Things are looking like a real dogfight for that 8th playoff spot. We will take a closer look at who might come out at that spot at the end of this week's report. But first, we have some outstanding games to discuss!
Game of the Week #1.....Battle at the Top
Osaka vs. Wake Island
3 weeks ago, I would not have given the Destroyers a chance to keep this game close...but then 2 things happened. The Destroyers beat the Volcano handily, and the Devil Dogs beat the Buckeyes handily in the much ballyhooed "friendly" match. Now....I have to give the Destroyers a chance...not a good one, but a reasonable one. They have earned it. That being said, I don't think the Destroyers will be able to "out dot" the Buckeyes, they will have to have a great game plan and have the sim implement it perfectly for them to win. I don't see that happening. Wake has shown they can play with any team in the conference so far. I am interested to see how they do against the Buckeyes. Will they be able to shut down the Buckey offense? If so, their chance to win goes up dramatically. Will they be able to put enough points up to take advantage of a good Destroyer defensive performance? I think the answer to both of these questions is no. In a game that I will finally pick correct with the Destroyers involved in a big game, the Buckeyes win this one in a game that will be closer than the final score. Osaka by 3 TD's.
Game of the Week #2.....Who wants to Host a Playoff Game?
Antarctica vs. Vanuatu
This game pits an explosive Volcano offense against a sometimes dominating Seal's defense. Something has to give. The winner will have the inside track for hosting a home playoff game and all its rewards. The Voclano have been solid most of the year with some impressive wins against good teams. They will try to add the Seals to that list. The Seals have never beaten the Volcano....but maybe....just maybe...this is the season. This will be a very close game that may very well be decided on a last minute score or late turnover. Both teams can score, but I would give the edge to Vanuatu there. If this gets into a shootout, the Seals may still not have a win over the Volcano to show for their efforts. If the Seal's defense can slow down the Volcano offense, the Seal's offense if good enough to provide a win. Bottom line is that both are solid teams on both sides of the ball. This could be one of those who has the ball last games. Based on nothing but hope, I am calling this one for the Seals by 7. This should be a great game.
Game of the Week #3.....There is no Tomorrow!
USGD vs. Gold Coast
This is it for Gold Coast. They have no room left for an up and down performance. With their remaining schedule, this is must game for the Samaurai. The Dynasty have done things by 3's the first nine games of the season, win 3, lose 3, win three....lose 3? Maybe...but I don't think so. The Dynasty have the inside track on a playoff position, but they need this game to lock it in. They finish with a very tough schedule and except for the Drunk Fu game, wins could be hard to come by. A victory over the Samauri guarantees the Dynasty 8 wins at least and should guarantee a playoff spot. For the Samaurai, a loss here and it really does look grim to make the playoffs. The Samaurai still need 2 upsets to make them. This, while an evenly matched game on paper, would qualify as one of them. Although a very small one. I see this as a close game where the Dynasty's rebound from the pounding administered by Vanuatu and break the "season of 3's" with a good win against the Samaurai. USGD by 1 TD.
Game of the Week #4.....Big step possible here
Newcastle vs. Tonga
The Terror had a very big win last week against Tuvalu that put them right back in the playoff picture. They will have to pull 1 upset off to make the playoffs though. A win here, and I think Tonga can start prining tickets! But...hold the presses! Yes they need 1 upset, but they will still need 1 upset after this week. The Terror have been a bit up and down all year, and after this game, it will be in the down direction. Tonga can make things easy on themselves with a win here, but the Minotaurs won't be cooperating. The Terror won't be scaring the Mino's. Newcastle wins handily by 4 TD's.
Minimum write up games:
Chillicothe vs. Penrith
Convicts and Outlaws get together for a brawl. The Outlaws are bringing knives to a gun fight. Chillicothe big and easy by lots.
SAFS vs. Hattrick
The SAFS keep in the running for the playoffs with an easy win over Hattrick. SAFS by 4 TD's.
Cairns vs Drunk Fu
The Fire get a much deserved win over the Drunk Fu. Cairns by lots.
Tuvalu vs. Sydney
The Matadors coast by the Hammerhead in this game to stay tied for the last playoff spot. Tuvalu by lots.
Conference Leader:
Osaka
Conference Challengers"
Newcastle
Antarctica
Wake Island
Vanuatu
Chillicothe
Playoff Contenders:
Tuvalu (even in spite of loss to Tonga)
USGD
SAFS
Tonga
Playoff Longshot
Gold Coast
Best of the Rest:
Penrith
Hattrick
Cairns
Sydney
Drunk Fu
Playoff Look in the Crystal Ball:
Osaka.....in and hosting
Newcastle.....in and hosting
Wake Island...in
Antarctica...in
Vanuatu...in
Chillicothe...in
USGD...probably in
Tuvalu...best chance of the 5-5's
SAFS...good chance to make it
Tonga...same chance as SAFS
Gold Coast...real long shot, but could be done.
Why I rated their chances like I did was based on the comparative schedules:
Wake Island:
They finish up with Osaka, USGD, Chillicothe, Antarctica, SAFS, and Drunk Fu. That is a tough finishing schedule and it would not be surprising to see the Destroyers lose 2-3 games. 12-4 probably won't host a 1st round playoff game. The game with the Seals may be for hosting rights, depending on the Seals/Volcano game.
Antactica:
They finish with Vanuatu, Gold Coast, USGD, Wake, Drunk Fu, and Tuvalu. If they want to host a first round playoff, the push begins against the Volcano. They will be favored against all the other teams with the possible exception of Wake, but except for the Drunk Fu, and maybe Gold Coast (who knows?) they will all be tough games.
Vanuatu:
They finish with Antarctica, Drunk Fu, Tuvalu, Newcastle, Hattrick, and Penrith. They have 3 walk overs and 3 tough games. If they beat Antarctica, they are in a great position to host due to tie breakers. If they lose, they will probably not be hosting and will settle in at the #5 spot.
Chillicothe:
Convicts finish with Penrith, Osaka, Wake, SAFS, Tonga, and Sydney. They have 2 walk overs and 4 tough games. I don't think they will hosting a first round playoff due to losses to the Volcano and Seals. One of them, if not both, will beat them in the tie breaker more than likely.
Now the fun starts!
USGD:
Finish with Gold Coast, Wake, Antarctica, Drunk Fu, Tuvalu, Newcastle. If they beat Gold Coast, they have a walkover with the Drunk Fu and will be in the playoffs. If they lose this week, they will have to beat one of either Wake, Antarctica, Tuvalu or Newcastle....and that will be hard to do. Big game for USGD this week.
Tuvalu:
Finsh with Sydney, Cairns, Vanuatu, Gold Coast, USGD, Antarctica. They will pick up 2 wins the next 2 weeks and will just need to win one other game to get to 8 wins. I think their best chance is Gold Coast or USGD and I also think the Matadors do it and get in the playoffs as the #7 or #8 seed. The USGD game may decide that seeding.
SAFS:
Finish with Hattrick, Penrith, Osaka, Chillicothe, Wake, Tonga. They will be 7-5 needing 1 win in their last 4 games. Their best bet is the Tonga game. It is possible that game will fill the 8th playoff spot. The win over USGD may be huge after week 16 on tie breaks.
Tonga:
Finish with Newcastle, Hattrick, Penrith, Osaka, Chillicothe, SAFS. The SAFS game may well be the make or break game for Tonga. They will get to 7 wins with Hattrick and Penrith. Where is #8 coming from?
Now...8-8 may not be enough to get in this season. With the teams we have right now with 4 to 6 wins and the remaining schedules, I think we will see the tie breaks come into play.
If I have to pick right now, I would go with USGD and Tuvalu for those final spots. But to be sure, one of them will have to step up to 9 wins. It would not be good to be 8-8 and watching the playoffs from the outside. Only thing I know for sure is it will be an interesting finish!
Game of the Week #1.....Battle at the Top
Osaka vs. Wake Island
3 weeks ago, I would not have given the Destroyers a chance to keep this game close...but then 2 things happened. The Destroyers beat the Volcano handily, and the Devil Dogs beat the Buckeyes handily in the much ballyhooed "friendly" match. Now....I have to give the Destroyers a chance...not a good one, but a reasonable one. They have earned it. That being said, I don't think the Destroyers will be able to "out dot" the Buckeyes, they will have to have a great game plan and have the sim implement it perfectly for them to win. I don't see that happening. Wake has shown they can play with any team in the conference so far. I am interested to see how they do against the Buckeyes. Will they be able to shut down the Buckey offense? If so, their chance to win goes up dramatically. Will they be able to put enough points up to take advantage of a good Destroyer defensive performance? I think the answer to both of these questions is no. In a game that I will finally pick correct with the Destroyers involved in a big game, the Buckeyes win this one in a game that will be closer than the final score. Osaka by 3 TD's.
Game of the Week #2.....Who wants to Host a Playoff Game?
Antarctica vs. Vanuatu
This game pits an explosive Volcano offense against a sometimes dominating Seal's defense. Something has to give. The winner will have the inside track for hosting a home playoff game and all its rewards. The Voclano have been solid most of the year with some impressive wins against good teams. They will try to add the Seals to that list. The Seals have never beaten the Volcano....but maybe....just maybe...this is the season. This will be a very close game that may very well be decided on a last minute score or late turnover. Both teams can score, but I would give the edge to Vanuatu there. If this gets into a shootout, the Seals may still not have a win over the Volcano to show for their efforts. If the Seal's defense can slow down the Volcano offense, the Seal's offense if good enough to provide a win. Bottom line is that both are solid teams on both sides of the ball. This could be one of those who has the ball last games. Based on nothing but hope, I am calling this one for the Seals by 7. This should be a great game.
Game of the Week #3.....There is no Tomorrow!
USGD vs. Gold Coast
This is it for Gold Coast. They have no room left for an up and down performance. With their remaining schedule, this is must game for the Samaurai. The Dynasty have done things by 3's the first nine games of the season, win 3, lose 3, win three....lose 3? Maybe...but I don't think so. The Dynasty have the inside track on a playoff position, but they need this game to lock it in. They finish with a very tough schedule and except for the Drunk Fu game, wins could be hard to come by. A victory over the Samauri guarantees the Dynasty 8 wins at least and should guarantee a playoff spot. For the Samaurai, a loss here and it really does look grim to make the playoffs. The Samaurai still need 2 upsets to make them. This, while an evenly matched game on paper, would qualify as one of them. Although a very small one. I see this as a close game where the Dynasty's rebound from the pounding administered by Vanuatu and break the "season of 3's" with a good win against the Samaurai. USGD by 1 TD.
Game of the Week #4.....Big step possible here
Newcastle vs. Tonga
The Terror had a very big win last week against Tuvalu that put them right back in the playoff picture. They will have to pull 1 upset off to make the playoffs though. A win here, and I think Tonga can start prining tickets! But...hold the presses! Yes they need 1 upset, but they will still need 1 upset after this week. The Terror have been a bit up and down all year, and after this game, it will be in the down direction. Tonga can make things easy on themselves with a win here, but the Minotaurs won't be cooperating. The Terror won't be scaring the Mino's. Newcastle wins handily by 4 TD's.
Minimum write up games:
Chillicothe vs. Penrith
Convicts and Outlaws get together for a brawl. The Outlaws are bringing knives to a gun fight. Chillicothe big and easy by lots.
SAFS vs. Hattrick
The SAFS keep in the running for the playoffs with an easy win over Hattrick. SAFS by 4 TD's.
Cairns vs Drunk Fu
The Fire get a much deserved win over the Drunk Fu. Cairns by lots.
Tuvalu vs. Sydney
The Matadors coast by the Hammerhead in this game to stay tied for the last playoff spot. Tuvalu by lots.
Conference Leader:
Osaka
Conference Challengers"
Newcastle
Antarctica
Wake Island
Vanuatu
Chillicothe
Playoff Contenders:
Tuvalu (even in spite of loss to Tonga)
USGD
SAFS
Tonga
Playoff Longshot
Gold Coast
Best of the Rest:
Penrith
Hattrick
Cairns
Sydney
Drunk Fu
Playoff Look in the Crystal Ball:
Osaka.....in and hosting
Newcastle.....in and hosting
Wake Island...in
Antarctica...in
Vanuatu...in
Chillicothe...in
USGD...probably in
Tuvalu...best chance of the 5-5's
SAFS...good chance to make it
Tonga...same chance as SAFS
Gold Coast...real long shot, but could be done.
Why I rated their chances like I did was based on the comparative schedules:
Wake Island:
They finish up with Osaka, USGD, Chillicothe, Antarctica, SAFS, and Drunk Fu. That is a tough finishing schedule and it would not be surprising to see the Destroyers lose 2-3 games. 12-4 probably won't host a 1st round playoff game. The game with the Seals may be for hosting rights, depending on the Seals/Volcano game.
Antactica:
They finish with Vanuatu, Gold Coast, USGD, Wake, Drunk Fu, and Tuvalu. If they want to host a first round playoff, the push begins against the Volcano. They will be favored against all the other teams with the possible exception of Wake, but except for the Drunk Fu, and maybe Gold Coast (who knows?) they will all be tough games.
Vanuatu:
They finish with Antarctica, Drunk Fu, Tuvalu, Newcastle, Hattrick, and Penrith. They have 3 walk overs and 3 tough games. If they beat Antarctica, they are in a great position to host due to tie breakers. If they lose, they will probably not be hosting and will settle in at the #5 spot.
Chillicothe:
Convicts finish with Penrith, Osaka, Wake, SAFS, Tonga, and Sydney. They have 2 walk overs and 4 tough games. I don't think they will hosting a first round playoff due to losses to the Volcano and Seals. One of them, if not both, will beat them in the tie breaker more than likely.
Now the fun starts!
USGD:
Finish with Gold Coast, Wake, Antarctica, Drunk Fu, Tuvalu, Newcastle. If they beat Gold Coast, they have a walkover with the Drunk Fu and will be in the playoffs. If they lose this week, they will have to beat one of either Wake, Antarctica, Tuvalu or Newcastle....and that will be hard to do. Big game for USGD this week.
Tuvalu:
Finsh with Sydney, Cairns, Vanuatu, Gold Coast, USGD, Antarctica. They will pick up 2 wins the next 2 weeks and will just need to win one other game to get to 8 wins. I think their best chance is Gold Coast or USGD and I also think the Matadors do it and get in the playoffs as the #7 or #8 seed. The USGD game may decide that seeding.
SAFS:
Finish with Hattrick, Penrith, Osaka, Chillicothe, Wake, Tonga. They will be 7-5 needing 1 win in their last 4 games. Their best bet is the Tonga game. It is possible that game will fill the 8th playoff spot. The win over USGD may be huge after week 16 on tie breaks.
Tonga:
Finish with Newcastle, Hattrick, Penrith, Osaka, Chillicothe, SAFS. The SAFS game may well be the make or break game for Tonga. They will get to 7 wins with Hattrick and Penrith. Where is #8 coming from?
Now...8-8 may not be enough to get in this season. With the teams we have right now with 4 to 6 wins and the remaining schedules, I think we will see the tie breaks come into play.
If I have to pick right now, I would go with USGD and Tuvalu for those final spots. But to be sure, one of them will have to step up to 9 wins. It would not be good to be 8-8 and watching the playoffs from the outside. Only thing I know for sure is it will be an interesting finish!
Last edited Dec 1, 2008 07:09:46
