Ok, this is rare that I would have time to do this on the weekend.
Week 1: 14-1 (7-1 Alpha, 7-0 Zeta [1 tie])
Week 2: 15-1 (7-1 Alpha, 8-0 Zeta)
Week 3: 14-2 (7-1 Alpha, 7-1 Zeta)
Week 4: 14-2 (7-1 Alpha, 7-1 Zeta)
Week 5: 13-3 (8-0 Alpha, 5-3 Zeta)
Week 6: 15-1 (8-0 Alpha, 7-1 Zeta)
Week 7: 14-2 (7-1 Alpha, 7-1 Zeta)
Week 8: 14-2 (7-1 Alpha, 7-1 Zeta)
Week 9: 13-3 (6-2 Alpha, 7-1 Zeta)
Week 10: 12-4 (6-2 Alpha, 6-2 Zeta)
Week 11: 15-1 (8-0 Alpha, 7-1 Zeta)
Week 12: 15-1 (8-0 Alpha, 7-1 Zeta)
Week 13: 15-1 (8-0 Alpha, 7-1 Zeta)
Week 14: 13-3 (7-1 Alpha, 6-2 Zeta)
These are "adjusted" values based on Coach Ratings. "Raw" numbers are in parenthesis. If the "raw" number is less than 50, then that indicates the opposite team would have been picked with "raw" numbers.
Alpha
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86.46 (78.62) - Rotterdam Rampage over Green Bay Cheese Heads
-Rotterdam rolls in their final Alpha game against winless Cheese Heads. Both Rotterdam and The Dark Knights have tough Zeta matchups, but as long as the Rampage can keep up, they will be in the #5 seed with the tie-breaker.
-Green Bay finishes up their winless Alpha season, before getting crushed by Everett.
82.96 (76.73) - Chernobyl Disaster over Grodno Pirates
-It would have to be a strange scenario for the Disaster to lose the #1 Alpha seed, but it is still mathematically possible. With a win over the Pirates, the seed will be sealed.
-The Pirates will extend their losing streak through the end of the year with 2 more losses.
74.61 (68.56) - The Dark Knights over Texas City Storm
-It looks like The Dark Knights will be in the #6 Alpha seed unless Rotterdam faulters and the Knights can hold on the Impalers.
-Texas City gets a lucky draw from Zeta and will be able to end their season with a win, but not before getting 1 more in the L column.
70.76 (59.93) - East Berlin Blitzkrieg over Whiskey River Wranglers
-With a win over the Rowdies, East Berlin just needs to hang on and let Krakow lose to get back their #2 Alpha seed. If they slip up against Odessa or Krakow pulls the upset over Brown Bay, then East Berlin will be stuck at #3.
-The Wranglers' offense couldn't get going versus a pretty good opponent last week. This weeks assignment is going to be even tougher. Whiskey River gets break for the last game with the CPU Storm.
58.46 (55.56) - Krakow Krakodiles over Liverpool Poison
-Krakow is currently the #4 Alpha seed and will most likely stay there. After a pretty easy matchup with Liverpool, the Kraks will need to knock off Brown Bay and hope for the Rowdies to lose a game.
-This matchup may look easy for Krakow, but Liverpool pulled an upset of a good Rotterdam team last week. Liverpool will have to get another upset this week and hope that the winner of the Vipers/CHUDS game loses to a Zeta if they want to claim that #8 Alpha seed. I'm sure I'll be picking River City over Liverpool in Week 16, but the Poison will have a good chance at a win against the underachieving Ransom.
57.97 (54.65) - Minsk Fire over Moscow Red Army
-After maybe the toughest opening schedule in Alpha, the Fire was able to come back and get a few wins. They have a good chance at another win this week and should be a slight favorite in Week 16 against Crete.
-Moscow can beat the seemingly unmanned teams at the bottom of Alpha, but won't be getting anymore wins this season.
54.76 (51.50) - Romania Roadhouse Rowdies over Nizhny Novgorod Bulldogs
-Currently holding the #2 Alpha seed, the Rowdies will need to keep winning to hold their place. Only problem is their lose to East Berlin. This means they could win out and still drop to the #3 seed. If Krakow loses to Brown Bay, Rowdies will drop behind East Berlin.
-After this week, the Bulldogs may join a 3-way tie for the last 2 Alpha seeds. But unless Liverpool upsets Krakow, the Bulldogs will be in a tie with the winner of the Vipers/CHUDS game. With a win over both teams, the Bulldogs will hold on to the #7 Alpha seed at least 1 more week. They'll have to prove that deserve it will a tough Zeta matchup against Athens.
51.70 (51.86) - Diaper Vipers over Chernobyl CHUDS
-Seems like I've already talked this matchup to death. Simply put, the winner of this game holds the #8 Alpha seed going into Zeta week. And unless Liverpool can get 2 more upsets this season, the winner will hold that seed for the tournament.
Playoff Prediction (no formula used):
#1 - Disaster
#2 - Blitzkrieg
#3 - Rowdies
#4 - Krakow
#5 - Rotterdam
#6 - Knights
#7 - Bulldogs
#8 - Vipers
Zeta
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91.24 (82.53) - Targoviste Impalers over Macedonian Phalanx
-All 3 teams that are tied for Zeta seeds 4-6 have 1 more likely win and 1 likely loss. Guess which this is for Targoviste. Unless someone can pull an upset, the tie should still stand at the end of regular season. However, it will likely be a 4-way tie by then. More on that later. Impalers remain #4 Zeta seed.
-No points for the Phalanx, lots of points for the other guys.
89.26 (81.39) - Brown Bay Packers over Bergen Storm
-With the tie breaker over the Inquisition, Brown Bay will formally tie up the #1 Zeta seed with this ridiculous will over the CPU Storm.
-Bergen will probably give up more points than they have all year. Could it go over the 200 point mark? Yea, most likely.
61.45 (57.99) - Belgrade Bears over Crete Minotaurs
-Same story as for the Impalers. Tie will probably remain in place and even get a 4th. I haven't done tie breaker calculations for the 4-way, but Belgrade will likely be the #6 Zeta seed.
-Crete will try to help break the 4,5,6 tie, but will probably fall short. They will have an important Week 16 game with an evenly matched Minsk team.
55.78 (53.47) - Spanish Inquisition over Athens Gods
-The Inquisition should formally wrap-up the #2 Zeta seed this week. But if they somehow get 2 more losses, Barcelona may try to take it with 2 more winable games for them.
-Athens' 5-game losing streak could easily end up being 7. If they don't stop the slide in 1 of the 2 final games, then Everett will grab the #8 Zeta seed with an easy Alpha win over Green Bay.
55.62 (51.74) - Barcelona Chupacabras over Warsaw Sabotage
-Barcelona has 2 winable games, but will remain the #3 Zeta seed if the Inquisition gets at least 1 more win.
-Sabotage have a chance to show they can knock off a top level opponent this week. But even if they don't, they will get a win in Week 16 versus a weak Alpha team.
52.05 (50.16) - Odessa Pipers over Everett Wildcats
-The middle man in the 4,5,6 tie, Odessa will stay put. Unless, of course, Everett is able to extend their win streak to 9. If that happens Odessa will drop to #8 Zeta seed.
-Everett is on a roll and need 1 more win (and an Athens loss) to get the #8 spot. Athens has a very tough 2 games and the Wildcats have a guaranteed victory over Green Bay in Week 16. Odessa is a very good team, but I'm going to go ahead and call this the upset of the week.
52.00 (51.79) - Rammstein Rampage over Justice League
-The winner of this matchup will claim the coveted 13 spot in the Zeta rankings. Too bad this close matchup means nothing. It's one of the few close games in Week 15.
50.58 (53.53) - River City Ransom over Boston Piggers
-I know my formula has River City winning this one, but I don't really think they have a chance. Boston is a tough team and should win a close game. With a loss here, River City will take themselves out of the playoff picture. They may have a chance to get a Zeta win in Week 16 though.
-And finally I'll get back to the 4,5,6 tie. With a possible win this week and a favorable matchup with Moscow next week, Boston will enter the 4,5,6 tie.
Playoff Prediction (no formula used):
#1 - Packers
#2 - Inquisition
#3 - Chupacabras
#4 #5 #6 - Impalers, Bears, Piggers (don't have time to look up the tie-breaker)
#7 - Wildcats
#8 - Pipers
Week 1: 14-1 (7-1 Alpha, 7-0 Zeta [1 tie])
Week 2: 15-1 (7-1 Alpha, 8-0 Zeta)
Week 3: 14-2 (7-1 Alpha, 7-1 Zeta)
Week 4: 14-2 (7-1 Alpha, 7-1 Zeta)
Week 5: 13-3 (8-0 Alpha, 5-3 Zeta)
Week 6: 15-1 (8-0 Alpha, 7-1 Zeta)
Week 7: 14-2 (7-1 Alpha, 7-1 Zeta)
Week 8: 14-2 (7-1 Alpha, 7-1 Zeta)
Week 9: 13-3 (6-2 Alpha, 7-1 Zeta)
Week 10: 12-4 (6-2 Alpha, 6-2 Zeta)
Week 11: 15-1 (8-0 Alpha, 7-1 Zeta)
Week 12: 15-1 (8-0 Alpha, 7-1 Zeta)
Week 13: 15-1 (8-0 Alpha, 7-1 Zeta)
Week 14: 13-3 (7-1 Alpha, 6-2 Zeta)
These are "adjusted" values based on Coach Ratings. "Raw" numbers are in parenthesis. If the "raw" number is less than 50, then that indicates the opposite team would have been picked with "raw" numbers.
Alpha
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86.46 (78.62) - Rotterdam Rampage over Green Bay Cheese Heads
-Rotterdam rolls in their final Alpha game against winless Cheese Heads. Both Rotterdam and The Dark Knights have tough Zeta matchups, but as long as the Rampage can keep up, they will be in the #5 seed with the tie-breaker.
-Green Bay finishes up their winless Alpha season, before getting crushed by Everett.
82.96 (76.73) - Chernobyl Disaster over Grodno Pirates
-It would have to be a strange scenario for the Disaster to lose the #1 Alpha seed, but it is still mathematically possible. With a win over the Pirates, the seed will be sealed.
-The Pirates will extend their losing streak through the end of the year with 2 more losses.
74.61 (68.56) - The Dark Knights over Texas City Storm
-It looks like The Dark Knights will be in the #6 Alpha seed unless Rotterdam faulters and the Knights can hold on the Impalers.
-Texas City gets a lucky draw from Zeta and will be able to end their season with a win, but not before getting 1 more in the L column.
70.76 (59.93) - East Berlin Blitzkrieg over Whiskey River Wranglers
-With a win over the Rowdies, East Berlin just needs to hang on and let Krakow lose to get back their #2 Alpha seed. If they slip up against Odessa or Krakow pulls the upset over Brown Bay, then East Berlin will be stuck at #3.
-The Wranglers' offense couldn't get going versus a pretty good opponent last week. This weeks assignment is going to be even tougher. Whiskey River gets break for the last game with the CPU Storm.
58.46 (55.56) - Krakow Krakodiles over Liverpool Poison
-Krakow is currently the #4 Alpha seed and will most likely stay there. After a pretty easy matchup with Liverpool, the Kraks will need to knock off Brown Bay and hope for the Rowdies to lose a game.
-This matchup may look easy for Krakow, but Liverpool pulled an upset of a good Rotterdam team last week. Liverpool will have to get another upset this week and hope that the winner of the Vipers/CHUDS game loses to a Zeta if they want to claim that #8 Alpha seed. I'm sure I'll be picking River City over Liverpool in Week 16, but the Poison will have a good chance at a win against the underachieving Ransom.
57.97 (54.65) - Minsk Fire over Moscow Red Army
-After maybe the toughest opening schedule in Alpha, the Fire was able to come back and get a few wins. They have a good chance at another win this week and should be a slight favorite in Week 16 against Crete.
-Moscow can beat the seemingly unmanned teams at the bottom of Alpha, but won't be getting anymore wins this season.
54.76 (51.50) - Romania Roadhouse Rowdies over Nizhny Novgorod Bulldogs
-Currently holding the #2 Alpha seed, the Rowdies will need to keep winning to hold their place. Only problem is their lose to East Berlin. This means they could win out and still drop to the #3 seed. If Krakow loses to Brown Bay, Rowdies will drop behind East Berlin.
-After this week, the Bulldogs may join a 3-way tie for the last 2 Alpha seeds. But unless Liverpool upsets Krakow, the Bulldogs will be in a tie with the winner of the Vipers/CHUDS game. With a win over both teams, the Bulldogs will hold on to the #7 Alpha seed at least 1 more week. They'll have to prove that deserve it will a tough Zeta matchup against Athens.
51.70 (51.86) - Diaper Vipers over Chernobyl CHUDS
-Seems like I've already talked this matchup to death. Simply put, the winner of this game holds the #8 Alpha seed going into Zeta week. And unless Liverpool can get 2 more upsets this season, the winner will hold that seed for the tournament.
Playoff Prediction (no formula used):
#1 - Disaster
#2 - Blitzkrieg
#3 - Rowdies
#4 - Krakow
#5 - Rotterdam
#6 - Knights
#7 - Bulldogs
#8 - Vipers
Zeta
----------
91.24 (82.53) - Targoviste Impalers over Macedonian Phalanx
-All 3 teams that are tied for Zeta seeds 4-6 have 1 more likely win and 1 likely loss. Guess which this is for Targoviste. Unless someone can pull an upset, the tie should still stand at the end of regular season. However, it will likely be a 4-way tie by then. More on that later. Impalers remain #4 Zeta seed.
-No points for the Phalanx, lots of points for the other guys.
89.26 (81.39) - Brown Bay Packers over Bergen Storm
-With the tie breaker over the Inquisition, Brown Bay will formally tie up the #1 Zeta seed with this ridiculous will over the CPU Storm.
-Bergen will probably give up more points than they have all year. Could it go over the 200 point mark? Yea, most likely.
61.45 (57.99) - Belgrade Bears over Crete Minotaurs
-Same story as for the Impalers. Tie will probably remain in place and even get a 4th. I haven't done tie breaker calculations for the 4-way, but Belgrade will likely be the #6 Zeta seed.
-Crete will try to help break the 4,5,6 tie, but will probably fall short. They will have an important Week 16 game with an evenly matched Minsk team.
55.78 (53.47) - Spanish Inquisition over Athens Gods
-The Inquisition should formally wrap-up the #2 Zeta seed this week. But if they somehow get 2 more losses, Barcelona may try to take it with 2 more winable games for them.
-Athens' 5-game losing streak could easily end up being 7. If they don't stop the slide in 1 of the 2 final games, then Everett will grab the #8 Zeta seed with an easy Alpha win over Green Bay.
55.62 (51.74) - Barcelona Chupacabras over Warsaw Sabotage
-Barcelona has 2 winable games, but will remain the #3 Zeta seed if the Inquisition gets at least 1 more win.
-Sabotage have a chance to show they can knock off a top level opponent this week. But even if they don't, they will get a win in Week 16 versus a weak Alpha team.
52.05 (50.16) - Odessa Pipers over Everett Wildcats
-The middle man in the 4,5,6 tie, Odessa will stay put. Unless, of course, Everett is able to extend their win streak to 9. If that happens Odessa will drop to #8 Zeta seed.
-Everett is on a roll and need 1 more win (and an Athens loss) to get the #8 spot. Athens has a very tough 2 games and the Wildcats have a guaranteed victory over Green Bay in Week 16. Odessa is a very good team, but I'm going to go ahead and call this the upset of the week.
52.00 (51.79) - Rammstein Rampage over Justice League
-The winner of this matchup will claim the coveted 13 spot in the Zeta rankings. Too bad this close matchup means nothing. It's one of the few close games in Week 15.
50.58 (53.53) - River City Ransom over Boston Piggers
-I know my formula has River City winning this one, but I don't really think they have a chance. Boston is a tough team and should win a close game. With a loss here, River City will take themselves out of the playoff picture. They may have a chance to get a Zeta win in Week 16 though.
-And finally I'll get back to the 4,5,6 tie. With a possible win this week and a favorable matchup with Moscow next week, Boston will enter the 4,5,6 tie.
Playoff Prediction (no formula used):
#1 - Packers
#2 - Inquisition
#3 - Chupacabras
#4 #5 #6 - Impalers, Bears, Piggers (don't have time to look up the tie-breaker)
#7 - Wildcats
#8 - Pipers
Last edited Oct 19, 2008 16:25:35
j/k
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