Warrior General Games

Originally posted by Sean1995
Don't get carried away. Even if what I said there isn't taken into account, linemen need to force 17.8 hurries to make one incomplete pass. That's equivalent to one Knocked Loose. Imagine that.


Whats the ratio, you would like to see?

Originally posted by Evil Sports Agent
Whats the ratio, you would like to see?

I will try not to give a specific number or anything, as it get can controversial and all. All I know is that hurries need to be more penalizing and the ratio should somewhat be realistic. See the NFL stat Steve provided.

Per Steve Request..

Ran the same script but grouped by Tier ID of the offensive team with restrictions that they only played teams of the same tier thus same skill level and no CPU teams allowed.

OVERALL

TYPE.....NOHURRY.....HURRY

Times Pass.....329511.....47916
Complete %.....50.6806.....44.2399

Fell Incomplete %.....12.9261.....14.0916
Dropped Pass %.....24.8648.....25.3537
Unable Secure %.....40.0684.....41.6049
Intercepted %.....1.2113.....1.1678
Deflected %.....12.1559.....13.0025
Knocked Loose %.....5.4936.....4.7197

ROOKIE

TYPE.....NOHURRY.....HURRY

Times Pass.....104219.....14205
Complete %.....46.0168.....41.4291

Fell Incomplete %.....10.8007.....13.2212
Dropped Pass %.....31.5899.....31.8630
Unable Secure %.....41.3412.....43.2452
Intercepted %.....0.5982.....0.7572
Deflected %.....5.3647.....6.7909
Knocked Loose %.....4.4601.....4.0986

SOPHOMORE

TYPE.....NOHURRY.....HURRY

Times Pass.....77610.....11487
Complete %.....52.0692.....44.9552

Fell Incomplete %.....13.4835.....14.8347
Dropped Pass %.....28.7973.....28.9103
Unable Secure %.....38.4410.....39.6015
Intercepted %.....1.0276.....1.0280
Deflected %.....9.3032.....10.9125
Knocked Loose %.....5.5667.....4.6813

SEASONED

TYPE.....NOHURRY.....HURRY

Times Pass.....48527.....8289
Complete %.....52.8776.....45.5302

Fell Incomplete %.....14.0890.....14.5515
Dropped Pass %.....21.5821.....23.1451
Unable Secure %.....41.0486.....41.7054
Intercepted %.....1.3336.....1.2403
Deflected %.....14.8278.....14.4629
Knocked Loose %.....5.6174.....4.7619

JOURNEYMAN

TYPE.....NOHURRY.....HURRY

Times Pass.....37393.....5763
Complete %.....54.4684.....46.5903

Fell Incomplete %.....13.6777.....14.1519
Dropped Pass %.....17.6413.....18.5276
Unable Secure %.....42.5601.....39.1739
Intercepted %.....1.4295.....1.6472
Deflected %.....19.5257.....18.5087
Knocked Loose %.....5.1007.....6.7585

PROFESSIONAL

TYPE.....NOHURRY.....HURRY

Times Pass.....61762.....8172
Complete %.....52.1502.....45.1542

Fell Incomplete %.....14.3125.....14.4801
Dropped Pass %.....14.9388.....15.7742
Unable Secure %.....39.5973.....40.6292
Intercepted %.....2.1230.....1.8742
Deflected %.....21.3785.....21.5306
Knocked Loose %.....6.3477.....5.6225

Editted out some guesses I had that were immediately proven WRONG by stobie's research.



but:


One of the numbers that really stands out to me is the INT number. Interceptions 1.26% (1.30 if hurried). What is that - a thousand hurries might lead to one extra INT? (my math skills are awful - forgive me if I'm off by a lot)


And since we so often compare passing to running:
see this thread: http://glb2.warriorgeneral.com/game/forum/thread/5196873

Where folks argue that fumbling 3.9% of your touches is reasonable even if you have 96 carry grip, 84 toughness; 89 conditioning and 53 heart (and 100 power running)

So most tiers have 7-8% difference in completion % Vs the 18% difference steve said was in the NFL...not a huge difference really especially when you look at the non hurried completion % at GLB2 52-55% Vs NFL 65%...with that taken into account it looks about right to me...but then i run a pass only team so maybe bias...maybe

You're a wonderful human being Stobie!

Certainly seems that the completion % drops fairly consistently no matter what the tier - 4%-8%


Seems pressure has very little affect on drops (so likely no pass tech penalty)

In many cases the INT rate is lower on hurries - supporting Galithors point that (sorry for paraphrasing you) routes are cut off / passes are made before the defender is ready

Likely the same with deflection rate which gets lower on hurries in Journey & seasoned

Surely knocked loose has no impact from a hurry?

Actually the overall INT numbers got even lower when the requirement of 'same tier' was added.

no hurry with hurry
Intercepted %.....1.2113.....1.1678

I think the idea here is the differential between the hurry comp% and not hurry comp%.

OVERALL > 50.6806.....44.2399 = 6.4407% diff
ROOKIE > 46.0168.....41.4291 = 4.5877% diff
SOPHOMORE > 52.0692.....44.9552 = 7.114% diff
SEASONED > 52.8776.....45.5302 = 7.3474% diff
JOURNEYMAN > 54.4684.....46.5903 = 7.8781% diff
PROFESSIONAL > 52.1502.....45.1542 = 6.951% diff

I think this indicates clearly that hurries effect completions to the effect of 4.5877 - 7.8781

What I actually find astounding is the perceived effect of what a hurry dictates IRL. I have a perception of what it means, but in reality do we have these numbers broken down IRL of hurried passes and completion percentages when QB is hurried?

NFL completion percentage last season was 61.2153% obviously GLB already is way behind the META on that front.
In addition NFL had a 2.8% interception percentage which we are closer there but still behind.
What I can't find is the hurry % in the NFL but food for thought is that they had a 6.7% sack so in the NFL you get just over a sack in every 20 pass attempts. I would be willing to bet, GLB numbers are less in this area as well.

Here are my thoughts on the whole ordeal. Completion percentage is lower in GLB, the number of hurries and sacks are probably lower thus having a less effect on the number. I would imagine if you increase the probability of hurries/sacks then you increase the differentials, but to do that you would need to also increase the actual completion percentage to make up the difference since we are way behind the META in that category anyway.

I am more interested to see if those stats are different with a defender who has high intimidation that got the hurry (70+ intim) versus the defender who got the hurry who has little to no intimidation.

Originally posted by TxSteve
Actually the overall INT numbers got even lower when the requirement of 'same tier' was added.

no hurry with hurry
Intercepted %.....1.2113.....1.1678



If we read what hurry will do it will lessen the pass quality which in turn hurts the defender's chance to pass any catching rolls as well. This explains the lesser INT % as well, if defense was not effected by this I believe your numbers would go up.

that could be true...but worse teams with worse QB's will lower both the "hurried" and "non-hurried" stats.

one thing we lose sight of here is how important builds are -- and in the case of the passing game - the build of the QB and the build of the receivers.


I won't have time and am leaving town in the AM - but it wouldn't be that hard to figure out a QB like Cleveland or Yuki's completion % while hurried...and while not -- and that would say something (ie - hurries can be ignored with a good enough build)

Originally posted by TxSteve
that could be true...but worse teams with worse QB's will lower both the "hurried" and "non-hurried" stats.


Haha of course, Steve. Bad QBs still throw hurried and not hurried. It either of those or a sack. I am saying that they are hurried more frequently (higher proportion of hurried passes). So the stobie's stat on 'hurried pass' section is more representative of worse teams' passing stat than it is of better teams.

Originally posted by TxSteve
that could be true...but worse teams with worse QB's will lower both the "hurried" and "non-hurried" stats.

one thing we lose sight of here is how important builds are -- and in the case of the passing game - the build of the QB and the build of the receivers.


I won't have time and am leaving town in the AM - but it wouldn't be that hard to figure out a QB like Cleveland or Yuki's completion % while hurried...and while not -- and that would say something (ie - hurries can be ignored with a good enough build)

I obviously could run against a certain team in addition with the query I built but that imo is getting to a scouting level of detail that I don't want to expose, nor will it probably give any true indication unless those players/teams give me permission.