Warrior General Games

Originally posted by Laggo
Come on boys, lets not pretend throwing 58% and throwing 62%+ is the same thing. It's really not. The sample size of pass attempts gets pretty large.

a 2% difference in completion % is basically (at an 80 attempts per game rate for the avg of full passing teams) 1-2 extra completions a game which isnt much at all.

plays called can DEFINITELY have a greater impact on completion % than build

to complete 65ish for a season, EVERYTHING has to click... anything less than 55% and you have either bad playcalling or builds, or both. If you're less than 50%, it's both

that's a good rule of thumb to go by... for future reference

No idea why you guys are claiming value based on 55-65 completion %. Seems pretty silly.

Originally posted by USC_Trojans
a 2% difference in completion % is basically (at an 80 attempts per game rate for the avg of full passing teams) 1-2 extra completions a game which isnt much at all.

If it isn't much at all then why cant you do it?

How many QB's in the game near vet do you think have a career average > 60%

I'm going to go ahead and say not many, and the ones that do played for better than average teams a majority of the time

That's not an accident

It's not like if you go from 57% to 62% suddenly your .500 team is going 15-4 or something to start the season, but there is definitely some correlation between QB's who win a lot of games and high completion percentages. Causation? I wouldn't say that. But you can easily pick out incompletes in any game that would have changed the morale spiral and possibly the result.

It's hard to quanitfy what that means to a team, but it seems a lot like a personal excuse to dismiss it as meaningless because "it isn't much at all" to improve your completion % that much - when neither you or many other people can manage to do it consistently.

By isnt much i mean those extra 1-2 passes arent doing squat besides an extra couple yards which most good teams dont need. Southside is number 1 in its tier yet our qb is sitting at 57-58% most seasons. The reality is he really only needs to complete 33% of his passes per set of downs with the way glb passing works.

No, because first down passes get checked down a lot so you get 2nd and 2 or 3 and 2 even with a completion.

There can be a huge difference in offense effectiveness with just a small change in pass completions. It's really about your First Down conversion %.

So higher conversion numbers drive lower fail numbers. I've talked about fail rates in the past but people don't seem to grasp their importance.

If you succeed 80% of the time, you fail 20%. That's one in five.

If you succeed 83% of the time, you fail 16.66%. That's one in six.

If you suceed 85.7% of the time, you fail 14.3%. That's one in seven.

Those differences are HUGE in a game like GLB2. The average drive length of the above goes from 4 First Downs to 5 First Downs to 6 First Downs. Not only does the average move but the 95% confidence interval around the average moves too. Which means your worst drives also go farther.

In football, where a team rarely has to go more than 80 yards for a TD, changing your average drive from 40ish yards to 60ish yards is immense.

Every small increase in pass comp% should (there are play calling exceptions) result in a higher success rate for First Downs, longer drives, more scoring and putting the other team in more disadvantageous positions - helping your defense.

Those differences aren't that huge though which is why teams just continually pass deep. Because whether you hit it on the 1st try or the 3rd it still works. Efficiency is really nice, but it is a very small piece of the pie. It is probably a good argument to say under 50% you don't have the superstars or the builds going on for you. But being at 65% rather than 55% is a meaningful statistic between value or winning, imo.

Originally posted by bhall43
Efficiency is really nice, but it is a very small piece of the pie.

Efficiency is the MOST important number.

Pass Completion (as you correctly point out) is the number that can vary a lot an not be meaningful. You could be at 33% Pass Completion and achieve 100% Efficiency (theoretically) - you always achieve a First Down or TD.

Proving that Efficiency is key and Pass Comp% isn't. Pass comp% is an input that's highly correlated with Efficiency, but that's all it is.

It's y = f(x). y is Efficiency. x is Pass Completion%.

Originally posted by Xars
Efficiency is the MOST important number.

Pass Completion (as you correctly point out) is the number that can vary a lot an not be meaningful. You could be at 33% Pass Completion and achieve 100% Efficiency (theoretically) - you always achieve a First Down or TD.

Proving that Efficiency is key and Pass Comp% isn't. Pass comp% is an input that's highly correlated with Efficiency, but that's all it is.

It's y = f(x). y is Efficiency. x is Pass Completion%.



Efficiency on 3rd down is the most important number imo. Because that is where games are won and lost. 3rd and shorts/mediums/longs. If you don't have high % plays in those situations you probably lost the game. And really that is 90% of the defensive battle as well. Though I absolutely hate late game bs because the battle becomes 3rd and 4th down.

Originally posted by TDiddy8701
to complete 65ish for a season, EVERYTHING has to click... anything less than 55% and you have either bad playcalling or builds, or both. If you're less than 50%, it's both

that's a good rule of thumb to go by... for future reference

Jumping in here mid-convo, but this (and centering on pass completion in general) is silly.

A team can have a more efficient offense throwing long passes against Queen City (and just about any team) than short passes. The yards/attempt are significantly higher across the board. You know what's not higher with long passes? The completion percentage. Screens and short passes can give you a high completion percentage. That's not magical builds or playcalling.

In that same breath, a 50% completion percentage against non-CPUs where you get 7+ yards/attempt is good. The reality is that the guys at 65% probably have poor playcalling.