Oceania AA#2 Title Game: Illesheim Krauts v. Tonga Thunderbirds
This title game has the makings of a special one. One team that most expected to be in this position against one team very few people believed could make it this far. One team riding a 19-game winning streak since being bounced from the playoffs in Season 4 against one team who literally needed a favorable Zeta draw just to get into the playoffs. The definition of David vs. Goliath. Will Tonga complete the perfect season in AA#2, etching their names beside the Melbourne Thorny Devils and the Molokai Lavastorm? Or will the Illesheim Krauts notch another surprising win, this one being the most surprising of all, in this "Year of the Upsets". Time will tell. The analysis of Illesheim v. Tonga, coming up next!
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Previous Meetings
Season 3, Week 16:http://goallineblitz.com/game/game.pl?game_id=60317.
Tonga won this meeting by the odd score of 38-5. Some may say that this is long ago and far away, but a surprising amount of the same cast is there from this first game, especially for Illesheim. Will Illesheim remember this game and vow payback, or will Tonga go to 2-0 lifetime against the Krauts?
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Analysis by Unit
Passing:
Tonga comes in with the 12th-ranked passing attack on the season: 4497 yards, 65.2% completion, 12.7 yards/completion, 46 TD, 9 INT, 4 sacks. Illesheim comes in with the 8th-ranked passing attack in the league: 5180 yards, 72.5% completion, 9.5 yards/completion, 35 TD, 9 INT, 15 sacks. Illesheim has the more prolific and accurate passing attack, while Tonga has shown a better propensity to strike gold in the passing game while protecting their quarterbacks very well. Given the strength of the Thunderbird rushing attack and the fact that they can put the pass with it this seamlessly, I'm giving a VERY slight edge to Tonga.
Edge: VERY slight edge-Tonga
Rushing:
Everyone knows about the fierce Thunderbird 2nd-ranked rushing attack: 4705 yards, 6.8 yards/carry, 88 TDs, 21 FF, 14 FL. The Illesheim 18th-ranked rushing attack isn't nearly as imposing: 2165.5 yards, 4.8 yards/carry, 44 TDs, 11 FF, 4 FL. Though Illesheim protects the football rather well, the Thunderbird offense can totally dominate a game just by pounding the football down an opponent's throats. Tonga doesn't have the league's 3rd-leading rusher and biggest TD threat for nothing. Tonga has a clear advantage here.
Edge: BIG edge-Tonga
Passing Defense:
This is the closest of any two statistics, by far. Tonga owns the 18th-ranked passing defense in the league: 243.8 yards/game, 15 TDs allowed. Illesheim coincidentally has the 19th-best passing defense in the league: 241.9 yards/game, 22 TDs allowed. On the surface, this appears to be a wash. However, teams have really focused on trying to exploit Tonga's pass defense as of late; some may call it the lesser of the two evils. Tonga's passing defense still remains solid, though, giving up 7 less defensive TDs than Illesheim. I'm going to go with Tonga's passing defense here, but it's fairly close.
Edge: Slight edge-Tonga
Rushing Defense:
Tonga has the clear advantage here with their 5th-ranked rushing defense: 58.5 yards/game, 8 TDs allowed. Illesheim's 16th-ranked rushing defense is no slouch on its own: 96.2 yards/game, 14 TDs. Tonga has the edge in TDs allowed by 6, and Tonga gives up nearly 40 yards less per game on the ground than the Krauts. However, the Krauts have faced far more of a rushing attack than the Thunderbirds have, and this weighs in their favor. In the end, I think the Thunderbirds have the edge here.
Edge: Edge-Tonga
Result:
In the end, I think Tonga just has too much firepower for the Krauts to contain. However, anything's possible when looking at Illesheim: they had to slay 2 giants to get here, and I have no doubts that they'll play without fear or abandon. However, I think the clock will strike midnight on Illesheim's Cinderella season; Tonga's undefeated season should culminate in a ticker-tape parade in Nuku'alofa.
Score Prediction:
Tonga-37
Illesheim-17
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As always, I don't mean any disrespect to Illesheim. I just roleplay an impartial sports reporter who just so happened to stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night! I also wanted to do something special before heading off to the pastures of AAA#1. Also, this might make up for not doing a Playoff Prediction thread before Week 15. It's truly been fun, gentlemen, and I hope you've enjoyed them as much as I've enjoyed bringing them to you.
This title game has the makings of a special one. One team that most expected to be in this position against one team very few people believed could make it this far. One team riding a 19-game winning streak since being bounced from the playoffs in Season 4 against one team who literally needed a favorable Zeta draw just to get into the playoffs. The definition of David vs. Goliath. Will Tonga complete the perfect season in AA#2, etching their names beside the Melbourne Thorny Devils and the Molokai Lavastorm? Or will the Illesheim Krauts notch another surprising win, this one being the most surprising of all, in this "Year of the Upsets". Time will tell. The analysis of Illesheim v. Tonga, coming up next!
------------------------------------------------------------
Previous Meetings
Season 3, Week 16:http://goallineblitz.com/game/game.pl?game_id=60317.
Tonga won this meeting by the odd score of 38-5. Some may say that this is long ago and far away, but a surprising amount of the same cast is there from this first game, especially for Illesheim. Will Illesheim remember this game and vow payback, or will Tonga go to 2-0 lifetime against the Krauts?
------------------------------------------------------------
Analysis by Unit
Passing:
Tonga comes in with the 12th-ranked passing attack on the season: 4497 yards, 65.2% completion, 12.7 yards/completion, 46 TD, 9 INT, 4 sacks. Illesheim comes in with the 8th-ranked passing attack in the league: 5180 yards, 72.5% completion, 9.5 yards/completion, 35 TD, 9 INT, 15 sacks. Illesheim has the more prolific and accurate passing attack, while Tonga has shown a better propensity to strike gold in the passing game while protecting their quarterbacks very well. Given the strength of the Thunderbird rushing attack and the fact that they can put the pass with it this seamlessly, I'm giving a VERY slight edge to Tonga.
Edge: VERY slight edge-Tonga
Rushing:
Everyone knows about the fierce Thunderbird 2nd-ranked rushing attack: 4705 yards, 6.8 yards/carry, 88 TDs, 21 FF, 14 FL. The Illesheim 18th-ranked rushing attack isn't nearly as imposing: 2165.5 yards, 4.8 yards/carry, 44 TDs, 11 FF, 4 FL. Though Illesheim protects the football rather well, the Thunderbird offense can totally dominate a game just by pounding the football down an opponent's throats. Tonga doesn't have the league's 3rd-leading rusher and biggest TD threat for nothing. Tonga has a clear advantage here.
Edge: BIG edge-Tonga
Passing Defense:
This is the closest of any two statistics, by far. Tonga owns the 18th-ranked passing defense in the league: 243.8 yards/game, 15 TDs allowed. Illesheim coincidentally has the 19th-best passing defense in the league: 241.9 yards/game, 22 TDs allowed. On the surface, this appears to be a wash. However, teams have really focused on trying to exploit Tonga's pass defense as of late; some may call it the lesser of the two evils. Tonga's passing defense still remains solid, though, giving up 7 less defensive TDs than Illesheim. I'm going to go with Tonga's passing defense here, but it's fairly close.
Edge: Slight edge-Tonga
Rushing Defense:
Tonga has the clear advantage here with their 5th-ranked rushing defense: 58.5 yards/game, 8 TDs allowed. Illesheim's 16th-ranked rushing defense is no slouch on its own: 96.2 yards/game, 14 TDs. Tonga has the edge in TDs allowed by 6, and Tonga gives up nearly 40 yards less per game on the ground than the Krauts. However, the Krauts have faced far more of a rushing attack than the Thunderbirds have, and this weighs in their favor. In the end, I think the Thunderbirds have the edge here.
Edge: Edge-Tonga
Result:
In the end, I think Tonga just has too much firepower for the Krauts to contain. However, anything's possible when looking at Illesheim: they had to slay 2 giants to get here, and I have no doubts that they'll play without fear or abandon. However, I think the clock will strike midnight on Illesheim's Cinderella season; Tonga's undefeated season should culminate in a ticker-tape parade in Nuku'alofa.
Score Prediction:
Tonga-37
Illesheim-17
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As always, I don't mean any disrespect to Illesheim. I just roleplay an impartial sports reporter who just so happened to stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night! I also wanted to do something special before heading off to the pastures of AAA#1. Also, this might make up for not doing a Playoff Prediction thread before Week 15. It's truly been fun, gentlemen, and I hope you've enjoyed them as much as I've enjoyed bringing them to you.
Last edited Oct 28, 2008 01:01:30