Calculated Elo Ratings for the Oceania Pro League after wk 13 games...
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 202.40
FFLW Caninites Zeta 196.14
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 180.42
New England Burning Pride Alpha 124.70
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 121.84
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 118.80
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 114.91
Brisbane Gods Zeta 105.60
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 103.84
Las Vegas Outlaws Zeta 84.70
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 83.32
IC Incinerators Zeta 77.26
The U Canes Zeta 63.03
Canberra Strike Alpha 48.06
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 26.95
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 25.67
Big Island Growas Zeta 15.31
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 5.83
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta -12.61
Tasmania Devils Alpha -17.87
Aussie Cardinals Alpha -28.46
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha -37.04
Saipan Fighters Zeta -107.11
Perth Scorpions Alpha -119.93
Kiribati Blitz Zeta -128.56
Auckland Flames Alpha -130.77
Outback Astronauts Zeta -136.04
Speightstown Rum Runners Alpha -153.31
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta -156.60
Bermuda Pirates Zeta -173.96
Hollywood Decepticons Alpha -242.13
Buen Retiro Longhorns Zeta -248.30
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Predicted Win Probabilities (prorated +46.67 elo for home team) for upcoming wk 14 intraconference games based on Elo data...
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 0.839
IC Incinerators Zeta 0.764
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 0.718
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha 0.713
FFLW Caninites Zeta 0.713
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 0.705
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 0.692
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta 0.689
Aussie Cardinals Alpha 0.611
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 0.580
New England Burning Pride Alpha 0.573
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 0.566
Auckland Flames Alpha 0.551
The U Canes Zeta 0.542
Kiribati Blitz Zeta 0.536
Canberra Strike Alpha 0.516
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 0.484
Saipan Fighters Zeta 0.464
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 0.458
Perth Scorpions Alpha 0.449
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 0.434
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 0.427
Brisbane Gods Zeta 0.420
Speightstown Rum Runners Alpha 0.389
Buen Retiro Longhorns Zeta 0.311
Big Island Growas Zeta 0.308
Tasmania Devils Alpha 0.295
Las Vegas Outlaws Zeta 0.287
Hollywood Decepticons Alpha 0.287
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 0.282
Bermuda Pirates Zeta 0.236
Outback Astronauts Zeta 0.161
note: Teams > 0.640 predicted win probability can be said to be 'greatly favored' in predicted win probability.
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Upcoming Games of the Week [game rating = combined team Elo ratings - ABS (team Elo rating difference)]:
Brisbane Gods (10-3-0) at *Rawle Tech Titans (10-3-0) [game rating = 211.19]
Las Vegas Outlaws (9-4-0) at ***FFLW Caninites (13-0-0) [game rating = 169.39]
Emerald City Flying Monkeys (9-4-0) at *New England Burning Pride (11-2-0) [game rating = 96.13]
* - Favored by redicted win probability
*** - Greatly favored by predicted win probability
-----------------------------------------------------------
caveats: This data is based on a limited data set of 13 points(games). Data sets above 30 points are recommended for reliable trend/regression analysis.
Additionally, since no cross-conference/cross-league games have been played yet, the different conferences were combined assuming that both conferences had identical overall conference strength.
notes: Elo "K value" = 20 (reg season 'friendly' matches) and starting Elo rating of zero for all teams starting at season's start. "Actual results" - Win=1, Tie=0.5, Loss=0
These ratings include home field advantage (dr=100 for Elo calc, prorated (3.33*week of season) for predicted win probabilities). Additionally, winning margin is factored into the ratings. "N" is calculated as [(Abs game score difference)/7], and "G" is fixed and = [(11+N)/8].
Please see http://www.eloratings.net/system.html for further methodology information.
NOT included in the ratings are team chemistry and schedule strength.
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 202.40
FFLW Caninites Zeta 196.14
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 180.42
New England Burning Pride Alpha 124.70
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 121.84
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 118.80
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 114.91
Brisbane Gods Zeta 105.60
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 103.84
Las Vegas Outlaws Zeta 84.70
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 83.32
IC Incinerators Zeta 77.26
The U Canes Zeta 63.03
Canberra Strike Alpha 48.06
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 26.95
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 25.67
Big Island Growas Zeta 15.31
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 5.83
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta -12.61
Tasmania Devils Alpha -17.87
Aussie Cardinals Alpha -28.46
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha -37.04
Saipan Fighters Zeta -107.11
Perth Scorpions Alpha -119.93
Kiribati Blitz Zeta -128.56
Auckland Flames Alpha -130.77
Outback Astronauts Zeta -136.04
Speightstown Rum Runners Alpha -153.31
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta -156.60
Bermuda Pirates Zeta -173.96
Hollywood Decepticons Alpha -242.13
Buen Retiro Longhorns Zeta -248.30
-----------------------------------------------------------
Predicted Win Probabilities (prorated +46.67 elo for home team) for upcoming wk 14 intraconference games based on Elo data...
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 0.839
IC Incinerators Zeta 0.764
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 0.718
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha 0.713
FFLW Caninites Zeta 0.713
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 0.705
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 0.692
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta 0.689
Aussie Cardinals Alpha 0.611
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 0.580
New England Burning Pride Alpha 0.573
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 0.566
Auckland Flames Alpha 0.551
The U Canes Zeta 0.542
Kiribati Blitz Zeta 0.536
Canberra Strike Alpha 0.516
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 0.484
Saipan Fighters Zeta 0.464
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 0.458
Perth Scorpions Alpha 0.449
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 0.434
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 0.427
Brisbane Gods Zeta 0.420
Speightstown Rum Runners Alpha 0.389
Buen Retiro Longhorns Zeta 0.311
Big Island Growas Zeta 0.308
Tasmania Devils Alpha 0.295
Las Vegas Outlaws Zeta 0.287
Hollywood Decepticons Alpha 0.287
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 0.282
Bermuda Pirates Zeta 0.236
Outback Astronauts Zeta 0.161
note: Teams > 0.640 predicted win probability can be said to be 'greatly favored' in predicted win probability.
-----------------------------------------------------------
Upcoming Games of the Week [game rating = combined team Elo ratings - ABS (team Elo rating difference)]:
Brisbane Gods (10-3-0) at *Rawle Tech Titans (10-3-0) [game rating = 211.19]
Las Vegas Outlaws (9-4-0) at ***FFLW Caninites (13-0-0) [game rating = 169.39]
Emerald City Flying Monkeys (9-4-0) at *New England Burning Pride (11-2-0) [game rating = 96.13]
* - Favored by redicted win probability
*** - Greatly favored by predicted win probability
-----------------------------------------------------------
caveats: This data is based on a limited data set of 13 points(games). Data sets above 30 points are recommended for reliable trend/regression analysis.
Additionally, since no cross-conference/cross-league games have been played yet, the different conferences were combined assuming that both conferences had identical overall conference strength.
notes: Elo "K value" = 20 (reg season 'friendly' matches) and starting Elo rating of zero for all teams starting at season's start. "Actual results" - Win=1, Tie=0.5, Loss=0
These ratings include home field advantage (dr=100 for Elo calc, prorated (3.33*week of season) for predicted win probabilities). Additionally, winning margin is factored into the ratings. "N" is calculated as [(Abs game score difference)/7], and "G" is fixed and = [(11+N)/8].
Please see http://www.eloratings.net/system.html for further methodology information.
NOT included in the ratings are team chemistry and schedule strength.
Last edited Jul 8, 2008 21:20:17
