Warrior General Games

Looks like we have 6 teams competing for 4 playoff spots. Really it's 4 teams competing for 2 playoff spots as the Waterboys and Apes have clinched. Heading into the final stretch I thought it might be fun to sort out the various scenarios. I'm going to assume the contenders handle the teams they should. Sure, there could be a loss here and there that upsets everything, but I won't account for that just yet. Let me know (as I'm sure you will) if I've missed anything.

It looks like everything boils down to 3 games,

Week 12 Birmingham Blast at Vancouver Waterboys
Week 13 Plainville Explosion at Grape Apes
Week 14 Oakland Dynamites Pop Warner at Assisted Living

Based on my review here are the 'control your own destiny' paths to the playoffs,

Grape Apes
They've locked up the 1 seed due to their head to head win over VW.

Vancouver Waterboys
They've locked up the 2 seed.

Assisted Living
A win versus ODPU and they're in.

Oakland Dynamites Pop Warner
A win versus AS and they're in.

Birmingham Blast
A win versus VW and they're in.

Plainville Explosion
They don't control their own destiny. They have to beat GA and hope for help.


So let's take a look at the scenarios. I think I have them all covered.

Scenario 1
Week 12 Birmingham Blast W at Vancouver Waterboys
Week 13 Plainville Explosion W at Grape Apes
Week 14 Oakland Dynamites Pop Warner W at Assisted Living

1 - Grape Apes (12-2)
2 - Vancouver Waterboys (11-3)
3/4 - Birmingham Blast (11-3)
3/4 - Oakland Dynamites Pop Warner (10-4)


VW still takes the 2 seed due to the points against tiebreaker. ODPU gets the division due to their head to head over AS. I'm not sure if BB (wildcard) or ODPU (alpha champ) gets the 3 seed in this scenario.

Scenario 2
Week 12 Birmingham Blast at Vancouver Waterboys W
Week 13 Plainville Explosion W at Grape Apes
Week 14 Oakland Dynamites Pop Warner W at Assisted Living

1 - Grape Apes (12-2)
2 - Vancouver Waterboys (12-2)
3 - Oakland Dynamites Pop Warner (10-4)
4 - Assisted Living (10-4)

ODPU gets the division due to head to head and AS gets the 4 seed due to wins over both BB and PE.

Scenario 3
Week 12 Birmingham Blast W at Vancouver Waterboys
Week 13 Plainville Explosion at Grape Apes W
Week 14 Oakland Dynamites Pop Warner W at Assisted Living

1 - Grape Apes (13-1)
2 - Vancouver Waterboys (11-3)
3 - Birmingham Blast (11-3)
4 - Oakland Dynamites Pop Warner (10-4)

ODPU gets the 4 due to their 2 wins over AS.

Scenario 4
Week 12 Birmingham Blast W at Vancouver Waterboys
Week 13 Plainville Explosion W at Grape Apes
Week 14 Oakland Dynamites Pop Warner at Assisted Living W

1 - Grape Apes (12-2)
2 - Vancouver Waterboys (11-3)
3 - Assisted Living (11-3)
4 - Birmingham Blast (11-3)

AS gets the 2 due to their win over AS and their overall points against tiebreaker over BB.

Scenario 5
Week 12 Birmingham Blast at Vancouver Waterboys W
Week 13 Plainville Explosion at Grape Apes W
Week 14 Oakland Dynamites Pop Warner at Assisted Living W

1 - Grape Apes (13-1)
2 - Vancouver Waterboys (12-2)
3 - Assisted Living (11-3)
4 - Birmingham Blast (10-4)

BB gets the nod for the 4 seed due to their win over ODPU.

Scenario 6
Week 12 Birmingham Blast W at Vancouver Waterboys
Week 13 Plainville Explosion at Grape Apes W
Week 14 Oakland Dynamites Pop Warner at Assisted Living W

1 - Grape Apes (13-1)
2 - Vancouver Waterboys (11-3)
3/4 - Birmingham Blast (11-3)
3/4 - Assisted Living (10-4)

Another straight forward scenario.

Scenario 7
Week 12 Birmingham Blast at Vancouver Waterboys W
Week 13 Plainville Explosion W at Grape Apes
Week 14 Oakland Dynamites Pop Warner at Assisted Living W

1 - Grape Apes (12-2)
2 - Vancouver Waterboys (12-2)
3 - Assisted Living (11-3)
4 - Plainville Explosion? (10-4)

Here's where it gets confusing. BB beat ODPU which beat PE which beat BB. I *think* PE gets the nod here due to overall points against, but it's close and will probably depend on how the final 3 games go.

Scenario 8
Week 12 Birmingham Blast at Vancouver Waterboys W
Week 13 Plainville Explosion at Grape Apes W
Week 14 Oakland Dynamites Pop Warner W at Assisted Living

1 - Grape Apes (13-1)
2 - Vancouver Waterboys (12-2)
3 - Oakland Dynamites Pop Warner (10-4)
4 - Assisted Living (10-4)

AS gets the final spot due to their win over BB.

Wow, that's a great job breaking it all down!

Double 'wow'! An upset Oakland loss, I think, changes things quite a bit and makes scenarios much clearer over the last two weeks.

VW easily handled BB so we can eliminate some scenarios there. ODPU put themselves out of the playoff race with the tough loss at home today. It's a shame because it relegates what would have been a HUGE week 14 game to "coulda woulda shoulda".

In this analysis I'm still counting on everyone to win the games they should.

Now we're down to one pivotal game,

Week 13 Plainville Explosion at Grape Apes

Based on my review here are the 'control your own destiny' paths to the playoffs,

Grape Apes
They've locked up the 1 seed due to their head to head win over VW.

Vancouver Waterboys
They've locked up the 2 seed.

Assisted Living
ODPU's upset loss puts AS in the playoffs.

Plainville Explosion
Went from the outside looking in to controlling their own destiny with ODPU's loss. Pretty simple here...a win versus GA and they're in, a loss and they're out.

Birmingham Blast
Do not control their own destiny.


So let's take a look at the scenarios. I think I have them all covered.

Scenario 2
Week 12 Birmingham Blast at Vancouver Waterboys W
Week 13 Plainville Explosion W at Grape Apes
Week 14 Oakland Dynamites Pop Warner W at Assisted Living

1 - Grape Apes (12-2)
2 - Vancouver Waterboys (12-2)
3 - Assisted Living (10-4)
4 - Plainville Explosion (10-4)

PE gets the nod due to their win over BB.

Scenario 5
Week 12 Birmingham Blast at Vancouver Waterboys W
Week 13 Plainville Explosion at Grape Apes W
Week 14 Oakland Dynamites Pop Warner at Assisted Living W

1 - Grape Apes (13-1)
2 - Vancouver Waterboys (12-2)
3 - Assisted Living (11-3)
4 - Birmingham Blast (10-4)

Straight forward

Scenario 7
Week 12 Birmingham Blast at Vancouver Waterboys W
Week 13 Plainville Explosion W at Grape Apes
Week 14 Oakland Dynamites Pop Warner at Assisted Living W

1 - Grape Apes (12-2)
2 - Vancouver Waterboys (12-2)
3 - Assisted Living (11-3)
4 - Plainville Explosion (10-4)

PE gets the nod due to their win over BB.

Scenario 8
Week 12 Birmingham Blast at Vancouver Waterboys W
Week 13 Plainville Explosion at Grape Apes W
Week 14 Oakland Dynamites Pop Warner W at Assisted Living

1 - Grape Apes (13-1)
2 - Vancouver Waterboys (12-2)
3 - Assisted Living (10-4)
4 - Birmingham Blast (10-4)

Straight forward.

So, bottom line, PE has to beat GA to make the playoffs otherwise it's BB. But, as we've seen, those pesky CPU teams can still surprise you.

Great job, Mick. Love it.