Stobie, can we get that hurried/non hurried stat for one QB only (preferably good QB playing in high tier league ones)? That can more accurately show us how much hurry does to passing attack.
Edited by Sean1995 on Aug 30, 2014 14:04:40
Forum > Suggestions > Throwing accuracy when hurried is OP
Just figure it yourself- take 20 minutes- Stobie already said he doesn't want to do that
Xars
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Originally posted by Stobie
I think the idea here is the differential between the hurry comp% and not hurry comp%.
OVERALL > 50.6806.....44.2399 = 6.4407% diff
ROOKIE > 46.0168.....41.4291 = 4.5877% diff
SOPHOMORE > 52.0692.....44.9552 = 7.114% diff
SEASONED > 52.8776.....45.5302 = 7.3474% diff
JOURNEYMAN > 54.4684.....46.5903 = 7.8781% diff
PROFESSIONAL > 52.1502.....45.1542 = 6.951% diff
Most people are doing the math wrong. It's not about the change in completion %, it's the changes in catch %. It's about the effect in achieving a first down. The real difference between the passing and running games is that at the lower tiers, there are a lot more running plays that go for 60 yard TDs than passing plays. Passing plays are catch and get tackled. Running plays are all about getting to the edge and then a long run for a TD.
Math Example:
Overall completion% is 50.68% normal and 44.24% hurried. That's a decrease of 6.44% on a base of 50.68%. That's 12.7% less catches.
There is also the compounded effect of hurries that is not being taken into account.
Assumption:
Assume each catch is for a first down (ie 10+) yards. Most throwing teams throw Medium routes so it's a decent starting point. (Catches greater than 10 yards have little effect on obtaining a first down, while catches of less than 10 yards are the effective equivalent of incompletions.) If the completion rate is 50.68% then there is a 49.32% fail rate. When you compound the fail rate over three plays, it becomes 11.9%. So each series, there is a 88.1% chance of obtaining a first down and a 11.9% chance of not. Any catch less than 10 yards, of which there are a decent amount, lowers the success rate and increases the fail rate.
Now assume that each catch is for a first down, but the completion rate is 44.24%. The fail rate is 55.76%. The compounded fail rate over three plays is 17.33% vs. a success rate of 82.66%.
The fail rate to achieve a first down has increased by 45.6%.
That's the true effect of hurries. Instead of failing to achieve a first down in one out of eight series, it's now one out of six. That's a significant difference.
I think the idea here is the differential between the hurry comp% and not hurry comp%.
OVERALL > 50.6806.....44.2399 = 6.4407% diff
ROOKIE > 46.0168.....41.4291 = 4.5877% diff
SOPHOMORE > 52.0692.....44.9552 = 7.114% diff
SEASONED > 52.8776.....45.5302 = 7.3474% diff
JOURNEYMAN > 54.4684.....46.5903 = 7.8781% diff
PROFESSIONAL > 52.1502.....45.1542 = 6.951% diff
Most people are doing the math wrong. It's not about the change in completion %, it's the changes in catch %. It's about the effect in achieving a first down. The real difference between the passing and running games is that at the lower tiers, there are a lot more running plays that go for 60 yard TDs than passing plays. Passing plays are catch and get tackled. Running plays are all about getting to the edge and then a long run for a TD.
Math Example:
Overall completion% is 50.68% normal and 44.24% hurried. That's a decrease of 6.44% on a base of 50.68%. That's 12.7% less catches.
There is also the compounded effect of hurries that is not being taken into account.
Assumption:
Assume each catch is for a first down (ie 10+) yards. Most throwing teams throw Medium routes so it's a decent starting point. (Catches greater than 10 yards have little effect on obtaining a first down, while catches of less than 10 yards are the effective equivalent of incompletions.) If the completion rate is 50.68% then there is a 49.32% fail rate. When you compound the fail rate over three plays, it becomes 11.9%. So each series, there is a 88.1% chance of obtaining a first down and a 11.9% chance of not. Any catch less than 10 yards, of which there are a decent amount, lowers the success rate and increases the fail rate.
Now assume that each catch is for a first down, but the completion rate is 44.24%. The fail rate is 55.76%. The compounded fail rate over three plays is 17.33% vs. a success rate of 82.66%.
The fail rate to achieve a first down has increased by 45.6%.
That's the true effect of hurries. Instead of failing to achieve a first down in one out of eight series, it's now one out of six. That's a significant difference.
Edited by Xars on Aug 30, 2014 15:08:10
Edited by Xars on Aug 30, 2014 15:06:57
Sean1995
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So, let me try to understand this. 'The fail rate to achieve a first down increases by 45.6%' if three consecutive hurries forced on QB from first down to third down. But you might want also calculate how often that happens. If there is an amazing Dline squad that can force hurried passes 30% of all the pass attemps, the chance for forcing three consecutive hurries is 2.7%.
Also, why does 45.6% on a base of 17.33% matter? It's still only 5.3% in all the 'first down attempts.' So increasing a change to win a lottery from 0.00001% to 0.00002% is amazing because the chance for winning doubles? LOL no. It's still 0.00001% increased chance for winning. Unlikely either way.
Also, why does 45.6% on a base of 17.33% matter? It's still only 5.3% in all the 'first down attempts.' So increasing a change to win a lottery from 0.00001% to 0.00002% is amazing because the chance for winning doubles? LOL no. It's still 0.00001% increased chance for winning. Unlikely either way.
Xars
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Originally posted by Sean1995
So, let me try to understand this. 'The fail rate to achieve a first down increases by 45.6%' if three consecutive hurries forced on QB from first down to third down. But you might want also calculate how often that happens. If there is an amazing Dline squad that can force hurried passes 30% of all the pass attemps, the chance for forcing three consecutive hurries is 2.7%.
Also, why does 45.6% on a base of 17.33% matter? It's still only 5.3% in all the 'first down attempts.' So increasing a change to win a lottery from 0.00001% to 0.00002% is amazing because the chance for winning doubles? LOL no. It's still 0.00001% increased chance for winning. Unlikely either way.
You're looking at the stats wrong. It's about combinations/permutations.
It's actually off a base of 11.9%, so yes it matters.
Lottery calculations are extremely binary. It's not an apples-to-apples comparison because of degree. Yes, you either get a first down or not. But the win weighting is just a first down and not a TD like rushing plays.
So, let me try to understand this. 'The fail rate to achieve a first down increases by 45.6%' if three consecutive hurries forced on QB from first down to third down. But you might want also calculate how often that happens. If there is an amazing Dline squad that can force hurried passes 30% of all the pass attemps, the chance for forcing three consecutive hurries is 2.7%.
Also, why does 45.6% on a base of 17.33% matter? It's still only 5.3% in all the 'first down attempts.' So increasing a change to win a lottery from 0.00001% to 0.00002% is amazing because the chance for winning doubles? LOL no. It's still 0.00001% increased chance for winning. Unlikely either way.
You're looking at the stats wrong. It's about combinations/permutations.
It's actually off a base of 11.9%, so yes it matters.
Lottery calculations are extremely binary. It's not an apples-to-apples comparison because of degree. Yes, you either get a first down or not. But the win weighting is just a first down and not a TD like rushing plays.
Edited by Xars on Aug 30, 2014 15:35:57
Sean1995
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Originally posted by Xars
You're looking at the stats wrong. It's about combinations/permutations.
No, what you did there was about exponents.
You're looking at the stats wrong. It's about combinations/permutations.
No, what you did there was about exponents.
Sean1995
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Originally posted by Xars
You're looking at the stats wrong. It's about combinations/permutations.
It's actually off a base of 11.9%, so yes it matters.
Lottery calculations are extremely binary. It's not an apples-to-apples comparison because of degree. Yes, you either get a first down or not. But the win weighting is just a first down and not a TD like rushing plays.
Actually, according to your assumptions, hurries are really really worse that what stobie's stats are implying.
hurries forced every down (1st, potentially 2nd, and 3rd down) mean : 44.24% + 55.76%*(44.24%)+ 55.76%^2*44.24 = 82.66% to get the first down.
no hurry forced any down (1st, potentially 2nd, and 3rd) : 50.68% + 49.32%*(50.68%) + (49.32%)^2*(50.68%) = 88.00% to get the first down.
And remember, possibility for forcing consecutive hurries decreases exponentially one hurry after another. So the first case is highly unlikely.
It's not simply 1-(.5576)^3 or 1-(.4932)^3. If you successfully complete the first down, your next down isn't second down. There is no need to continue on to next dice rolls. So the above calculations are more accurate.
I still don't understand why you are saying things like a portion of a portion should mean anything.
All I see from my calculations is that if Dline is extremely lucky to force consecutive hurries, it still only forces three-and-out 5.34 times more out of 100 first downs (not drives).
You're looking at the stats wrong. It's about combinations/permutations.
It's actually off a base of 11.9%, so yes it matters.
Lottery calculations are extremely binary. It's not an apples-to-apples comparison because of degree. Yes, you either get a first down or not. But the win weighting is just a first down and not a TD like rushing plays.
Actually, according to your assumptions, hurries are really really worse that what stobie's stats are implying.
hurries forced every down (1st, potentially 2nd, and 3rd down) mean : 44.24% + 55.76%*(44.24%)+ 55.76%^2*44.24 = 82.66% to get the first down.
no hurry forced any down (1st, potentially 2nd, and 3rd) : 50.68% + 49.32%*(50.68%) + (49.32%)^2*(50.68%) = 88.00% to get the first down.
And remember, possibility for forcing consecutive hurries decreases exponentially one hurry after another. So the first case is highly unlikely.
It's not simply 1-(.5576)^3 or 1-(.4932)^3. If you successfully complete the first down, your next down isn't second down. There is no need to continue on to next dice rolls. So the above calculations are more accurate.
I still don't understand why you are saying things like a portion of a portion should mean anything.
All I see from my calculations is that if Dline is extremely lucky to force consecutive hurries, it still only forces three-and-out 5.34 times more out of 100 first downs (not drives).
Edited by Sean1995 on Aug 30, 2014 16:00:30
Edited by Sean1995 on Aug 30, 2014 16:00:03
Edited by Sean1995 on Aug 30, 2014 15:59:31
Sean1995
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Originally posted by TxSteve
Just figure it yourself- take 20 minutes- Stobie already said he doesn't want to do that
Did it. Yukiko Amagi http://glb2.warriorgeneral.com/game/player/37047, currently one of th best QB in glb2, threw 85 hurried passes and completed 49 (57.65%) in the second half of last season (only counted ladder games after day 24), while throwing 484 unhurried passes and completing 277. (57.235%)
Not only was there little difference between completion percentage of hurried and unhurried passes, but Yukiko also had higher pass completion percentage when she was hurried.
Yup, it makes no sense.
Just figure it yourself- take 20 minutes- Stobie already said he doesn't want to do that
Did it. Yukiko Amagi http://glb2.warriorgeneral.com/game/player/37047, currently one of th best QB in glb2, threw 85 hurried passes and completed 49 (57.65%) in the second half of last season (only counted ladder games after day 24), while throwing 484 unhurried passes and completing 277. (57.235%)
Not only was there little difference between completion percentage of hurried and unhurried passes, but Yukiko also had higher pass completion percentage when she was hurried.
Yup, it makes no sense.
Edited by Sean1995 on Aug 30, 2014 17:02:36
Evil Sports Agent
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Originally posted by Sean1995
Did it. Yukiko Amagi http://glb2.warriorgeneral.com/game/player/37047, currently one of th best QB in glb2, threw 85 hurried passes and completed 49 (57.65%) in the second half of last season (only counted ladder games after day 24), while throwing 484 unhurried passes and completing 277. (57.235%)
Not only was there little difference between completion percentage of hurried and unhurried passes, but Yukiko also had higher pass completion percentage when she was hurried.
Yup, it makes no sense.
"I only believe in statistics that I doctored myself"
You pick one QB and cut out the majority of the plays and have your theory confirmed... Stobie delivered the complete data. why would you ignore more than 99.8% of all passes?
Maybe there needs to be a buff for passing in general, but hurries make a difference and like always GLB =/= NFL.
Did it. Yukiko Amagi http://glb2.warriorgeneral.com/game/player/37047, currently one of th best QB in glb2, threw 85 hurried passes and completed 49 (57.65%) in the second half of last season (only counted ladder games after day 24), while throwing 484 unhurried passes and completing 277. (57.235%)
Not only was there little difference between completion percentage of hurried and unhurried passes, but Yukiko also had higher pass completion percentage when she was hurried.
Yup, it makes no sense.
"I only believe in statistics that I doctored myself"
You pick one QB and cut out the majority of the plays and have your theory confirmed... Stobie delivered the complete data. why would you ignore more than 99.8% of all passes?
Maybe there needs to be a buff for passing in general, but hurries make a difference and like always GLB =/= NFL.
Sean1995
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Originally posted by Evil Sports Agent
"I only believe in statistics that I doctored myself"
You pick one QB and cut out the majority of the plays and have your theory confirmed... Stobie delivered the complete data. why would you ignore more than 99.8% of all passes?
Maybe there needs to be a buff for passing in general, but hurries make a difference and like always GLB =/= NFL.
Then obviously you didn't read any of my previous posts. Okay, long thing short, stobie's data can be misleading and doing it on one QB can make things more accurate. That's why I did it.
"I only believe in statistics that I doctored myself"
You pick one QB and cut out the majority of the plays and have your theory confirmed... Stobie delivered the complete data. why would you ignore more than 99.8% of all passes?
Maybe there needs to be a buff for passing in general, but hurries make a difference and like always GLB =/= NFL.
Then obviously you didn't read any of my previous posts. Okay, long thing short, stobie's data can be misleading and doing it on one QB can make things more accurate. That's why I did it.
Xars
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Originally posted by Sean1995
Actually, according to your assumptions, hurries are really really worse that what stobie's stats are implying.
hurries forced every down (1st, potentially 2nd, and 3rd down) mean : 44.24% + 55.76%*(44.24%)+ 55.76%^2*44.24 = 82.66% to get the first down.
no hurry forced any down (1st, potentially 2nd, and 3rd) : 50.68% + 49.32%*(50.68%) + (49.32%)^2*(50.68%) = 88.00% to get the first down.
Your numbers are virtually identical to mine.
Your fail rate for non-hurries is 12.00% while mine was 11.90%.
Your fail rate for hurries is 17.34% while mine is 17.33%.
We are talking about the exact same statistics (virtually) but you keep looking at success rate rather than fail rate.
The success rate change from 88.00% to 82.66% doesn't seem like a lot, but the fail rate change of 12.00% to 17.34% is.
Offenses are supposed to move the ball. There is supposed to be success.
If a Passing Offense gets the ball at their 20, then they have to make 8 successful first downs to score a TD. Since there are some extra yards gained on completions, lets assume 6 is needed.
With a success rate of 88% (or fail rate of 12%), there's 77.44% chance of getting 2 first downs. There's a 68.15% chance of getting 3 first downs. There's a 59.97% chance of getting 4; 52.77% chance of 5 and 46.44% chance of 6.
Now let's factor in hurries. With a success rate of 82.66%, there's a 68.33% chance of getting 2 first downs; 56.48% chance of 3; 46.69% chance of 4; 38.59% chance of 5 and 31.90% chance of 6.
Now lets assume there are 16 possessions by the Offense in a game. If they all start on the 20 yard line, then the expected TD rate is 46.44% x 16 = 7.43 TDs for normal and 31.90% x 16 = 5.104 TDs for hurried throws.
That's a 31.3% reduction in Touchdowns.
Now each drive isn't 80 yards, but then again neither is each catch always 10+ yards. There are also sacks which yield negative yards and significantly reduce the chance of getting a first down, particularly third down sacks which are pretty much a guarantee of a fail.
So do hurries matter as they are currently in the game? Yes. Do they matter enough? That depends on the individual's judgement.
Actually, according to your assumptions, hurries are really really worse that what stobie's stats are implying.
hurries forced every down (1st, potentially 2nd, and 3rd down) mean : 44.24% + 55.76%*(44.24%)+ 55.76%^2*44.24 = 82.66% to get the first down.
no hurry forced any down (1st, potentially 2nd, and 3rd) : 50.68% + 49.32%*(50.68%) + (49.32%)^2*(50.68%) = 88.00% to get the first down.
Your numbers are virtually identical to mine.
Your fail rate for non-hurries is 12.00% while mine was 11.90%.
Your fail rate for hurries is 17.34% while mine is 17.33%.
We are talking about the exact same statistics (virtually) but you keep looking at success rate rather than fail rate.
The success rate change from 88.00% to 82.66% doesn't seem like a lot, but the fail rate change of 12.00% to 17.34% is.
Offenses are supposed to move the ball. There is supposed to be success.
If a Passing Offense gets the ball at their 20, then they have to make 8 successful first downs to score a TD. Since there are some extra yards gained on completions, lets assume 6 is needed.
With a success rate of 88% (or fail rate of 12%), there's 77.44% chance of getting 2 first downs. There's a 68.15% chance of getting 3 first downs. There's a 59.97% chance of getting 4; 52.77% chance of 5 and 46.44% chance of 6.
Now let's factor in hurries. With a success rate of 82.66%, there's a 68.33% chance of getting 2 first downs; 56.48% chance of 3; 46.69% chance of 4; 38.59% chance of 5 and 31.90% chance of 6.
Now lets assume there are 16 possessions by the Offense in a game. If they all start on the 20 yard line, then the expected TD rate is 46.44% x 16 = 7.43 TDs for normal and 31.90% x 16 = 5.104 TDs for hurried throws.
That's a 31.3% reduction in Touchdowns.
Now each drive isn't 80 yards, but then again neither is each catch always 10+ yards. There are also sacks which yield negative yards and significantly reduce the chance of getting a first down, particularly third down sacks which are pretty much a guarantee of a fail.
So do hurries matter as they are currently in the game? Yes. Do they matter enough? That depends on the individual's judgement.
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