By and in large, the top of the league held serve this round, so not much changes, but the clock keeps ticking on the teams that were on life support,which lead to a couple of alarms ringing the end of hopes...
Methodology:
- Assume a win against any CPU run team
- Assume a win against any team behind you by more than 3 games (so a 7-4 team assumes a victory against a 3-8 team, but a 4-7 team still has a shot).
No additional teams clinched this round, so we're left with 3:
Helsinki
- 12-0 record
- 2 Assumed safe wins ( Iberville, London A)
- Questionable Games: Shadow (15) Koln (16)
- Projected final record: 15-1
- Worst Case: 14-2
- Best case: 16-0
Reykjavik
- 11-1 Record
- 4 Assumed safe wins (South Y, Montana, Dinwiddie, Henry)
- 0 Questionable games
- Projected Final Record 15-1
- Worst Case: 15-1
- Best Case: 15-1
Shadow
- 11-1 record
- 2 Assumed Safe Wins (Oslo, Buffalo)
- 2 Questionable Games: London M (13), Helsniki (15)
- Projected Final Record: 14-2
- Best case: 15-1
- Worst Case: 13-3
Two more teams joined the mathematically eliminated list:
Ukraine A (3-9)
Iberville (3-9)
Joining the three already out,
Buffalo (0-12)
Montana (1-11)
Manchester (1-11)
brings us to 5 teams eliminated
2 teams are still mathematically alive, but need to run the board to make it, which looks unlikely
Henry Patriots - 8 losses and a game against Reykjavik to go leaves them a bit short...but a sweep would get them to 8-8, which still *might* make it if all goes perfectly
London Apes - 5-7 would give them a shot, but CPU control dooms them to a 5-11 final record.
That leaves 6 teams fighting for 5 spots, here they are, ordered by decreasing probability of making it:
London Marlins:
Record: 9-3
Assumed Safe Wins: 1 (Manchester)
Questionable Games: 3 Shadow(13), Koln(14), Oslo (16)
Assumed Losses: 0
Projected Final Record: 11.5-4.5
Best Case: 13-3
Worst Case: 10-6
Odds of making playoffs: 90%
Koln Prowlers
Record: 8-4
Assumed Safe Wins: 1 (Manchester)
Questionable Games: 3 London M (14), Oslo (15), Helsinki (16)
Assumed Losses: 0
Projected Final Record: 10.5-5.5
Best Case: 12-4
Worst Case: 9-7
Odds of making playoffs: 80%
South Yorkshire Scorpions
Record: 7-5
Assumed Safe Wins: 2 (Manchester, Montana)
Questionable Games: 1 (Dinwiddie 16)
Assumed Losses: 1 (Reykjavik)
Projected Final Record: 9.5-6.5
Best Case: 10-6
Worst Case: 9-7
Odds of making playoffs: 70%
Oslo
Record: 7-5
Assumed Safe Wins: 1 (London A)
Questionable Games: 2 (Koln 15, London M 16)
Assumed Losses: 1 (Shadow)
Projected Final Record: 9-7
Best Case: 10-6
Worst Case: 8-8
Odds of making playoffs: 60%
Copenhagen Vikings
Record: 6-6
Assumed Safe Wins: 2 (Iberville, London A)
Questionable Games: 2 (Dinwiddie, Henry)
Assumed Losses: 0
Projected Final Record: 9-7
Best Case: 10-6
Worst Case: 8-8
Odds of making playoffs: 60%
Dinwiddie Dustdevils
Record: 7-5
Assumed Safe Wins: 1 (Ukraine)
Questionable Games: 2 (Copenhagen, South Y)
Assumed Losses: 1 (Reykjavik)
Projected Final Record: 9-7
Best Case: 10-6
Worst Case: 8-8
Odds of making playoffs: 60%
Methodology:
- Assume a win against any CPU run team
- Assume a win against any team behind you by more than 3 games (so a 7-4 team assumes a victory against a 3-8 team, but a 4-7 team still has a shot).
No additional teams clinched this round, so we're left with 3:
Helsinki
- 12-0 record
- 2 Assumed safe wins ( Iberville, London A)
- Questionable Games: Shadow (15) Koln (16)
- Projected final record: 15-1
- Worst Case: 14-2
- Best case: 16-0
Reykjavik
- 11-1 Record
- 4 Assumed safe wins (South Y, Montana, Dinwiddie, Henry)
- 0 Questionable games
- Projected Final Record 15-1
- Worst Case: 15-1
- Best Case: 15-1
Shadow
- 11-1 record
- 2 Assumed Safe Wins (Oslo, Buffalo)
- 2 Questionable Games: London M (13), Helsniki (15)
- Projected Final Record: 14-2
- Best case: 15-1
- Worst Case: 13-3
Two more teams joined the mathematically eliminated list:
Ukraine A (3-9)
Iberville (3-9)
Joining the three already out,
Buffalo (0-12)
Montana (1-11)
Manchester (1-11)
brings us to 5 teams eliminated
2 teams are still mathematically alive, but need to run the board to make it, which looks unlikely
Henry Patriots - 8 losses and a game against Reykjavik to go leaves them a bit short...but a sweep would get them to 8-8, which still *might* make it if all goes perfectly
London Apes - 5-7 would give them a shot, but CPU control dooms them to a 5-11 final record.
That leaves 6 teams fighting for 5 spots, here they are, ordered by decreasing probability of making it:
London Marlins:
Record: 9-3
Assumed Safe Wins: 1 (Manchester)
Questionable Games: 3 Shadow(13), Koln(14), Oslo (16)
Assumed Losses: 0
Projected Final Record: 11.5-4.5
Best Case: 13-3
Worst Case: 10-6
Odds of making playoffs: 90%
Koln Prowlers
Record: 8-4
Assumed Safe Wins: 1 (Manchester)
Questionable Games: 3 London M (14), Oslo (15), Helsinki (16)
Assumed Losses: 0
Projected Final Record: 10.5-5.5
Best Case: 12-4
Worst Case: 9-7
Odds of making playoffs: 80%
South Yorkshire Scorpions
Record: 7-5
Assumed Safe Wins: 2 (Manchester, Montana)
Questionable Games: 1 (Dinwiddie 16)
Assumed Losses: 1 (Reykjavik)
Projected Final Record: 9.5-6.5
Best Case: 10-6
Worst Case: 9-7
Odds of making playoffs: 70%
Oslo
Record: 7-5
Assumed Safe Wins: 1 (London A)
Questionable Games: 2 (Koln 15, London M 16)
Assumed Losses: 1 (Shadow)
Projected Final Record: 9-7
Best Case: 10-6
Worst Case: 8-8
Odds of making playoffs: 60%
Copenhagen Vikings
Record: 6-6
Assumed Safe Wins: 2 (Iberville, London A)
Questionable Games: 2 (Dinwiddie, Henry)
Assumed Losses: 0
Projected Final Record: 9-7
Best Case: 10-6
Worst Case: 8-8
Odds of making playoffs: 60%
Dinwiddie Dustdevils
Record: 7-5
Assumed Safe Wins: 1 (Ukraine)
Questionable Games: 2 (Copenhagen, South Y)
Assumed Losses: 1 (Reykjavik)
Projected Final Record: 9-7
Best Case: 10-6
Worst Case: 8-8
Odds of making playoffs: 60%