Warrior General Games

Calculated Elo Ratings for the Oceania Pro League after wk 14 games...

FFLivewire Cans Zeta 219.64
FFLW Caninites Zeta 205.52
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 194.27
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 133.55
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 124.72
New England Burning Pride Alpha 110.86
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 110.74
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 98.83
Brisbane Gods Zeta 95.79
IC Incinerators Zeta 91.60
The U Canes Zeta 77.93
Las Vegas Outlaws Zeta 75.31
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 69.04
Canberra Strike Alpha 62.34
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 40.79
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 28.84
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 10.92
Big Island Growas Zeta -1.94
Aussie Cardinals Alpha -11.71
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha -21.77
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta -27.51
Tasmania Devils Alpha -31.71
Saipan Fighters Zeta -89.43
Perth Scorpions Alpha -102.06
Outback Astronauts Zeta -142.94
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta -144.77
Kiribati Blitz Zeta -146.24
Auckland Flames Alpha -148.65
Speightstown Rum Runners Alpha -170.06
Bermuda Pirates Zeta -188.30
Hollywood Decepticons Alpha -257.39
Buen Retiro Longhorns Zeta -260.13

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Predicted Win Probabilities (prorated +50.00 elo for home team) for upcoming wk 15 intraconference games based on Elo data...

Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 0.927
The U Canes Zeta 0.861
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 0.824
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 0.763
Brisbane Gods Zeta 0.701
Perth Scorpions Alpha 0.664
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 0.654
New England Burning Pride Alpha 0.638
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 0.600
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 0.591
Kiribati Blitz Zeta 0.591
Outback Astronauts Zeta 0.574
Aussie Cardinals Alpha 0.539
IC Incinerators Zeta 0.524
Las Vegas Outlaws Zeta 0.521
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 0.517
Saipan Fighters Zeta 0.483
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 0.479
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 0.476
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 0.461
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta 0.426
Buen Retiro Longhorns Zeta 0.409
FFLW Caninites Zeta 0.409
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha 0.400
Canberra Strike Alpha 0.362
Tasmania Devils Alpha 0.346
Speightstown Rum Runners Alpha 0.336
Big Island Growas Zeta 0.299
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 0.237
Auckland Flames Alpha 0.176
Bermuda Pirates Zeta 0.139
Hollywood Decepticons Alpha 0.073


note: Teams > 0.640 predicted win probability can be said to be 'greatly favored' in predicted win probability.

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Upcoming Games of the Week [game rating = combined team Elo ratings - ABS (team Elo rating difference)]:


FFLW Caninites (14-0-0) at *FFLivewire Cans (13-1-0) [game rating = 411.04]

Rawle Tech Titans (11-3-0) at *IC Incinerators (10-4-0) [game rating = 183.20]

Canberra Strike (9-5-0) at *New England Burning Pride (11-3-0) [game rating = 124.68]


* - Favored by redicted win probability
*** - Greatly favored by predicted win probability

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caveats: This data is based on a limited data set of 14 points(games). Data sets above 30 points are recommended for reliable trend/regression analysis.

Additionally, since no cross-conference/cross-league games have been played yet, the different conferences were combined assuming that both conferences had identical overall conference strength.

notes: Elo "K value" = 20 (reg season 'friendly' matches) and starting Elo rating of zero for all teams starting at season's start. "Actual results" - Win=1, Tie=0.5, Loss=0

These ratings include home field advantage (dr=100 for Elo calc, prorated (3.33*week of season) for predicted win probabilities). Additionally, winning margin is factored into the ratings. "N" is calculated as [(Abs game score difference)/7], and "G" is fixed and = [(11+N)/8].

Please see http://www.eloratings.net/system.html for further methodology information.

NOT included in the ratings are team chemistry and schedule strength.

yay no more GOTW! Man I can't wait for the FFLW game. A better rivalry than the rather unsuccessful Brisbane rivalry

Originally posted by bigpimpin123
yay no more GOTW! Man I can't wait for the FFLW game. A better rivalry than the rather unsuccessful Brisbane rivalry

That's because they're in the same conference.

Originally posted by HaplosDog
Originally posted by bigpimpin123

yay no more GOTW! Man I can't wait for the FFLW game. A better rivalry than the rather unsuccessful Brisbane rivalry

That's because they're in the same conference.

Unfortunately.

Caninites are #2 in all the rankings this week. At least we dont have the #1 jinx.

I think this is the highest Rawle Tech has been. Hopefully we can live up to it.

Originally posted by wombat killer
I think this is the highest Rawle Tech has been. Hopefully we can live up to it.

I am hoping so too, for another day.

I can't believe we are favored to win this one the way you guys have been playing, but I will take the win if that is how the cards fall.

Ow my liver

Originally posted by steelerblitz
Originally posted by HaplosDog

Originally posted by bigpimpin123


yay no more GOTW! Man I can't wait for the FFLW game. A better rivalry than the rather unsuccessful Brisbane rivalry

That's because they're in the same conference.

Unfortunately.

Caninites are #2 in all the rankings this week. At least we dont have the #1 jinx.




Say what you want, but Lukin's projected score has you beating us by nine. Therefore, I pass all the pressure back on the Nites.

Has there ever been a game with a higher combined ELO than 411?

In Oceania Pro? I don't think so; that's gotta be the highest. Last year we played the Bandits late in the season when our teams had one loss between us, and we played some late-season games around week 14-15 against other one-loss teams like Canberra and Tongan (I think), but our ELOs were all in the mid-100s at the time, I think. Your combined ELOs blow those out of the water.

Originally posted by BradyFTW
In Oceania Pro? I don't think so; that's gotta be the highest. Last year we played the Bandits late in the season when our teams had one loss between us, and we played some late-season games around week 14-15 against other one-loss teams like Canberra and Tongan (I think), but our ELOs were all in the mid-100s at the time, I think. Your combined ELOs blow those out of the water.

It was a different system used last season too. Last year was a simpler Chess Elo system which just looked at wins/losses. This season I switched to a more complex Soccer Elo system (with winning margins and home field advantage included), so there was bound to be greater seperation between the top teams and the bottom teams.

Nevertheless, it's a good benchmark from here on out.


On a side note,
I still can't tell if there's a homefield advantage (maybe a minimal game stat bonus to home team??) given in GLB or not. I still use it in these ratings since it's in the Elo system I am emulating.

As of now, there are no home field advantage in GLB. Except for ticket sales.