Rankings after Week 15 are updated at:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pOUigrsS32wIbCRIlPtowHAThe Rankings Summary for the ALPHA conference:Rank Team - Rating (Change from last week)1 Hattgenstein Volunteers - 15.431 (--)
2 Black Country Knights - 14.717 (--)
3 Belfast Defiance - 14.344 (--)
4 London Aces - 12.681 (--)
5 Maranello Enzos - 12.305 (--)
6 Messina Blazers - 11.576 (--)
7 Soft Fluffy Pancake Bunnies - 10.659 (--)
8 Sinsheim MC Airs - 9.943 (--)
9 Jellystone Park Bruins - 9.181 (--)
10 Roman Revolution - 8.678 (--)
11 Reykjavik Vikings - 8.441 (--)
12 Minot Defenders - 7.545 (--)
13 Tennessee Rattlesnakes - 6.011 (--)
14 Irish Car-Bombers - 5.750 (--)
15 Davenport Tigers - 4.443 (--)
16 Sunderland Charvers - 4.081 (--)
The Rankings Summary for the ZETA conference:Rank Team - Rating (Change from last week)1 Tilburg Lightning - 15.332 (--)
2 Helsinki Crabs - 14.699 (--)
3 Mannheim Jaguars - 14.047 (--)
4 EASTWICK SAVAGES - 12.369 (--)
5 Siena IL PALIO - 12.360 (+1)
6 Denmark Destruction - 12.088 (-1)
7 London Pounds - 11.751 (--)
8 Portuguese Men-of-War - 11.658 (--)
9 Chernobyl Neutrons - 10.711 (--)
10 Berlin Blitzkrieg - 8.484 (--)
11 Trojan Magnums - 7.524 (+1)
12 Brasilia Rockets - 6.954 (-1)
13 EEORG Blood Ninjas - 6.054 (+1)
14 Monte Carlo Maniacs - 5.759 (-1)
15 Milano Xela - 4.552 (--)
16 CROATIAN FLESH EATERS - 3.764 (--)
PLAYOFF PICTURE AND THE UPCOMING GAMES OF THE WEEKAlpha Conference - Most of Alpha knows whether they are in or out of the playoffs, and even what seed they are at. The only question is really who gets the #8 seed, and whether Maranello or London will have home field in round 1. Here's the breakdown for Round 1:
(1)Hattgenstein vs. (8)Jellystone/Sinsheim - The Vols locked up the #1 Alpha seed with their field goal festivities in Week 15. They will face either the MC Airs or Park Bruins, based on what happens this week. Sinsheim controls its destiny, and can lock up the #8 seed with a win against the Enzos. Sinsheim also locks up the #8 seed with a Jellystone loss to the Revolution. However, if Sinsheim can't upset the Enzos, Jellystone can take the #8 seed with a win over the Revolution.
(2)Black Country vs. (7)Soft Fluffies - By my account, no matter what BCK or SFPB does this week, I think they retain the #2 and #7 seeds, respectively.
(3)Belfast vs. (6)Messina - Same thing here, Belfast or Messina can win or lose and still stay in the #3 and #6 spots.
(4)London/Maranello vs. (5)Maranello/London - London should have the #4 seed and home field against the Enzos, and locks that position with a win over Messina this week. With an Aces loss, the Enzos can take home field advantage with their expected win over Sinsheim.
Zeta Conference - Zeta isn't quite as set as Alpha, but it's not too complex either. It all comes down to what happens in the
EASTWICK at Denmark and
Siena at Portuguese games. Basically, there are four scenarios available: (1)Siena and EASTWICK win; (2)Siena and Denmark win; (3)Portuguese and EASTWICK win; and (4) Portuguese and Denmark win. With those scenarios, here's what it looks like will happen:
(1)Tilburg vs. (8)London - Even if Tilburg loses to Mannheim, they are still guaranteed the #1 spot. They are also looking at a rematch of their 4-point victory in Week 14 as London is guaranteed the #8 spot (by virtue of a win over Chernobyl and losses to the Men-of-War and Destruction)
(2)Helsinki vs. (7)Portuguese/Denmark/EASTWICK - With the four scenarios above, the Men-of-War are the odds-on favorites to get the #7 seed, as any of scenarios 1, 2, or 4 could put them there. (Scenario 3 gives them the #5 seed). Effectively, if the Men-of-War lose, they will definitely take the #7 seed by virtue of the loss Denmark (EASTWICK and Siena would definitely have a better record if the MoW lose). If the Men-of-War win and Denmark wins, then Siena, Portuguese, EASTWICK, and Denmark will all be 11-5. In that case, Siena and Denmark would get the 4 and 5 seeds by having two wins over tied opponents. The MoW and SAVAGES would get 6 and 7 based on points scored, where EASTWICK currently holds just over a 61 point edge. Short of scoring a load of points against Siena and having EASTWICK's offense being shut down by Denmark, the only way that the Men-of-War stay out of the #7 seed is to win against Siena and have EASTWICK beat Denmark, which would put Denmark at 10-6 and give them the #7 seed and the MOW would get the #5 seed at 11-5.
(3)Mannheim vs. (6)EASTWICK/Denmark/Siena - Mannheim gets the third seed regardless of the outcome with Tilburg. No matter what else happens, an EASTWICK loss to Denmark will also guarantee EASTWICK the #6 seed. If the SAVAGES win, however, they will be guaranteed either the #4 or $5 seed, and the #6 seed will instead go to Denmark (if Siena wins) or to Siena (if the Portuguese win).
(4)Siena/Denmark/EASTWICK vs. (5)Denmark/EASTWICK/Siena - Siena is in the driver's seat for the #4 seed, and could realistically end up there in two of the four scenarios above (i.e., scenarios 1, 2, although technically they could get there with the 4th scenario, but they would have to score massive points). Specifically, if Siena wins (i.e., scenarios 1 or 2) they are guaranteed the #4 spot since EASTWICK is the only team that could have the same record, and Siena holds the head-to-head tiebreaker. In the scenarios where Siena wins, EASTWICK would take the #5 seed if the SAVAGES win, and Denmark the #5 seed if the Destruction wins in their Week 16 matchup. In Scenario 4, where all teams finish with the same record, Siena and Denmark would have 2 wins over tied opponents, but Denmark has outscored Siena by almost 350 points this season and would virtually be assured the #4 seed, while Siena would get the #5 seed. In Scenario 3, where the Portuguese and EASTWICK win, EASTWICK would be the lone team to finish at 12-4 and would take the fourth seed, while a Portuguese win would give them the #5 seed.
Alpha Game of the Week: - For all the reasons noted above, it is:
Roman Revolution at Jellystone - Line: Jellystone by 6.
Zeta Games of the Week: - Also for the reasons noted above, they are:
EASTWICK at Denmark - Line: EASTWICK by 2.
Siena at Portuguese - Line: Siena by 4.
