The goal: 9-7 with tiebreaks
*** All % chances assume only small roster changes take place in the remainder of the season - 3 to 6 players ***
Melbourne
Estimated chance of:
Making playoffs (100%)
Home playoff game (100%)
#2 seed (90%)
#1 seed (63%)
Already at 8 wins with several tiebreakers, even a complete team gutting tonight would be only 50-50 at keeping them out of a playoff spot. They are also assured of a home playoff game, as there are really only 3 games on the schedule that they have the potential to be defeated in (Bikini, Tonga, Florida Parish). There is a miniscule chance that Christchurch would somehow pull off the greatest regular-season upset GLB has ever seen, but even that would only drop Melbourne to the #4 seed.
They have to be considered the favorites for the #1 seed, as with their likely points-scored tiebreak suggests even a defeat at the hands of Tonga or Florida Parish would still let them claim the top spot.
Bikini Atoll
Estimated chance of:
Making playoffs (100%)
Home playoff game (100%)
#2 seed (50%)
#1 seed (25%)
The Shrooms are in even better shape than Melbourne as they have the same record and only two games in which they might potentially be defeated. The trouble for them is they'd be considered the underdogs in both games.
They can grab the #1 seed straight up in two weeks by defeating Melbourne. This is likely their only chance to do so, as they would not win either a 2 or 3-way tie at 15-1 with Melbourne. They would need Melbourne to lose a second game and be dropped to the #3 seed in order to leverage their head-to-head tiebreak over Tonga.
Tonga
Estimated chance of:
Making playoffs (100%)
Home playoff game (98%)
#2 seed (40%)
#1 seed (10%)
Tonga has 1 extremely tough game left - Melbourne. A week 16 matchup against Illesheim could also be a battle of equals. They have 2 other games (Ramekins, Wolverines) where they are heavily favored, but have some potential of being defeated. This gives them a wider range of possible results, but even losing all 4 of those games only drops them to 11-5, which is probably enough for a home playoff game, though there is a small chance of it being only good enough for the #5 seed - and a even smaller chance that they will actually drop all 4.
They are hurt at the top by their week 1 single point loss to the Shrooms. Their best case scenario is for both Melbourne and the Sea Dragons to defeat the Shrooms, then they can claim the #1 seed by taking care of business in their remaining games. Melbourne is the greatest threat to this.
There is still a Tonga scenario for #1 or #2 if only Melbourne beats the Shrooms. It involves a three way tie at 15-1 between Melbourne-Tonga-Bikini. Since the tiebreaks are round-robin in this scenario (Tonga over Melbourne over Shrooms over Tonga), it goes to the points-scored tiebreak. Melbourne has a solid - but not insurmountable - lead here and Tonga has a big lead over the Shrooms.
If they go undefeated the rest of the season (including beating Melbourne), then they are nearly assured of at least the #2 spot.
Christchurch
Estimated chance of:
Making playoffs (99.999%)
Home playoff game (33%)
#2 seed (0.001%)
#1 seed (0%)
Christchurch has 4 tough but certainly winnable fights on their hands and then faces almost certain defeat by Melbourne. They'd have to lose all 5 and then drop a even-levelled matchup week 16 to miss the playoffs. Betting against Christchurch versus only modestly higher levelled opponents 4 weeks in a row is a real bad idea.
They have a tiny shot at the #2 seed, but it involves going undefeated the rest of the way (including Melbourne), Tonga dropping two games and Melbourne losing one other. It's made even worse by the fact that someone has to win Melbourne-Tonga, so they either need Tonga to lose to someone they're heavily favored over (Illesheim alone isn't enough) or they need Melbourne to beat Tonga and then lose to Florida Parish.
The real question here revolves around whether or not they can claim the up-for-grabs #4 seed. If they beat the Horsemen this week, they have an excellent shot, in fact I'd probably call them the favorites. On the other hand, they can't outperform their roster forever ... can they?
Horsemen
Estimated chance of:
Making playoffs (100%)
Home playoff game (20%)
#2 seed (0%)
With 4 games which they should dominate, the Horsemen should have no trouble reaching the 9-wins necessary for a playoff invite. Again, the question is if they can claim the #4 spot. With a 3 game deficit vs the undefeateds and a 2-game deficit versus Tonga (and on the wrong side of all three tiebreaks) they have no plausible route to the #2 seed, and only an astronomical chance at #3.
Their chances of home field largely rest on the outcome of this week's battle in Christchurch. If they lose, they'll be down 2 games with CC holding the tiebreaker. It's technically possible for them to come back from that, but I wouldn't bank on CC beating the Horsemen then dropping 3 more. If they win, they'll be in control of their own destiny for homefield, but would need to knock off El Fuego, Dunedin and the Ramekins to lock it up for certain.
Fuego
Estimated chance of:
Making playoffs (98%)
Home playoff game (10%)
#2 seed (0%)
Pretty close to a playoff lock, with games left against Dunedin, Ramekins, the Horsemen and the Bandits, they would need to drop all 4 to miss the playoffs.
They have a small chance of contending for home field. They need the Horsemen to beat Christchurch, and then beat the Horsemen themselves. Then they'll need to do one game better than Christchurch versus the Ramekins, Dunedin, Bandits and Alpha Conference. Given Christchurch's habit of great planning, that likely means going 4-0 against those teams to even have a shot.
North Marinara
Estimated chance of:
Making playoffs (90%)
Home playoff game (3%)
#2 seed (0%)
Losing to Coney Island was huge. They went from being the favorites for the #4 seed to having a small chance of missing the playoffs entirely.
With favorable tiebreaks on Dunedin and the Bandits, their playoff hopes are still very strong, but they let Coney Island back into the picture which means 8-8 won't be enough for them if Dunedin or the Bandits manage 9-7. Fortunately for them, getting to 8-8 is assured and they only need to win one of Tonga, Christchurch, El Fuego, Four Horsemen or Easter Island. While they would not be considered the favorite in any of these except possibly the last, they have a very credible chance in all of them.
There is a doomsday scenario for them at 9-7. If Coney Island and Dunedin both make it to 9-7 with them, one of those 3 teams will miss the playoffs. The round-robin tie breaks will cancel out (you REALLY should have beaten the Warriors, you know!) and points-scored will be the deciding factor. It's too early to tell who finishes third and out of the playoffs in this scenario, but it isn't going to be Dunedin.
Coney Island Warriors
Estimated chance of:
Making playoffs (45%)
Home playoff game (0%)
With 7 teams above this strongly likely to make the playoffs, we are left with 3 teams fighting for 1 spot. The Warriors have the advantage because they play both of the other two, and thus control their own destiny. In fact, they get both of the others in the next two weeks - how awesome is that?
If they win both, they'll be at worst in a three way tie at 6-4 with the other two. Their remaining schedule covers all the extremes - they'll lose for sure to Melbourne and the Shrooms, but would be strongly favored over FPQA, Redscape and Uluru. The last of these may try to play spoiler, but assuming they come up short, this would put the Warriors at 9-6 with tiebreak advantage. That's insurmountable for either the Wolverines or Bandits. The Warriors could even win week 16 and get to 10-6.
However, if they win only one, things get dicey. Their week 16 opponent is also 4-4, and they would need that win to get to 9-7. They'd also need the team they lose against to come up short by winning only two games for the rest of the season and end at 8-8.
If they lose both of the next two games, there is no practical scenario for them to make the playoffs.
Dunedin Wolverines
Estimated chance of:
Making playoffs (40%)
Home playoff game (0%)
With the tiebreak over the Bandits, you'd think they'd have a better shot. However, the last second emergence of Coney Island has the potential to throw a wrench in their season.
If they win against the Warriors this week, games against the Chenabogs and Barbarians should get them to 9 wins with the tiebreak.
Should they fall this week, things are less clear. They would be looking at an expected 8-win finish with no tiebreak. They would need to win two of Fuego, Christchurch, Horsemen and SASK (Alpha) to get back in it. They would not be the favorites in any of these games, though SASK might be close. However, beating any of the others would be a tough task. They can get away with winning only one if the Ramekins only manage 9-7, per the North Marinara Doomsday Scenario.
Chinese Bandits
Estimated chance of:
Making playoffs (20%)
Home playoff game (0%)
They're not done yet! They do need help, though, and can't make the playoffs on their own, unless they can beat the Shrooms or Tonga.
Most importantly, they need Coney Island to take down Dunedin and then lose to them. Any other combination of those two games would require a pair of major upsets (Christchurch and Fuego) or for Dunedin/Coney to blow a game they were supposed to win (Uluru springs to mind).
If they do get the ideal results out of Coney Island, 3 "gimme" games left on the schedule should guarantee them 9-7 with a tiebreak on Coney. All they would need is for Dunedin to fail to upset any of the 4 opponents listed in their section above. They could further secure their spot by performing an upset of their own against El Fuego or Christchurch (meaning Dunedin would have to upset 2 teams).
*** All % chances assume only small roster changes take place in the remainder of the season - 3 to 6 players ***
Melbourne
Estimated chance of:
Making playoffs (100%)
Home playoff game (100%)
#2 seed (90%)
#1 seed (63%)
Already at 8 wins with several tiebreakers, even a complete team gutting tonight would be only 50-50 at keeping them out of a playoff spot. They are also assured of a home playoff game, as there are really only 3 games on the schedule that they have the potential to be defeated in (Bikini, Tonga, Florida Parish). There is a miniscule chance that Christchurch would somehow pull off the greatest regular-season upset GLB has ever seen, but even that would only drop Melbourne to the #4 seed.
They have to be considered the favorites for the #1 seed, as with their likely points-scored tiebreak suggests even a defeat at the hands of Tonga or Florida Parish would still let them claim the top spot.
Bikini Atoll
Estimated chance of:
Making playoffs (100%)
Home playoff game (100%)
#2 seed (50%)
#1 seed (25%)
The Shrooms are in even better shape than Melbourne as they have the same record and only two games in which they might potentially be defeated. The trouble for them is they'd be considered the underdogs in both games.
They can grab the #1 seed straight up in two weeks by defeating Melbourne. This is likely their only chance to do so, as they would not win either a 2 or 3-way tie at 15-1 with Melbourne. They would need Melbourne to lose a second game and be dropped to the #3 seed in order to leverage their head-to-head tiebreak over Tonga.
Tonga
Estimated chance of:
Making playoffs (100%)
Home playoff game (98%)
#2 seed (40%)
#1 seed (10%)
Tonga has 1 extremely tough game left - Melbourne. A week 16 matchup against Illesheim could also be a battle of equals. They have 2 other games (Ramekins, Wolverines) where they are heavily favored, but have some potential of being defeated. This gives them a wider range of possible results, but even losing all 4 of those games only drops them to 11-5, which is probably enough for a home playoff game, though there is a small chance of it being only good enough for the #5 seed - and a even smaller chance that they will actually drop all 4.
They are hurt at the top by their week 1 single point loss to the Shrooms. Their best case scenario is for both Melbourne and the Sea Dragons to defeat the Shrooms, then they can claim the #1 seed by taking care of business in their remaining games. Melbourne is the greatest threat to this.
There is still a Tonga scenario for #1 or #2 if only Melbourne beats the Shrooms. It involves a three way tie at 15-1 between Melbourne-Tonga-Bikini. Since the tiebreaks are round-robin in this scenario (Tonga over Melbourne over Shrooms over Tonga), it goes to the points-scored tiebreak. Melbourne has a solid - but not insurmountable - lead here and Tonga has a big lead over the Shrooms.
If they go undefeated the rest of the season (including beating Melbourne), then they are nearly assured of at least the #2 spot.
Christchurch
Estimated chance of:
Making playoffs (99.999%)
Home playoff game (33%)
#2 seed (0.001%)
#1 seed (0%)
Christchurch has 4 tough but certainly winnable fights on their hands and then faces almost certain defeat by Melbourne. They'd have to lose all 5 and then drop a even-levelled matchup week 16 to miss the playoffs. Betting against Christchurch versus only modestly higher levelled opponents 4 weeks in a row is a real bad idea.
They have a tiny shot at the #2 seed, but it involves going undefeated the rest of the way (including Melbourne), Tonga dropping two games and Melbourne losing one other. It's made even worse by the fact that someone has to win Melbourne-Tonga, so they either need Tonga to lose to someone they're heavily favored over (Illesheim alone isn't enough) or they need Melbourne to beat Tonga and then lose to Florida Parish.
The real question here revolves around whether or not they can claim the up-for-grabs #4 seed. If they beat the Horsemen this week, they have an excellent shot, in fact I'd probably call them the favorites. On the other hand, they can't outperform their roster forever ... can they?
Horsemen
Estimated chance of:
Making playoffs (100%)
Home playoff game (20%)
#2 seed (0%)
With 4 games which they should dominate, the Horsemen should have no trouble reaching the 9-wins necessary for a playoff invite. Again, the question is if they can claim the #4 spot. With a 3 game deficit vs the undefeateds and a 2-game deficit versus Tonga (and on the wrong side of all three tiebreaks) they have no plausible route to the #2 seed, and only an astronomical chance at #3.
Their chances of home field largely rest on the outcome of this week's battle in Christchurch. If they lose, they'll be down 2 games with CC holding the tiebreaker. It's technically possible for them to come back from that, but I wouldn't bank on CC beating the Horsemen then dropping 3 more. If they win, they'll be in control of their own destiny for homefield, but would need to knock off El Fuego, Dunedin and the Ramekins to lock it up for certain.
Fuego
Estimated chance of:
Making playoffs (98%)
Home playoff game (10%)
#2 seed (0%)
Pretty close to a playoff lock, with games left against Dunedin, Ramekins, the Horsemen and the Bandits, they would need to drop all 4 to miss the playoffs.
They have a small chance of contending for home field. They need the Horsemen to beat Christchurch, and then beat the Horsemen themselves. Then they'll need to do one game better than Christchurch versus the Ramekins, Dunedin, Bandits and Alpha Conference. Given Christchurch's habit of great planning, that likely means going 4-0 against those teams to even have a shot.
North Marinara
Estimated chance of:
Making playoffs (90%)
Home playoff game (3%)
#2 seed (0%)
Losing to Coney Island was huge. They went from being the favorites for the #4 seed to having a small chance of missing the playoffs entirely.
With favorable tiebreaks on Dunedin and the Bandits, their playoff hopes are still very strong, but they let Coney Island back into the picture which means 8-8 won't be enough for them if Dunedin or the Bandits manage 9-7. Fortunately for them, getting to 8-8 is assured and they only need to win one of Tonga, Christchurch, El Fuego, Four Horsemen or Easter Island. While they would not be considered the favorite in any of these except possibly the last, they have a very credible chance in all of them.
There is a doomsday scenario for them at 9-7. If Coney Island and Dunedin both make it to 9-7 with them, one of those 3 teams will miss the playoffs. The round-robin tie breaks will cancel out (you REALLY should have beaten the Warriors, you know!) and points-scored will be the deciding factor. It's too early to tell who finishes third and out of the playoffs in this scenario, but it isn't going to be Dunedin.
Coney Island Warriors
Estimated chance of:
Making playoffs (45%)
Home playoff game (0%)
With 7 teams above this strongly likely to make the playoffs, we are left with 3 teams fighting for 1 spot. The Warriors have the advantage because they play both of the other two, and thus control their own destiny. In fact, they get both of the others in the next two weeks - how awesome is that?
If they win both, they'll be at worst in a three way tie at 6-4 with the other two. Their remaining schedule covers all the extremes - they'll lose for sure to Melbourne and the Shrooms, but would be strongly favored over FPQA, Redscape and Uluru. The last of these may try to play spoiler, but assuming they come up short, this would put the Warriors at 9-6 with tiebreak advantage. That's insurmountable for either the Wolverines or Bandits. The Warriors could even win week 16 and get to 10-6.
However, if they win only one, things get dicey. Their week 16 opponent is also 4-4, and they would need that win to get to 9-7. They'd also need the team they lose against to come up short by winning only two games for the rest of the season and end at 8-8.
If they lose both of the next two games, there is no practical scenario for them to make the playoffs.
Dunedin Wolverines
Estimated chance of:
Making playoffs (40%)
Home playoff game (0%)
With the tiebreak over the Bandits, you'd think they'd have a better shot. However, the last second emergence of Coney Island has the potential to throw a wrench in their season.
If they win against the Warriors this week, games against the Chenabogs and Barbarians should get them to 9 wins with the tiebreak.
Should they fall this week, things are less clear. They would be looking at an expected 8-win finish with no tiebreak. They would need to win two of Fuego, Christchurch, Horsemen and SASK (Alpha) to get back in it. They would not be the favorites in any of these games, though SASK might be close. However, beating any of the others would be a tough task. They can get away with winning only one if the Ramekins only manage 9-7, per the North Marinara Doomsday Scenario.
Chinese Bandits
Estimated chance of:
Making playoffs (20%)
Home playoff game (0%)
They're not done yet! They do need help, though, and can't make the playoffs on their own, unless they can beat the Shrooms or Tonga.
Most importantly, they need Coney Island to take down Dunedin and then lose to them. Any other combination of those two games would require a pair of major upsets (Christchurch and Fuego) or for Dunedin/Coney to blow a game they were supposed to win (Uluru springs to mind).
If they do get the ideal results out of Coney Island, 3 "gimme" games left on the schedule should guarantee them 9-7 with a tiebreak on Coney. All they would need is for Dunedin to fail to upset any of the 4 opponents listed in their section above. They could further secure their spot by performing an upset of their own against El Fuego or Christchurch (meaning Dunedin would have to upset 2 teams).
Last edited Jun 27, 2008 13:17:19
