Zeta Conference Rankings - Week 5
Reference level is 32! Maximum margin of victory is 64 points.
Roster Assessment = 75% levels, 25% stats
Overall Assessment = 65% roster, 20% adjusted vs. expected margin-of-victory, 15% record
1. Tonga Thunderbirds (109.7) - Tonga has been able to parlay late boost each season into a level advantage at most positions. It is worth noting that the 3 1-loss teams in Zeta all got those losses from the as-yet-undefeated Thunderbirds. They get similarly undefeated Mauna Kea today, but should have little trouble proving why rankings have to be based on more than record if they don't want to wait until week 13+ to be accurate.
2. Christchurch Knightmares (108.9) - It's never safe to count them out and they offset a lot of Tonga's advantage through high statistics thanks to getting both gutted teams right off the bat. Their strength has always been in over-performing their raw talent and they'll certainly be in title contention. The Redscape and Coney games should prove little more than a speed bump to this squad en route to a big Fuego showdown.
3. El Fuego (95.8) - A new high for the Fuegans, who have been quite solid but ran into the Tongan buzzsaw week 1. They can't relax though, because the next 5 weeks will either lock them up a home playoff spot, or lock them out of one (Alchemy, Knightmares, Bandits, Horsemen). They have all the pieces needed to go 4-1 and possibly even 5-0 over that stretch, but none of those teams plan on making things easy for them.
4. Dunedin Wolverines (92.4) - As unhappy as they are to be 2-2, they'll need to bring everything they have against their ranking neighbor, the Four Horsemen if they want to avoid 2-3. The season is far from over, but that kind of start would crush their title chances and put a serious dent in the home-field race, especially as it means giving up the tiebreak to the Horsemen.
5. Four Horsemen (87.9) - Huge game this week before the bye, then they get Solomon Islands. Important time for the Horsemen to show people what they are made of.
6. Solomon Island Alchemy (87.4) - The thin sliver of ranking difference should make the Horsemen game in 2 weeks something special. In the meantime, they need to do their best to knock off El Fuego and turn back the Bandit hordes.
7. Mauna Kea Chenabogs (87.1) - Well, is this a first or what? While Mauna Kea's wins haven't been by impressive margins, they still edged three teams that hope to contend for those lower playoff spots, and that has them sitting pretty, absent a collapse of some kind. Next week against Uluru they can practically lock it up by securing yet another tiebreak.
8. Chinese Bandits (87.0) - A high-quality win over Dunedin and roughly expected performance in the other games should mean that we're in good position to see the Bandits repeat their annual dive to miss the playoffs, despite easily having the talent for a spot. OK, just kidding, folks. Maybe.
9. Coney Island Warriors (85.5) - The Chenabogs loss hurts, but otherwise they still have lots of tiebreaker games to get them back into the top 8. No idea what happened Week 1, though.
10. Cimmerian Barbarians (78.9) - After a playoff visit last season, the Barbarians have come out ice-cold, complete with embarassment last week at the hands of the Knightmares. Fortunately, only the loss to the Chenabogs is likely to matter in the long term, so they have plenty of chance to turn things around.
11. Redscape Diplomats (78.1) - I don't know what you guys did to the schedule gods to make them so determined to kill your morale each season before you play all your really important games, but you better be getting some voodoo to fix it somehow. Alchemy, Knightmares, Bandits, Fuego, Horsemen looks a lot like an 0-5 stretch (they've already dropped the first of those) and then you get Mauna Kea shortly afterwards, who might normally be beatable, but probably not after you've lost 20 morale points. Sorry, guys.
12. Uluru Rockies (75.9) - A nice win over rival Redscape, followed up by 3 pretty substantial disappointments leave Uluru fairly low in the rankings for now. At least they get the Sand Gnats to cheer them up.
13. Tasmanian Devils (71.2) - I'm not sure what to think of this team. They seem to play a bunch of close losses to teams that theoretically outclass them, which suggests they have good plans and builds - and then the Sand Gnats give 'em all they can handle. I'm not ready to say they can't be a playoff team yet, but I need more evidence either way.
14. Tasmania Sand Gnats (70.0) - Well, with Brisbane and Los Cabolo around, there's always next season. Getting edged by the Devils hurts bad, and unless Redscape's morale drops too low, the two gutted teams may be their best shot.
The Los Cabolo Sharks and Brisbane Brown Bears are unranked due to incomplete rosters.
Reference level is 32! Maximum margin of victory is 64 points.
Roster Assessment = 75% levels, 25% stats
Overall Assessment = 65% roster, 20% adjusted vs. expected margin-of-victory, 15% record
1. Tonga Thunderbirds (109.7) - Tonga has been able to parlay late boost each season into a level advantage at most positions. It is worth noting that the 3 1-loss teams in Zeta all got those losses from the as-yet-undefeated Thunderbirds. They get similarly undefeated Mauna Kea today, but should have little trouble proving why rankings have to be based on more than record if they don't want to wait until week 13+ to be accurate.
2. Christchurch Knightmares (108.9) - It's never safe to count them out and they offset a lot of Tonga's advantage through high statistics thanks to getting both gutted teams right off the bat. Their strength has always been in over-performing their raw talent and they'll certainly be in title contention. The Redscape and Coney games should prove little more than a speed bump to this squad en route to a big Fuego showdown.
3. El Fuego (95.8) - A new high for the Fuegans, who have been quite solid but ran into the Tongan buzzsaw week 1. They can't relax though, because the next 5 weeks will either lock them up a home playoff spot, or lock them out of one (Alchemy, Knightmares, Bandits, Horsemen). They have all the pieces needed to go 4-1 and possibly even 5-0 over that stretch, but none of those teams plan on making things easy for them.
4. Dunedin Wolverines (92.4) - As unhappy as they are to be 2-2, they'll need to bring everything they have against their ranking neighbor, the Four Horsemen if they want to avoid 2-3. The season is far from over, but that kind of start would crush their title chances and put a serious dent in the home-field race, especially as it means giving up the tiebreak to the Horsemen.
5. Four Horsemen (87.9) - Huge game this week before the bye, then they get Solomon Islands. Important time for the Horsemen to show people what they are made of.
6. Solomon Island Alchemy (87.4) - The thin sliver of ranking difference should make the Horsemen game in 2 weeks something special. In the meantime, they need to do their best to knock off El Fuego and turn back the Bandit hordes.
7. Mauna Kea Chenabogs (87.1) - Well, is this a first or what? While Mauna Kea's wins haven't been by impressive margins, they still edged three teams that hope to contend for those lower playoff spots, and that has them sitting pretty, absent a collapse of some kind. Next week against Uluru they can practically lock it up by securing yet another tiebreak.
8. Chinese Bandits (87.0) - A high-quality win over Dunedin and roughly expected performance in the other games should mean that we're in good position to see the Bandits repeat their annual dive to miss the playoffs, despite easily having the talent for a spot. OK, just kidding, folks. Maybe.
9. Coney Island Warriors (85.5) - The Chenabogs loss hurts, but otherwise they still have lots of tiebreaker games to get them back into the top 8. No idea what happened Week 1, though.
10. Cimmerian Barbarians (78.9) - After a playoff visit last season, the Barbarians have come out ice-cold, complete with embarassment last week at the hands of the Knightmares. Fortunately, only the loss to the Chenabogs is likely to matter in the long term, so they have plenty of chance to turn things around.
11. Redscape Diplomats (78.1) - I don't know what you guys did to the schedule gods to make them so determined to kill your morale each season before you play all your really important games, but you better be getting some voodoo to fix it somehow. Alchemy, Knightmares, Bandits, Fuego, Horsemen looks a lot like an 0-5 stretch (they've already dropped the first of those) and then you get Mauna Kea shortly afterwards, who might normally be beatable, but probably not after you've lost 20 morale points. Sorry, guys.
12. Uluru Rockies (75.9) - A nice win over rival Redscape, followed up by 3 pretty substantial disappointments leave Uluru fairly low in the rankings for now. At least they get the Sand Gnats to cheer them up.
13. Tasmanian Devils (71.2) - I'm not sure what to think of this team. They seem to play a bunch of close losses to teams that theoretically outclass them, which suggests they have good plans and builds - and then the Sand Gnats give 'em all they can handle. I'm not ready to say they can't be a playoff team yet, but I need more evidence either way.
14. Tasmania Sand Gnats (70.0) - Well, with Brisbane and Los Cabolo around, there's always next season. Getting edged by the Devils hurts bad, and unless Redscape's morale drops too low, the two gutted teams may be their best shot.
The Los Cabolo Sharks and Brisbane Brown Bears are unranked due to incomplete rosters.
