Warrior General Games

in my opinion if a player fumbles once he should be LESS likely to fumble again, regardless of his confidence. The majority of the time in football the reason a player fumbles is because he got careless and failed to tuck the ball away properly. Once a player fumbles he is going to be extra sure he tucks it away again so it doesn't happen again, which is going to decrease the chance that he fumbles. How confident you are really should play too much of a role there.

Now, interceptions is a completely different story, and confidence should play a huge role there.

I find it really funny how some people claim to KNOW certain things about this game, or CLAIM certain things in game mechanics that are not openly disclosed or confirmed by bort while only know part of the equation.

For fumbles... do you know the builds and tactics of the people hitting you? Do you know the exact % to fumble for every tackle you are in?

I'm guessing no... which means there is no real way you can prove that it's a statistical anomaly. How do you know it wasn't just bad luck? Because it happens all the time? Maybe it is something to do with the things I mentioned above...

and for picks, you have to realize that the sim makes you throw some pretty stupid passes, in real life there'd be 5-6 picks a game with the throws the QB makes, but whatever. For every throw do you know the % that it will get picked? Do you know the stats and tactics of the person getting the int?

Hell do you even know that it's not some sort of thing like streaky, or as Bort mentioned that he would like the idea of an x-factor style streaky where players have good and bad games?

Please don't claim the things, which you can't logically back them up due to an extreme lack of data. Well, I suppose that means you are better off just going with personal attacks, so I guess it's time to say I'm an idiot, that I know nothing, that you've already SHOWED me, that I need to just leave, I'm biased, etc etc

*sigh*

The ones who think there is no issue, and things should remain status quo, are the ones who haven't been bent over by the sim... yet.

Those who see logic in the original poster's issues have seen it first hand.

I'm in the latter group. I've been there and it sucks.

Again - 240 pass attempts in the regular season, 9 in field general, and 71 confidence. I threw ONE pick all season. I threw almost back to back picks yesterday after our team had already committed 3 turnovers.

Our team committed 5 in one game after committing only 15 all season.

If builds were an issue, our team would be turnover prone. It was not. Is 71 confidence not enough (also keep in mind the 9 in FG and motivational speaker which our team has invested in)?

If you are not a believer that there is a problem, just wait until the turnover death spiral affects your team.

Originally posted by markm6770
*sigh*

The ones who think there is no issue, and things should remain status quo, are the ones who haven't been bent over by the sim... yet.

Those who see logic in the original poster's issues have seen it first hand.

I'm in the latter group. I've been there and it sucks.

Again - 240 pass attempts in the regular season, 9 in field general, and 71 confidence. I threw ONE pick all season. I threw almost back to back picks yesterday after our team had already committed 3 turnovers.

Our team committed 5 in one game after committing only 15 all season.

If builds were an issue, our team would be turnover prone. It was not. Is 71 confidence not enough (also keep in mind the 9 in FG and motivational speaker which our team has invested in)?

If you are not a believer that there is a problem, just wait until the turnover death spiral affects your team.


so you got bad luck in the sim?

believe me I've see it all... I've been on a team where we lost like 5 games by 3 points or less... usually due to random fluke stuff... or losing games to bugs etc.

also don't forget you are pulling 1 game out of a pool of games. In order to show trends you have to have many. Not to mention the vast number of unknowns.

So what I'm saying is: claiming something with one games proof, in a game that incorporates some form of randomness (in the form of rolls for tackles, fumbles, ints etc) is not something you can really do. To show something exists you need to either have bort confirm it, show it in the code, or show that it was not statistically just one of the lower end outliers (which by the way is impossible since there's about 100 unknown factors).

Everyone wants to complain when they have 1 bad game... guess what... I've been screwed over by the "luck of the sim" so much we were joking that bort hates me and would alter the sim to screw me over. But I accept that it's part game planning, part player builds, and part luck. You said before that you were not a turnover prone team... so seems like you have good builds... guess what, even good builds get bad rolls some times

Originally posted by butler312
in my opinion if a player fumbles once he should be LESS likely to fumble again, regardless of his confidence. The majority of the time in football the reason a player fumbles is because he got careless and failed to tuck the ball away properly. Once a player fumbles he is going to be extra sure he tucks it away again so it doesn't happen again, which is going to decrease the chance that he fumbles. How confident you are really should play too much of a role there.

Now, interceptions is a completely different story, and confidence should play a huge role there.

Ok, but what if a RB tucks the ball next time & still coughs it up because the tackler is just an out & out monster?
You don't think there should be some sort of morale & confidence hit?

You see players go through patches of Drops, Fumbles, and Interceptions in football.
Baseball sees hitting streaks & slumps, error streaks, and the like.

Originally posted by Chysil
Originally posted by markm6770

*sigh*

The ones who think there is no issue, and things should remain status quo, are the ones who haven't been bent over by the sim... yet.

Those who see logic in the original poster's issues have seen it first hand.

I'm in the latter group. I've been there and it sucks.

Again - 240 pass attempts in the regular season, 9 in field general, and 71 confidence. I threw ONE pick all season. I threw almost back to back picks yesterday after our team had already committed 3 turnovers.

Our team committed 5 in one game after committing only 15 all season.

If builds were an issue, our team would be turnover prone. It was not. Is 71 confidence not enough (also keep in mind the 9 in FG and motivational speaker which our team has invested in)?

If you are not a believer that there is a problem, just wait until the turnover death spiral affects your team.


so you got bad luck in the sim?

believe me I've see it all... I've been on a team where we lost like 5 games by 3 points or less... usually due to random fluke stuff... or losing games to bugs etc.

also don't forget you are pulling 1 game out of a pool of games. In order to show trends you have to have many. Not to mention the vast number of unknowns.

So what I'm saying is: claiming something with one games proof, in a game that incorporates some form of randomness (in the form of rolls for tackles, fumbles, ints etc) is not something you can really do. To show something exists you need to either have bort confirm it, show it in the code, or show that it was not statistically just one of the lower end outliers (which by the way is impossible since there's about 100 unknown factors).

Everyone wants to complain when they have 1 bad game... guess what... I've been screwed over by the "luck of the sim" so much we were joking that bort hates me and would alter the sim to screw me over. But I accept that it's part game planning, part player builds, and part luck. You said before that you were not a turnover prone team... so seems like you have good builds... guess what, even good builds get bad rolls some times




You skipped my example--the short version being NINE picks in a single game when the QB in question had thrown only 15 over 500+ attempts during the regular season. And that this performance came against a team that we had beaten during the regular season. And the once the NINE picks were thrown, the backup QB came in and proceeded to throw a TENTH one.

Again, its fine to say "The sim requires more confidence during the playoffs"--its probably a factually correct statement. What ISN'T factually correct is to pretend that no "death spiral" is present in the sim itself--playoff or regular season. Theres too many examples out there that prove it to exist. Its affects aren't realistic and no amount of "fix your build" advice is going to remove it from existance.

I didn't skip it, I just didn't see it. Mind posting a link to the game so i can look at it?

Also how much confidence does the QB have?

Originally posted by Chysil
I didn't skip it, I just didn't see it. Mind posting a link to the game so i can look at it?

Also how much confidence does the QB have?


No offense, but do you realize what you just typed? You asked "how much confidence" does a QB have that BEAT the SAME team during the regular season, lead his team to the PLAYOFFS, threw only 15 picks in over 500+ passes, but threw NINE in the opening round of a playoff game! What would it matter if I told you he had only ___ confidence (whatever the minimum for his level was at the time)? He had more than that, but I'm using this to illustrate a point. There's a gaping hole in the sim when instead of saying "Confidence is important, especially during crunch times" it instead amounts to "NINE picks in a game is a reasonable result if a QB doesn't have adequate confidence". There's nothing reasonable about a "death spiral" of that magnitude being possible, not if we're pretending to sim real football.

Also, I'm not sure I can find the game link, but I'll look. It was from several seasons back.


EDIT TO ADD: here's the game: http://goallineblitz.com/game/game.pl?game_id=71981

Originally posted by Chysil
I didn't skip it, I just didn't see it. Mind posting a link to the game so i can look at it?

Also how much confidence does the QB have?

Here is the real question: How much better did the guys that picked off your QB get since their 1st match up?

Originally posted by Skoll Wolfrun
Originally posted by Chysil

I didn't skip it, I just didn't see it. Mind posting a link to the game so i can look at it?

Also how much confidence does the QB have?

Here is the real question: How much better did the guys that picked off your QB get since their 1st match up?


NINE.

That's the only word that matters. I'm not for a moment saying I'm adamantly right and the rest of you are adamantly wrong. I'm simply pointing out that the entire discussion hinges on whether one believes that NINE picks is a "reasonable" outcome for a PLAYOFF team's QB to throw. This wasn't a 0-255 performance by a gutjob and/or CPU quarterback.

So to reframe the discussion (because I don't want this thread to devolve into a debate about a playoff game from many seasons back--we already had that when it occured), what we really must decide is this: Is the current possibility of a "death spiral" that results in unrealistic negative numbers something that is coded into the game, and needs to be repaired? Or does the "death spiral" not exist and/or is it something that can be fixed by merely adjusting the build?

I personally don't think the build can completely fix it, since the odds of the NEXT turnover seem to be disproportionately linked to the PREVIOUS turnover (via morale/confidence/coding/voodooo) rather than the stand-alone build.

So....what was the counter argument to "try putting more than 20 into Confidence?" Because that's the answer.

Originally posted by Larry Roadgrader

I personally don't think the build can completely fix it, since the odds of the NEXT turnover seem to be disproportionately linked to the PREVIOUS turnover (via morale/confidence/coding/voodooo) rather than the stand-alone build.

Dude, you are my hero. Very eloquently stated.

Originally posted by Jed
So....what was the counter argument to "try putting more than 20 into Confidence?" Because that's the answer.

In your opinion, that's the answer.

Some believe it's an inadequate one--that too much of the probability of turning the ball over is related to previous turnovers rather than baseline build.

Originally posted by Larry Roadgrader
I'm certain the OP has some merit. I personally witnessed a QB go an entire 16 game schedule (back when schedules were more competitive than they are today) and throw only 15 picks spread out over more than 500+ passes. He then proceeded to throw NINE picks in our opening playoff game in a little over 30 passes...before giving way to the backup QB who threw a TENTH. We had beaten that particular team earlier in the regular season.

Its fine (and probably true) that many wish to believe that "Confidence matters bigtime in the playoffs". But the current coding amounts to the chance for a unrealistic "death spiral" to occur where players put up ridiculously unrealistic amounts of turnovers, and I'm pretty certain that "death spiral" effect is due in part to what the original poster would refer to as the "multiplicative effect of previous turnovers upon the chance of rolling future turnovers". Something is amiss.

You wouldn't be talking about that QB who was built more to run a endurance marathon, now would you? Had stamina almost as high as str and nothing invested at all into confidence?
I remember this thread very vividly.

Originally posted by driftinggrifter
Originally posted by Larry Roadgrader

I'm certain the OP has some merit. I personally witnessed a QB go an entire 16 game schedule (back when schedules were more competitive than they are today) and throw only 15 picks spread out over more than 500+ passes. He then proceeded to throw NINE picks in our opening playoff game in a little over 30 passes...before giving way to the backup QB who threw a TENTH. We had beaten that particular team earlier in the regular season.

Its fine (and probably true) that many wish to believe that "Confidence matters bigtime in the playoffs". But the current coding amounts to the chance for a unrealistic "death spiral" to occur where players put up ridiculously unrealistic amounts of turnovers, and I'm pretty certain that "death spiral" effect is due in part to what the original poster would refer to as the "multiplicative effect of previous turnovers upon the chance of rolling future turnovers". Something is amiss.

You wouldn't be talking about that QB who was built more to run a endurance marathon, now would you? Had stamina almost as high as str and nothing invested at all into confidence?
I remember this thread very vividly.


*laughs* That's because it was a very vivid thread!

Again, I'm not suggesting that the build was perfect. Instead I'm agreeing with the original poster that the build seems to be a minor factor and the presence of previous turnovers a MAJOR factor in determining new the outcome of new turnover rolls. Would more _______ (insert "confidence", or "strength" or whatever one's pet theory is) have helped? Sure. Would it have been enough in and of itself to counter the beginning of a "death spiral"? In my opinion, no.