Warrior General Games

Calculated Elo Ratings for the Oceania Pro League after wk 15 games...

FFLW Caninites Zeta 228.33
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 199.86
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 196.83
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 143.21
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 136.41
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 132.09
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 120.33
Brisbane Gods Zeta 103.85
New England Burning Pride Alpha 89.06
Canberra Strike Alpha 84.14
The U Canes Zeta 82.65
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 74.18
IC Incinerators Zeta 73.11
Las Vegas Outlaws Zeta 53.96
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 35.20
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 7.62
Aussie Cardinals Alpha 0.28
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha -1.07
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta -8.89
Big Island Growas Zeta -10.00
Tasmania Devils Alpha -10.49
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha -43.28
Perth Scorpions Alpha -93.79
Saipan Fighters Zeta -108.05
Co-op City Blitz Zeta -113.67
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta -124.81
Auckland Flames Alpha -153.79
Outback Astronauts Zeta -162.90
Speightstown Rum Runners Alpha -178.32
Bermuda Pirates Zeta -193.01
Hollywood Decepticons Alpha -260.25
Buen Retiro Longhorns Zeta -292.71

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Predicted Win Probabilities (prorated +53.33 elo for home team) for upcoming wk 16 interconference games based on Elo data...

Brantford Mustangs Alpha 0.819
Las Vegas Outlaws Zeta 0.818
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 0.818
FFLW Caninites Zeta 0.778
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 0.759
Aussie Cardinals Alpha 0.736
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 0.732
Perth Scorpions Alpha 0.706
The U Canes Zeta 0.688
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 0.627
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 0.608
Outback Astronauts Zeta 0.598
Brisbane Gods Zeta 0.597
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 0.578
Buen Retiro Longhorns Zeta 0.530
Canberra Strike Alpha 0.508
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 0.492
Hollywood Decepticons Alpha 0.470
IC Incinerators Zeta 0.422
New England Burning Pride Alpha 0.403
Speightstown Rum Runners Alpha 0.402
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 0.392
Saipan Fighters Zeta 0.373
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 0.312
Bermuda Pirates Zeta 0.294
Co-op City Blitz Zeta 0.268
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta 0.264
Big Island Growas Zeta 0.241
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha 0.222
Tasmania Devils Alpha 0.182
Auckland Flames Alpha 0.182
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 0.181


note: Teams > 0.640 predicted win probability can be said to be 'greatly favored' in predicted win probability.

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Upcoming Games of the Week [game rating = combined team Elo ratings - ABS (team Elo rating difference)]:


Newcastle Bearcats (12-3-0) at *Rawle Tech Titans (12-3-0) [game rating: 240.66]

New England Burning Pride (11-4-0) at *Brisbane Gods (11-4-0) [game rating: 178.12]

Tongan Crimson Auha (12-3-0) at *Canberra Strike (10-5-0) [game rating: 168.28]


* - Favored by predicted win probability
*** - Greatly favored by predicted win probability

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caveats: This data is based on a limited data set of 15 points(games). Data sets above 30 points are recommended for reliable trend/regression analysis.

Additionally, since no cross-conference/cross-league games have been played yet, the different conferences were combined assuming that both conferences had identical overall conference strength.

notes: Elo "K value" = 20 (reg season 'friendly' matches) and starting Elo rating of zero for all teams starting at season's start. "Actual results" - Win=1, Tie=0.5, Loss=0

These ratings include home field advantage (dr=100 for Elo calc, prorated (3.33*week of season) for predicted win probabilities). Additionally, winning margin is factored into the ratings. "N" is calculated as [(Abs game score difference)/7], and "G" is fixed and = [(11+N)/8].

Please see http://www.eloratings.net/system.html for further methodology information.

NOT included in the ratings are team chemistry and schedule strength.

Nice work.

Those 3 games will make a huge difference in the playoff seedings.

Yes! Back to 13 (my lucky number) in time for the start of playoffs.

I know I have to take care of business for it to happen, but I want a re-match with Rawle in round 1 for another shot at our first win against them.

Originally posted by MC_Hammer
Yes! Back to 13 (my lucky number) in time for the start of playoffs.

I know I have to take care of business for it to happen, but I want a re-match with Rawle in round 1 for another shot at our first win against them.

No no no once a year is enough!! We've had an impossible end of the year schedule including this weeks game against the Bearcats. The schedule maker hates us.

Well, you are one of the few still left from S1 that we have yet to beat in Zeta, so you have a huge target on your chest as far as IC is concerned. (Vegas and FFLivewire are on notice too )
And while it is true you have had a brutal end of season schedule, ours hasn't been a cakewalk either.