Calculated Elo Ratings for the Oceania Pro League after wk 12 games...
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 193.30
FFLW Caninites Zeta 183.48
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 170.93
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 131.33
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 124.01
Brisbane Gods Zeta 120.18
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 115.01
New England Burning Pride Alpha 114.35
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 93.67
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 87.46
Las Vegas Outlaws Zeta 76.31
IC Incinerators Zeta 62.68
The U Canes Zeta 54.02
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 49.42
Canberra Strike Alpha 28.77
Big Island Growas Zeta 23.69
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 2.50
Brisbane Bandits Alpha -1.28
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha -13.86
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta -33.70
Aussie Cardinals Alpha -38.97
Tasmania Devils Alpha -40.33
Saipan Fighters Zeta -85.06
Perth Scorpions Alpha -100.64
Kiribati Blitz Zeta -119.55
Auckland Flames Alpha -120.26
Outback Astronauts Zeta -123.38
Speightstown Rum Runners Alpha -149.53
Bermuda Pirates Zeta -152.87
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta -178.65
Buen Retiro Longhorns Zeta -231.92
Hollywood Decepticons Alpha -235.01
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Predicted Win Probabilities (prorated +43.33 elo for home team) for upcoming wk 13 intraconference games based on Elo data...
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 0.855
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 0.831
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 0.830
FFLW Caninites Zeta 0.820
The U Canes Zeta 0.777
Saipan Fighters Zeta 0.687
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 0.683
Aussie Cardinals Alpha 0.672
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 0.657
Las Vegas Outlaws Zeta 0.635
Canberra Strike Alpha 0.621
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 0.617
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 0.607
New England Burning Pride Alpha 0.591
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha 0.539
Brisbane Gods Zeta 0.520
IC Incinerators Zeta 0.480
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 0.461
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 0.409
Bermuda Pirates Zeta 0.393
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 0.383
Perth Scorpions Alpha 0.379
Big Island Growas Zeta 0.365
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 0.343
Auckland Flames Alpha 0.328
Tasmania Devils Alpha 0.317
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta 0.313
Kiribati Blitz Zeta 0.223
Outback Astronauts Zeta 0.180
Buen Retiro Longhorns Zeta 0.170
Hollywood Decepticons Alpha 0.169
Speightstown Rum Runners Alpha 0.145
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Upcoming Games of the Week (top combined Elo ratings):
Zeta: Rawle Tech Titans (10-2-0, elo = 124.01, win prob = 0.343) at FFLivewire Cans (11-1-0, elo = 193.30, win prob = 0.657)
Alpha: Newcastle Bearcats (11-1-0, elo = 131.33, win prob = 0.383) at Brantford Mustangs (12-0-0, elo = 170.93, win prob = 0.617)
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Upcoming Games of the Week (closest predicted win probability difference):
Zeta: Brisbane Gods (10-2-0, elo = 120.18, win prob = 0.520) at IC Incinerators (8-4-0, elo = 62.68, win prob = 0.480)
Alpha: Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels (6-6-0, elo = 2.50, win prob = 0.461) at Dogdandy Enforcers (5-7-0, elo = -13.86, win prob = 0.539)
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caveats: This data is based on a limited data set of 12 points(games). Data sets above 30 points are recommended for reliable trend/regression analysis.
Additionally, since no cross-conference/cross-league games have been played yet, the different conferences were combined assuming that both conferences had identical overall conference strength.
notes: Elo "K value" = 20 (reg season 'friendly' matches) and starting Elo rating of zero for all teams starting at season's start. "Actual results" - Win=1, Tie=0.5, Loss=0
These ratings include home field advantage (dr=100 for Elo calc, prorated (3.33*week of season) for predicted win probabilities). Additionally, winning margin is factored into the ratings. "N" is calculated as [(Abs game score difference)/7], and "G" is fixed and = [(11+N)/8].
Please see http://www.eloratings.net/system.html for further methodology information.
NOT included in the ratings are team chemistry and schedule strength.
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 193.30
FFLW Caninites Zeta 183.48
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 170.93
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 131.33
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 124.01
Brisbane Gods Zeta 120.18
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 115.01
New England Burning Pride Alpha 114.35
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 93.67
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 87.46
Las Vegas Outlaws Zeta 76.31
IC Incinerators Zeta 62.68
The U Canes Zeta 54.02
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 49.42
Canberra Strike Alpha 28.77
Big Island Growas Zeta 23.69
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 2.50
Brisbane Bandits Alpha -1.28
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha -13.86
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta -33.70
Aussie Cardinals Alpha -38.97
Tasmania Devils Alpha -40.33
Saipan Fighters Zeta -85.06
Perth Scorpions Alpha -100.64
Kiribati Blitz Zeta -119.55
Auckland Flames Alpha -120.26
Outback Astronauts Zeta -123.38
Speightstown Rum Runners Alpha -149.53
Bermuda Pirates Zeta -152.87
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta -178.65
Buen Retiro Longhorns Zeta -231.92
Hollywood Decepticons Alpha -235.01
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Predicted Win Probabilities (prorated +43.33 elo for home team) for upcoming wk 13 intraconference games based on Elo data...
Fiji Sea Turtles Alpha 0.855
Brisbane Bandits Alpha 0.831
Tongan Crimson Auha Zeta 0.830
FFLW Caninites Zeta 0.820
The U Canes Zeta 0.777
Saipan Fighters Zeta 0.687
West Scranton Invaders Alpha 0.683
Aussie Cardinals Alpha 0.672
FFLivewire Cans Zeta 0.657
Las Vegas Outlaws Zeta 0.635
Canberra Strike Alpha 0.621
Brantford Mustangs Alpha 0.617
Nauru Tiger Sharks Zeta 0.607
New England Burning Pride Alpha 0.591
Dogdandy Enforcers Alpha 0.539
Brisbane Gods Zeta 0.520
IC Incinerators Zeta 0.480
Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels Alpha 0.461
Emerald City Flying Monkeys Alpha 0.409
Bermuda Pirates Zeta 0.393
Newcastle Bearcats Alpha 0.383
Perth Scorpions Alpha 0.379
Big Island Growas Zeta 0.365
Rawle Tech Titans Zeta 0.343
Auckland Flames Alpha 0.328
Tasmania Devils Alpha 0.317
Great Barrier Reef Sharks Zeta 0.313
Kiribati Blitz Zeta 0.223
Outback Astronauts Zeta 0.180
Buen Retiro Longhorns Zeta 0.170
Hollywood Decepticons Alpha 0.169
Speightstown Rum Runners Alpha 0.145
-----------------------------------------------------------
Upcoming Games of the Week (top combined Elo ratings):
Zeta: Rawle Tech Titans (10-2-0, elo = 124.01, win prob = 0.343) at FFLivewire Cans (11-1-0, elo = 193.30, win prob = 0.657)
Alpha: Newcastle Bearcats (11-1-0, elo = 131.33, win prob = 0.383) at Brantford Mustangs (12-0-0, elo = 170.93, win prob = 0.617)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Upcoming Games of the Week (closest predicted win probability difference):
Zeta: Brisbane Gods (10-2-0, elo = 120.18, win prob = 0.520) at IC Incinerators (8-4-0, elo = 62.68, win prob = 0.480)
Alpha: Wagga Wagga Fighting Squirrels (6-6-0, elo = 2.50, win prob = 0.461) at Dogdandy Enforcers (5-7-0, elo = -13.86, win prob = 0.539)
-----------------------------------------------------------
caveats: This data is based on a limited data set of 12 points(games). Data sets above 30 points are recommended for reliable trend/regression analysis.
Additionally, since no cross-conference/cross-league games have been played yet, the different conferences were combined assuming that both conferences had identical overall conference strength.
notes: Elo "K value" = 20 (reg season 'friendly' matches) and starting Elo rating of zero for all teams starting at season's start. "Actual results" - Win=1, Tie=0.5, Loss=0
These ratings include home field advantage (dr=100 for Elo calc, prorated (3.33*week of season) for predicted win probabilities). Additionally, winning margin is factored into the ratings. "N" is calculated as [(Abs game score difference)/7], and "G" is fixed and = [(11+N)/8].
Please see http://www.eloratings.net/system.html for further methodology information.
NOT included in the ratings are team chemistry and schedule strength.
