Warrior General Games

Originally posted by DeeVee8
Rob.!

GE, do you remember where you saw that nugget of knowledge that you just feverishly pulled out of your ass?

To bad we dont have a search engine. I could justify many of my statements.

Originally posted by Galactic Empire
I remember a GLB god saying this in the past. If a play is successful (whatever that means) it's play call probability increases.

I'm pretty sure this is correct, or at least that Bort or Corndog said it.

Originally posted by Xars
I don't think this is the right formula for this discussion. I think you're using the permutation formula to determine the chance that this specific game outcome was achieved rather than the more generic combination formula which is what our discussion is more about.

A .00018 probability over 25 seasons of games across all tiers is different than generically determining that a 20% play call chance happening 52% of the time is that rare.

But I'm on vacation so I'm not going into major math mode today.



Of course it's different if you want to talk about every game being simmed. Everyone has different play settings too, so I wasn't even remotely trying to answer that question.

Just trying to add some color to the OP's statements about how unlikely his result was. I'm pretty confident that a simple Binomial isn't really a good fit for this anyway.

Originally posted by Spastic_Cowboy
I'm pretty sure this is correct, or at least that Bort or Corndog said it.

See...I'm not crazy

I'm pretty sure they were just as shady with an answer to this as they were with SAs bringing a skill over 100... But I do remember there being some round-about answer to imply there is a slight auto adjust.

Was that play the first one in the playbook?

Originally posted by drake262
Was that play the first one in the playbook?

yes, which I thought of but again SHOULDN'T matter, even though it might

Do an experiment. If you think the order of the plays matter, put that play at the end of the playbook and run a scrim.

Originally posted by Galactic Empire
Do an experiment. If you think the order of the plays matter, put that play at the end of the playbook and run a scrim.

Won't prove anything.

A new scrim will generate random numbers from a different part of the table I talked about.

You'd have to change the order of the plays and run numerous scrims with setup A and then numerous scrims with setup B to prove/ disprove that the order mattered.

Originally posted by HayRow
yes, which I thought of but again SHOULDN'T matter, even though it might

Seriously doubt it does considering all the testing Rob, myself and others did on the Defensive Matrix multiple seasons ago.

If play order mattered, I think one of us would have mentioned it as a possible variable.

Originally posted by Galactic Empire
You gotta remember though it isnt all about the stars. If a play is working, it is more likely to be called again.

Originally posted by Xars
I'm 99% sure this isn't true. Adding code that defines a play as working/not working and then adjusting priority would be a huge undertaking that would lead to all kinds of play calling bugs.

I don't see it.



I haven't seen this said anywhere but it seems to happen with my team all the time. Same Offense having changed nothing if I am successful running the ball I will have more rushing attempts and the plays working better seem to be called more.....maybe its my down and distance priorities kicking in but Ive noticed it more lately because I have been working out of town the last month so Ive not been able to game plan as much as I wanted. That said every once in a while I notice that a low priority play gets called a lot more than it should and I'm pulling my hair out....so it could just be chance mixed with down and distance.