Good afternoon, everyone! It's so hard to believe that it's already the time in the season when we start talking about playoff predictions; it just seems like yesterday when recruiting was finalized and we all laced up our cleats to take the field of battle! This season has certainly been unique for Oceania AA#2, considerably unlike what Season 3 and Season 4 brought us. There are two teams in a class of their own atop Zeta. In first are the undefeated 11-0 Tonga Thunderbirds, who by virtue of their win over the Christchurch Knightmares are on the fast track to home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. In second are these very same Knightmares, who at 10-1 are two games up on third and look to be rolling toward two playoff home games. Third and fourth are occupied by a pair of solid 8-3 teams in El Fuego and the Chinese Bandits, respectively. Below that, in 5th-8th respectively, are a logjam of teams looking to etch out their own playoff destiny: Solomon Islands Alchemy, Mauna Kea Chenabogs, The Four Horsemen, and Dunedin Wolverines. Two games behind them at 5-6, in 9th and 10th respectively, are two teams on the outside-looking-in for the playoff chase: Tasmania Devils and Uluru Rockies. In 4-7, holding onto the last flickers of playoff life, in 11th and 12th respectively, are the Redscape Diplomats and the Coney Island Warriors. It will certainly be a fun ride to see how this massive playoff picture shakes down! Without further ado, here's each team's individual report!
Games left: 5
Z: clinched home-field throughout the playoffs
Y: clinched 1st-round home playoff game
X: clinched playoff birth
Standings:
1-X: Tonga Thunderbirds, 11-0
2: Christchurch Knightmares, 10-1
3: El Fuego, 8-3
4: Chinese Bandits, 8-3
5: Solomon Islands Alchemy, 7-4
6: Mauna Kea Chenabogs, 7-4
7: The Four Horsemen, 7-4
8: Dunedin Wolverines, 7-4
------------------------------------------------------------
9: Tasmania Devils, 5-6
10: Uluru Rockies, 5-6
11: Redscape Diplomats, 4-7
12: Coney Island Warriors, 4-7
Team scenarios:
1. Tonga Thunderbirds: 1st, 11-0
You might think that after beating the Christchurch Knightmares in the Zeta Conference "Game of the Year" that the Thunderbirds might glide through the following week. There were no symptoms of a letdown this week, as the Thunderbirds demolished playoff-hopeful Uluru Rockies 52-3 on Uluru's own turf. This week brings a critical game for the Thunderbirds, as the Dunedin Wolverines come to town to battle; I foresee the Thunderbirds winning this game by about two scores, but it's certainly possible that Dunedin may be able to pull out a big upset in the islands. In Week 13, the Thunderbirds travel to the Los Cabolo Sharks; this is a game that's as close to a triple-digit lock as we will see in Zeta this season. The following week, the Thunderbirds face the upstart Solomon Island Alchemy at home; the Alchemy have done a fantastic job since their promotion, but I foresee a two-score Thunderbird win. In the Week 15 Zeta finale, Tonga will travel to meet the Redscape Diplomats; I just cannot see Redscape hanging tough in this one, as Tonga should put up a multi-score win on the fledgling Diplomats. The Week 16 Alpha matchup is interesting, as the Thunderbirds fly into Alice Springs to take on a strong, much-improved Fire team; though the Fire may be able to shock the league and pull the upset, I see the Thunderbirds as two-score winners in this showdown. The path that lies ahead for Tonga is not without bends and bumps, but at the end, I see the Tongan buzzsaw undefeated at the end of the regular season with home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Predicted finish: 16-0, 1st
2. Christchurch Knightmares: 2nd, 10-1
Christchurch appears to be right on track for the #2-seed in the Zeta Conference playoffs after last week’s heartbreaking loss to the Tonga Thunderbirds. The Knightmares picked themselves right up off the canvas and came back to solidly defeat the Four Horsemen by a 34-24 score. In the epitome of kicking a team while it’s down, Christchurch goes on the road this week to a reeling Uluru Rockies squad that is clinging for its playoff life; I foresee Christchurch pulling away in the second half to an impressive victory over the Rockies. In Week 13, the Knightmares play host to the Tasmania Sand Gnats; look for Christchurch to sail to an easy victory, as I cannot see the Sand Gnats hanging around for long in this one. The following week, the Knightmares travel to Dunedin to take on the Wolverines in what promises to be the “Game of the Week” for Week 14; I predict that Christchurch will win the game, but if any team in Zeta has the ability to upset the Knightmares, it’s Dunedin and their high-powered offense. In Week 15, Christchurch will close out its Zeta schedule by hosting the Mauna Kea Chenabogs; though the Chenabog offense is tough, the Christchurch defense is like a bear trap, and I see Christchurch zooming away to a three-score victory. Much like Tonga, the Knightmares are faced with a tough Alpha draw, as they travel to meet the Thatto Heath Teeth Smashers; though I see the Knightmares winning by a couple of touchdowns, I wouldn’t find it impossible for the Teeth Smashers to steal one for Alpha here. 5-0 looks to be the likely course for the rest of this season, but the road has a few bumps along the way.
Predicted finish: 15-1, 2nd
3. El Fuego: 3rd, 8-3
Now this is where the playoff picture really starts cooking, as there are six teams within just one game of each other in the Zeta Playoff Picture. The first of these teams is El Fuego, who have absolutely flipped a switch on offense as of late, and that has shown up this past week in a 58-31 pasting of the playoff-contending Mauna Kea Chenabogs. This week, Fuego travels to meet the Brisbane Brown Bears; in all likelihood, Fuego will put up a high triple-digit number is dismantling the relegation-bound Brown Bears. In Week 13, Fuego hosts the Cimmerian Barbarians; though Cimmerian was the playoff crasher last season, there will be no such magic this season, as I foresee nothing but a lopsided Fuego victory in this one. The following week, Fuego travels to Coney Island to take on the Warriors; even though the Warriors are clinging to playoff life, I look for Fuego to douse any flame that remains there, winning by quite a healthy margin here. Fuego closes its Zeta slate in Week 15 against the Tasmania Devils; though the Devils have done quite well this season in being promoted from the A Leagues, I see Fuego pulling away two a two-score victory over the upstart Devils. In quite possibly the oddest scheduling quirk in GLB history, Fuego draws the Tasmanian Devils for a back-to-back home game in Week 16; even crazier, these two teams played to a tie in the preseason; however, I foresee the Devils getting the better of Fuego here, as the strength of the Devils roster may be one score too much for Fuego to overcome. I think 4-1 is the most likely end to Fuego’s season, which would deny Fuego a home-field 1st round game due to their 41-27 loss to the Horsemen back in Week 9; however, an entirely possible defeat of the Alpha Devils in Week 16 could mean the difference between Christchurch and Tonga in the second round!
Predicted finish: 12-4, 5th
4. Chinese Bandits: 8-3, 4th
The Bandits have found themselves in 4th currently, due to the 51-45 shootout loss in the Week 8 to El Fuego. However, the Bandits have been on the winning path lately, picking up their second straight win this week by decking the outmatched Tasmania Sand Gnats by the score of 58-21. This week sees the Bandits take a trip south to meet the Mauna Kea Chenabogs in a matchup with big playoff implications; I believe the Bandits offense is much too powerful for the Chenabogs defense, and I predict a two touchdown margin of victory for the Bandits. In Week 13, the Bandits play host to the Brisbane Brown Bears; however, the Bandits will likely not be gracious hosts, as a triple-digit pasting of the Brown Beans will likely be the Bandits’ gift. The following week, the Bandits travel to face the Cimmerian Barbarians in a clash; again, I see nothing but a clear victory for the Bandits, which would make their third straight. How about making it four straight when the Coney Island Warriors pay a visit in the Zeta finale in Week 15; I think the odds are good for the Bandits here, as I see a three-score victory for Chinese. Unlike the three teams above them, the Bandits get a gift-wrapped Week 16 Alpha draw, as the Vanuatu Gunslingers ride their horses onto the Asian mainland; I see a convincing victory for the Bandits, who just have far too much firepower for the Gunslingers to handle. A 5-0 ending and seven straight wins will likely be the story for the Bandits, who will have absolutely no worries about being on the outside-looking-in for the playoffs in Season 5!
Predicted finish: 13-3, 3rd
5. Solomon Islands Alchemy: 7-4, 5th
Welcome to the Oceania AA#2 Playoff Predictions Thread, Alchemy; you’ve been greeted by a huge traffic jam of teams all sitting at 7-4 and who all want to claw up these rankings as quickly as possible. However, when you’re rolling off five straight victories, like the 41-13 waltz over the Cimmerian Barbarians this past week, it’s going to be difficult for any team to catch you. This week, you travel to Coney Island to face the Warriors who are fighting with everything they’ve got for playoff life; however, I see you all sticking the final knife in those dreams, as you all should be two touchdown favorites in this game. In Week 13, you all host the Tasmania Devils in the “Season 4 Promoted Teams Bowl”; though Tasmania has a solid defense, I believe the Alchemy are the more complete package, and a 10-13 point victory here wouldn’t surprise me greatly at all. However, the following week you travel to Tonga to take on the mighty Thunderbirds; though the Alchemy has the potential to keep this game fairly close, I see the Thunderbirds emerging victorious by about a two-score margin. In Week 15, you complete your Zeta schedule with the Uluru Rockies; Uluru’s got some talent, but the Alchemy just has more of it, and a 17-20 point victory wouldn’t surprise this prognosticator in the least. However, for the Week 16 Alpha Draw, you get the Easter Island Moai as a gift; this game has some upset potential, but I cannot choose against the strong, established Moai team who look to be about a touchdown favorite in my eyes. 3-2 won’t be a bad way to end your regular season, though it’ll not be enough for a home playoff game this season as the Alchemy will likely be looking at the #7-seed, based on their Week 1 23-20 loss to the Dunedin Wolverines.
Predicted finish: 10-6, 7th
6. Mauna Kea Chenabogs: 7-4, 6th
The Mauna Kea Chenabogs are the enigma of the league to me; they started out this season a RED HOT 7-1, losing only to Tonga while closely beating many of the playoff contenders, from Dunedin on down. However, the Chenabogs have run into some VERY rough fortune of late, allowing 53 points/game while dropping their third straight game this week to El Fuego, 58-31. There is positively no rest for the weary, as the Chenabogs face the Chinese Bandits at home this week; with the current slide, I do not see the Chenabogs winning, and I predict a two-score margin of defeat. The road just gets darker as the Chenabogs travel to the Four Horsemen in Week 13 for a battle; again, I do not see the offense of the Chenabogs overpowering a solid Horsemen defense, and I predict another two-score margin of defeat here. However, there is some light at the end of the tunnel, as the Tasmania Sand Gnats come to visit the week after; if the morale of the Chenabogs can hold up, I really think their offense can lead them to a three-score victory over the fledgling Sand Gnats. However, as easy as that should be, the Week 15 finale is a TOUGH battle at Christchurch against the Knightmares; the Knightmare defense should be able to handily control the Chenabogs offense by about a three-touchdown differential. However, like a gift from the heavens, the Week 16 Alpha draw for Mauna Kea is unbelievably friendly, as they get the winless Williamsport Soul Reavers; of course, I see Mauna Kea winning this one quite easily. 9-7 should be enough to get Mauna Kea into the playoffs this season for the first time ever, but they have to be rather disappointed after starting this season 7-1 and with so much promise.
Predicted finish: 9-7, 8th
7. The Four Horsemen: 7th, 7-4
The Horsemen are the perfect example of a team that has been hampered early by a very tough schedule, having already played Tonga, Christchurch, Chinese, and Solomon Islands; the rest of their schedule looks much more manageable. Last week, the Horsemen played admirably, yet dropped a very hard-fought contest to the favored Christchurch Knightmares by the score of 34-24. This week, the Horsemen travel to face off against the Tasmania Sand Gnats; I believe the Horsemen will prevail this game in a rout, as Tasmania just doesn’t have the power to stop this attack. In Week 13, the Horsemen host Mauna Kea in a showdown of playoff hopefuls; though Mauna Kea’s offense is strong, the Horsemen defense is stronger, and I see the Horsemen holding on for a two-score win. The following week, the Horsemen travel to Brisbane to take on the Brown Bears; as with the other opponents who have faced the Brown Bears, I see a healthy, triple-digit victory in the Horsemen’s future. The hits just keep on coming, as the Horsemen close out their Zeta schedule in Week 15 at home against the Cimmerian Barbarians; as with the previous four contests, I see a healthy win here for the Horsemen, and possibly a route in this game. The Horsemen get an easier Alpha draw that most, as they host The Throwback Cowboys in Week 16; I see the Horsemen pulling away to a three-score victory or larger in that one. The Horsemen are now the benefactors of an easy schedule, and thanks to the 41-27 win over El Fuego in Week 9, they may very possibly host a home playoff game this season!
Predicted finish: 12-4, 4th
8. Dunedin Wolverines: 8th, 7-4
Dunedin is a team who has struggled quite a bit earlier this season, but has now really turned it on coming down the playoff stretch, having marched to 4 straight victories, though one is over a current true playoff contender. That game occurred this last week, as Dunedin took a huge bite out of the Tasmania Devils defense, hanging up a 42-24 win over the impressive Devils squad. This week, however, brings a tougher foe as the Wolverines travel to Tonga to take on a potent, vicious Thunderbirds squad Hell bent on seeking revenge for Season 4; I do think the Thunderbirds will walk away from the victory here, but Dunedin has always matched up very well with Tonga, and an upset wouldn’t be the most shocking thing in the world. In Week 13, Dunedin hosts the Uluru Rockies; the Rockies have really just slipped down the charts as of late, and I expect a solid 14-17 point victory out of the Wolverines in this contest. The following week, the Wolverines also host the tough-as-nails Christchurch Knightmares; I would predict a 10-13 point victory for the Knightmares, but Dunedin is tough and can certainly hold their own in Week 14’s “Game of the Week”. Dunedin closes out their Zeta schedule by traveling to the relegation-destined Los Cabolo Sharks in Week 15; as has been the case all season, expect nothing different than a triple-digit win by Dunedin, as the sharks just don’t have the personnel this season. In Week 16, Dunedin gets a very favorable Alpha matchup when they travel to meet the South Australian Serial Killers; however, I expect Dunedin to do all the killing in this one, pulling away to a comfortable multi-score victory. 3-2 looks like a probable ending to the Wolverines, who have grown more potent by the day; however, there is good news, as their Week 1 23-20 win over the Solomon Islands Alchemy will propel them up the playoff ladder by one rung.
Predicted finish: 10-6, 6th
9. Tasmania Devils: 9th, 5-6
Here we begin the analysis of the teams that are likely to be on the outside-looking-in for the Zeta Playoff Picture, and we begin this grouping with the scrappy, tough Tasmania Devils, who have beaten the teams they’ve needed to beat to get into this position in the first place. Last week, however, the Devils did not have enough to muster a few critical defensive stands; they dropped a tough contest to the Dunedin Wolverines, 42-24. However, Week 13 brings some hope, as the Devils host the Los Cabolo Sharks; the question is not whether Tasmania will win, but can they reach triple-digits against this once very-proud franchise. The following week, however, the Devils travel to the Solomon Island Alchemy for the “Season 4 Promotion Bowl” I’ve described above; again, I think the Alchemy have enough to take this game by two scores, but if the Devils show a lot of heart and fight, I do believe they have a shot to contend in this one. The next week, the Devils host the Redscape Diplomats; the Devils should be favored by about two scores in this one, and this would put them back to an even record for their final two games. In Week 15, Tasmania closes out its Zeta schedule by tangling with El Fuego on the road; El Fuego’s just too powerful and too potent, and I see a two-score loss for the Devils in this one. In Week 16, the Devils get an interesting Alpha draw, as they travel to face the Darwin Mud Crabs; this one looks to be VERY tight on paper, but I give a one-score advantage to the Mud Crabs, given their front-line levels and depth across the entire unit. 2-3 looks to be the likely course of action here, which will leave the Devils easily out of the playoffs; however, the best-case scenario is 4-1, and things could get VERY interesting if these Devils could pull two upsets…
Predicted finish: 7-9, 9th
10. Uluru Rockies: 10th, 5-6
Uluru is a great example of a team whose early season schedule has kept them squarely in playoff contention up to this point; however, with the rigorous remaining schedule the Rockies have, I just do not see a playoff push this year for last year’s playoff darlings. This last week was an example of what’s left to come for Uluru, as the Rockies got manhandled by the ferocious Tonga Thunderbirds, 52-3. This week provides little rest for the weary, as the Christchurch Knightmares pull into town to face the struggling Rockies; I foresee Christchurch pulling away to a very comfortable victory, further damaging the morale of Uluru. In Week 13, the road just doesn’t get easier, as the Rockies travel to Dunedin to take on the surging Wolverines; again, I just don’t think Uluru has the talent on the starting roster to hang with Dunedin, and the Wolverines should likely pull away to a two-score victory, or greater. However, the following week brings some comfort, as the Los Cabolo Sharks come to town for a final home game this season; Uluru should win handily in this near-lock, perhaps even scoring triple-digits here. In Week 15, though, the Rockies travel to face the Solomon Islands Alchemy in their Zeta closer; I think the Alchemy should be favored by two scores in this one, as they have done a terrific job in improving their roster after promotion. In Week 16, the Rockies get the most brutal Alpha draw of all, meeting the Sydney Sea Dragons in Sydney for a game; the Dragons may be the very best team in the whole league, and I expect a crushing multi-score victory by the Dragons. The sparkling spirit of Uluru has kept them in it so far, but I believe a 1-4 ending will make them fade into the black reality of missing the playoffs this season; a small silver lining: their Week 1 23-20 win over Redscape should give them sole possession of 10th place.
Predicted finish: 6-10, 10th
11. Redscape Diplomats: 11th, 4-7
Here, Redscape leads the group of teams who are hanging on to their playoff lives by the scantest of margins; Redscape themselves have three wins against the dredges of the league, but picked up an impressive win against Mauna Kea in Week 10. Last week, the Diplomats easily slew the Brisbane Brown Bears by the triple-digit beating of 101-0 to keep their playoff hopes alive at 4-7. This week, the Diplomats travel to take on the Cimmerian Barbarians; I fully expect the Diplomats to keep their hopes alive and pull out a 10-point victory over the struggling Barbarians. In Week 13, the Diplomats will host fellow current 4-7 team Coney Island Warriors at home; the Diplomats will need the win to stay in the playoff hunt, but I believe Coney Island is the better squad, and I see the Warriors winning a hotly-contested game by one score. The following week, the Diplomats travel to Tasmania to take on the Devils; I see the Devils pulling away for a comfortable victory this week, further hampering Redscape. In Week 15, the Diplomats host what many consider to be the most dangerous team in Zeta, the Tonga Thunderbirds; I do not see Redscape hanging tough in this one, as Tonga should likely glide to a three-score victory or better. In Week 16, the Diplomats draw a favorable Alpha matchup with the Manilla Gorillaz; I do see Redscape emerging victorious in this game by a couple of scores. I see Redscape going 2-3 to end this season, but only 5-0 might be good enough; I wish the Diplomats the best of luck, but it’s going to be a struggle. The Week 1 23-20 loss to Uluru and the predicted loss to Coney Island has them ranked third of the predicted 6-10 teams.
Predicted finish: 6-10, 12th
12. Coney Island Warriors: 12th, 4-7
Coney Island is the last team in the Zeta Playoff Prediction with even the faintest glimmer of hope for making the playoffs this season, thanks to beating four weaker teams that they were supposed to beat to get this far. Last week, the Warriors did what they had to do and earned a 101-0 victory over the much-inferior Los Cabolo Sharks, keeping their slim playoff hopes alive at 4-7. This week, however, the Warriors host the Solomon Islands Alchemy; the Warriors will have to bring their A+ game to even have a shot of thinking about an upset, but I do see the Alchemy pulling away to at least a two-score victory in this game. In Week 13, the Warriors travel to face the Redscape Diplomats; both teams are fighting for their playoff lives now, but I believe the Warriors have the roster to eek out a victory over the similarly-situated Diplomats. The following week, the Warriors host El Fuego; Fuego is really rolling in rhythm right now, and I just cannot see the Warriors keeping this game closer than 20 points. In Week 15, Coney Island ends their Zeta schedule by going to the Chinese Bandits; likewise, the Bandits are in pretty solid standing right now, and I expect a similar three-score margin of victory for the Bandits as well. However, the Warriors have a VERY favorable Alpha draw to close out the season, as they travel to meet the New Age Steel Curtain; I would expect a very healthy margin of victory for Coney Island in this one. As with Redscape, 5-0 would be required to MAYBE sneak into the playoffs, and 2-3 just isn’t going to cut it; however, they would have the tiebreaker over them due to their projected win, but would not have the tiebreaker over Uluru, due to a 30-24 Week 9 loss.
Predicted finish: 6-10, 11th
------------------------------------------------------------
I'm glad to bring these back for Season 5, and I'm always glad that the outpouring of support was so great. I hope you all enjoy these as much as I enjoyed bringing them to you. I will be unable to do an Alpha report this week, but I do hope to have them later on this season for those guys. I mean no team any disrespect, but I just call the games as I see them. Best of luck chasing those playoff dreams; I'll be back for Pre-Week 13!
Games left: 5
Z: clinched home-field throughout the playoffs
Y: clinched 1st-round home playoff game
X: clinched playoff birth
Standings:
1-X: Tonga Thunderbirds, 11-0
2: Christchurch Knightmares, 10-1
3: El Fuego, 8-3
4: Chinese Bandits, 8-3
5: Solomon Islands Alchemy, 7-4
6: Mauna Kea Chenabogs, 7-4
7: The Four Horsemen, 7-4
8: Dunedin Wolverines, 7-4
------------------------------------------------------------
9: Tasmania Devils, 5-6
10: Uluru Rockies, 5-6
11: Redscape Diplomats, 4-7
12: Coney Island Warriors, 4-7
Team scenarios:
1. Tonga Thunderbirds: 1st, 11-0
You might think that after beating the Christchurch Knightmares in the Zeta Conference "Game of the Year" that the Thunderbirds might glide through the following week. There were no symptoms of a letdown this week, as the Thunderbirds demolished playoff-hopeful Uluru Rockies 52-3 on Uluru's own turf. This week brings a critical game for the Thunderbirds, as the Dunedin Wolverines come to town to battle; I foresee the Thunderbirds winning this game by about two scores, but it's certainly possible that Dunedin may be able to pull out a big upset in the islands. In Week 13, the Thunderbirds travel to the Los Cabolo Sharks; this is a game that's as close to a triple-digit lock as we will see in Zeta this season. The following week, the Thunderbirds face the upstart Solomon Island Alchemy at home; the Alchemy have done a fantastic job since their promotion, but I foresee a two-score Thunderbird win. In the Week 15 Zeta finale, Tonga will travel to meet the Redscape Diplomats; I just cannot see Redscape hanging tough in this one, as Tonga should put up a multi-score win on the fledgling Diplomats. The Week 16 Alpha matchup is interesting, as the Thunderbirds fly into Alice Springs to take on a strong, much-improved Fire team; though the Fire may be able to shock the league and pull the upset, I see the Thunderbirds as two-score winners in this showdown. The path that lies ahead for Tonga is not without bends and bumps, but at the end, I see the Tongan buzzsaw undefeated at the end of the regular season with home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
Predicted finish: 16-0, 1st
2. Christchurch Knightmares: 2nd, 10-1
Christchurch appears to be right on track for the #2-seed in the Zeta Conference playoffs after last week’s heartbreaking loss to the Tonga Thunderbirds. The Knightmares picked themselves right up off the canvas and came back to solidly defeat the Four Horsemen by a 34-24 score. In the epitome of kicking a team while it’s down, Christchurch goes on the road this week to a reeling Uluru Rockies squad that is clinging for its playoff life; I foresee Christchurch pulling away in the second half to an impressive victory over the Rockies. In Week 13, the Knightmares play host to the Tasmania Sand Gnats; look for Christchurch to sail to an easy victory, as I cannot see the Sand Gnats hanging around for long in this one. The following week, the Knightmares travel to Dunedin to take on the Wolverines in what promises to be the “Game of the Week” for Week 14; I predict that Christchurch will win the game, but if any team in Zeta has the ability to upset the Knightmares, it’s Dunedin and their high-powered offense. In Week 15, Christchurch will close out its Zeta schedule by hosting the Mauna Kea Chenabogs; though the Chenabog offense is tough, the Christchurch defense is like a bear trap, and I see Christchurch zooming away to a three-score victory. Much like Tonga, the Knightmares are faced with a tough Alpha draw, as they travel to meet the Thatto Heath Teeth Smashers; though I see the Knightmares winning by a couple of touchdowns, I wouldn’t find it impossible for the Teeth Smashers to steal one for Alpha here. 5-0 looks to be the likely course for the rest of this season, but the road has a few bumps along the way.
Predicted finish: 15-1, 2nd
3. El Fuego: 3rd, 8-3
Now this is where the playoff picture really starts cooking, as there are six teams within just one game of each other in the Zeta Playoff Picture. The first of these teams is El Fuego, who have absolutely flipped a switch on offense as of late, and that has shown up this past week in a 58-31 pasting of the playoff-contending Mauna Kea Chenabogs. This week, Fuego travels to meet the Brisbane Brown Bears; in all likelihood, Fuego will put up a high triple-digit number is dismantling the relegation-bound Brown Bears. In Week 13, Fuego hosts the Cimmerian Barbarians; though Cimmerian was the playoff crasher last season, there will be no such magic this season, as I foresee nothing but a lopsided Fuego victory in this one. The following week, Fuego travels to Coney Island to take on the Warriors; even though the Warriors are clinging to playoff life, I look for Fuego to douse any flame that remains there, winning by quite a healthy margin here. Fuego closes its Zeta slate in Week 15 against the Tasmania Devils; though the Devils have done quite well this season in being promoted from the A Leagues, I see Fuego pulling away two a two-score victory over the upstart Devils. In quite possibly the oddest scheduling quirk in GLB history, Fuego draws the Tasmanian Devils for a back-to-back home game in Week 16; even crazier, these two teams played to a tie in the preseason; however, I foresee the Devils getting the better of Fuego here, as the strength of the Devils roster may be one score too much for Fuego to overcome. I think 4-1 is the most likely end to Fuego’s season, which would deny Fuego a home-field 1st round game due to their 41-27 loss to the Horsemen back in Week 9; however, an entirely possible defeat of the Alpha Devils in Week 16 could mean the difference between Christchurch and Tonga in the second round!
Predicted finish: 12-4, 5th
4. Chinese Bandits: 8-3, 4th
The Bandits have found themselves in 4th currently, due to the 51-45 shootout loss in the Week 8 to El Fuego. However, the Bandits have been on the winning path lately, picking up their second straight win this week by decking the outmatched Tasmania Sand Gnats by the score of 58-21. This week sees the Bandits take a trip south to meet the Mauna Kea Chenabogs in a matchup with big playoff implications; I believe the Bandits offense is much too powerful for the Chenabogs defense, and I predict a two touchdown margin of victory for the Bandits. In Week 13, the Bandits play host to the Brisbane Brown Bears; however, the Bandits will likely not be gracious hosts, as a triple-digit pasting of the Brown Beans will likely be the Bandits’ gift. The following week, the Bandits travel to face the Cimmerian Barbarians in a clash; again, I see nothing but a clear victory for the Bandits, which would make their third straight. How about making it four straight when the Coney Island Warriors pay a visit in the Zeta finale in Week 15; I think the odds are good for the Bandits here, as I see a three-score victory for Chinese. Unlike the three teams above them, the Bandits get a gift-wrapped Week 16 Alpha draw, as the Vanuatu Gunslingers ride their horses onto the Asian mainland; I see a convincing victory for the Bandits, who just have far too much firepower for the Gunslingers to handle. A 5-0 ending and seven straight wins will likely be the story for the Bandits, who will have absolutely no worries about being on the outside-looking-in for the playoffs in Season 5!
Predicted finish: 13-3, 3rd
5. Solomon Islands Alchemy: 7-4, 5th
Welcome to the Oceania AA#2 Playoff Predictions Thread, Alchemy; you’ve been greeted by a huge traffic jam of teams all sitting at 7-4 and who all want to claw up these rankings as quickly as possible. However, when you’re rolling off five straight victories, like the 41-13 waltz over the Cimmerian Barbarians this past week, it’s going to be difficult for any team to catch you. This week, you travel to Coney Island to face the Warriors who are fighting with everything they’ve got for playoff life; however, I see you all sticking the final knife in those dreams, as you all should be two touchdown favorites in this game. In Week 13, you all host the Tasmania Devils in the “Season 4 Promoted Teams Bowl”; though Tasmania has a solid defense, I believe the Alchemy are the more complete package, and a 10-13 point victory here wouldn’t surprise me greatly at all. However, the following week you travel to Tonga to take on the mighty Thunderbirds; though the Alchemy has the potential to keep this game fairly close, I see the Thunderbirds emerging victorious by about a two-score margin. In Week 15, you complete your Zeta schedule with the Uluru Rockies; Uluru’s got some talent, but the Alchemy just has more of it, and a 17-20 point victory wouldn’t surprise this prognosticator in the least. However, for the Week 16 Alpha Draw, you get the Easter Island Moai as a gift; this game has some upset potential, but I cannot choose against the strong, established Moai team who look to be about a touchdown favorite in my eyes. 3-2 won’t be a bad way to end your regular season, though it’ll not be enough for a home playoff game this season as the Alchemy will likely be looking at the #7-seed, based on their Week 1 23-20 loss to the Dunedin Wolverines.
Predicted finish: 10-6, 7th
6. Mauna Kea Chenabogs: 7-4, 6th
The Mauna Kea Chenabogs are the enigma of the league to me; they started out this season a RED HOT 7-1, losing only to Tonga while closely beating many of the playoff contenders, from Dunedin on down. However, the Chenabogs have run into some VERY rough fortune of late, allowing 53 points/game while dropping their third straight game this week to El Fuego, 58-31. There is positively no rest for the weary, as the Chenabogs face the Chinese Bandits at home this week; with the current slide, I do not see the Chenabogs winning, and I predict a two-score margin of defeat. The road just gets darker as the Chenabogs travel to the Four Horsemen in Week 13 for a battle; again, I do not see the offense of the Chenabogs overpowering a solid Horsemen defense, and I predict another two-score margin of defeat here. However, there is some light at the end of the tunnel, as the Tasmania Sand Gnats come to visit the week after; if the morale of the Chenabogs can hold up, I really think their offense can lead them to a three-score victory over the fledgling Sand Gnats. However, as easy as that should be, the Week 15 finale is a TOUGH battle at Christchurch against the Knightmares; the Knightmare defense should be able to handily control the Chenabogs offense by about a three-touchdown differential. However, like a gift from the heavens, the Week 16 Alpha draw for Mauna Kea is unbelievably friendly, as they get the winless Williamsport Soul Reavers; of course, I see Mauna Kea winning this one quite easily. 9-7 should be enough to get Mauna Kea into the playoffs this season for the first time ever, but they have to be rather disappointed after starting this season 7-1 and with so much promise.
Predicted finish: 9-7, 8th
7. The Four Horsemen: 7th, 7-4
The Horsemen are the perfect example of a team that has been hampered early by a very tough schedule, having already played Tonga, Christchurch, Chinese, and Solomon Islands; the rest of their schedule looks much more manageable. Last week, the Horsemen played admirably, yet dropped a very hard-fought contest to the favored Christchurch Knightmares by the score of 34-24. This week, the Horsemen travel to face off against the Tasmania Sand Gnats; I believe the Horsemen will prevail this game in a rout, as Tasmania just doesn’t have the power to stop this attack. In Week 13, the Horsemen host Mauna Kea in a showdown of playoff hopefuls; though Mauna Kea’s offense is strong, the Horsemen defense is stronger, and I see the Horsemen holding on for a two-score win. The following week, the Horsemen travel to Brisbane to take on the Brown Bears; as with the other opponents who have faced the Brown Bears, I see a healthy, triple-digit victory in the Horsemen’s future. The hits just keep on coming, as the Horsemen close out their Zeta schedule in Week 15 at home against the Cimmerian Barbarians; as with the previous four contests, I see a healthy win here for the Horsemen, and possibly a route in this game. The Horsemen get an easier Alpha draw that most, as they host The Throwback Cowboys in Week 16; I see the Horsemen pulling away to a three-score victory or larger in that one. The Horsemen are now the benefactors of an easy schedule, and thanks to the 41-27 win over El Fuego in Week 9, they may very possibly host a home playoff game this season!
Predicted finish: 12-4, 4th
8. Dunedin Wolverines: 8th, 7-4
Dunedin is a team who has struggled quite a bit earlier this season, but has now really turned it on coming down the playoff stretch, having marched to 4 straight victories, though one is over a current true playoff contender. That game occurred this last week, as Dunedin took a huge bite out of the Tasmania Devils defense, hanging up a 42-24 win over the impressive Devils squad. This week, however, brings a tougher foe as the Wolverines travel to Tonga to take on a potent, vicious Thunderbirds squad Hell bent on seeking revenge for Season 4; I do think the Thunderbirds will walk away from the victory here, but Dunedin has always matched up very well with Tonga, and an upset wouldn’t be the most shocking thing in the world. In Week 13, Dunedin hosts the Uluru Rockies; the Rockies have really just slipped down the charts as of late, and I expect a solid 14-17 point victory out of the Wolverines in this contest. The following week, the Wolverines also host the tough-as-nails Christchurch Knightmares; I would predict a 10-13 point victory for the Knightmares, but Dunedin is tough and can certainly hold their own in Week 14’s “Game of the Week”. Dunedin closes out their Zeta schedule by traveling to the relegation-destined Los Cabolo Sharks in Week 15; as has been the case all season, expect nothing different than a triple-digit win by Dunedin, as the sharks just don’t have the personnel this season. In Week 16, Dunedin gets a very favorable Alpha matchup when they travel to meet the South Australian Serial Killers; however, I expect Dunedin to do all the killing in this one, pulling away to a comfortable multi-score victory. 3-2 looks like a probable ending to the Wolverines, who have grown more potent by the day; however, there is good news, as their Week 1 23-20 win over the Solomon Islands Alchemy will propel them up the playoff ladder by one rung.
Predicted finish: 10-6, 6th
9. Tasmania Devils: 9th, 5-6
Here we begin the analysis of the teams that are likely to be on the outside-looking-in for the Zeta Playoff Picture, and we begin this grouping with the scrappy, tough Tasmania Devils, who have beaten the teams they’ve needed to beat to get into this position in the first place. Last week, however, the Devils did not have enough to muster a few critical defensive stands; they dropped a tough contest to the Dunedin Wolverines, 42-24. However, Week 13 brings some hope, as the Devils host the Los Cabolo Sharks; the question is not whether Tasmania will win, but can they reach triple-digits against this once very-proud franchise. The following week, however, the Devils travel to the Solomon Island Alchemy for the “Season 4 Promotion Bowl” I’ve described above; again, I think the Alchemy have enough to take this game by two scores, but if the Devils show a lot of heart and fight, I do believe they have a shot to contend in this one. The next week, the Devils host the Redscape Diplomats; the Devils should be favored by about two scores in this one, and this would put them back to an even record for their final two games. In Week 15, Tasmania closes out its Zeta schedule by tangling with El Fuego on the road; El Fuego’s just too powerful and too potent, and I see a two-score loss for the Devils in this one. In Week 16, the Devils get an interesting Alpha draw, as they travel to face the Darwin Mud Crabs; this one looks to be VERY tight on paper, but I give a one-score advantage to the Mud Crabs, given their front-line levels and depth across the entire unit. 2-3 looks to be the likely course of action here, which will leave the Devils easily out of the playoffs; however, the best-case scenario is 4-1, and things could get VERY interesting if these Devils could pull two upsets…
Predicted finish: 7-9, 9th
10. Uluru Rockies: 10th, 5-6
Uluru is a great example of a team whose early season schedule has kept them squarely in playoff contention up to this point; however, with the rigorous remaining schedule the Rockies have, I just do not see a playoff push this year for last year’s playoff darlings. This last week was an example of what’s left to come for Uluru, as the Rockies got manhandled by the ferocious Tonga Thunderbirds, 52-3. This week provides little rest for the weary, as the Christchurch Knightmares pull into town to face the struggling Rockies; I foresee Christchurch pulling away to a very comfortable victory, further damaging the morale of Uluru. In Week 13, the road just doesn’t get easier, as the Rockies travel to Dunedin to take on the surging Wolverines; again, I just don’t think Uluru has the talent on the starting roster to hang with Dunedin, and the Wolverines should likely pull away to a two-score victory, or greater. However, the following week brings some comfort, as the Los Cabolo Sharks come to town for a final home game this season; Uluru should win handily in this near-lock, perhaps even scoring triple-digits here. In Week 15, though, the Rockies travel to face the Solomon Islands Alchemy in their Zeta closer; I think the Alchemy should be favored by two scores in this one, as they have done a terrific job in improving their roster after promotion. In Week 16, the Rockies get the most brutal Alpha draw of all, meeting the Sydney Sea Dragons in Sydney for a game; the Dragons may be the very best team in the whole league, and I expect a crushing multi-score victory by the Dragons. The sparkling spirit of Uluru has kept them in it so far, but I believe a 1-4 ending will make them fade into the black reality of missing the playoffs this season; a small silver lining: their Week 1 23-20 win over Redscape should give them sole possession of 10th place.
Predicted finish: 6-10, 10th
11. Redscape Diplomats: 11th, 4-7
Here, Redscape leads the group of teams who are hanging on to their playoff lives by the scantest of margins; Redscape themselves have three wins against the dredges of the league, but picked up an impressive win against Mauna Kea in Week 10. Last week, the Diplomats easily slew the Brisbane Brown Bears by the triple-digit beating of 101-0 to keep their playoff hopes alive at 4-7. This week, the Diplomats travel to take on the Cimmerian Barbarians; I fully expect the Diplomats to keep their hopes alive and pull out a 10-point victory over the struggling Barbarians. In Week 13, the Diplomats will host fellow current 4-7 team Coney Island Warriors at home; the Diplomats will need the win to stay in the playoff hunt, but I believe Coney Island is the better squad, and I see the Warriors winning a hotly-contested game by one score. The following week, the Diplomats travel to Tasmania to take on the Devils; I see the Devils pulling away for a comfortable victory this week, further hampering Redscape. In Week 15, the Diplomats host what many consider to be the most dangerous team in Zeta, the Tonga Thunderbirds; I do not see Redscape hanging tough in this one, as Tonga should likely glide to a three-score victory or better. In Week 16, the Diplomats draw a favorable Alpha matchup with the Manilla Gorillaz; I do see Redscape emerging victorious in this game by a couple of scores. I see Redscape going 2-3 to end this season, but only 5-0 might be good enough; I wish the Diplomats the best of luck, but it’s going to be a struggle. The Week 1 23-20 loss to Uluru and the predicted loss to Coney Island has them ranked third of the predicted 6-10 teams.
Predicted finish: 6-10, 12th
12. Coney Island Warriors: 12th, 4-7
Coney Island is the last team in the Zeta Playoff Prediction with even the faintest glimmer of hope for making the playoffs this season, thanks to beating four weaker teams that they were supposed to beat to get this far. Last week, the Warriors did what they had to do and earned a 101-0 victory over the much-inferior Los Cabolo Sharks, keeping their slim playoff hopes alive at 4-7. This week, however, the Warriors host the Solomon Islands Alchemy; the Warriors will have to bring their A+ game to even have a shot of thinking about an upset, but I do see the Alchemy pulling away to at least a two-score victory in this game. In Week 13, the Warriors travel to face the Redscape Diplomats; both teams are fighting for their playoff lives now, but I believe the Warriors have the roster to eek out a victory over the similarly-situated Diplomats. The following week, the Warriors host El Fuego; Fuego is really rolling in rhythm right now, and I just cannot see the Warriors keeping this game closer than 20 points. In Week 15, Coney Island ends their Zeta schedule by going to the Chinese Bandits; likewise, the Bandits are in pretty solid standing right now, and I expect a similar three-score margin of victory for the Bandits as well. However, the Warriors have a VERY favorable Alpha draw to close out the season, as they travel to meet the New Age Steel Curtain; I would expect a very healthy margin of victory for Coney Island in this one. As with Redscape, 5-0 would be required to MAYBE sneak into the playoffs, and 2-3 just isn’t going to cut it; however, they would have the tiebreaker over them due to their projected win, but would not have the tiebreaker over Uluru, due to a 30-24 Week 9 loss.
Predicted finish: 6-10, 11th
------------------------------------------------------------
I'm glad to bring these back for Season 5, and I'm always glad that the outpouring of support was so great. I hope you all enjoy these as much as I enjoyed bringing them to you. I will be unable to do an Alpha report this week, but I do hope to have them later on this season for those guys. I mean no team any disrespect, but I just call the games as I see them. Best of luck chasing those playoff dreams; I'll be back for Pre-Week 13!
