Good evening, everyone! Week 12 went very much according to schedule, so much so that I was off by just one point on the Chinese/Mauna Kea game and that I was perfect on the Redscape/Cimmerian tango. One result we have from Week 12 is that there’s a little more breathing room among the playoff contenders, especially among the group who was previously at 7-4. The top two teams in Zeta, Tonga and Christchurch, continued their march toward multiple home-field playoff games; the Tonga Thunderbirds now stand at a perfect 12-0, while the Christchurch Knightmares are now 11-1. El Fuego and the Chinese Bandits kept their one-game lead on 3rd and 4th respectively after moving to 9-3 on a pair of convincing victories of their own. The Solomon Islands Alchemy and The Four Horsemen took a step forward this week, winning their games to move their record to 8-4 to occupy 5th and 6th, respectively. Conversely, the Mauna Kea Chenabogs and Dunedin Wolverines took a step back, losing their games this week to fall to 7-5 and remain in 7th and 8th, respectively. The Tasmania Devils won this week to even their record at 6-6 and give themselves sole possession of 9th. The Uluru Rockies lost their 3rd-straight game this week, while the Redscape Diplomats have kept themselves in it by winning their 4th-straight; both teams are at 5-7 and are 10th and 11th, respectively. The Coney Island Warriors fall out of the picture with their loss this week, as their playoff chances are now microscopically small. Just 4 games to go in this season to decide the playoff fates for these teams: how will everything shake down this week? Stay tuned!
Games left: 4
Z: clinched home-field throughout the playoffs
Y: clinched 1st-round home playoff game
X: clinched playoff birth
Standings:
1-X: Tonga Thunderbirds, 12-0
2-X: Christchurch Knightmares, 11-1
3: El Fuego, 9-3
4: Chinese Bandits, 9-3
5: Solomon Islands Alchemy, 8-4
6: The Four Horsemen, 8-4
7: Mauna Kea Chenabogs, 7-5
8: Dunedin Wolverines, 7-5
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9: Tasmania Devils, 6-6
10: Uluru Rockies, 5-7
11: Redscape Diplomats, 5-7
Team scenarios:
1. Tonga Thunderbirds: 1st, 12-0
The playoff-bound Thunderbirds just need one more win to clinch the first of what might appear to be multiple playoff games for Season 5. Last week, the Thunderbirds showed no mercy in their revenge for last year’s loss to Dunedin Wolverines, clubbing them 63-20 behind a volatile Thunderbirds offense and an unusual tactical setting by Dunedin’s offense. This week, the Thunderbirds should very handily lock up at least one home field playoff game as they travel to face the fledgling Los Cabolo Sharks; this is a game is pretty much a lock, as Cabolo has allowed under triple digits just 3 times in 12 games. In Week 14, the Thunderbirds host the strong AA#2 newcomers, the Solomon Islands Alchemy; even though the Alchemy have earned a lot of respect through their solid gameplanning and their formidable roster, I still see the Thunderbirds winning by about a two-touchdown margin. The week after, Tonga will travel to face the Redscape Diplomats in the Zeta finale; I do not believe Redscape will be strong enough to compete for the victory, as Tonga should be able to roll to a 20+ score win against the Diplomats. The Week 16 Alpha showdown is a challenging one, as the Thunderbirds travel to the Outback to face a difficult Alice Springs Fire squad; the Fire has earned a lot of respect in AA#2 this season with their impressive performances, but I believe Tonga closes the deal in Week 16, winning by two scores. Tonga’s road is not the easiest to close out this season, but a 4-0 close seems likely, giving them home-field throughout the Zeta playoffs and a big target on their backs.
Predicted finish: 16-0, 1st
2. Christchurch Knightmares: 2nd, 11-1
Barring two losses by the Tonga Thunderbirds in the final 4 games, Christchurch is looking squarely at the #2-seed in the playoffs this season, perhaps setting up a huge showdown in the Zeta Conference title game. Last week, Christchurch did their part, revving up their offense in blasting the poor Uluru Rockies 56-7 and clinching a playoff berth for Season 5! This week, the Knightmares battle the Tasmania Sand Gnats at home; I foresee a 20+ point win for the Knightmares, who just flat out have much superior talent than the Sand Gnats. In Week 14, the Knightmares set sail to take on the Dunedin Wolverines in a big contest that is the “Game of the Week” that week; I predict that Christchurch will win the game by two-scores, but Dunedin has to be steaming over the loss to Tonga, and no time is better than the present for an upset. The following week, Christchurch hosts the Mauna Kea Chenabogs to close out their Zeta slate; the Chenabogs offense may be high-octane, but the Christchurch defense is like pure moonshine: I see a two-touchdown victory ahead for the Knightmares. In Week 16, Christchurch travels to face the Thatto Heath Teeth Smashers in another testing Alpha draw; the Teeth Smashers are on upset alert for this week, but I still believe the Knightmares may very well emerge victorious by a couple of scores. Christchurch will likely close out their season 4-0, but the road’s not perfectly smooth.
Predicted finish: 15-1, 2nd
3. El Fuego: 3rd, 9-3
Of the two teams at 9-3, Fuego has the upper hand over the Chinese Bandits; however, Fuego also has the most difficult closing schedule. Last week, Fuego did exactly what they had to do, mauling the Brisbane Brown Bears at their place 162-0. This week, Fuego hosts the Cimmerian Barbarians in a showdown; Cimmerian hasn’t shown very much of the flare that took them to the playoffs last season, and I expect a multiple-score Fuego victory in this one. In Week 14, Fuego goes on the road to duel the Coney Island Warriors; Coney Island has had a rough go of it lately, but Fuego will do their part to ensure that this continues, likely winning by about three scores. The following week, Fuego closes its Zeta schedule at home against the Tasmania Devils; the Devils have done quite admirably since their Season 4 promotion, but I see Fuego using their extra season of experience to lead them to a two-score victory. In Week 16, Fuego gets an oddly coincidental Alpha draw in a home showdown again the Tasmanian Devils; these teams are VERY closely matched, as evidenced by their preseason game, but I think the Devils have the slightest of advantages this week and fight hard for a one-score victory . The difference between 4-0 and 3-1 is HUGE for Fuego. Win them all, and get a home playoff game and a possible 2nd-round playoff game against Christchurch. Lose it, and they’re likely on the wrong side of a tiebreak with The Four Horsemen (thanks to the Week 9 41-27 loss), and they face Tonga in Round 2. I think the latter is slightly more likely.
Predicted finish: 12-4, 5th
4. Chinese Bandits: 4th, 9-3
Although the Bandits lost to El Fuego in a 51-45 shootout in Week 8, I think they’re still in great shape for a first-round home playoff game, thanks to an easier later schedule. Last week, the Bandits were just one point away from making me look like a genius as they had more firepower than the struggling Mauna Kea Chenabogs in a 42-27 Chinese victory. This week, the Bandits host the Brisbane Brown Bears; as the many teams before them, I expect a virtual-lock this game, as the Bandits will very likely put up a big triple-digit score on Brisbane. In Week 14, the Bandits will hit the road to face the Cimmerian Barbarians; yet again, I see a multi-score victory for the Bandits, as Cimmerian just doesn’t have it this season. The following week, the Bandits look for their sixth-straight victory when they travel to face off against Coney Island Warriors in the Zeta finale; I see a three-score win in the Bandits future, as Coney Island has just been hit hard this season. In Week 16, the Bandits get an uncharacteristically easier Alpha draw, as the Vanuatu Gunslingers ride into China; I see a rather lopsided multi-score victory for the Bandits. 4-0 and seven consecutive victories looks likely for the Bandits, as they have one of the easiest remaining schedules in all the league!
Predicted finish: 13-3, 3rd
5. Solomon Islands Alchemy: 5th, 8-4
The promoted Alchemy have done quite well for themselves so far this year; they’re currently at 8-4, and barring a huge collapse, they’ll make the playoffs in their first promoted season. The Alchemy are in the position they are due to strong wins like their 39-6 whipping of Coney Island last week. This week, the Alchemy will host the Tasmania Devils in the “Season 4 Promoted Teams Bowl”, my “Game of the Week”; Tasmania has stunned some teams around this league with their defensive quality, though I believe that the Alchemy is the better team here, and I see a two-touchdown victory to affirm this. In Week 14, the Alchemy set sail for Tonga to take on the undefeated Thunderbirds; I really do think Solomon Islands make this one interesting, but I still see a strong two-touchdown victory for the favored Thunderbirds. The following week, the Alchemy host the Uluru Rockies in their Zeta finale; Uluru has decent talent, but the Alchemy are just too strong and deep here, and I expect a three-score victory here to prove that. The Easter Island Moai roll into town in the Week 16 Alpha matchup for the Alchemy; this game makes me think about flipping my previous prediction, but I am still choosing the Moai to win this one in a VERY close dogfight. 2-2 won’t be a terrible way to end the regular season; however, a win in Week 16 would have the Alchemy at 6th, as the Dunedin Wolverines would have the #7-seed in these predictions, based on the Week 1 23-20 defeat of the Alchemy.
Predicted finish: 10-6, 7th
6. The Four Horsemen: 6th, 8-4
The Horsemen get bumped up to 6th this week, as they now start to encounter a much easier schedule; however, their Week 7 26-19 loss to the Alchemy has them below Solomon Islands at this point. Last week, the Horsemen ended a two game skid by slamming the weaker Tasmania Sand Gnats 65-17 in a game that was predicted to be rough. This week, the Horsemen host Mauna Kea in a meeting of playoff contenders; Mauna Kea’s offense is strong, but the Horsemen have a complete package on that team, and I expect a high-scoring, two-score win for the Horsemen. In Week 14, the Horsemen travel to Brisbane to square off against the Brown Bears; as is the custom, sadly, the Horsemen will be favored by well over 100 points in this affair. The schedule continues to favor the Horsemen, as they close out their Zeta slate the following week at home against the Cimmerian Barbarians; I see a trend forming here, as I think the Horsemen glide to an easy three-score victory against the Barbarians. The Horsemen also get a favorable Alpha draw as they host The Throwback Cowboys in Week 16; the Cowboys have improved quite a bit as the season has went along, but I still see a two-touchdown victory for the Horsemen here. The Horsemen now get to enjoy an easier schedule, and thanks to the 41-27 win over El Fuego in Week 9, with one Fuego loss, the Horsemen may get their home playoff game this year!
Predicted finish: 12-4, 4th
7. Mauna Kea Chenabogs: 7th, 7-5
When I think of the Mauna Kea Chenabogs, I think of the old Paul Simon song “Slipsliding Away”; that’s exactly what the Chenabogs have done, as they’ve consistently slid down the league standings. The Chenabogs dropped their 4th straight game last week, falling 42-27 at the hands of the Chinese Bandits. This week, the road continues to be rocky for the Chenabogs as they The road just gets darker as they travel to the Four Horsemen in Week 13 for a big clash; for the fifth straight time, I believe the Chenabogs will fall, as the Horsemen look to be about two-score favorites in this one. However, in Week 14, I see this losing streak ending as the Chenabogs do battle against the Tasmania Sand Gnats at home; I know the Chenabogs morale will be aching in this game, but I’d have to believe that the Chenabogs would pull a two-score victory out here. However, the following week sees the Chenabogs right back to their difficult schedule as they travel to New Zealand to face the Christchurch Knightmares; the Chenabog offense is just no match for this Christchurch defense, and I see the Knightmares prevailing by three scores. In their darkest hour, the Chenabogs get a gift-wrapped game in Week 16, as they face the relegation-bound Williamsport Soul Reavers at home; I’d predict a huge margin of victory in this one, as the Chenabogs offense is rather potent. It’s hard to believe that this team has fallen THIS far after a 7-1 start, but 9-7 should be enough to get Mauna Kea into the playoffs this season for the first time ever, granted that they don’t drop one of two gift-wrapped games; boy, does that 38-33 win over Dunedin in Week 7 look BIG now…
Predicted finish: 9-7, 8th
8. Dunedin Wolverines: 8th, 7-5
Dunedin, although they are in the #8-spot right now, have a fairly nice closing schedule with which to fight their way up as high as 6th, realistically. Last week turned out to be a minor disaster, as the “pass every down and never punt” strategy failed badly; only one long pass burned the Thunderbirds secondary in a 63-20 shellacking. This week, Dunedin hosts the Uluru Rockies for a battle; Dunedin has to be fuming over last week, and Uluru’s been snakebitten lately, so I see a three-score margin of victory for the Wolverines here. However, Week 14 doesn’t look as promising, as the Wolverines welcome the imposing Christchurch Knightmares; Dunedin is better than many give them credit for, but I think Christchurch is just far too strong, and I see a 10-14 point Knightmares victory in that “Game of the Week”. Dunedin closes out their Zeta slate the following week by traveling to the relegation-destined Los Cabolo Sharks; the Sharks just don’t have the personnel to compete at the AA level, and I see a big triple-digit victory by Dunedin in this matchup. In Week 16, Dunedin gets a very favorable Alpha draw as they head to do battle with the South Australian Serial Killers; Dunedin should be the one slaying the Killers, as a two-score to three-score victory is in the cards. 3-1 looks like the probably stretch run for the Wolverines, who will only get better; however, there is some good news here, as the Wolverines would propel over the Solomon Islands Alchemy by virtue of their Week 1 23-20 win, given that both finish 10-6.
Predicted finish: 10-6, 6th
9. Tasmania Devils: 9th, 6-6
Tasmania is the first team outside the playoff race, and their hopes are looking a shade bleak as the teams above them tend to have much easier schedules than they do; however, one slip by a team such as Mauna Kea, and a couple of upsets here, and it’s not impossible to see Tasmania in the playoffs. Last week, the Devils took care of business, positively rolling the helpless Los Cabolo Sharks 133-10. This week, however, the Devils take a trip to the Solomon Islands Alchemy to square off in the “Season 4 Promotion Bowl” in my game of the week; I think the Alchemy will be two-score favorites in this game, but with an A+ game, a lot of willpower, and a little luck, I don’t think it’s impossible for Tasmania to pull the upset here. In Week 14, the Devils host the Redscape Diplomats for a showdown; the Devils will likely win this one by at least two scores, and this puts the Devils at .500 with 2 weeks to go. However, the week after, Tasmania closes out its Zeta slate by dueling El Fuego on the road; I just think El Fuego has too much depth and talent, and I see Fuego getting a two-touchdown victory in this game. In Week 16, the Devils are faced with an interesting Alpha draw, as they go on the road to face the Darwin Mud Crabs; on paper, this one looks to be rather close and an upset isn’t out of the question here, but I still favor Darwin by about 10 points here. 1-3 looks to be the likely path the Devils will take, and that leaves them two games shy of the playoffs; however, the best-case scenario is 3-1, and if Mauna Kea gets upset, this could get really dicey come Week 16!
Predicted finish: 7-9, 9th
10. Uluru Rockies: 10th, 5-7
Last year’s playoff newcomers really have their backs to the wall now, and they’re looking down a very imposing schedule to boot; they truly need to win all their remaining games to have any sort of shot at the playoffs and to stay in these rankings. Last week, Christchurch came into Uluru and absolutely mauled the Rockies, 56-7. This week, the road won’t get much easier, as the Rockies travel to Dunedin to take on the playoff-hopeful Wolverines; I think Dunedin just has too much talent and too much morale for Uluru to keep this game very competitive, and I see Dunedin winning by a two-score margin at the very least. However, Week 14 brings some rest for the weary, as the Los Cabolo Sharks come to town for Uluru’s final home game in Season 5; Uluru should blow out the poor Sharks, and may very well put up triple digits doing so. The following week, however, the Rockies hit the road to battle the Solomon Islands Alchemy in their Zeta finale; the solid Alchemy should be favored by two scores over Uluru, as they just have too much talent for Uluru to cope with. In Week 16, the Rockies get a positively brutal Alpha draw of all, meeting the Sydney Sea Dragons in Sydney for a showdown; the Dragons are arguably the best team in Zeta and perhaps the whole league; I just do not see how Uluru keeps this one closer than three scores. Perfection might not even get Uluru into the playoffs, and a 1-3 finish sure won’t.
Predicted finish: 6-10, 11th
11. Redscape Diplomats: 11th, 5-7
Redscape is in as equally dire a situation as Uluru, but the fact that they’re still clinging to life in the Zeta Playoff Picture after a 1-7 start is something to truly be proud of. Last week, the Diplomats made me look like a genius, as they defeated the Cimmerian Barbarians 38-28, exactly by 10 points as I had claimed they would! This week, the Diplomats will host recently-eliminated-from-the-Playoff-Picture Coney Island Warriors at home; this game will be hotly contested, and after further review, I’m going to change my prediction on this one to a Redscape 7-point win, as Redscape has won 4 straight and the Warriors have lost 6 of 7. In Week 14, the Diplomats fly down to Tasmania to rumble with the Devils; though Redscape may have won 6-in-a-row by this time, I still think that Tasmania should win this game by about 10 points. The following week, the Diplomats host what may be the most dangerous team in Zeta this season, the Tonga Thunderbirds; Tonga will likely glide to a three-score victory or better, but if Redscape comes in having won 6 or, with a big upset, 7 games in a row, this one could perhaps be a shade closer than that. In Week 16, the Diplomats get a desirable Alpha matchup with the Manilla Gorillaz; Redscape truly has the better team here, and they should prevail by a couple of scores. I see Redscape going likely 2-2 to end this season, but only 4-0 *might* be good enough; the Tasmania game still looms large for final seeding, if everything plays out as I think. Still, who could’ve seen this when Redscape was 1-7?
Predicted finish: 7-9, 10th
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I'm very happy to see the support for these, and I’m glad you like them as much as I enjoy learning about the teams and bringing them to you. I may have the chance to start an Alpha soon, but I have quite the busy week at the law school, the busiest I’ll have until exam week. As always, I mean no team any disrespect, but I just call the games as I see them. I wish each team the best of luck in its playoff hunt; I can’t wait to see how this playoff race shakes down. I'll be back with a whole new batch for Pre-Week 14!
Games left: 4
Z: clinched home-field throughout the playoffs
Y: clinched 1st-round home playoff game
X: clinched playoff birth
Standings:
1-X: Tonga Thunderbirds, 12-0
2-X: Christchurch Knightmares, 11-1
3: El Fuego, 9-3
4: Chinese Bandits, 9-3
5: Solomon Islands Alchemy, 8-4
6: The Four Horsemen, 8-4
7: Mauna Kea Chenabogs, 7-5
8: Dunedin Wolverines, 7-5
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9: Tasmania Devils, 6-6
10: Uluru Rockies, 5-7
11: Redscape Diplomats, 5-7
Team scenarios:
1. Tonga Thunderbirds: 1st, 12-0
The playoff-bound Thunderbirds just need one more win to clinch the first of what might appear to be multiple playoff games for Season 5. Last week, the Thunderbirds showed no mercy in their revenge for last year’s loss to Dunedin Wolverines, clubbing them 63-20 behind a volatile Thunderbirds offense and an unusual tactical setting by Dunedin’s offense. This week, the Thunderbirds should very handily lock up at least one home field playoff game as they travel to face the fledgling Los Cabolo Sharks; this is a game is pretty much a lock, as Cabolo has allowed under triple digits just 3 times in 12 games. In Week 14, the Thunderbirds host the strong AA#2 newcomers, the Solomon Islands Alchemy; even though the Alchemy have earned a lot of respect through their solid gameplanning and their formidable roster, I still see the Thunderbirds winning by about a two-touchdown margin. The week after, Tonga will travel to face the Redscape Diplomats in the Zeta finale; I do not believe Redscape will be strong enough to compete for the victory, as Tonga should be able to roll to a 20+ score win against the Diplomats. The Week 16 Alpha showdown is a challenging one, as the Thunderbirds travel to the Outback to face a difficult Alice Springs Fire squad; the Fire has earned a lot of respect in AA#2 this season with their impressive performances, but I believe Tonga closes the deal in Week 16, winning by two scores. Tonga’s road is not the easiest to close out this season, but a 4-0 close seems likely, giving them home-field throughout the Zeta playoffs and a big target on their backs.
Predicted finish: 16-0, 1st
2. Christchurch Knightmares: 2nd, 11-1
Barring two losses by the Tonga Thunderbirds in the final 4 games, Christchurch is looking squarely at the #2-seed in the playoffs this season, perhaps setting up a huge showdown in the Zeta Conference title game. Last week, Christchurch did their part, revving up their offense in blasting the poor Uluru Rockies 56-7 and clinching a playoff berth for Season 5! This week, the Knightmares battle the Tasmania Sand Gnats at home; I foresee a 20+ point win for the Knightmares, who just flat out have much superior talent than the Sand Gnats. In Week 14, the Knightmares set sail to take on the Dunedin Wolverines in a big contest that is the “Game of the Week” that week; I predict that Christchurch will win the game by two-scores, but Dunedin has to be steaming over the loss to Tonga, and no time is better than the present for an upset. The following week, Christchurch hosts the Mauna Kea Chenabogs to close out their Zeta slate; the Chenabogs offense may be high-octane, but the Christchurch defense is like pure moonshine: I see a two-touchdown victory ahead for the Knightmares. In Week 16, Christchurch travels to face the Thatto Heath Teeth Smashers in another testing Alpha draw; the Teeth Smashers are on upset alert for this week, but I still believe the Knightmares may very well emerge victorious by a couple of scores. Christchurch will likely close out their season 4-0, but the road’s not perfectly smooth.
Predicted finish: 15-1, 2nd
3. El Fuego: 3rd, 9-3
Of the two teams at 9-3, Fuego has the upper hand over the Chinese Bandits; however, Fuego also has the most difficult closing schedule. Last week, Fuego did exactly what they had to do, mauling the Brisbane Brown Bears at their place 162-0. This week, Fuego hosts the Cimmerian Barbarians in a showdown; Cimmerian hasn’t shown very much of the flare that took them to the playoffs last season, and I expect a multiple-score Fuego victory in this one. In Week 14, Fuego goes on the road to duel the Coney Island Warriors; Coney Island has had a rough go of it lately, but Fuego will do their part to ensure that this continues, likely winning by about three scores. The following week, Fuego closes its Zeta schedule at home against the Tasmania Devils; the Devils have done quite admirably since their Season 4 promotion, but I see Fuego using their extra season of experience to lead them to a two-score victory. In Week 16, Fuego gets an oddly coincidental Alpha draw in a home showdown again the Tasmanian Devils; these teams are VERY closely matched, as evidenced by their preseason game, but I think the Devils have the slightest of advantages this week and fight hard for a one-score victory . The difference between 4-0 and 3-1 is HUGE for Fuego. Win them all, and get a home playoff game and a possible 2nd-round playoff game against Christchurch. Lose it, and they’re likely on the wrong side of a tiebreak with The Four Horsemen (thanks to the Week 9 41-27 loss), and they face Tonga in Round 2. I think the latter is slightly more likely.
Predicted finish: 12-4, 5th
4. Chinese Bandits: 4th, 9-3
Although the Bandits lost to El Fuego in a 51-45 shootout in Week 8, I think they’re still in great shape for a first-round home playoff game, thanks to an easier later schedule. Last week, the Bandits were just one point away from making me look like a genius as they had more firepower than the struggling Mauna Kea Chenabogs in a 42-27 Chinese victory. This week, the Bandits host the Brisbane Brown Bears; as the many teams before them, I expect a virtual-lock this game, as the Bandits will very likely put up a big triple-digit score on Brisbane. In Week 14, the Bandits will hit the road to face the Cimmerian Barbarians; yet again, I see a multi-score victory for the Bandits, as Cimmerian just doesn’t have it this season. The following week, the Bandits look for their sixth-straight victory when they travel to face off against Coney Island Warriors in the Zeta finale; I see a three-score win in the Bandits future, as Coney Island has just been hit hard this season. In Week 16, the Bandits get an uncharacteristically easier Alpha draw, as the Vanuatu Gunslingers ride into China; I see a rather lopsided multi-score victory for the Bandits. 4-0 and seven consecutive victories looks likely for the Bandits, as they have one of the easiest remaining schedules in all the league!
Predicted finish: 13-3, 3rd
5. Solomon Islands Alchemy: 5th, 8-4
The promoted Alchemy have done quite well for themselves so far this year; they’re currently at 8-4, and barring a huge collapse, they’ll make the playoffs in their first promoted season. The Alchemy are in the position they are due to strong wins like their 39-6 whipping of Coney Island last week. This week, the Alchemy will host the Tasmania Devils in the “Season 4 Promoted Teams Bowl”, my “Game of the Week”; Tasmania has stunned some teams around this league with their defensive quality, though I believe that the Alchemy is the better team here, and I see a two-touchdown victory to affirm this. In Week 14, the Alchemy set sail for Tonga to take on the undefeated Thunderbirds; I really do think Solomon Islands make this one interesting, but I still see a strong two-touchdown victory for the favored Thunderbirds. The following week, the Alchemy host the Uluru Rockies in their Zeta finale; Uluru has decent talent, but the Alchemy are just too strong and deep here, and I expect a three-score victory here to prove that. The Easter Island Moai roll into town in the Week 16 Alpha matchup for the Alchemy; this game makes me think about flipping my previous prediction, but I am still choosing the Moai to win this one in a VERY close dogfight. 2-2 won’t be a terrible way to end the regular season; however, a win in Week 16 would have the Alchemy at 6th, as the Dunedin Wolverines would have the #7-seed in these predictions, based on the Week 1 23-20 defeat of the Alchemy.
Predicted finish: 10-6, 7th
6. The Four Horsemen: 6th, 8-4
The Horsemen get bumped up to 6th this week, as they now start to encounter a much easier schedule; however, their Week 7 26-19 loss to the Alchemy has them below Solomon Islands at this point. Last week, the Horsemen ended a two game skid by slamming the weaker Tasmania Sand Gnats 65-17 in a game that was predicted to be rough. This week, the Horsemen host Mauna Kea in a meeting of playoff contenders; Mauna Kea’s offense is strong, but the Horsemen have a complete package on that team, and I expect a high-scoring, two-score win for the Horsemen. In Week 14, the Horsemen travel to Brisbane to square off against the Brown Bears; as is the custom, sadly, the Horsemen will be favored by well over 100 points in this affair. The schedule continues to favor the Horsemen, as they close out their Zeta slate the following week at home against the Cimmerian Barbarians; I see a trend forming here, as I think the Horsemen glide to an easy three-score victory against the Barbarians. The Horsemen also get a favorable Alpha draw as they host The Throwback Cowboys in Week 16; the Cowboys have improved quite a bit as the season has went along, but I still see a two-touchdown victory for the Horsemen here. The Horsemen now get to enjoy an easier schedule, and thanks to the 41-27 win over El Fuego in Week 9, with one Fuego loss, the Horsemen may get their home playoff game this year!
Predicted finish: 12-4, 4th
7. Mauna Kea Chenabogs: 7th, 7-5
When I think of the Mauna Kea Chenabogs, I think of the old Paul Simon song “Slipsliding Away”; that’s exactly what the Chenabogs have done, as they’ve consistently slid down the league standings. The Chenabogs dropped their 4th straight game last week, falling 42-27 at the hands of the Chinese Bandits. This week, the road continues to be rocky for the Chenabogs as they The road just gets darker as they travel to the Four Horsemen in Week 13 for a big clash; for the fifth straight time, I believe the Chenabogs will fall, as the Horsemen look to be about two-score favorites in this one. However, in Week 14, I see this losing streak ending as the Chenabogs do battle against the Tasmania Sand Gnats at home; I know the Chenabogs morale will be aching in this game, but I’d have to believe that the Chenabogs would pull a two-score victory out here. However, the following week sees the Chenabogs right back to their difficult schedule as they travel to New Zealand to face the Christchurch Knightmares; the Chenabog offense is just no match for this Christchurch defense, and I see the Knightmares prevailing by three scores. In their darkest hour, the Chenabogs get a gift-wrapped game in Week 16, as they face the relegation-bound Williamsport Soul Reavers at home; I’d predict a huge margin of victory in this one, as the Chenabogs offense is rather potent. It’s hard to believe that this team has fallen THIS far after a 7-1 start, but 9-7 should be enough to get Mauna Kea into the playoffs this season for the first time ever, granted that they don’t drop one of two gift-wrapped games; boy, does that 38-33 win over Dunedin in Week 7 look BIG now…
Predicted finish: 9-7, 8th
8. Dunedin Wolverines: 8th, 7-5
Dunedin, although they are in the #8-spot right now, have a fairly nice closing schedule with which to fight their way up as high as 6th, realistically. Last week turned out to be a minor disaster, as the “pass every down and never punt” strategy failed badly; only one long pass burned the Thunderbirds secondary in a 63-20 shellacking. This week, Dunedin hosts the Uluru Rockies for a battle; Dunedin has to be fuming over last week, and Uluru’s been snakebitten lately, so I see a three-score margin of victory for the Wolverines here. However, Week 14 doesn’t look as promising, as the Wolverines welcome the imposing Christchurch Knightmares; Dunedin is better than many give them credit for, but I think Christchurch is just far too strong, and I see a 10-14 point Knightmares victory in that “Game of the Week”. Dunedin closes out their Zeta slate the following week by traveling to the relegation-destined Los Cabolo Sharks; the Sharks just don’t have the personnel to compete at the AA level, and I see a big triple-digit victory by Dunedin in this matchup. In Week 16, Dunedin gets a very favorable Alpha draw as they head to do battle with the South Australian Serial Killers; Dunedin should be the one slaying the Killers, as a two-score to three-score victory is in the cards. 3-1 looks like the probably stretch run for the Wolverines, who will only get better; however, there is some good news here, as the Wolverines would propel over the Solomon Islands Alchemy by virtue of their Week 1 23-20 win, given that both finish 10-6.
Predicted finish: 10-6, 6th
9. Tasmania Devils: 9th, 6-6
Tasmania is the first team outside the playoff race, and their hopes are looking a shade bleak as the teams above them tend to have much easier schedules than they do; however, one slip by a team such as Mauna Kea, and a couple of upsets here, and it’s not impossible to see Tasmania in the playoffs. Last week, the Devils took care of business, positively rolling the helpless Los Cabolo Sharks 133-10. This week, however, the Devils take a trip to the Solomon Islands Alchemy to square off in the “Season 4 Promotion Bowl” in my game of the week; I think the Alchemy will be two-score favorites in this game, but with an A+ game, a lot of willpower, and a little luck, I don’t think it’s impossible for Tasmania to pull the upset here. In Week 14, the Devils host the Redscape Diplomats for a showdown; the Devils will likely win this one by at least two scores, and this puts the Devils at .500 with 2 weeks to go. However, the week after, Tasmania closes out its Zeta slate by dueling El Fuego on the road; I just think El Fuego has too much depth and talent, and I see Fuego getting a two-touchdown victory in this game. In Week 16, the Devils are faced with an interesting Alpha draw, as they go on the road to face the Darwin Mud Crabs; on paper, this one looks to be rather close and an upset isn’t out of the question here, but I still favor Darwin by about 10 points here. 1-3 looks to be the likely path the Devils will take, and that leaves them two games shy of the playoffs; however, the best-case scenario is 3-1, and if Mauna Kea gets upset, this could get really dicey come Week 16!
Predicted finish: 7-9, 9th
10. Uluru Rockies: 10th, 5-7
Last year’s playoff newcomers really have their backs to the wall now, and they’re looking down a very imposing schedule to boot; they truly need to win all their remaining games to have any sort of shot at the playoffs and to stay in these rankings. Last week, Christchurch came into Uluru and absolutely mauled the Rockies, 56-7. This week, the road won’t get much easier, as the Rockies travel to Dunedin to take on the playoff-hopeful Wolverines; I think Dunedin just has too much talent and too much morale for Uluru to keep this game very competitive, and I see Dunedin winning by a two-score margin at the very least. However, Week 14 brings some rest for the weary, as the Los Cabolo Sharks come to town for Uluru’s final home game in Season 5; Uluru should blow out the poor Sharks, and may very well put up triple digits doing so. The following week, however, the Rockies hit the road to battle the Solomon Islands Alchemy in their Zeta finale; the solid Alchemy should be favored by two scores over Uluru, as they just have too much talent for Uluru to cope with. In Week 16, the Rockies get a positively brutal Alpha draw of all, meeting the Sydney Sea Dragons in Sydney for a showdown; the Dragons are arguably the best team in Zeta and perhaps the whole league; I just do not see how Uluru keeps this one closer than three scores. Perfection might not even get Uluru into the playoffs, and a 1-3 finish sure won’t.
Predicted finish: 6-10, 11th
11. Redscape Diplomats: 11th, 5-7
Redscape is in as equally dire a situation as Uluru, but the fact that they’re still clinging to life in the Zeta Playoff Picture after a 1-7 start is something to truly be proud of. Last week, the Diplomats made me look like a genius, as they defeated the Cimmerian Barbarians 38-28, exactly by 10 points as I had claimed they would! This week, the Diplomats will host recently-eliminated-from-the-Playoff-Picture Coney Island Warriors at home; this game will be hotly contested, and after further review, I’m going to change my prediction on this one to a Redscape 7-point win, as Redscape has won 4 straight and the Warriors have lost 6 of 7. In Week 14, the Diplomats fly down to Tasmania to rumble with the Devils; though Redscape may have won 6-in-a-row by this time, I still think that Tasmania should win this game by about 10 points. The following week, the Diplomats host what may be the most dangerous team in Zeta this season, the Tonga Thunderbirds; Tonga will likely glide to a three-score victory or better, but if Redscape comes in having won 6 or, with a big upset, 7 games in a row, this one could perhaps be a shade closer than that. In Week 16, the Diplomats get a desirable Alpha matchup with the Manilla Gorillaz; Redscape truly has the better team here, and they should prevail by a couple of scores. I see Redscape going likely 2-2 to end this season, but only 4-0 *might* be good enough; the Tasmania game still looms large for final seeding, if everything plays out as I think. Still, who could’ve seen this when Redscape was 1-7?
Predicted finish: 7-9, 10th
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I'm very happy to see the support for these, and I’m glad you like them as much as I enjoy learning about the teams and bringing them to you. I may have the chance to start an Alpha soon, but I have quite the busy week at the law school, the busiest I’ll have until exam week. As always, I mean no team any disrespect, but I just call the games as I see them. I wish each team the best of luck in its playoff hunt; I can’t wait to see how this playoff race shakes down. I'll be back with a whole new batch for Pre-Week 14!
Last edited Oct 14, 2008 17:26:35
