Here it is! The last week of the season! As a result, we now have the final clinch scenarios. Due to the large number of possibilities, we also have a breakdown of how the seeds could end up. This distribution takes into consideration every possible win/loss outcome which could result in a tiebreaker. Teams are ranked in each seeding from most likely to earn to least likely. Since all playoff spots in the West are clinched, there is no X, or "eliminated" seed. In the east, the X is the probability you are not in the top 8 teams, and thus out of the playoffs.
Since the tiebreakers include all possible scenarios, I will just post the probabilities. If you are curious about a particular scenario, let me know and I can tell you what happens. In the event that tiebreaker goes to points scored, probability is divided equally amongst all tied teams.
Western Conference
1] Fort Richardson (62.5%), Omaha (25%), Las Vegas Aces (12.5%)
2] Omaha (52.07%), Fort Richardson (29.17%), Las Vegas Aces (15.63%), Portland (3.13%)
3] Portland (62.5%), Omaha (20.83%), Las Vegas Aces (9.38%), Fort Richardson (7.29%)
4] Las Vegas Aces (40.63%), Portland (34.38%), Birmingham (21.88%), Omaha (2.08%), Fort Richardson (1.04%)
5] Birmingham (53.13%), Minnesota (25%), Las Vegas Aces (21.88%)
6] Minnesota (75%), Birmingham (25%)
7] Coruscant (62.5%), Panthers (37.5%)
8] Panthers (62.5%), Coruscant (37.5%)
Eastern Conference
1] DC (100%)
2] Cleveland (100%)
3] Dirty South (100%)
4] Tricity (75%), Cincinnati (25%)
5] Cincinnati (75%), Tricity (25%)
6] Indianapolis (50%), Middle Tennessee (25%), East Brewton (25%)
7] Middle Tennessee (45.83%), East Brewton (27.08%), Miami (14.58%), Indianapolis (12.5%)
8] Indianapolis (27.08%), East Brewton (25%), New York (16.67%), Middle Tennessee (14.58%), Miami (10.42%), El Paso (6.25%)
X] El Paso (93.75%), New York (83.33%), Miami (75%), East Brewton (22.92%), Middle Tennessee (14.58%), Indianapolis (10.42%)
Since the tiebreakers include all possible scenarios, I will just post the probabilities. If you are curious about a particular scenario, let me know and I can tell you what happens. In the event that tiebreaker goes to points scored, probability is divided equally amongst all tied teams.
Western Conference
1] Fort Richardson (62.5%), Omaha (25%), Las Vegas Aces (12.5%)
2] Omaha (52.07%), Fort Richardson (29.17%), Las Vegas Aces (15.63%), Portland (3.13%)
3] Portland (62.5%), Omaha (20.83%), Las Vegas Aces (9.38%), Fort Richardson (7.29%)
4] Las Vegas Aces (40.63%), Portland (34.38%), Birmingham (21.88%), Omaha (2.08%), Fort Richardson (1.04%)
5] Birmingham (53.13%), Minnesota (25%), Las Vegas Aces (21.88%)
6] Minnesota (75%), Birmingham (25%)
7] Coruscant (62.5%), Panthers (37.5%)
8] Panthers (62.5%), Coruscant (37.5%)
Eastern Conference
1] DC (100%)
2] Cleveland (100%)
3] Dirty South (100%)
4] Tricity (75%), Cincinnati (25%)
5] Cincinnati (75%), Tricity (25%)
6] Indianapolis (50%), Middle Tennessee (25%), East Brewton (25%)
7] Middle Tennessee (45.83%), East Brewton (27.08%), Miami (14.58%), Indianapolis (12.5%)
8] Indianapolis (27.08%), East Brewton (25%), New York (16.67%), Middle Tennessee (14.58%), Miami (10.42%), El Paso (6.25%)
X] El Paso (93.75%), New York (83.33%), Miami (75%), East Brewton (22.92%), Middle Tennessee (14.58%), Indianapolis (10.42%)
Last edited Dec 10, 2008 17:47:54
