Good evening, everyone! I swear, the playoffs are close, I can almost taste them. Just 4 games left in this regular season, and things are as jumbled as ever in the playoff race. Still 3 teams dead-even at the top of our standings, as Tonga fell in a heartbreaker to 4th this week. 4th-7th is pretty well-defined, surprisingly, for this point in the season. However, the calamity brewing for the 8th seed more than makes up for that: FOUR teams at 5-7, and Redscape dangling around at 4-8. What an interesting stretch run we have, and I personally wouldn't have it any other way. Without further ado, let's get to these rankings!
Games left: 4
Z: clinched home-field throughout the playoffs
Y: clinched 1st-round home playoff game
X: clinched playoff birth
Standings:
1-X: Bikini Atoll Mushroom Clouds, 11-1
2-X: Christchurch Knightmares, 11-1
3-X: Dunedin Wolverines, 11-1
4-X: Tonga Thunderbirds, 10-2
5-X. The Four Horsemen, 9-3
6. El Fuego, 8-4
7. Uluru Rockies, 7-5
8. Cimmerian Barbarians, 5-7
9. Chinese Bandits, 5-7
10. Coney Island Warriors, 5-7
11. Mauna Kea Chenabogs, 5-7
12. Redscape Diplomats, 4-8
Team scenarios:
1. Bikini Atoll Mushroom Clouds: 1st, 11-1
Great teams are great when they have to be, and Bikini Atoll was great in Week 12, holding off a feisty, upset-minded Tonga team 31-27. That was the Shrooms' toughest test for the remainder of the regular season, as the remaining schedule looks much more favorable. Next, Bikini Atoll travels to FPQA, a game that's pretty close to a near-lock. Want a game that's even closer to a near-lock? Look no farther in Week 14 as Bikini Atoll gets relegation-bound Asau at home. After that, Bikini Atoll travels to playoff-contender Mauna Kea for a game that the Shrooms shouldn't have too many concerns about. However, the Alpha draw is an interesting one, against a very solid Teeth Smashers squad; this game favors the Shrooms, but you can bet there's a lot of Christchurch fans hoping for a not-unforeseeable upset. If all goes according to plan, the Shrooms will lock up the #1-seed in Zeta due to their 6-point victory over Christchurch.
Predicted finish: 15-1, 1st
2. Christchurch Knightmares: 2nd, 11-1
Whew, that 27-24 win was a bit closer than the Knightmares would like to see! Regardless, a win's a win at this stage, and Christchurch won't mind seeing the "W". Next, the Knightmared travel to El Fuego for a game that leans slightly toward Christchurch (that is, if they can avoid a performance like last week). The following Knightmares game is at home against Tasmania, a near-lock. Week 15 sees Christchurch travel to Coney Island for a battle that should see the Knightmares be on top. They get a fairly stiff Alpha draw against Alice Springs, but I think Christchurch has a bit too much talent and depth. The Knightmares will still likely lock up 2 rounds of home playoff games, but oh, what could have been with a Tonga win last week!
Predicted finish: 15-1, 2nd
3. Dunedin Wolverines: 3rd, 11-1
Dunedin took care of business, putting up 51 on the Barbarians. In this week's "Game of the Week", they make a trip to the islands to take on arch-competitor Tonga; while Dunedin is a 6-point favorite, I'm calling a Tonga upset due to the roster advantage Tonga has. Never fear, because the Wolverines will be rewarded by a game against FPQA to prime their playoff engines. Week 15 sees Dunedin landing at Asau, and this one also is a near-lock. The Alpha draw for the Wolverines is a difficult one (seems to be a trend in the top 3), as they go to Sydney to face a solid Sea Dragons squad; this game favors Sydney due to some key mismatches, but if the Wolverine gameplanning is spot-on, this might have upset potential. However, this game won't mean a lick in the playoff standings if the Wolverines take care of business in Week 13.
Predicted finish: 13-3, 4th
4. Tonga Thunderbirds: 10-2, 4th
"Sweet dreams and flying machines in pieces on the ground": that pretty much explained the Thunderbirds' mood after getting their hearts ripped out on the Atoll, 31-27. Two home playoff games are all but out of the cards now. However, Tonga must keep the pedal down, as Dunedin pays a visit this week; Dunedin is the 6-point favorite, but Tonga's roster has a distinct advantage: I will pick Tonga, but this one's a nail-biter, folks! Tonga faces yet ANOTHER stiff test at The Horsemen in Week 14; Tonga should be favored here, again, by the matchups, but The Horsemen have quite the talented squad themselves. The road after that eases a bit, as the Thunderbirds have Uluru at home; this favors Tonga, but never rule out a desperate team in a playoff chase. The Alpha Draw is rather sweet for the Thunderbirds, who see Gainesville, pretty much a near-lock. Win 1 of the next 2, and receive a home playoff game; lose them both, and be 5th: it's that simple.
Predicted finish: 14-2, 3rd
5. The Four Horsemen: 9-3, 5th
The Horsemen push the winning streak to five with a closer-than-expected 24-16 over Coney Island. This week, the Horsemen have a game at Cimmeria which should really favor the surging Horsemen. In Week 14, the Horsemen have a stiff test against Tonga; the matchup favors Tonga, but if Tonga loses, we have a matchup of teams who would be going in opposite directions, and that makes it all the more enticing. The Horsemen close out their Zeta schedule against FPQA, which should give them no worries at all. The Alpha game against South Austrailian is an interesting draw, and it should favor The Horsemen; however, this one has the potential to be a tight one, so stay tuned. I personally feel that this game will be closer than most predict. I see a 3-1 finish, good enough for 5th. But they've not done too badly for themselves coming from 5th before!
Predicted finish: 12-4, 5th
6. El Fuego: 8-4, 6th
Fuego continued its winning ways this past week with a convincing 38-0 shutout of Dirty South. This upcoming week against Christchurch is compelling; of course, the impartial observer has to favor Christchurch (and I do), but I'm not totally discounting an upset here. The following week, Fuego travels to Redscape for a game, and you'd have to believe Fuego'd take care of business there. In Week 15, Fuego closes it's Zeta slate against Chinese; on paper, I'd have to choose Fuego, but the Chinese have a ton of talent (and a coaching staff that nearly popped Christchurch last week). The Alpha game has Fuego at home against Manilla at home, and Fuego should win going away. Likewise, I see a 3-1 run to close out the schedule, but that's dependent upon very solid games from Fuego!
Predicted finish: 11-5, 6th
7. Uluru Rockies: 7th, 7-5
I'm glad to see you in this year's playoff picture, too, and with a 2-game cushion on that ridiculous fray for 8th, you'll be here for some time. A 30-16 win over Tasmania is just the tonic the Rockies needed for this stretch run. However, the next week, they have a game at Coney Island, which could be BIG for Uluru's playoff future; this game is just about a virtual toss-up, but I'm inclined to give it to a scrappy Coney Island squad based on advantages in blocking and rush defense. On the opposite side, the Rockies have another HUGE game against Cimmerian in Week 14; however, I believe this one will favor the Rockies due to some roster advantages there (and it better, if they want to salvage a .500 season and ride into the playoffs). The last Zeta game is at Tonga, and I just can't see Uluru pulling that one out. How unlucky can Uluru get, as they get a Molokai team who's just been demolishing everything in their paths; sadly, I think this'll include the Rockies, too. 1-3 looks like the finish here; however, with the middle of the conference as soft as it is, I think that's good enough for a playoff spot.
Predicted finish: 8-8, 7th
8. Cimmerian Barbarians: 8th, 5-7
The Week 12 game of "musical chairs" has finished, and look who's in the playoff spot right now! That's no thanks to Dunedin, who just tattooed them 51-21 last week. This week, Cimmerian hosts The Horsemen in a game that the Barbarians just can't be favored to win. The following game could very well make or break the Barbarians' season as they travel to Uluru, but I have to pick Uluru to win here; nevertheless, an upset of the Rockies could have the Barbarians looking at 8-8, while a loss would be crippling to their playoff hopes. In Week 15, Cimmerian finishes their Zeta schedule against Dirty South, a game that's as close to a near-lock as possible. In the Zeta draw, Cimmerian gets some great fortune by playing host to 0-11 Origrammar, which is a 2nd-straight near-lock. 8-8 will get Cimmerian to the playoffs (8th, behind Coney Island and ahead of Uluru due to the head-to-head tiebreakers); 7-9 (10th, thanks to the Chinese Week 2 loss) just flat out won't. The Uluru game is HUGE.
Predicted finish: 7-9, 9th
9. Chinese Bandits: 9th, 5-7
Boy, a win against Christchurch would've been HUGE to the playoff hopes of the Bandits; that 27-24 loss has to be a shot to the morale. Cheer up, though: the next game is against Redscape, and the Bandits have a very solid roster advantage here. In Week 14, Chinese rides into Mauna Kea for a big face-off, where they again should be favored to win. The next week features a BIG game at Fuego, where the Chinese can't be favored; however, an upset here may very well vault them into the playoffs. The Bandits' Alpha game sees them going to a very solid Easter Island squad, and I think Easter Island has a leg up on the Chinese here. A 6-point win over Coney Island helps, but the 11-point loss to Cimmerian hurts equally as bad. I think the key to a Chinese playoff birth lies against El Fuego, and that's not a great thing.
Predicted finish: 7-9, 10th
10. Coney Island Warriors: 10th, 5-7
Even though Coney Island put up a very spirited fight against the Horsemen, they fell agonizingly short, 24-16; the loss drops them another spot down the rankings due to the tangled web of tiebreakers in play now. However, the remaining schedule's actually fairly manageable. This week, the Warriors go to Uluru for a HUGE battle with a lot of playoff implications; Coney Island has some tactical advantages over Uluru, and they desperately need a win to stay alive in the playoff race. In Week 14, the Warriors travel to Dirty South to play a game that shouldn't even have Coney Island breathing too heavy. After that, the Warriors finish their Zeta slate against Christchurch, and this looks fairly bad for Coney Island. However, the all-important Alpha draw was very sweet to the Warriors, as they face a 1-10 Somoa squad in a game that's right up Coney Island's alley. I cannot understate the importance of the Coney Island-Uluru for the Warriors' playoff hopes. A loss drops them too far down to foreseeably recover; a win will probably have these "Cardiac Kids" stopping our hearts again.
Predicted finish: 8-8, 8th
11. Mauna Kea Chenabogs: 11th, 5-7
Well, Mauna Kea emerged victorious in the "4-7 Bowl", and they've been handsomely rewarded for their efforts by sealing up a statistical tie for 8th at the moment; the crazy thing is, their schedule is probably one of the more laxed ones coming down the stretch! This week, Mauna Kea plays Asau at home, and the Chenabogs shouldn't have too many worries about this one. The next game is at Chinese, and the Bandits have the edge; however, I'm not going to count a Chenabog upset out just yet, as they should be riding a 3-game winning streak at the time. The Zeta finale is against a very dangerous Bikini Atoll team at home, and I expect the Shrooms to walk away with this one. However, the Alpha draw is pretty favorable, as the Chenabogs travel to play a 3-10 Vanuatu squad, and Mauna Kea will definitely be favored. The 4-point loss to Cimmerian earlier this season is crushing with these playoff standings as they are. The crazy thing is, an upset of Chinese would get them IN. Their upset of projected #8-seed Coney Island makes this a realistic possibility. However, there are easier things to do in this conference than beat the Chinese.
Predicted finish: 7-9, 11th
12. Redscape Diplomats: 12th, 4-8
I seriously considered dropping Redscape from the rankings this week, and then I thought: "wait, they're just 1 game, statistically, out of 8th". Even though they dropped a hard-fought game to Mauna Kea 26-17, here the Diplomats are for another week; however, I don't think they'll be around much longer. This week, Redscape goes to the Chinese, and I think the Bandits just have far too much firepower for the Diplomats to cope with. The following week, the Diplomats are home against Fuego, where again, I just can't see a Redscape victory. In Week 15, the Diplomats go to Tasmania in the Zeta finale, where I think they may very well take one from the Gnats. As part of an exclusive two-week vacation package, the Diplomats face another Tasmania in the Alpha draw; however, I don't project them to win due to a significant talent mismatch. They'd have to win out to make the playoffs, and it appears that the opposite might happen, if the Diplomats aren't careful.
Predicted finish: 5-11, 12th
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As always, I think everyone kindly for your compliments; it really does mean a lot to me. I apologize, but I won't be able to get an Alpha edition out, at least this week; law school's a killer, man. Again, I certainly mean no disrespect to any team; I just call them as I see them unfolding. Good luck in Week 13, everyone, and I'll be back for a new batch next week!
Games left: 4
Z: clinched home-field throughout the playoffs
Y: clinched 1st-round home playoff game
X: clinched playoff birth
Standings:
1-X: Bikini Atoll Mushroom Clouds, 11-1
2-X: Christchurch Knightmares, 11-1
3-X: Dunedin Wolverines, 11-1
4-X: Tonga Thunderbirds, 10-2
5-X. The Four Horsemen, 9-3
6. El Fuego, 8-4
7. Uluru Rockies, 7-5
8. Cimmerian Barbarians, 5-7
9. Chinese Bandits, 5-7
10. Coney Island Warriors, 5-7
11. Mauna Kea Chenabogs, 5-7
12. Redscape Diplomats, 4-8
Team scenarios:
1. Bikini Atoll Mushroom Clouds: 1st, 11-1
Great teams are great when they have to be, and Bikini Atoll was great in Week 12, holding off a feisty, upset-minded Tonga team 31-27. That was the Shrooms' toughest test for the remainder of the regular season, as the remaining schedule looks much more favorable. Next, Bikini Atoll travels to FPQA, a game that's pretty close to a near-lock. Want a game that's even closer to a near-lock? Look no farther in Week 14 as Bikini Atoll gets relegation-bound Asau at home. After that, Bikini Atoll travels to playoff-contender Mauna Kea for a game that the Shrooms shouldn't have too many concerns about. However, the Alpha draw is an interesting one, against a very solid Teeth Smashers squad; this game favors the Shrooms, but you can bet there's a lot of Christchurch fans hoping for a not-unforeseeable upset. If all goes according to plan, the Shrooms will lock up the #1-seed in Zeta due to their 6-point victory over Christchurch.
Predicted finish: 15-1, 1st
2. Christchurch Knightmares: 2nd, 11-1
Whew, that 27-24 win was a bit closer than the Knightmares would like to see! Regardless, a win's a win at this stage, and Christchurch won't mind seeing the "W". Next, the Knightmared travel to El Fuego for a game that leans slightly toward Christchurch (that is, if they can avoid a performance like last week). The following Knightmares game is at home against Tasmania, a near-lock. Week 15 sees Christchurch travel to Coney Island for a battle that should see the Knightmares be on top. They get a fairly stiff Alpha draw against Alice Springs, but I think Christchurch has a bit too much talent and depth. The Knightmares will still likely lock up 2 rounds of home playoff games, but oh, what could have been with a Tonga win last week!
Predicted finish: 15-1, 2nd
3. Dunedin Wolverines: 3rd, 11-1
Dunedin took care of business, putting up 51 on the Barbarians. In this week's "Game of the Week", they make a trip to the islands to take on arch-competitor Tonga; while Dunedin is a 6-point favorite, I'm calling a Tonga upset due to the roster advantage Tonga has. Never fear, because the Wolverines will be rewarded by a game against FPQA to prime their playoff engines. Week 15 sees Dunedin landing at Asau, and this one also is a near-lock. The Alpha draw for the Wolverines is a difficult one (seems to be a trend in the top 3), as they go to Sydney to face a solid Sea Dragons squad; this game favors Sydney due to some key mismatches, but if the Wolverine gameplanning is spot-on, this might have upset potential. However, this game won't mean a lick in the playoff standings if the Wolverines take care of business in Week 13.
Predicted finish: 13-3, 4th
4. Tonga Thunderbirds: 10-2, 4th
"Sweet dreams and flying machines in pieces on the ground": that pretty much explained the Thunderbirds' mood after getting their hearts ripped out on the Atoll, 31-27. Two home playoff games are all but out of the cards now. However, Tonga must keep the pedal down, as Dunedin pays a visit this week; Dunedin is the 6-point favorite, but Tonga's roster has a distinct advantage: I will pick Tonga, but this one's a nail-biter, folks! Tonga faces yet ANOTHER stiff test at The Horsemen in Week 14; Tonga should be favored here, again, by the matchups, but The Horsemen have quite the talented squad themselves. The road after that eases a bit, as the Thunderbirds have Uluru at home; this favors Tonga, but never rule out a desperate team in a playoff chase. The Alpha Draw is rather sweet for the Thunderbirds, who see Gainesville, pretty much a near-lock. Win 1 of the next 2, and receive a home playoff game; lose them both, and be 5th: it's that simple.
Predicted finish: 14-2, 3rd
5. The Four Horsemen: 9-3, 5th
The Horsemen push the winning streak to five with a closer-than-expected 24-16 over Coney Island. This week, the Horsemen have a game at Cimmeria which should really favor the surging Horsemen. In Week 14, the Horsemen have a stiff test against Tonga; the matchup favors Tonga, but if Tonga loses, we have a matchup of teams who would be going in opposite directions, and that makes it all the more enticing. The Horsemen close out their Zeta schedule against FPQA, which should give them no worries at all. The Alpha game against South Austrailian is an interesting draw, and it should favor The Horsemen; however, this one has the potential to be a tight one, so stay tuned. I personally feel that this game will be closer than most predict. I see a 3-1 finish, good enough for 5th. But they've not done too badly for themselves coming from 5th before!
Predicted finish: 12-4, 5th
6. El Fuego: 8-4, 6th
Fuego continued its winning ways this past week with a convincing 38-0 shutout of Dirty South. This upcoming week against Christchurch is compelling; of course, the impartial observer has to favor Christchurch (and I do), but I'm not totally discounting an upset here. The following week, Fuego travels to Redscape for a game, and you'd have to believe Fuego'd take care of business there. In Week 15, Fuego closes it's Zeta slate against Chinese; on paper, I'd have to choose Fuego, but the Chinese have a ton of talent (and a coaching staff that nearly popped Christchurch last week). The Alpha game has Fuego at home against Manilla at home, and Fuego should win going away. Likewise, I see a 3-1 run to close out the schedule, but that's dependent upon very solid games from Fuego!
Predicted finish: 11-5, 6th
7. Uluru Rockies: 7th, 7-5
I'm glad to see you in this year's playoff picture, too, and with a 2-game cushion on that ridiculous fray for 8th, you'll be here for some time. A 30-16 win over Tasmania is just the tonic the Rockies needed for this stretch run. However, the next week, they have a game at Coney Island, which could be BIG for Uluru's playoff future; this game is just about a virtual toss-up, but I'm inclined to give it to a scrappy Coney Island squad based on advantages in blocking and rush defense. On the opposite side, the Rockies have another HUGE game against Cimmerian in Week 14; however, I believe this one will favor the Rockies due to some roster advantages there (and it better, if they want to salvage a .500 season and ride into the playoffs). The last Zeta game is at Tonga, and I just can't see Uluru pulling that one out. How unlucky can Uluru get, as they get a Molokai team who's just been demolishing everything in their paths; sadly, I think this'll include the Rockies, too. 1-3 looks like the finish here; however, with the middle of the conference as soft as it is, I think that's good enough for a playoff spot.
Predicted finish: 8-8, 7th
8. Cimmerian Barbarians: 8th, 5-7
The Week 12 game of "musical chairs" has finished, and look who's in the playoff spot right now! That's no thanks to Dunedin, who just tattooed them 51-21 last week. This week, Cimmerian hosts The Horsemen in a game that the Barbarians just can't be favored to win. The following game could very well make or break the Barbarians' season as they travel to Uluru, but I have to pick Uluru to win here; nevertheless, an upset of the Rockies could have the Barbarians looking at 8-8, while a loss would be crippling to their playoff hopes. In Week 15, Cimmerian finishes their Zeta schedule against Dirty South, a game that's as close to a near-lock as possible. In the Zeta draw, Cimmerian gets some great fortune by playing host to 0-11 Origrammar, which is a 2nd-straight near-lock. 8-8 will get Cimmerian to the playoffs (8th, behind Coney Island and ahead of Uluru due to the head-to-head tiebreakers); 7-9 (10th, thanks to the Chinese Week 2 loss) just flat out won't. The Uluru game is HUGE.
Predicted finish: 7-9, 9th
9. Chinese Bandits: 9th, 5-7
Boy, a win against Christchurch would've been HUGE to the playoff hopes of the Bandits; that 27-24 loss has to be a shot to the morale. Cheer up, though: the next game is against Redscape, and the Bandits have a very solid roster advantage here. In Week 14, Chinese rides into Mauna Kea for a big face-off, where they again should be favored to win. The next week features a BIG game at Fuego, where the Chinese can't be favored; however, an upset here may very well vault them into the playoffs. The Bandits' Alpha game sees them going to a very solid Easter Island squad, and I think Easter Island has a leg up on the Chinese here. A 6-point win over Coney Island helps, but the 11-point loss to Cimmerian hurts equally as bad. I think the key to a Chinese playoff birth lies against El Fuego, and that's not a great thing.
Predicted finish: 7-9, 10th
10. Coney Island Warriors: 10th, 5-7
Even though Coney Island put up a very spirited fight against the Horsemen, they fell agonizingly short, 24-16; the loss drops them another spot down the rankings due to the tangled web of tiebreakers in play now. However, the remaining schedule's actually fairly manageable. This week, the Warriors go to Uluru for a HUGE battle with a lot of playoff implications; Coney Island has some tactical advantages over Uluru, and they desperately need a win to stay alive in the playoff race. In Week 14, the Warriors travel to Dirty South to play a game that shouldn't even have Coney Island breathing too heavy. After that, the Warriors finish their Zeta slate against Christchurch, and this looks fairly bad for Coney Island. However, the all-important Alpha draw was very sweet to the Warriors, as they face a 1-10 Somoa squad in a game that's right up Coney Island's alley. I cannot understate the importance of the Coney Island-Uluru for the Warriors' playoff hopes. A loss drops them too far down to foreseeably recover; a win will probably have these "Cardiac Kids" stopping our hearts again.
Predicted finish: 8-8, 8th
11. Mauna Kea Chenabogs: 11th, 5-7
Well, Mauna Kea emerged victorious in the "4-7 Bowl", and they've been handsomely rewarded for their efforts by sealing up a statistical tie for 8th at the moment; the crazy thing is, their schedule is probably one of the more laxed ones coming down the stretch! This week, Mauna Kea plays Asau at home, and the Chenabogs shouldn't have too many worries about this one. The next game is at Chinese, and the Bandits have the edge; however, I'm not going to count a Chenabog upset out just yet, as they should be riding a 3-game winning streak at the time. The Zeta finale is against a very dangerous Bikini Atoll team at home, and I expect the Shrooms to walk away with this one. However, the Alpha draw is pretty favorable, as the Chenabogs travel to play a 3-10 Vanuatu squad, and Mauna Kea will definitely be favored. The 4-point loss to Cimmerian earlier this season is crushing with these playoff standings as they are. The crazy thing is, an upset of Chinese would get them IN. Their upset of projected #8-seed Coney Island makes this a realistic possibility. However, there are easier things to do in this conference than beat the Chinese.
Predicted finish: 7-9, 11th
12. Redscape Diplomats: 12th, 4-8
I seriously considered dropping Redscape from the rankings this week, and then I thought: "wait, they're just 1 game, statistically, out of 8th". Even though they dropped a hard-fought game to Mauna Kea 26-17, here the Diplomats are for another week; however, I don't think they'll be around much longer. This week, Redscape goes to the Chinese, and I think the Bandits just have far too much firepower for the Diplomats to cope with. The following week, the Diplomats are home against Fuego, where again, I just can't see a Redscape victory. In Week 15, the Diplomats go to Tasmania in the Zeta finale, where I think they may very well take one from the Gnats. As part of an exclusive two-week vacation package, the Diplomats face another Tasmania in the Alpha draw; however, I don't project them to win due to a significant talent mismatch. They'd have to win out to make the playoffs, and it appears that the opposite might happen, if the Diplomats aren't careful.
Predicted finish: 5-11, 12th
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As always, I think everyone kindly for your compliments; it really does mean a lot to me. I apologize, but I won't be able to get an Alpha edition out, at least this week; law school's a killer, man. Again, I certainly mean no disrespect to any team; I just call them as I see them unfolding. Good luck in Week 13, everyone, and I'll be back for a new batch next week!
