Originally posted by jdwillemin
You may want to redo that. Snakes beat Niagara convincingly, held their top rusher to 33yds and put double the stats that they did in every aspect of the game. How did you derive that?
It's purely statistical, so the change in rankings is based on the factors I consider, and the weightings to each. With other weightings, for example, (such as an increased weighting of margin of victory), Nova Scotia could have stayed above Niagara, but I had to pick some weights, and the ones I did gave this result.
Not to sound like an appologist, but here's just a run-down on how the current formula calculated the power rankings jump by the Assassins over the Snakes in the power rankings this week, despite the head-to-head win by Nova Scotia.
The teams were already very close in score, and although Niagara had a higer strength of schedule value, Nova Scotia still held an advantage largely due to a better margin of victory value (note: not a straight comparison of PF and PA, but is based on that), and by holding a quality win for the victory over Niagara. This week, with Niagara beating Lancaster by 26 and Nova Scotia beating Hamilton by 16, both teams had SOS values that increased, although Niagara's increased more due to Lancaster currently being rated as a better team. Also, with the margins by which the teams won, Niagara's margin of victory value increased while Nova Scotia's decreased. Nova Scotia still holds the advantage in margin of victory value, but it's closer than it was a week ago. Finally, Niagara's win against Lancaster gave them a quality win (which applies for all wins to teams with same or better record), so both teams now have 1 quality win. (Note: Quality wins can change, so if Lancaster loses and Niagara wins next week, the Assassins will lose their quality win).
Anyhow, all of those factors combined to give Niagara a statistical advantage of 0.019. There are definitely other factors I could consider in the rankings but, candidly, the formula is already complex enough and I don't really want to complicate it further. So, it's the best I have, but certainly no substitute for subjective, human debate.