Calculated Elo Ratings for the Oceania Pro League (OPL) post wk 4 games...
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 88.43
Tonga Ikale Tahi Alpha 77.32
IC Incinerators Zeta 71.78
New England Burning Pride Alpha 68.03
Brisbane Heat Zeta 63.71
Vanuatu Kava Sharks Zeta 46.41
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 43.26
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 40.15
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 38.51
Co-op City Blitz Zeta 36.96
FFLW Caninites Zeta 36.63
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 36.31
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 35.91
Canberra Strike Alpha 34.92
East Coast Tide Alpha 32.46
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 29.81
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 19.57
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 12.87
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 7.05
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 6.14
Big Island Growas Zeta -18.23
Perth Scorpions Alpha -22.11
Brisbane Gods Zeta -24.74
Auckland Flames Alpha -25.30
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta -55.27
Saipan Fighters Zeta -63.63
Purdue Boilermakers Zeta -82.03
Jakarta Men O' War Zeta -84.51
Westpac Shellbacks Zeta -102.15
Aussie Cardinals Alpha -103.47
Green Bay WOODUHS Alpha -106.03
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha -138.80
-----------------------------------------------------------
Predicted Win Probabilities for wk 5 intraconference games based on Elo data (with team chem factor)...
Week 4 predictions: 11-5-0
Season 4 prediction totals: 45-17-2
IC Incinerators Zeta 0.713
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 0.706
FFLW Caninites Zeta 0.679
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 0.656
Auckland Flames Alpha 0.616
Co-op City Blitz Zeta 0.592
Canberra Strike Alpha 0.587
Tonga Ikale Tahi Alpha 0.563
Green Bay WOODUHS Alpha 0.556
New England Burning Pride Alpha 0.546
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 0.538
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 0.524
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta 0.523
Brisbane Heat Zeta 0.519
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 0.512
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 0.505
East Coast Tide Alpha 0.495
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 0.488
Vanuatu Kava Sharks Zeta 0.481
Saipan Fighters Zeta 0.477
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 0.476
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 0.462
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 0.454
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha 0.444
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 0.437
Perth Scorpions Alpha 0.413
Brisbane Gods Zeta 0.408
Aussie Cardinals Alpha 0.384
Big Island Growas Zeta 0.344
Jakarta Men O' War Zeta 0.321
Westpac Shellbacks Zeta 0.294
Purdue Boilermakers Zeta 0.287
-----------------------------------------------------------
Upcoming Games of the Week [game rating = combined team Elo ratings - ABS (team Elo rating difference)]:
Gold: Vanuatu Kava Sharks (3-1-0) at **Brisbane Heat (4-0-0) [game rating: 92.81]
Silver: Fiji Sea Turtles (3-1-0) at **New England Burning Pride (3-1-0) [game rating: 80.31]
Bronze: **Tonga Ikale Tahi (4-0-0) at West Scranton Invaders (3-1-0) [game rating: 77.03]
**Favored in Predicted Win Probability
-----------------------------------------------------------
Caveats: This data is based on a limited data set of 4 points(games). Data sets above 30 points are recommended for reliable trend/regression analysis.
Additionally, since no cross-conference/cross-league games have been played yet, the different conferences were combined assuming that both conferences had identical overall conference strength.
Notes: Elo "K value" = 20 (reg season 'friendly' matches) and starting Elo rating of zero for all teams starting at season's start. "Actual results" - Win=1, Tie=0.5, Loss=0
These ratings include a team chemistry factor for the team with higher chem [dr=square root(team chem diff)]. Additionally, winning margin is factored into the ratings. "N" is calculated as [(Abs game score difference)/7], and "G" is fixed and = [(11+N)/8].
NOT included in the ratings are schedule strength and home field advantage.
Please see http://www.eloratings.net/system.html for further base methodology information.
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 88.43
Tonga Ikale Tahi Alpha 77.32
IC Incinerators Zeta 71.78
New England Burning Pride Alpha 68.03
Brisbane Heat Zeta 63.71
Vanuatu Kava Sharks Zeta 46.41
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 43.26
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 40.15
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 38.51
Co-op City Blitz Zeta 36.96
FFLW Caninites Zeta 36.63
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 36.31
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 35.91
Canberra Strike Alpha 34.92
East Coast Tide Alpha 32.46
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 29.81
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 19.57
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 12.87
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 7.05
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 6.14
Big Island Growas Zeta -18.23
Perth Scorpions Alpha -22.11
Brisbane Gods Zeta -24.74
Auckland Flames Alpha -25.30
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta -55.27
Saipan Fighters Zeta -63.63
Purdue Boilermakers Zeta -82.03
Jakarta Men O' War Zeta -84.51
Westpac Shellbacks Zeta -102.15
Aussie Cardinals Alpha -103.47
Green Bay WOODUHS Alpha -106.03
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha -138.80
-----------------------------------------------------------
Predicted Win Probabilities for wk 5 intraconference games based on Elo data (with team chem factor)...
Week 4 predictions: 11-5-0
Season 4 prediction totals: 45-17-2
IC Incinerators Zeta 0.713
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 0.706
FFLW Caninites Zeta 0.679
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 0.656
Auckland Flames Alpha 0.616
Co-op City Blitz Zeta 0.592
Canberra Strike Alpha 0.587
Tonga Ikale Tahi Alpha 0.563
Green Bay WOODUHS Alpha 0.556
New England Burning Pride Alpha 0.546
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 0.538
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 0.524
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta 0.523
Brisbane Heat Zeta 0.519
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 0.512
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 0.505
East Coast Tide Alpha 0.495
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 0.488
Vanuatu Kava Sharks Zeta 0.481
Saipan Fighters Zeta 0.477
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 0.476
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 0.462
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 0.454
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha 0.444
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 0.437
Perth Scorpions Alpha 0.413
Brisbane Gods Zeta 0.408
Aussie Cardinals Alpha 0.384
Big Island Growas Zeta 0.344
Jakarta Men O' War Zeta 0.321
Westpac Shellbacks Zeta 0.294
Purdue Boilermakers Zeta 0.287
-----------------------------------------------------------
Upcoming Games of the Week [game rating = combined team Elo ratings - ABS (team Elo rating difference)]:
Gold: Vanuatu Kava Sharks (3-1-0) at **Brisbane Heat (4-0-0) [game rating: 92.81]
Silver: Fiji Sea Turtles (3-1-0) at **New England Burning Pride (3-1-0) [game rating: 80.31]
Bronze: **Tonga Ikale Tahi (4-0-0) at West Scranton Invaders (3-1-0) [game rating: 77.03]
**Favored in Predicted Win Probability
-----------------------------------------------------------
Caveats: This data is based on a limited data set of 4 points(games). Data sets above 30 points are recommended for reliable trend/regression analysis.
Additionally, since no cross-conference/cross-league games have been played yet, the different conferences were combined assuming that both conferences had identical overall conference strength.
Notes: Elo "K value" = 20 (reg season 'friendly' matches) and starting Elo rating of zero for all teams starting at season's start. "Actual results" - Win=1, Tie=0.5, Loss=0
These ratings include a team chemistry factor for the team with higher chem [dr=square root(team chem diff)]. Additionally, winning margin is factored into the ratings. "N" is calculated as [(Abs game score difference)/7], and "G" is fixed and = [(11+N)/8].
NOT included in the ratings are schedule strength and home field advantage.
Please see http://www.eloratings.net/system.html for further base methodology information.
