Warrior General Games

Key Week 14 Matchups ----- Predictions: 3-1 ----- Score Differential: -56 ----- (+18) + (-1) + (-49) + (-24)


#1 - Gods vs. Kava Sharks (IC has the third easiest schedule remaining and the tiebreaker -- Gods need an upset and some help for a home game, though its unlikely to happen this season.)

BOLD PREDICTION: Kava Sharks 27, Gods 24

ACTUAL RESULT: Kava Sharks 24, Gods 3 (Well, not even close on this one other than for Vanuatu's score...Gods offense couldn't do much all day.)

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#2 - Stingers vs. Incinerators (Fiji wants to bring home a playoff spot and hold the tiebreaker over the Crimson Auha, while IC wants to secure a home game in the playoffs. With two tough games left on the schedule, Fiji needs an upset somewhere, but it doesn't come this week.)

BOLD PREDICTION: Incinerators 33, Stingers 23

ACTUAL RESULT: Incinerators 23, Stingers 14 (Overestimated what each offense would do for this one, but pretty much had the margin of victory on lock down.)

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#3 - 'Nites vs. Titans (The 'Nites will be foaming at the mouths after what many will consider being upset by Vanuatu in week 13. There is no good time to catch the 'Nites, but the Titans catch them at the absolute worst time. I'm predicting a bloodbath.)

BOLD PREDICTION: 'Nites 52, Titans 13

ACTUAL RESULT: Nites 17, Titans 27 (Not even close...I tip my hats to the Titans for this one!)

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#4 - Heat vs. Blitz (The Heat are looking to wrap up 1st place and homefield advantage over the last three weeks, while the Blitz need wins and some help to keep their playoff dreams alive. Unfortunately for Co-op, the end of the road is week 14.)

BOLD PREDICTION: Heat 62, Blitz 3

ACTUAL RESULT: Heat 52, Blitz 17 (If only I had used my Game #3 prediction for this game...big Heat win regardless.)

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Toughest Remaining Schedules

Brisbane Gods (24-4)
- Key Matchups: Week 15 Nites, Week 16 TIT's (WOW!)

Big Island Growas (23-5)
- Key Matchups: Week 15 Heat, Week 16 Mustangs (WOW!)

Tongan Crimson Auha (18-10)
- Key Matchups: Week 15 Titans, Week 16 Burning Pride

Rawle Tech Titans (14-14)
- Key Matchups: Week 15 Auha, Week 16 Strike

Easiest Remaining Schedules

Brisbane Heat (6-22)
- Key Matchups: Week 15 Growas

IC Incinerators (9-19)
- Key Matchups: Week 16 Pioneers

Vanuatu Kava Sharks (12-16)
- Key Matchups: Week 16 Sea Turtles

Fiji Stingers (12-16)
- Key Matchups: Week 16 Fighting Squirrels

Melbourne Thorny Devils (12-16)
- Key Matchups: Week 16 Invaders (slightly tougher than VKS & Fiji due to OOC match)

Banzai Pipeline 'Nites (13-15)
- Key Matchups: Week 15 Gods

Eliminated
- Co-op City Blitz (loss in week 14 officially sends them to the links)
- Nauru Tiger Sharks (loss in week 13 officially sends them down the pipe)
- Saipan Fighters (1-5 vs. the teams they can catch with a 4-0 finish. With only 1 meaningful conference game left, they can't even play the role of spoiler this season)
- Jakarta Men O'War (Can't catch any current playoff teams, looking to next season)
- Cleveland Dawg Pound (Can't catch any current playoff teams, looking to next season)
- Great Barrier Reef Sharks (Relegation pending to AAA)

Key Week 15 Matchups

#1 - Gods vs. 'Nites (The Nites have dropped two in a row now, but I can't expect this trend to continue. I think it will be a tight game and this is the best chance the Gods have for an upset.)

BOLD PREDICTION: Nites 24, Gods 10

#2 - Crimson Auha vs. Titans (The Titans are riding high after a big upset over the Nites, but the Crimson Auha really need a win here as they lose the tiebreaker to Fiji.)

BOLD PREDICTION: Titans 37, Auha 34

#3 - Growas vs. Heat (The Heat are scoring the most and allowing the least in Zeta. The Growas are playing better and fighting for their playoff lives, but its too little, too late)

BOLD PREDICTION: Heat 56, Growas 16

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BOLDER PREDICTION:

Zeta Conference Final Regular Season Standings

1. *Brisbane Heat (15-1)
2. *Vanuatu Kava Sharks (15-1)
3. *IC Incinerators (13-3)
4. *Banzai Pipeline 'Nites (13-3)
5. Rawle Tech Titans (11-5)
6. *Brisbane Gods (10-6)
7. *Melbourne Thorny Devils (10-6)
8. Fiji Stingers (8-8)
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9. Tongan Crimson Auha (8-8)
10. Big Island Growas (6-10)
11. Saipan Fighters (6-10)
12. Co-op City Blitz (5-11)
13. Nauru Tiger Sharks (3-13)
14. Jakarta Men O' War (3-13)
15. Cleveland Dawg Pound (1-15)
16. Great Barrier Reef Sharks (0-16)

*clinched playoff spot
Eliminated

What teams need to get in

Rawle Tech Titans - Winning this week vs. the Crimson Auha is key and will lock Rawle Tech into the playoffs. A loss this week leaves the Titans with H2H losses against the Gods, Thorny Devils, Crimson Auha and Stingers, all four of which are fighting for bottom half of the playoffs position. And to think, after an upset win over the 'Nites, they haven't clinched.

Fiji Stingers - They are praying for RTT to beat Tongan this week, as the Stingers beat the Crimson Auha earlier this season. Fiji can get in if they win out and Tongan goes 0-2 or 1-1. If Fiji goes 1-1, they need the Crimson Auha to go 0-2 to secure a trip to the playoffs. Obviously if the Stingers lose out, they aren't getting in.

Tongan Crimson Auha - While they don't have the tiebreaker with Fiji, they do have a game in hand. That said, they have a tougher schedule ahead of them. Winning out guarantees them a spot, but losing even one game could be costly. There is also a scenario which could see RTT, TCA & FS all tied at 9-5, in which case the tiebreaker currently goes to Tongan, but that scenario is highly unlikely.

Big Island Growas - They have the worst odds of any team to get in, and not just because they are 6-8 and have to win out. They have the Heat this week which will likely eliminate their chances.

Alpha Conference

Key Week 14 Matchups ----- Predictions: 2-1 ----- Score Differential: -34 ----- (-11) + (-11) + (-12)

#1 - Pioneers vs. TiT's (The Pioneers are clinging to the final playoff spot, and appears to be catching a sagging bunch of TiT's. I don't think they've drooped so much that they can't pull off a win over the Pro Rookies from Grinnell.)

BOLD PREDICTION: TiT's 38, Pioneers 23

ACTUAL RESULT: TiT's 20, Pioneers 16 (Just an impressive defensive performance by the Pioneers who managed under 100 yards of offense...looking at the box score, one would think I underestimated the TiT's.)

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#2 - Strike vs. Fighting Squirrels (If the Strike are serious about a run for the playoffs, this is the week to start. However, Wagga Wagga is no easy win as the Tide just found out. The Fighting Squirrels have too much late season fight in them and crush Canberra's hopes in Week 14.)

BOLD PREDICTION: Fighting Squirrels 30, Strike 17

ACTUAL RESULT: Fighting Squirrels 20, Strike 19 (Much closer than anticipated, this was a solid game. Wagga Wagga held on for dear life.)

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#3 - Burning Pride vs. Tide (The battle for a home playoff spot gets no better than this game between the upstart Burning Pride and the Tide, who have held an upper spot all season. New Zealand continues their run up the charts in the closest battle of the week.)

BOLD PREDICTION: Burning Pride 27, Tide 26

ACTUAL RESULT: Burning Pride 10, Tide 20 (After giving praise to the Tide's defense in my last prediction, it appears I soured too quickly on it.)

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Toughest Remaining Schedules

Grinnell Pioneers (27-12)
- Key Matchups: Week 15 Bandits, Week 16 Incinerators

Tonga Ikale Tahi (26-13)
Key Matchups: Week 15 Mustangs, Week 16 Gods

Canberra Strike (25-14)
- Key Matchups: Week 15 Burning Pride, Week 16 Titans

Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels (24-15)
Key Matchups: Week 14 Strike, Week 15 Invaders, Week 16 Stingers

New Zealand Burning Pride (22-17)
Key Matchups: Week 15 Strike, Week 16 Crimson Auha

Brantford Mustangs (20-19)
Key Matchups: Week 15 TiT's, Week 16 Growas

Easiest Remaining Schedules

Mean Machine (5-34)
- Key Matchups: None

Brisbane Bandits (9-30)
- Key Matchups: Week 15 Pioneers

East Coast Tide (16-23)
Key Matchups: None

West Scranton Invaders (16-23)
Key Matchups: Week 15 Fighting Squirrels, Week 16 Thorny Devils

Fiji Sea Turtles (17-22)
Key Matchups: Week 16 Kava Sharks

Eliminated
- Perth Scorpions (officially eliminated in week 13)
- Emerald City Flying Monkeys (While they could achieve 6-wins, the W/L vs. teams above they could tie knocks them out)
- Auckland Flames (While they could achieve 6-wins, the W/L vs. teams above they could tie knocks them out)
- Aussie Cardinals (While they could achieve 6-wins, the W/L vs. teams above they could tie knocks them out)
- New Zealand Warriors (Relegation Pending)

Key Week 15 Matchups

#1 - Pioneers vs. Bandits (Now sitting on the outside looking in, despite a solid defensive performance in Week 14, the Pioneers need a win, and it comes this week over the Bandits, ending their playoff dreams.)

BOLD PREDICTION: Pioneers 28, Bandits 24

#2 - Strike vs. Burning Pride (Still with an outside shot to earn an Alpha playoff berth, the Burning Pride hand the Strike their second straight loss and eliminate them from playoff competition.)

BOLD PREDICTION: Burning Pride 31, Strike 20

#3 - TiT's vs. Mustangs (The TiT's are looking to secure the second seed while the Mustangs would love to earn a home game. Should be a well fought match)

BOLD PREDICTION: TiT's 34, Mustangs 27

#4 - Invaders vs. Fighting Squirrels (The Invaders are getting ready for the playoffs while Wagga Wagga is looking to secure their berth with a win. West Scranton will take this one home though.)

BOLD PREDICTION: Invaders 38, Fighting Squirrels 18

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BOLDER PREDICTION:

Alpha Conference Final Regular Season Standings

1. *Mean Machine (16-0)
2. *Tonga Ikale Tahi (15-1)
3. *West Scranton Invaders (14-2)
4. *East Coast Tide (11-5)
5. New Zealand Burning Pride (11-5)
6. *Brantford Mustangs (11-5)
7. Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels (10-6)
8. Fiji Sea Turtles (8-8)
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9. Grinnell Pioneers (8-8)
10. Brisbane Bandits (7-9)
11. Canberra Strike (6-10)
12. Emerald City Flying Monkeys (4-12)
13. Perth Scorpions (3-13)
14. Auckland Flames (2-14)
15. Aussie Cardinals (2-14)
16. New Zealand Warriors (0-16)

*clinched playoff spot
Eliminated

What teams need to get in

New Zealand Burning Pride - With two games in hand and a 3-1 record vs. teams below them trying to get in (Strike up this week), the playoffs are all but assured. A win this week over the Strike would put the matter to bed.

Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels - With two games in hand and a 3-2 record vs. teams below them trying to get in, the playoffs are nearly in their grasp. However, with West Scranton on deck and a tough crossover match with Fiji, there is no guarantee. Obviously a win locks them up, otherwise they are looking for a Sea Turtles or Pioneers loss at any point to secure their berth.

Fiji Sea Turtles - This is where things get complicated. The good news is Fiji holds the tiebreaker over the Pioneers, Bandits and Strike. The bad news is they lost to Wagga Wagga and the Burning Pride. A pileup at 9-7 would get them in with a 3-2 record against common opponents. Otherwise, they just need to maintain an even record with any of the teams below them to secure their spot.

Grinnell Pioneers - They need to finish with a better record than Fiji to get in, meaning 2-0 vs. Fiji's 1-1 or 1-1 vs. Fiji's 0-2 over the final two weeks. As mentioned in the Fiji post, a massive pileup at 8-8 or 9-7 doesn't work in their favour due to tiebreakers.

Brisbane Bandits - They need Fiji to lose out, but a win this week over Grinnell would give them a tiebreaker bonus, meaning they could tie the Pioneers at 8-8 and make it in, even if the Strike also made it to 8-8, as a 3-way tie gives Brisbane the 8th spot.

Canberra Strike - Basically, they almost need to win out and have everyone else lose to earn a spot as they don't hold enough tiebreakers. They do hold a tiebreaker vs. Grinnell though, so it is possible that if Fiji & Brisbane lose out, Grinnell goes 1-1 and Canberra goes 2-0 that the Strike could sneak into the playoffs.

Great stuff bro. Good work!!

Originally posted by killertoad
Great stuff bro. Good work!!

Thanks, all done now, both Alpha and Zeta.

How do you like the possible rematch with the 'Nites in round 1

EDIT: Current Expected Playoff Matches

Zeta

Brisbane Heat hosting Fiji Stingers
Banzai Pipeline 'Nites hosting Rawle Tech Titans
IC Incinerators hosting Brisbane Gods
Vanuatu Kava Sharks hosting Melbourne Thorny Devils

Alpha

Mean Machine hosting Fiji Sea Turtles
East Coast Tide hosting New Zealand Burning Pride
West Scranton Invaders hosting Brantford Mustangs
Tonga Ikale Tahi hosting Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels

No no no no once is enough.

Originally posted by killertoad
No no no no once is enough.

At this point, it almost doesn't really matter who gets the 'Nites. They will be pissed off and ready for blood.

Tonga and Brantford have a long and storied history. Its a game we are looking forward to.

Nice write up.

Originally posted by McGruffHawk
Originally posted by killertoad

No no no no once is enough.

At this point, it almost doesn't really matter who gets the 'Nites. They will be pissed off and ready for blood.

yeah i really hope the Nites finish 3rd and not 4th. id like to delay a potential rematch as long as possible.

Stop picking us to win!

Good read!

Originally posted by McGruffHawk
Originally posted by killertoad

No no no no once is enough.

At this point, it almost doesn't really matter who gets the 'Nites. They will be pissed off and ready for blood.

Tonga and Brantford have a long and storied history. Its a game we are looking forward to.

Unfortunately there is no "pissed off" magical sleeve of wizard for us to up our game after b2b losses.

ETA: Nice work as always Scace!!!

At this rate, we're probably gonna get housed by the "other" Brisbane team! oh!:



I honestly don't know where we stand at the moment. Hopefully get some things figured out in time for the playoffs. Which, by the way, should be outstanding this year!

Since all of the teams are going to be tough in the playoffs, IC doesn't care who we play because we are gonna bring it!

We do want one more chance to beat RTT though if the seedings work out just so.

awesome thread man... thanks for figuring this all out!~!

There are no tokens in the playoffs.

The 'Nites are still the favorites in my book.