Calculated Elo Ratings for the Oceania Pro League (OPL) post wk 3 games...
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 67.16
IC Incinerators Zeta 59.31
Tonga Ikale Tahi Alpha 53.53
FFLW Caninites Zeta 51.19
Brisbane Heat Zeta 49.15
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 38.82
New England Burning Pride Alpha 37.82
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 29.03
Vanuatu Kava Sharks Zeta 28.94
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 25.51
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 23.99
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 23.87
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 22.36
Canberra Strike Alpha 20.38
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 19.53
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 19.15
East Coast Tide Alpha 18.47
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 16.59
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 10.57
Co-op City Blitz Zeta 9.57
Brisbane Gods Zeta -7.27
Perth Scorpions Alpha -8.12
Auckland Flames Alpha -10.76
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta -32.89
Big Island Growas Zeta -40.61
Saipan Fighters Zeta -49.68
The U Canes Zeta -54.64
Jakarta Men O' War Zeta -65.12
Aussie Cardinals Alpha -73.26
Westpac Shellbacks Zeta -80.88
Green Bay WOODUHS Alpha -86.71
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha -115.01
-----------------------------------------------------------
Predicted Win Probabilities for wk4 intraconference games based on Elo data (with team chem factor)...
Week 3 predictions (elo unpublished): 11 correct - 5 wrong - 0 tie
Season 4 prediction totals (elo's unpublished): 34-12-2
Tonga Ikale Tahi Alpha 0.731
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 0.709
New England Burning Pride Alpha 0.663
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 0.655
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 0.638
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 0.613
Co-op City Blitz Zeta 0.603
Vanuatu Kava Sharks Zeta 0.559
Canberra Strike Alpha 0.553
IC Incinerators Zeta 0.552
East Coast Tide Alpha 0.545
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 0.533
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 0.516
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 0.514
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta 0.514
FFLW Caninites Zeta 0.510
Brisbane Heat Zeta 0.490
Big Island Growas Zeta 0.486
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 0.486
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 0.484
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 0.467
Perth Scorpions Alpha 0.455
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 0.448
Auckland Flames Alpha 0.447
Brisbane Gods Zeta 0.441
The U Canes Zeta 0.397
Saipan Fighters Zeta 0.387
Jakarta Men O' War Zeta 0.362
Green Bay WOODUHS Alpha 0.345
Aussie Cardinals Alpha 0.337
Westpac Shellbacks Zeta 0.291
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha 0.269
-----------------------------------------------------------
Upcoming Games of the Week [game rating = combined team Elo ratings - ABS (team Elo rating difference)]:
Gold: Brisbane Heat (3-0-0) at **FFLW Caninites (3-0-0) [Game rating: 98.3]
Silver: **Emerald City Flying Monkeys (2-1-0) at Fiji Sea Turtles (2-1-0) [Game rating: 47.99]
Bronze: Tongan Crimson Auha (2-1-0) at **IC Incinerators (3-0-0) [Game rating: 39.06]
**Favored in Predicted Win Probability
-----------------------------------------------------------
Caveats: This data is based on a limited data set of 3 points(games). Data sets above 30 points are recommended for reliable trend/regression analysis.
Additionally, since no cross-conference/cross-league games have been played yet, the different conferences were combined assuming that both conferences had identical overall conference strength.
Notes: Elo "K value" = 20 (reg season 'friendly' matches) and starting Elo rating of zero for all teams starting at season's start. "Actual results" - Win=1, Tie=0.5, Loss=0
These ratings include a team chemistry factor for the team with higher chem [dr=square root(team chem diff)]. Additionally, winning margin is factored into the ratings. "N" is calculated as [(Abs game score difference)/7], and "G" is fixed and = [(11+N)/8].
NOT included in the ratings are schedule strength and home field advantage.
Please see http://www.eloratings.net/system.html for further base methodology information.
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 67.16
IC Incinerators Zeta 59.31
Tonga Ikale Tahi Alpha 53.53
FFLW Caninites Zeta 51.19
Brisbane Heat Zeta 49.15
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 38.82
New England Burning Pride Alpha 37.82
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 29.03
Vanuatu Kava Sharks Zeta 28.94
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 25.51
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 23.99
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 23.87
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 22.36
Canberra Strike Alpha 20.38
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 19.53
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 19.15
East Coast Tide Alpha 18.47
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 16.59
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 10.57
Co-op City Blitz Zeta 9.57
Brisbane Gods Zeta -7.27
Perth Scorpions Alpha -8.12
Auckland Flames Alpha -10.76
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta -32.89
Big Island Growas Zeta -40.61
Saipan Fighters Zeta -49.68
The U Canes Zeta -54.64
Jakarta Men O' War Zeta -65.12
Aussie Cardinals Alpha -73.26
Westpac Shellbacks Zeta -80.88
Green Bay WOODUHS Alpha -86.71
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha -115.01
-----------------------------------------------------------
Predicted Win Probabilities for wk4 intraconference games based on Elo data (with team chem factor)...
Week 3 predictions (elo unpublished): 11 correct - 5 wrong - 0 tie
Season 4 prediction totals (elo's unpublished): 34-12-2
Tonga Ikale Tahi Alpha 0.731
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 0.709
New England Burning Pride Alpha 0.663
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 0.655
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 0.638
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 0.613
Co-op City Blitz Zeta 0.603
Vanuatu Kava Sharks Zeta 0.559
Canberra Strike Alpha 0.553
IC Incinerators Zeta 0.552
East Coast Tide Alpha 0.545
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 0.533
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 0.516
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 0.514
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta 0.514
FFLW Caninites Zeta 0.510
Brisbane Heat Zeta 0.490
Big Island Growas Zeta 0.486
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 0.486
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 0.484
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 0.467
Perth Scorpions Alpha 0.455
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 0.448
Auckland Flames Alpha 0.447
Brisbane Gods Zeta 0.441
The U Canes Zeta 0.397
Saipan Fighters Zeta 0.387
Jakarta Men O' War Zeta 0.362
Green Bay WOODUHS Alpha 0.345
Aussie Cardinals Alpha 0.337
Westpac Shellbacks Zeta 0.291
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha 0.269
-----------------------------------------------------------
Upcoming Games of the Week [game rating = combined team Elo ratings - ABS (team Elo rating difference)]:
Gold: Brisbane Heat (3-0-0) at **FFLW Caninites (3-0-0) [Game rating: 98.3]
Silver: **Emerald City Flying Monkeys (2-1-0) at Fiji Sea Turtles (2-1-0) [Game rating: 47.99]
Bronze: Tongan Crimson Auha (2-1-0) at **IC Incinerators (3-0-0) [Game rating: 39.06]
**Favored in Predicted Win Probability
-----------------------------------------------------------
Caveats: This data is based on a limited data set of 3 points(games). Data sets above 30 points are recommended for reliable trend/regression analysis.
Additionally, since no cross-conference/cross-league games have been played yet, the different conferences were combined assuming that both conferences had identical overall conference strength.
Notes: Elo "K value" = 20 (reg season 'friendly' matches) and starting Elo rating of zero for all teams starting at season's start. "Actual results" - Win=1, Tie=0.5, Loss=0
These ratings include a team chemistry factor for the team with higher chem [dr=square root(team chem diff)]. Additionally, winning margin is factored into the ratings. "N" is calculated as [(Abs game score difference)/7], and "G" is fixed and = [(11+N)/8].
NOT included in the ratings are schedule strength and home field advantage.
Please see http://www.eloratings.net/system.html for further base methodology information.
Last edited Aug 9, 2008 12:55:26
