ALPHA CONFERENCE PLAYOFF PICTURE - after 15 games
1.) Graz Grizzlies (15-0) - CLINCHED #1
Game 15: beat District 34-33
Game 16: #14 Black Hand Goal Line Mafia (4-11) {LIKELY WIN}
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Asau
Go back to sleep, Graz. The playoffs are still 4 days away.
2.) Asau Golden Eagles (13-2) - CLINCHED TOP-3
Game 15: beat Three Kingdom 20-19
Game 16: #9 Portland Rage (7-8) {TOSS-UP}
Relevant tie-breakers: lost to Graz, Coxsackie
A missed extra-point was the difference for Asau as they won 20-19, clinching a top-3 finish. Now to clinch the 2-seed, they just need either a win or a Coxsackie loss... except that Coxsackie's next game is against Gold Coast, a sure-win. And with their earlier loss to Coxsackie, Asau has to stay ahead of them to keep the 2-seed. So if Asau wins, they finish #2. If Asau loses, they finish #3.
3.) Coxsackie Hood Hugos (12-3) - CLINCHED TOP-4
Game 15: beat Chicago 40-9
Game 16: #12 Gold Coast Vipers (4-11) {LIKELY WIN}
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Asau; lost to Miami
With their win over Chicago, Coxsackie has mathematically clinched a top-4 finish... pretty much a top-3 finish, actually. The only way they could fuck this up now is if they somehow lose to Gold Coast, along with Miami beating Sunday, in which case Miami would knock Coxsackie down to #4. And that's just not happening.
Coxsackie can even get up to #2, but they'll need help... Portland would have to upset Asau to set up a tie, and Coxsackie owns the tie-breaker over Asau and would thus take #2.
4.) Miami Red Hawks (11-4) - CLINCHED TOP-4
Game 15: beat Hogwarts 34-27
Game 16: #7 Sunday Funday (8-7) {TOSS-UP}
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Coxsackie
Miami's win over Hogwarts, combined with 3KW's loss to Asau, means Miami has now clinched the 4-seed. Not even a loss to Sunday in Game 16 would change that.
That's as high as they can really go, though... Miami owns the tie-breaker with Coxsackie, but the only way they could use that is if Coxsackie somehow loses to Gold Coast in Game 16. And that's just not happening.
5.) Three Kingdom Warriors (9-6) - CLINCHED 5-SEED
Game 15: lost to Asau 20-19
Game 16: #13 Bloodweiser Bugle All Stars (4-11) {LIKELY WIN}
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Hogwarts, Sunday, District 9
Despite their loss to Asau, 3KW has actually clinched the 5-seed now, thanks to Hogwarts, Sunday and District 9 all losing Game 15. 3KW owns the tie-breaker over all 3 teams, so even if 3KW loses to Bloodweiser, they'll win any and all tie-breakers to stay at #5. But they can't get any higher either... Miami is now beyond their reach.
6.) Hogwarts School of Witchcraft and Wizardry (8-7)
Game 15: lost to Miami 34-27
Game 16: #15 Chicago Hedgehogs (4-11) {TOSS-UP}
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated District 9; lost to Three Kingdom, Sunday, Portland; 335 points allowed
A Hogwarts win or a Portland loss clinches a playoff spot for Hogwarts.
If Hogwarts wins, they will hold the 6-seed unless Sunday wins and District loses. That would put Hogwarts and Sunday in a tie at 9-7, and since Sunday already beat Hogwarts, Sunday would take #6 and push down Hogwarts to #7.
If Hogwarts loses, they can still stay at #6, but only if Sunday, District and Portland all lose too. They would drop just one spot to #7 if Sunday wins and District loses.
If Hogwarts loses and Sunday and District both win, then the Portland game settles Hogwarts's fate: a Portland win knocks Hogwarts down to #9, but a Portland loss lets Hogwarts hold #8.
If Hogwarts and Sunday both lose, then Hogwarts needs District or Portland (or both) to lose to hold #8... otherwise Hogwarts would also get pushed down to #9.
7.) Sunday Funday (8-7)
Game 15: lost to Portland 23-20
Game 16: #4 Miami Red Hawks (11-4) {TOSS-UP}
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Hogwarts; lost to Three Kingdom, District 9, Portland; 372 points allowed
A Sunday win or a Portland loss clinches a playoff spot for Sunday.
If Sunday wins, they'll clinch #6 if District loses or #7 if District wins, regardless of whether Hogwarts and Portland win or lose.
If Sunday loses, they can only hold #7 if Hogwarts and Portland both lose. Sunday can also hold #8 if Hogwarts wins and Portland loses. But if Sunday loses and Hogwards and Portland both win, Sunday drops to #9.
If Sunday and Hogwarts both lose and Portland win, then the District game comes into play... Sunday takes #8 if District wins, but #9 if District loses.
8.) District 9 Prawns (8-7)
Game 15: lost to Graz 34-33
Game 16: #11 Padre's Parrish (5-10) {TOSS-UP}
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Sunday, Portland; lost to Three Kingdom, Hogwarts; 461 points allowed
A District 9 win or a Portland loss clinches a playoff spot for District 9.
If District wins and Hogwarts loses, District clinches the 6-seed. If District and Hogwarts both win, District would clinch the 7-seed if Sunday loses or the 8-seed if Sunday wins.
If District loses, they can still claim the 7-seed if Hogwarts wins and Sunday loses, or if Hogwarts and Sunday both lose and Portland wins. District could also find themselves in the 9-spot if Hogwarts loses and Sunday and Portland both win. Otherwise, a District loss means they still clinch the 8-seed.
9.) Portland Rage (7-8)
Game 15: beat Sunday 23-20
Game 16: #2 Asau Golden Eagles (13-2) {TOSS-UP}
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Hogwarts, Sunday; lost to District 9; 436 points allowed
Thanks to Portland upsetting Sunday and Hogwarts losing to Miami, Portland's playoff chances are still alive. However, if Portland loses Game 16 to Asau, then they're done.
Even if Portland upsets Asau, they still need help to make the playoffs: either Hogwarts or Sunday would have to lose. If Hogwarts and Sunday both win, Portland is still stuck at #9. If just Hogwarts or just Sunday loses, then Portland steals the 8-seed. If both Hogwarts and Sunday lose, then the District game comes into play... a District loss lets Portland rise all the way up to #6, while a District win means Portland takes #7.
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Want to double-check my work? Here are all of the possible outcomes for 6 through 9, assuming #5 3KW beats Bloodweiser.
Hogwarts W / Sunday W / District W / Portland W
6) Hogwarts (9-7) {1-1} {335}
7) Sunday (9-7) {1-1} {372}
8) District (9-7) {1-1} {461}
9) Portland (8-8)
Hogwarts W / Sunday W / District W / Portland L
6) Hogwarts (9-7) {1-1} {335}
7) Sunday (9-7) {1-1} {372}
8) District (9-7) {1-1} {461}
9) Portland (7-9)
Hogwarts W / Sunday W / District L / Portland W
6) Sunday (9-7)
7) Hogwarts (9-7)
8) District (8-8)
9) Portland (8-8)
Hogwarts W / Sunday W / District L / Portland L
6) Sunday (9-7)
7) Hogwarts (9-7)
8) District (8-8)
9) Portland (7-9)
Hogwarts W / Sunday L / District W / Portland W
6) Hogwarts (9-7)
7) District (9-7)
8) Portland (8-8)
9) Sunday (8-8)
Hogwarts W / Sunday L / District W / Portland L
6) Hogwarts (9-7)
7) District (9-7)
8) Sunday (8-8)
9) Portland (7-9)
Hogwarts W / Sunday L / District L / Portland W
6) Hogwarts (9-7)
7) District (8-8) {2-0}
8) Portland (8-8) {1-1}
9) Sunday (8-8) {0-2}
Hogwarts W / Sunday L / District L / Portland L
6) Hogwarts (9-7)
7) District (8-8)
8) Sunday (8-8)
9) Portland (7-9)
Hogwarts L / Sunday W / District W / Portland W
6) District (9-7)
7) Sunday (9-7)
8) Portland (8-8)
9) Hogwarts (8-8)
Hogwarts L / Sunday W / District W / Portland L
6) District (9-7)
7) Sunday (9-7)
8) Hogwarts (8-8)
9) Portland (7-9)
Hogwarts L / Sunday W / District L / Portland W
6) Sunday (9-7)
7) Hogwarts (8-8) {1-1} {335}
8) Portland (8-8) {1-1} {436}
9) District (8-8) {1-1} {461}
Hogwarts L / Sunday W / District L / Portland L
6) Sunday (9-7)
7) Hogwarts (8-8)
8) District (8-8)
9) Portland (7-9)
Hogwarts L / Sunday L / District W / Portland W
6) District (9-7)
7) Portland (8-8) {2-0}
8) Sunday (8-8) {1-1}
9) Hogwarts (8-8) {0-2}
Hogwarts L / Sunday L / District W / Portland L
6) District (9-7)
7) Sunday (8-8)
8) Hogwarts (8-8)
9) Portland (7-9)
Hogwarts L / Sunday L / District L / Portland W
6) Portland (8-8) {2-1} {436}
7) District (8-8) {2-1} {461}
8) Hogwarts (8-8) {1-2} {335}
9) Sunday (8-8) {1-2} {372}
Hogwarts L / Sunday L / District L / Portland L
6) Hogwarts (8-8) {1-1} {335}
7) Sunday (8-8) {1-1} {372}
8) District (8-8) {1-1} {461}
9) Portland (7-9)
1.) Graz Grizzlies (15-0) - CLINCHED #1
Game 15: beat District 34-33
Game 16: #14 Black Hand Goal Line Mafia (4-11) {LIKELY WIN}
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Asau
Go back to sleep, Graz. The playoffs are still 4 days away.
2.) Asau Golden Eagles (13-2) - CLINCHED TOP-3
Game 15: beat Three Kingdom 20-19
Game 16: #9 Portland Rage (7-8) {TOSS-UP}
Relevant tie-breakers: lost to Graz, Coxsackie
A missed extra-point was the difference for Asau as they won 20-19, clinching a top-3 finish. Now to clinch the 2-seed, they just need either a win or a Coxsackie loss... except that Coxsackie's next game is against Gold Coast, a sure-win. And with their earlier loss to Coxsackie, Asau has to stay ahead of them to keep the 2-seed. So if Asau wins, they finish #2. If Asau loses, they finish #3.
3.) Coxsackie Hood Hugos (12-3) - CLINCHED TOP-4
Game 15: beat Chicago 40-9
Game 16: #12 Gold Coast Vipers (4-11) {LIKELY WIN}
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Asau; lost to Miami
With their win over Chicago, Coxsackie has mathematically clinched a top-4 finish... pretty much a top-3 finish, actually. The only way they could fuck this up now is if they somehow lose to Gold Coast, along with Miami beating Sunday, in which case Miami would knock Coxsackie down to #4. And that's just not happening.
Coxsackie can even get up to #2, but they'll need help... Portland would have to upset Asau to set up a tie, and Coxsackie owns the tie-breaker over Asau and would thus take #2.
4.) Miami Red Hawks (11-4) - CLINCHED TOP-4
Game 15: beat Hogwarts 34-27
Game 16: #7 Sunday Funday (8-7) {TOSS-UP}
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Coxsackie
Miami's win over Hogwarts, combined with 3KW's loss to Asau, means Miami has now clinched the 4-seed. Not even a loss to Sunday in Game 16 would change that.
That's as high as they can really go, though... Miami owns the tie-breaker with Coxsackie, but the only way they could use that is if Coxsackie somehow loses to Gold Coast in Game 16. And that's just not happening.
5.) Three Kingdom Warriors (9-6) - CLINCHED 5-SEED
Game 15: lost to Asau 20-19
Game 16: #13 Bloodweiser Bugle All Stars (4-11) {LIKELY WIN}
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Hogwarts, Sunday, District 9
Despite their loss to Asau, 3KW has actually clinched the 5-seed now, thanks to Hogwarts, Sunday and District 9 all losing Game 15. 3KW owns the tie-breaker over all 3 teams, so even if 3KW loses to Bloodweiser, they'll win any and all tie-breakers to stay at #5. But they can't get any higher either... Miami is now beyond their reach.
6.) Hogwarts School of Witchcraft and Wizardry (8-7)
Game 15: lost to Miami 34-27
Game 16: #15 Chicago Hedgehogs (4-11) {TOSS-UP}
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated District 9; lost to Three Kingdom, Sunday, Portland; 335 points allowed
A Hogwarts win or a Portland loss clinches a playoff spot for Hogwarts.
If Hogwarts wins, they will hold the 6-seed unless Sunday wins and District loses. That would put Hogwarts and Sunday in a tie at 9-7, and since Sunday already beat Hogwarts, Sunday would take #6 and push down Hogwarts to #7.
If Hogwarts loses, they can still stay at #6, but only if Sunday, District and Portland all lose too. They would drop just one spot to #7 if Sunday wins and District loses.
If Hogwarts loses and Sunday and District both win, then the Portland game settles Hogwarts's fate: a Portland win knocks Hogwarts down to #9, but a Portland loss lets Hogwarts hold #8.
If Hogwarts and Sunday both lose, then Hogwarts needs District or Portland (or both) to lose to hold #8... otherwise Hogwarts would also get pushed down to #9.
7.) Sunday Funday (8-7)
Game 15: lost to Portland 23-20
Game 16: #4 Miami Red Hawks (11-4) {TOSS-UP}
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Hogwarts; lost to Three Kingdom, District 9, Portland; 372 points allowed
A Sunday win or a Portland loss clinches a playoff spot for Sunday.
If Sunday wins, they'll clinch #6 if District loses or #7 if District wins, regardless of whether Hogwarts and Portland win or lose.
If Sunday loses, they can only hold #7 if Hogwarts and Portland both lose. Sunday can also hold #8 if Hogwarts wins and Portland loses. But if Sunday loses and Hogwards and Portland both win, Sunday drops to #9.
If Sunday and Hogwarts both lose and Portland win, then the District game comes into play... Sunday takes #8 if District wins, but #9 if District loses.
8.) District 9 Prawns (8-7)
Game 15: lost to Graz 34-33
Game 16: #11 Padre's Parrish (5-10) {TOSS-UP}
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Sunday, Portland; lost to Three Kingdom, Hogwarts; 461 points allowed
A District 9 win or a Portland loss clinches a playoff spot for District 9.
If District wins and Hogwarts loses, District clinches the 6-seed. If District and Hogwarts both win, District would clinch the 7-seed if Sunday loses or the 8-seed if Sunday wins.
If District loses, they can still claim the 7-seed if Hogwarts wins and Sunday loses, or if Hogwarts and Sunday both lose and Portland wins. District could also find themselves in the 9-spot if Hogwarts loses and Sunday and Portland both win. Otherwise, a District loss means they still clinch the 8-seed.
9.) Portland Rage (7-8)
Game 15: beat Sunday 23-20
Game 16: #2 Asau Golden Eagles (13-2) {TOSS-UP}
Relevant tie-breakers: defeated Hogwarts, Sunday; lost to District 9; 436 points allowed
Thanks to Portland upsetting Sunday and Hogwarts losing to Miami, Portland's playoff chances are still alive. However, if Portland loses Game 16 to Asau, then they're done.
Even if Portland upsets Asau, they still need help to make the playoffs: either Hogwarts or Sunday would have to lose. If Hogwarts and Sunday both win, Portland is still stuck at #9. If just Hogwarts or just Sunday loses, then Portland steals the 8-seed. If both Hogwarts and Sunday lose, then the District game comes into play... a District loss lets Portland rise all the way up to #6, while a District win means Portland takes #7.
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-
Want to double-check my work? Here are all of the possible outcomes for 6 through 9, assuming #5 3KW beats Bloodweiser.
Hogwarts W / Sunday W / District W / Portland W
6) Hogwarts (9-7) {1-1} {335}
7) Sunday (9-7) {1-1} {372}
8) District (9-7) {1-1} {461}
9) Portland (8-8)
Hogwarts W / Sunday W / District W / Portland L
6) Hogwarts (9-7) {1-1} {335}
7) Sunday (9-7) {1-1} {372}
8) District (9-7) {1-1} {461}
9) Portland (7-9)
Hogwarts W / Sunday W / District L / Portland W
6) Sunday (9-7)
7) Hogwarts (9-7)
8) District (8-8)
9) Portland (8-8)
Hogwarts W / Sunday W / District L / Portland L
6) Sunday (9-7)
7) Hogwarts (9-7)
8) District (8-8)
9) Portland (7-9)
Hogwarts W / Sunday L / District W / Portland W
6) Hogwarts (9-7)
7) District (9-7)
8) Portland (8-8)
9) Sunday (8-8)
Hogwarts W / Sunday L / District W / Portland L
6) Hogwarts (9-7)
7) District (9-7)
8) Sunday (8-8)
9) Portland (7-9)
Hogwarts W / Sunday L / District L / Portland W
6) Hogwarts (9-7)
7) District (8-8) {2-0}
8) Portland (8-8) {1-1}
9) Sunday (8-8) {0-2}
Hogwarts W / Sunday L / District L / Portland L
6) Hogwarts (9-7)
7) District (8-8)
8) Sunday (8-8)
9) Portland (7-9)
Hogwarts L / Sunday W / District W / Portland W
6) District (9-7)
7) Sunday (9-7)
8) Portland (8-8)
9) Hogwarts (8-8)
Hogwarts L / Sunday W / District W / Portland L
6) District (9-7)
7) Sunday (9-7)
8) Hogwarts (8-8)
9) Portland (7-9)
Hogwarts L / Sunday W / District L / Portland W
6) Sunday (9-7)
7) Hogwarts (8-8) {1-1} {335}
8) Portland (8-8) {1-1} {436}
9) District (8-8) {1-1} {461}
Hogwarts L / Sunday W / District L / Portland L
6) Sunday (9-7)
7) Hogwarts (8-8)
8) District (8-8)
9) Portland (7-9)
Hogwarts L / Sunday L / District W / Portland W
6) District (9-7)
7) Portland (8-8) {2-0}
8) Sunday (8-8) {1-1}
9) Hogwarts (8-8) {0-2}
Hogwarts L / Sunday L / District W / Portland L
6) District (9-7)
7) Sunday (8-8)
8) Hogwarts (8-8)
9) Portland (7-9)
Hogwarts L / Sunday L / District L / Portland W
6) Portland (8-8) {2-1} {436}
7) District (8-8) {2-1} {461}
8) Hogwarts (8-8) {1-2} {335}
9) Sunday (8-8) {1-2} {372}
Hogwarts L / Sunday L / District L / Portland L
6) Hogwarts (8-8) {1-1} {335}
7) Sunday (8-8) {1-1} {372}
8) District (8-8) {1-1} {461}
9) Portland (7-9)
Edited by Novus on May 2, 2013 23:12:46
