 16)
Assumed Losses: 1 (Shadow)
Projected Final Record: 9-7
Best Case: 10-6
Worst Case: 8-8
Odds of making playoffs: 60%

Copenhagen Vikings
Record: 5-6
Assumed Safe Wins: 3 (Montana Iberville, London A)
Questionable Games: 2 (Dinwiddie, Henry)
Assumed Losses: 0
Projected Final Record: 9-7
Best Case: 10-6
Worst Case: 8-8
Odds of making playoffs: 50%

Dinwiddie Dustdevils
Record: 6-5
Assumed Safe Wins: 1 (Buffalo)
Questionable Games: 3 (Copenhagen, Ukraine, South Y)
Assumed Losses: 1 (Reykjavik)
Projected Final Record: 8.5-7.5
Best Case: 10-6
Worst Case: 7-9
Odds of making playoffs: 40%

Games to watch that will impact who makes it and who misses out on the playoff money:

Week 12:
Shadow Rattlers vs. Koln Prowlers. A Koln win pretty much sews up a spot. Rattlers need a win to stay in the hunt for Home Field Advantage

South Yorkshire Scorpions vs. Ukraine Valkyries: Ukraine MUST win to stay mathematically alive. South Yorkshire needs a win to stay on top of the race for the 6th slot.

Week 13:
Copenhagen Vikings vs Dinwiddie Dustdevils: The winner probably cinches the #8 spot at worst. The loser is looking at a long offseason without some major help.

Week 14:
Henry Patriots vs. Copenhagen Vikings: Henry's probably out of it, but could make a lot of friends in Dinwiddie, Oslo, and South Yorkshire with an upset here.

Week 15:
Helsinki Coyotes vs. Shadow Rattlers: Major rumble at the top of the food chain. Playoff seeding is determined here.

Koln Prowlers vs. Oslo Lions: Koln might be coasting by now, Oslo will still be fighting, as any loss could be fatal.

Week 16:
London Marlins vs. Oslo Lions: London should be in Cruise Control. Oslo might be spending more time watching the scoreboard of...

South Yorkshire Scorpions vs. Dinwiddie Dustdevils. If the schedule plays to form, Yorkshire will be 9-6, Dinwiddie will be either 9-6 or 8-7. The winner is in cleanly, the loser hopes Oslo chokes.

Thanks for posting Very nice to see this!

Thanks for taking the time to write this up.

yea this looks very good! I appreciate you taking your time on this

fumbles killed Koln

some one changed depth chart for KR, and it was a mess, 4 fumbles from the special teams.

speed means nothing if you dont have pts in carrying. ewf!

http://goallineblitz.com/game/compare_teams.pl?team1=6365&team2=6368

Looks liek a good game they should lose to helsinki so if we beat them that gives the Marlins the 3rd seed (unless we get supset)